Showing posts with label US Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Market. Show all posts

Nov 19, 2020

US market | Futures Indicator: Dow futures extend losses following Wednesday's sell-off

 

Fred Imbert, Jesse Pound


U.S. stock futures traded slightly lower early Thursday on the heels of a market slide a day earlier as a recent rally lost steam.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 62 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Futures were off their lows, however, after the release of preliminary data showed University of Oxford and AstraZeneca’s vaccine candidate triggered a similar immune response among all adults.

Weakness in the futures follows a Wednesday session that finished on a sour note. After bouncing around the flat line for most of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned south in the final hour of trading to register a loss of 345 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 also dropped 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.8%.

The slide for stocks accompanied mixed news about the coronavirus crisis. On Wednesday morning, Pfizer announced that a final analysis showed that its vaccine candidate was 95% effective against Covid-19. However, New York City announced during the afternoon that it was closing schools due to a rising positivity rate.

“This is the perfect day that describes what we’re calling the ‘Covid air pocket.’ We have a linearity issue, which is that you can’t get there from here without going through a lot of bad news and some slowdown in the real economy,” Alicia Levine, chief strategist at BNY Investment Management, said on Thursday’s “Closing Bell.”

Despite Wednesday’s struggle, Wall Street has still seen a strong November. The S&P 500 has gained 9.1% month to date, while the small-cap Russell 2000 hit an intraday record high on Wednesday.

The strength for small caps has been part of an outperformance for cyclical stocks in recent weeks after growth-oriented tech stock fueled much of the market’s rally from its March lows.

“You see the market really kind of wanting to move in one direction, and then I think the vaccine news was certainly a catalyst to accelerate that a little bit. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see that trade persist for some time,” Jeff Mills, chief investment officer at Bryn Mawr Trust, said about the rotation into cyclical names.

“That being said, I do think the leadership in the market could be volatile over the next couple of months because you’re going to be battling Covid case increases and incrementally better news relative to the vaccine,” Mills continued.

Thursday morning will bring another look at how the labor market recovery is faring amid rising cases of Covid-19. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the reading for initial jobless claims to come in at 710,000, roughly flat compared with the prior week.

Nov 18, 2020

US Market | Futures Indictor: Dow futures rise 130 points as stocks look set to resume gains following a pause in the rally.

 

Yun Li, Maggie Fitzgerald


U.S. stock futures bounced on Wednesday a day after a pause in the market’s rally to records.

Dow Jones Industrial average futures rose 130 points, or 0.4%. The move indicated an opening gain of about 130 points. Futures for the S&P 500 added 0.3%. Nasdaq-100 futures were slightly higher.

Here’s what got futures moving in the positive direction Wednesday morning:

  • Pfizer released the final data on its vaccine candidate with BioNTech and it was even better than the initial data. The companies said the vaccine was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19 and fended off severe infection in the trial.
  • Dow-member Boeing jumped 4% in premarket trading as the company was set to win FAA approval to fly the 737 MAX again, according to Reuters.
  • Target shares rose 2% after the retailer’s third quarter earnings topped estimates because of booming digital sales.
  • Lowe’s shares dropped 6% after the home improvement retailer reported third-quarter earnings and a profit outlook slightly short of estimates.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 167 points, dragged down by Walgreens, Home Depot and Walmart. The S&P 500 lost 0.5%. Tuesday’s session was the first time in three days the Dow and S&P 500 fell, following their record closes on Monday.

The Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, dipping just 0.2%. Tesla shares popped more than 8% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said that the electric vehicle company will join the S&P 500. 

Small-caps continued to outperform on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 gaining 0.37% to close at another record.

Stocks are having a strong month on the back of positive news from two U.S. drugmakers about successful Covid-19 vaccines. The Dow is up more than 12% and the S&P 500 is up more than 10% in November. The Nasdaq Composite is up more than 9%, lagging as investors ditch technology shares of cyclical plays.

“For the most part, the economy has been recovering faster than many expected, as consumer spending has held up quite well throughout the crisis. Much of this can be seen through consumer spending habits, where the pandemic has caused consumers to shift spending away from service-oriented products and into to more goods-related products,” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, said in a note.

“While this has been beneficial to the economy overall, it has created a bifurcated recovery, as some sectors of the economy continue to be extremely depressed,” he added.

Equities are rising amid a backdrop of worsening Covid-19 infections in the U.S. The U.S. seven-day average of daily new Covid-19 infections surpassed 150,000 for the first time on Monday, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. Retail sales came in lower-than-expected for October as millions of Americans lost their unemployment benefits amid the surge in cases.

A slew of other retailers report quarterly earnings on Wednesday, with chipmaker Nvidia, Copa Holdings and L Brands set to release earnings following Wednesday’s session.

Nov 17, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator ( Update): Dow futures extend losses, now down 250 points after weaker-than-expected retail sales

 

Fred Imbert


Dow Jones Industrial average and S&P 500 futures declined on Tuesday morning after the two major market benchmarks closed at record levels.

Dow futures fell 250 points, or 0.8%. The move implied an opening loss of about 270 points. S&P 500 futures slid 0.7%. Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 0.1%.

Here’s what traders were watching Tuesday:

  • Shares of pharmacy owner CVS Health and Dow member Walgreens Boots Alliance dropped in premarket trading after Amazon launched a pharmacy business, which allows free delivery of medications for Prime members. Walgreens shares dropped 10% and CVS lost 6%. Amazon shares popped 2.6% in premarket trading.
  • Tesla shares jumped more than 13% in premarket trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the electric car maker would join the S&P 500 index, effective Dec. 21. It was a long anticipated move for the surging stock. Before Monday, the shares had already more than quadrupled this year.
  • Home Depot fell after its earnings report Monday morning even after saying sales surged 24% last quarter.
  • Walmart shares gained 2% in premarket trading after earnings topped expectations on soaring e-commerce sales.

On Monday, the Dow and S&P 500 posted all-time closing highs. The Dow also notched an intraday record. Those gains came after Moderna released trial data showing its coronavirus vaccine was more than 94% effective, further raising expectations of a sharp economic recovery.

That marked the second positive announcement related to a coronavirus vaccine in a week. Pfizer and BioNTech said Nov. 9 that their Covid-19 vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective among participants in a late-stage trial.

Value stocks led the advance on Monday, building on their strong gains from last week. The iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) jumped 1.9%, while its growth counterpart closed higher by just 0.5%.

“Value and smaller companies typically have more leverage to economic recoveries so a vaccine that would remove the weight of COVID-19 off the economy is a distinct positive,” wrote Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Stone Investment Partners. “Time will tell if this reversal in trends proves durable or starts “makin’ the tears rain down like a monsoon” for value proponents like the many recent false starts.”

The recent outperformance in value stocks comes even as the number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, dampening the country’s near-term economic outlook.

More than 1 million cases were confirmed in less than a week in the U.S., bring the country’s total to more than 11 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Data from The Covid Tracking Project also showed U.S. coronavirus-related hospitalizations have risen to nearly 70,000.

“The near-term COVID backdrop remains bleak with exploding cases, rising hospitalizations, and additional mitigation measures,” wrote Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge. “But the broader tape is willing to overlook all this for the time being.”

US Market | Futures Indicator: Stock futures slip a day after the Dow and S&P 500 close at records

 

Fred Imbert


Dow Jones Industrial average and S&P 500 futures declined on Tuesday morning after the two major market benchmarks closed at record levels.

Dow futures fell 168 points, or 0.5%. The move implied an opening loss of about 160 points. S&P 500 futures slid 0.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 0.1%.

Here’s what traders were watching Tuesday:

  • Shares of pharmacy owner CVS Health and Dow member Walgreens Boots Alliance dropped in premarket trading after Amazon launched a pharmacy business, which allows free delivery of medications for Prime members. Walgreens shares dropped 10% and CVS lost 6%. Amazon shares were slightly higher.
  • Tesla shares jumped more than 12% in premarket trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the electric car maker would join the S&P 500 index, effective Dec. 21. It was a long anticipated move for the surging stock. Before Monday, the shares had already more than quadrupled this year.
  • Home Depot fell after its earnings report Monday morning even after saying sales surged 24% last quarter.
  • Walmart shares gained 2% in premarket trading after earnings topped expectations on soaring e-commerce sales.

On Monday, the Dow and S&P 500 posted all-time closing highs. The Dow also notched an intraday record. Those gains came after Moderna released trial data showing its coronavirus vaccine was more than 94% effective, further raising expectations of a sharp economic recovery.

That marked the second positive announcement related to a coronavirus vaccine in a week. Pfizer and BioNTech said Nov. 9 that their Covid-19 vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective among participants in a late-stage trial.

Value stocks led the advance on Monday, building on their strong gains from last week. The iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) jumped 1.9%, while its growth counterpart closed higher by just 0.5%.

“Value and smaller companies typically have more leverage to economic recoveries so a vaccine that would remove the weight of COVID-19 off the economy is a distinct positive,” wrote Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Stone Investment Partners. “Time will tell if this reversal in trends proves durable or starts “makin’ the tears rain down like a monsoon” for value proponents like the many recent false starts.”

The recent outperformance in value stocks comes even as the number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, dampening the country’s near-term economic outlook.

More than 1 million cases were confirmed in less than a week in the U.S., bring the country’s total to more than 11 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Data from The Covid Tracking Project also showed U.S. coronavirus-related hospitalizations have risen to nearly 70,000.

“The near-term COVID backdrop remains bleak with exploding cases, rising hospitalizations, and additional mitigation measures,” wrote Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge. “But the broader tape is willing to overlook all this for the time being.”

Nov 16, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator: Dow futures jump 500 points as Moderna says it has a highly effective Covid vaccine as well

 

Fred Imbert


Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Source: NYSE

U.S. stock futures jumped Monday after Moderna said preliminary trial data showed its coronavirus vaccine was more than 94% effective.

The promising announcement makes the Massachusetts-based biotech firm the second drugmaker to say it has a potentially effective vaccine.

Similar trial results last week from Pfizer and BioNTech drove investors into underperforming names dependent on a vaccine reopening the economy. The companies said at the time that their candidate was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among participants.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 500 points, or 1.7%. The move implied an opening gain of more than 500 points. S&P 500 futures rose 1.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained just 0.1%.

The Dow is just about 72 points shy of a record close. Last week, the Dow climbed 4% for its second-straight positive week. The S&P 500 posted a record closing high on Friday and notched a one-week gain of 2.2%. The Nasdaq Composite lagged, however, sliding 0.6%.

Those moves came as traders piled into beaten-down value names at the expense of high-flying growth stocks amid positive vaccine news. The iShares Russell 1000 Value exchange-traded fund (IWD) rallied 5.7% last week while its growth counterpart, the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) slid 1.2%.

The news sparked hope for an economic recovery, thus making travel stocks such as United Airlines and Carnival more attractive. United and Carnival rallied 12.4% and 15.9%, respectively, last week.

United was up another 6% in premarket trading Monday, while Carnival was up another 7%.

“The announcement of an effective Covid-19 vaccine by Pfizer/BioNTech last week was so important that we almost forget that there has just been a U.S. presidential election,” TS Lombard analysts Steven Blitz and Andrea Cicione wrote in a note.

“The vaccine turns what could have been a prolonged crisis into something closer to a natural disaster (large shock, swift recovery),” they said. “Without an effective vaccine, current EPS consensus expectations (pointing to a return to trend by the end of next year) would be on the optimistic side. But with one, they may actually come to pass.”

Traders were also excited after Moderna said its vaccine remains stable at 36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit, the temperature of a standard home or medical refrigerator, for up to 30 days. It can be stored for up to six months at negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit.

By comparison, Pfizer’s vaccine requires a storage temperature of minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit.

To be sure, the number of coronavirus cases are still rising, thus threatening the prospects of a swift economic recovery.

More than 11 million Covid-19 infections have been confirmed in the U.S., according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Data from the COVID Tracking Project also showed that a record of more than 68,500 people in the U.S. are hospitalized with the coronavirus.

Dan Russo, chief market strategist at Chaikin Analytics, thinks the market can weather this latest spike in coronavirus cases, however.

“it seems that investors are more focused on vaccine news and are willing to look past the near-term spike in cases,” he said in a post. “If this becomes a cause for concern for investors, it will become apparent on the charts and risk management will take over.”

Nov 12, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator: S&P 500 futures are flat as vaccine market rally pauses

 

Fred Imbert, Jesse Pound


Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

NYSE

U.S. stock futures were mixed in early Thursday morning trading as markets continued to churn following big gains earlier in the week.

Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 203 points, or 0.7%. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures were marginally higher.

The move in futures came after the market bucked its recent trend on Wednesday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite leading while cyclicals and small caps lagged.

The Dow slipped 23 points after adding nearly 1,100 in the two previous sessions. The Dow is still up 3.8% for the week.

Earlier in the week, stocks dependent on an economic recovery rallied, sparked by an announcement from Pfizer and BioNTech that the companies’ Covid-19 vaccine candidate appeared to be more than 90% effective in its phase three trial.

More positive news on the vaccine front could come soon, as Moderna announced on Wednesday evening that its phase-three trial had accrued enough cases of the coronavirus to submit the preliminary results to an independent safety monitoring board.

The positive news for vaccines comes amid a worrying rise in Covid-19 cases across the country. The United States has now confirmed more than 10 million cases of the virus and some areas, including New York City and San Francisco, have announced new economic restrictions in an attempt to slow the spread.

The rally for equities after the Pfizer news followed a strong election week for stocks, which saw the S&P 500 rise more than 7%. Rick Rieder, head of the global allocation team at BlackRock, said on “Closing Bell” that he expected stocks to continue to rise through the end of the year, though he expected trading to be choppy.

He also said he expected the economic recovery to continue despite the rise in Covid-19 cases.

“The Fed is going to stay in this accommodative mode for a period of time,” Rieder said. “When you put that much stimulus in, you put that much liquidity in, and then you add fiscal stimulus ... the economy will actually do pretty well.”

Investors will also be looking at new data on the economic recovery on Thursday morning. The Labor Department is slated to release jobless claims data for last week before the opening bell, and economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect 740,000 claims. New inflation data will also be released before the markets open in New York.

Nov 11, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator: The Dow is set to jump 200 points as vaccine market rally stretches to a third day


Fred Imbert, Maggie Fitzgerald


U.S. equity futures rose on Wednesday with the Dow Jones Industrial average set to gain for a third day after news of an effective Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine earlier this week sparked hopes of a return to normal economic activity.

Dow futures added 209 points, or 0.7%. The move implied an opening gain of about 200 points. S&P 500 futures were up 0.7%.

What was different on Wednesday was that technology stocks were bouncing back. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.9%. Alphabet and Microsoft both traded 1% higher in the premarket. Apple gained 0.9%. Netflix climbed 0.6%. Facebook and Amazon rose 0.7% each.

The Dow was coming off two back-to-back strong sessions, jumping 262 points on Tuesday and surging more than 800 points on Monday following Pfizer and BioNTech’s announcement about their more than 90% effective Covid-19 vaccine.

The news caused investors to move out of technology names and stay-at-home stocks and into cyclical stocks that hinge on a recovering economy, causing Nasdaq names to underperform this week.

Eli Lilly’s antibody drug was cleared by the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use late Monday. The agency said the drug could be used to treat mild-to-moderate cases of Covid-19 in patients who are older than 12 years old.

The vaccine and antibody drug news comes as the United States once again topped its prior day record of daily new Covid-19 infections, on a seven-day average, while also crossing the bleak milestone of more than 10 million cases nationwide on Monday. The seven-day average of daily new cases Monday was 108,964, a 37% increase from a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 hit intraday record highs on Monday, but closed off their highs. The Dow is up about 4% this week.

The energy sector is up 17% this week, as oil prices gain on hopes of improving demand. The financial sector has risen about 9% since Monday.

“The leadership rotation away from technology and Fangs toward broader market plays including small caps, cyclical sectors and international stocks strengthened for a second consecutive day,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC.

“Since the vaccine announcement before yesterday’s open, investors have been selling ‘stay at home stocks,’ mostly technology and communications, and buying ‘economy re-opening stocks.’ The continuation of this trend [Tuesday] has only convinced more investors this new trend may persist,” he added.

Nov 9, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator (Update): The Dow is set to surge 5% to a record as Pfizer says Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective

 

Yun Li


Investors cheered on Monday after drugmakers Pfizer and BioNTech said trial data indicated their Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective.

Many on Wall Street applauded the announcement as a sign that the pharmaceutical industry may soon have a viable way to control a disease that has derailed the U.S. economy for much of 2020 and has killed more than 230,000 Americans.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,500 points, or 5.2%, implying an opening gain of more than 1,400 points. The Dow’s previous intraday record was 29,568.57, about 1,245 points from Friday’s close.

S&P 500 futures jumped 3.4%.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5% as traders left crowded growth and stay-at-home stocks in favor of cyclical companies that could outperform if the Pfizer vaccine is approved for widespread use.

Stocks were already set to continue their big post-election rally Monday as Democrat Joe Biden defeated incumbent Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race to become president elect, according to NBC projections.

Dow futures were up about 400 points before the vaccine news.

The 90% effective rate from Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech was better than what the market was expecting. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that a vaccine that was 50% to 60% effective would be acceptable.

“Amazing news from Pfizer with 90% efficacy. This hopefully is the beginning of the end of our fight against Covid,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, wrote in an email.

“As I’ve been saying on the hopes of this, we need to shift our attention to those parts of the market that have been the most hammered because of Covid and away from the work from home stocks that have had such an incredible year because Covid is not forever,” he added.

Travel, restaurant and hospitality companies that saw their equities swoon in the spring as Covid surged saw some of the strongest rallies on Monday following Pfizer’s announcement.

“It is materially bullish for stocks in the near term,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report. “Regarding the data, the 90% efficiency rate in preventing COVID-19 is higher than was hoped for...Given election clarity and the calendar (holiday’s approaching), a run in the S&P 500 to 3900 is not unreasonable. ”

Shares of cruise-operator Carnival Corp. rocketed higher by 18%, Southwest Airlines jumped 9% and the Walt Disney Company popped 6% as investors bet a vaccine may allow more vacationers to attend its many amusement parks.

“I think that the rally is justifiable. I think we’re going to start a new discussion, and the discussion is what’s America going to look like post Covid,” said CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer. “If you think about where we were last week, where we felt that there was very little chance to be able to stop this thing, now suddenly we have hope.”

The Monday rally for equities also marked the first trading day after NBC News projected that former Vice President Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election against incumbent President Donald Trump. The call came four days after Election Day and amid close counts in several battleground states.

Wall Street hoped the victory for Biden would reduce the odds of a drawn-out election fight, even as Trump refused to concede. Many traders had put on bets for market volatility in November and were unwinding those positions, helping fuel a rally.

In the meantime, the chances of a “blue wave” that sweeps Democrats into the majority of both the Senate and the House have waned, meaning drastic policy changes such as tax hikes are less likely.

“A Biden presidency with a Republican Senate would be unlikely to see any increase in taxes, which was arguably the biggest fear investors had about a Biden presidency,” Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, said in a note on Sunday. “And a Biden presidency could mean a return to a more traditional, predictable approach to trade policy, which would likely result in less volatile markets.”

Democrats are projected to keep their House majority, although Wall Street was watching closely as Senate control is still in limbo. Both of Georgia’s Senate races are likely going to runoffs slated for early January.

Wall Street had rallied in the past week in anticipation for such a gridlocked government and was set to build on that rally as it gained clarity in the presidential race.

All three major averages just notched their best weekly performance since April. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 7.3% and 9%, respectively, last week, while the Dow rose 6.9%. The S&P 500 also posted its biggest election week gain since 1932.

Tech was the biggest winner last week among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, surging 9.7%. Investors piled into the high-growth group as the prospect of higher taxes and tighter regulations under a Democratic sweep decreased.

Trump rejects outcome

Stock futures gained even as Trump is refusing to concede the election, vowing that as soon as Monday his team will start “prosecuting our case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld.”

The president and his surrogates have launched lawsuits in multiple key states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, and have signaled they plan to press for recounts in some close races.

Biden announced Monday morning the members of his coronavirus task force, who will be charged with crafting a plan to curb the spread of the coronavirus as it reaches record-level highs in the U.S.

Among its ranks are Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, chair of the Department of Bioethics at The Clinical Center of the National Institutes of Health, and Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

The U.S. reported more than 126,000 new cases of the coronavirus two days in a row and has reported a new record daily spike in cases every day over the past four days, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

“As the election focus starts to fade, investors will begin paying more attention to Covid as cases continue to explode and Europe institutes a series of mitigation measures,” Adam Crisafulli, the founder of the Vital Knowledge, said in an note on Sunday. “Vaccine anticipation has helped protect stocks from the ugly virus headlines.”

US Market | Futures Indicator: Dow futures jump 1,400 points as Pfizer, BioNtech say Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective

 

Yun Li


Stock futures surged after Pfizer and BioNTech said trial data indicated their Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,201 points, or 4.3%, implying an opening gain of more than 1,200 points. S&P 500 futures jumped 3.6%. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 2%.

Stocks were already set to continue their big post-election rally Monday as Democrat Joe Biden defeated incumbent Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race to become president elect, according to NBC projections.

Dow futures were up about 400 points before the vaccine news.

The 90% effective rate from Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech was better than what the market was expecting. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that a vaccine that was 50% to 60% effective would be acceptable.

“Amazing news from Pfizer with 90% efficacy. This hopefully is the beginning of the end of our fight against Covid,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, wrote in an email.

“As I’ve been saying on the hopes of this, we need to shift our attention to those parts of the market that have been the most hammered because of Covid and away from the work from home stocks that have had such an incredible year because Covid is not forever,” he added.

Travel, restaurant and hospitality companies that saw their equities swoon in the spring as Covid surged saw some of the strongest rallies on Monday following Pfizer’s announcement.

Shares of cruise-operator Carnival Corp. rocketed higher by 18%, Southwest Airlines jumped 9% and the Walt Disney Company popped 6% as investors bet a vaccine may allow more vacationers to attend its many amusement parks.

“I think that the rally is justifiable. I think we’re going to start a new discussion, and the discussion is what’s America going to look like post Covid,” said CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer. “If you think about where we were last week, where we felt that there was very little chance to be able to stop this thing, now suddenly we have hope.”

The former vice president won after his projected victory in Pennsylvania as well as Nevada, according to NBC News projections on Saturday. The call came four days after Election Day and amid close counts in several battleground states.

Wall Street hoped the call would reduce the odds of a drawn-out election fight, even as Trump refused to concede. Many traders had put on bets for market volatility in November and were unwinding those positions, helping fuel a rally.

In the meantime, the chances of a “blue wave” that sweeps Democrats into the majority of both the Senate and the House have waned, meaning drastic policy changes such as tax hikes are less likely.

“A Biden presidency with a Republican Senate would be unlikely to see any increase in taxes, which was arguably the biggest fear investors had about a Biden presidency,” Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, said in a note on Sunday. “And a Biden presidency could mean a return to a more traditional, predictable approach to trade policy, which would likely result in less volatile markets.”

Democrats are projected to keep their House majority, although Wall Street was watching closely as Senate control is still in limbo. Both of Georgia’s Senate races are likely going to runoffs slated for early January.

Wall Street had rallied in the past week in anticipation for such a gridlocked government and was set to build on that rally as it gained clarity in the presidential race. All three major averages just notched their best weekly performance since April. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 7.3% and 9%, respectively, last week, while the Dow rose 6.9%. The S&P 500 also posted its biggest election week gain since 1932.

Tech was the biggest winner last week among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, surging 9.7%. Investors piled into the high-growth group as the prospect of higher taxes and tighter regulations under a Democratic sweep decreased.

Trump rejects outcome

Stock futures gained even as Trump is refusing to concede the election, vowing that as soon as Monday his team will start “prosecuting our case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld.”

The president and his surrogates have launched lawsuits in multiple key states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, and have signaled they plan to press for recounts in some close races.

Biden is expected on Monday to announce the members of his coronavirus task force, who will be charged with crafting a plan to curb the spread of the coronavirus as it reaches record-high levels.

The U.S. reported more than 126,000 new cases of the coronavirus two days in a row and has reported a new record daily spike in cases every day over the past four days, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

“As the election focus starts to fade, investors will begin paying more attention to Covid as cases continue to explode and Europe institutes a series of mitigation measures,” Adam Crisafulli, the founder of the Vital Knowledge, said in an note on Sunday. “Vaccine anticipation has helped protect stocks from the ugly virus headlines.”

Nov 5, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator: Dow futures jump more than 300 points as Wall Street extends post-election rally

 

Fred Imbert, Pippa Stevens


U.S. stock index futures were sharply higher early Thursday on hopes the winner of the U.S. presidential election would soon be determined.

Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 353 points, or 1.3%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively.

Late Wednesday, NBC News projected that former Vice President Joe Biden was the winner in Wisconsin and Michigan, both states that President Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Biden would then be just 17 Electoral College votes away from winning, NBC News reported Wednesday.

“Markets are reacting very positively to the fact that a great deal of the election uncertainty has passed. Not all of it, but at least the worst outcomes seem to have been avoided. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is likely to be a tailwind for a while,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.

Even with the president-elect unclear, stocks rose broadly during Wednesday’s trading session as hopes for a blue wave in Congress dwindled, which some argued would have been a headwind for areas of the market including Big Tech.

“It looks likely that we’ll see a split Congress, which, based on history, has been the preference of the stock market,” said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest. “You can see this expectation being priced into the market [Wednesday] with health care, communication services and technology stocks are leading the market.”

On Wednesday, the Dow finished the session with a gain of 367.63 points, or 1.3%. At its session high, the 30-stock average gained 821 points. The S&P 500 advanced 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.9%.

U.S. equities’ surge came despite the election results remaining up in the air following record voter turnout, as well as a jump in absentee ballots as people stayed home amid a spike in Covid-19 cases.

The Trump campaign said it would seek a recount in Wisconsin, while earlier on Wednesday announcing that it was suing to halt ballot counting in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Late Wednesday the campaign also said it had filed suit in Georgia seeking to require all counties there to separate ballots that arrive after the voting deadline from other, “legally cast ballots.”

Trump on Wednesday night tried to falsely claim victory in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan. NBC News has yet to call the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump’s comments followed his declaration in the early hours of Wednesday that he had won the race, despite the fact that millions of votes had not been counted.

Late Wednesday afternoon, Biden said in a speech delivered in Wilmington, Delaware that he expected to win the election. The Democratic nominee’s comments followed remarks by his campaign manager Jen O’Malley that Biden would be “the next president of the United States.”

Meanwhile, the Democrats were projected to retain control of the House, while flipping the Senate became increasingly unlikely.

“With no blue wave, we are likely to see the Senate remain very closely divided, which will constrain the policy options of whoever wins the presidency. That probably rules out any substantial activity on taxes, as well as limiting any actions to control the major tech firms,” Commonwealth Financial Network’s McMillan added. Facebook gained 8.3% on Wednesday, while Amazon and Alphabet advanced more than 6% each. Apple and Netflix rose 4% and 2%, respectively.

However, some strategists noted that a contested election, which is not off the table at this point, could lead to a sharp drop in stocks over the short-term.

“More than anything, the market is looking for a peaceful transition of power. Social unrest or a contested election could trigger a significant increase in volatility,” said Don Calcagni, chief investment officer of Mercer Advisors.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Wednesday that passing further stimulus will be the chamber’s top priority when it reconvenes, although analysts warned that without a blue wave the package will be smaller than the $3 trillion Democrats wanted.

Nov 4, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator: S&P 500 futures rise as tech shares jump, but gains are capped as investors await election winner

 

Fred Imbert


U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday, led by tech shares, but the gains were kept in check as the results of the presidential contest so far failed to yield a clear winner.

S&P 500 futures traded 0.7% higher and Nasdaq 100 futures popped 2.6% as investors crowded back into the trade that’s been working for most of this tumultuous year. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 22 points, or less than 0.1%. At one point, Dow futures were down sharply; they also posted strong gains earlier in the session.

“I think the big news for the markets right now at least as it looks preliminary is that there’s not going to be a blue wave, which is generally supportive for markets,” said Mike Lewis, managing director of U.S. equity cash trading at Barclays, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “I think that the outlook going forward for markets is this is going to be more about policy and the Fed than it’s going to be about politics, which is a good thing for markets.”

Earlier in the overnight session, futures contracts for the Dow and S&P 500 came under some pressure after President Donald Trump tried to claim victory even though millions of legitimate votes were not yet counted.

“We were getting ready for a big celebration. We were winning everything, and all of a sudden it was just called off,” Trump said. “We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court, we want all voting to stop.”

“We don’t want them to find any ballots at 4 o’clock in the morning and add them to the list,” he added.

Democratic nominee Joe Biden appeared to be unable to take North Carolina, with Trump holding a lead in that state, according to NBC News. However, Biden was leading in Arizona, although NBC News said it was too early to call the state. Key swing states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could take days to determine.

“We believe we’re on track to win this election,” Biden said to supporters in Delaware overnight. The candidate said the winner could be known Wednesday morning but it could take a little longer.

Trump is projected to win the presidential vote in Florida, Indiana and Kentucky along with South Dakota, Arkansas and Ohio, NBC News said. Trump is also projected to win Alabama and North Dakota. Biden is projected to win Vermont, Delaware, Maryland and Massachusetts as well as Colorado, New York and Virginia, according to NBC News.

“We’re seeing in one night what we’ve seen over the past two weeks, which is a tug of war within the polling itself causing wide swings in the market as uncertainty persists,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist/SunTrust Advisory.

Shares of major tech-related companies jumped in early premarket trading. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft were all up more than 2%. Netflix shares gained 3.7%.

Wall Street traders and investors attributed the move in tech and the Nasdaq 100 futures to a number of factors, including the group’s consistently solid returns and safety appeal in times of uncertainty.  Additionally, some viewed the potential for Republicans to hold onto the Senate as a positive for the group since a higher capital gains taxes from a Democrat congress could have weighed on the high growth sector.

Contested election?

Traders also grappled with the possibility of a contested election result, which Wall Street strategists say could have major consequences for the stock market. Among other things, analysts warn that a delayed result would hamper the ability of Washington to pass additional fiscal stimulus amid a jump in Covid-19 cases.

Wall Street was coming off a strong session on Tuesday, with the Dow jumping more than 500 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, jumped more than 1% each.

Those moves came as investors hoped a delayed, or contested, U.S. presidential election result would be avoided and a clear winner would emerge Tuesday night. Biden was ahead of Trump in the polls leading up to Tuesday.

Senate battle

Traders were also eyeing the battle for the Senate and its implications for future fiscal policies. So far on election night, it was unclear whether the Democrats would be able to win back the Senate. Republicans possibly gained a key win with Republican Sen. Joni Ernst projected to win the Iowa Senate race.

Going into the election, traders feared a Democrat win in the Senate and a Biden presidency could bring higher tax rates, impacting technology shares especially. At the same time, some investors were hopeful that a so-called blue wave could yield a bigger stimulus to battle the effects of the coronavirus, boosting stocks linked to the broader economy.

The S&P 500 lost 0.4%, on average, the day after presidential elections, according to Baird.

Chao Ma of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute thinks investors with a longer time horizon should not worry too much about the election’s impact on the broader market.

“The history of the economy and the S&P 500 Index suggests that a president’s party affiliation has made little difference when it comes to long-term returns,” said the firm’s global portfolio and investment strategist. “The long-term drivers of the S&P 500 index have been the economy and business earnings, and we expect that to continue to be the case ... beyond the 2020 elections.”

One year out from a presidential election, the S&P 500 averaged a return of more than 8%, according to the Baird data back to 1960.

“When this is all said and done, I still believe equities will move higher regardless of who wins the Oval Office,” said Ryan Nauman, market strategist at Informa Financial intelligence, noting the coronavirus pandemic and U.S. monetary policy will be bigger market drivers over the long haul.

—CNBC’s Pippa Stevens contributed to this report.

Nov 3, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator: Dow futures rise nearly 400 points on U.S. Election Day

 

Maggie Fitzgerald


U.S. stock futures rose sharply early Tuesday as investors waited for the results of the presidential election between incumbent Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Dow futures pointed to an opening gain of nearly 400 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also traded in positive territory.

Stocks rebounded on Monday from an October sell-off driven by a spike in Covid-19 cases, a breakdown in economic stimulus talks, and uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 423 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 also registered a gain of 1.23%. The Nasdaq Composite was the relative underperformer, adding just 0.4% as Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft all closed lower.

“Today’s strong stock market gain was fueled by technical support — a stock market which bounced decisively from its recent lows, a nod to ongoing economic momentum, despite a recent spike in Covid cases,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC. “As the election finally nears, investors who were selling on the rumor may now be buying on the news, and finally, after almost a 10% decline in the last month, buying on the dip is back.”

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday that the rally in equities could be from some optimism that there will be a clear election outcome, as opposed to a contested election.

Stocks also got a boost after manufacturing activity in October jumped to its highest level in more than two years, pointing to a resilient economy in the face of the coronavirus. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.3, a reading that indicates the percentage of companies reporting that activity expanded during the month. 

Heading into Tuesday, Joe Biden holds a lead in national polling over President Donald Trump. The former vice president earned 52% of support from registered voters compared to 42% for the president, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from Sunday. In swing states, where the election will be decided, polling averages are tighter than the national polls.

A full day before Election Day, more than 94 million votes have already been cast in the U.S, already exceeding or nearing total levels in 2016, according to the U.S. Elections Project.

Investors are also eyeing the key Senate election which will determine if the so-called Blue Wave will take over Congress. Major policy shifts, including further fiscal stimulus, depend on which parts have majority control.

The Dow had its worst month since March in October and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both had their second straight months of losses.

In addition to the presidential election, the U.S. is also facing a surge in coronavirus cases. Coronavirus cases in the U.S. continued to rise over the weekend, with more than 81,400 new infections recorded on Sunday, according to Johns Hopkins data. That brings the seven-day average of new cases past 81,000 for the first time ever, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. 

After the bell Monday, Royal Caribbean Cruises cancelled all of its sailing through the end of the year. The shares fell slightly in after hours.

In Europe, the U.K. became the latest country to add new Covid-19 mitigation measures, joining France, Germany, Greece, Belgium and Austria.

Earnings season continues on Tuesday with Bayer, Fox Corp and Humana reporting before the bell.

Nov 2, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator: The Dow is set to jump 400 points, rebounding from worst week since March

 

Yun Li


U.S. stock futures rallied in early trading Monday as the stock market looked to bounce back from a brutal week and month.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 435 points, or 1.7%. The move pointed to an opening gain of more than 400 points. S&P 500 futures rose 1.48% and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 1.31%.

The market’s comeback came even as England adopted a stay-at-home order to fight the coronavirus and as traders braced for Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced Saturday England is closing all nonessential businesses for the next four weeks after more than 22,600 weekly Covid-19 cases were reported for the U.K., far higher than its first peak of 4,800 average weekly cases in the spring. People will be ordered to stay at home unless it’s for essential purposes, Johnson said.

The U.S. is also grappling with rising new coronavirus infections. The nation reported 99,321 new Covid-19 cases on Friday, beating its previous record set only a day prior, according to Johns Hopkins University. The top five records in daily cases have all been reported within the last eight days.

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, Joe Biden holds a substantial national lead over President Donald Trump. The former vice president garnered 52% of support from registered voters versus 42% for the president, according to a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from Sunday.

The Senate election could also be crucial for the markets as many key policy shifts including further fiscal stimulus hinge on who holds the majority control.

“The world is still largely in a holding pattern as investors await clarity on the U.S. election,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note Sunday. “The world will likely be a lot clearer in just a few days thanks to the election being over, stimulus talks resuming in Washington, further central bank support.”

The blue-chip Dow just closed out October with a 4.6% loss, marking its worst monthly performance since March. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 2.8% and 2.3% last month, respectively, both suffering their second straight negative month.

The major averages are coming off their worst week since March 20 as coronavirus cases surged, fiscal stimulus negotiations fell apart and as shares of megacap tech companies including Apple and Amazon slumped following their quarterly earnings reports.

Volatility spiked to a four-month high during last week’s stock rout. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the market’s “fear gauge,” jumped above 40 briefly.

Some on Wall Street believe the sell-off leading up to Election Day gives the market less downside risk to a contested result.

“Even though we’re worried that there could still be one more wave down if we get another big influx of uncertainty, we think the stock market is now setting up nicely for a nice net advance over the next two months or so,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note on Sunday.

Apart from the election, investors are faced with other key events later this week, including a Federal Reserve policy meeting and October’s jobs report.

Oct 29, 2020

US Market | Futures Indicator Update: Futures are flat as Wall Street tries to recover from the worst sell-off in months

 

Jesse Pound


U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday after the worst day for the market in months.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 30 points, or 0.1%. Futures for the S&P 500 added 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%.

Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook, which all report earnings on Thursday, were higher in premarket trading.

U.S. gross domestic product for the third quarter is out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect growth of 32% on an annualized basis, a huge comeback that still leaves the economy far below where it was before the coronavirus hit.

“I recognize the carnage, but I do think the carnage is reversible,” said CNBC’s Jim Cramer after Wednesday’s steep declines.

The move in futures comes after a sharp sell-off during Wednesday’s session that extended Wall Street’s losing streak. The Dow lost 934 points, or 3.4%, for its fourth-straight negative day and worst loss since June 11. The S&P 500 also saw its worst day since June 11, falling 3.5% for its third-straight negative session.

The Dow is down more than 6% this week and the S&P 500 is off by more than 5%, on pace for their worst weeks since March.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered a slightly larger loss at 3.7% after advancing modestly in the prior session, marking its worst performance since Sept. 8.

The sell-off mirrored a rough day for European markets, as rising Covid cases on that continent spurred leaders of Germany and France to announce new economic restrictions for the next month. New cases have also been rising domestically, with former Food and Drug Administration chief, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, telling CNBC that the U.S. was on a path that is three or four weeks behind Europe.

Mark Luschini, the chief investment officer at Janney Capital Management, said that he thought the pullback would prove to be a buying opportunity because some of the stocks that would benefit from an economic recovery — such as financials, materials and small caps — suffered smaller losses than the broader market.

“That’s not indicative of investors indicting growth here domestically or on a global basis,” he said.

Still, Luschini said that one key level he was watching on the S&P 500 was the 200-day moving average at about 3,130, roughly 4.3% below where the index closed on Wednesday.

Testing that level “would help to define this as being a natural pullback that was likely to occur, whether it was catalyzed by the election or coronavirus or Sino-American trade negotiations or whatever, and would only be in my mind nothing more than a healthy pullback in the context of a secular rally, or if it’s something that takes more of a nefarious characteristic,” Luschini said.

The market decline also came as investors prepare for a massive day of corporate earnings on Thursday. Moderna, Yum Brands and Comcast, the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC, are scheduled to report before the bell.

The afternoon will bring quarterly results from many of the world’s largest tech companies, including Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google-parent Alphabet. Combined, those companies have a market cap of more than $5 trillion.

Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen, said on “Closing Bell” that the failure for a stronger-than-expected first half of earnings season to boost the broader market was a cause for concern.

“Another thing that bothers me is a lot of companies are coming out with much less-worse earnings than expected, the stocks initially go up and then they fade. Too many stocks falling on good earnings results. The market’s just tired and needs a rest,” Doll said.

Shares of Facebook and Twitter, which also reports results on Thursday afternoon, moved higher in extended trading after fellow social media stock Pinterest reported strong growth in revenue and monthly active users. Shares of Pinterest rocketed 28% higher in after hours trading.

US Market | Futures Indicator: Futures rise slightly as Wall Street tries to recover from the worst sell-off in months

 

Jesse Pound


U.S. stock futures rebounded slightly on Thursday after the worst day for the market in months.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 50 points, or 0.2%. The move implied an opening gain for the Dow of about 40 points. Futures for the S&P 500 added 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%.

Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook, which all report earnings on Thursday, were higher in premarket trading.

U.S. gross domestic product for the third quarter is out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect growth of 32% on an annualized basis, a huge comeback that still leaves the economy far below where it was before the coronavirus hit.

“I recognize the carnage, but I do think the carnage is reversible,” said CNBC’s Jim Cramer after Wednesday’s steep declines.

The move in futures comes after a sharp sell-off during Wednesday’s session that extended Wall Street’s losing streak. The Dow lost 934 points, or 3.4%, for its fourth-straight negative day and worst loss since June 11. The S&P 500 also saw its worst day since June 11, falling 3.5% for its third-straight negative session.

The Dow is down more than 6% this week and the S&P 500 is off by more than 5%, on pace for their worst weeks since March.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered a slightly larger loss at 3.7% after advancing modestly in the prior session, marking its worst performance since Sept. 8.

The sell-off mirrored a rough day for European markets, as rising Covid cases on that continent spurred leaders of Germany and France to announce new economic restrictions for the next month. New cases have also been rising domestically, with former Food and Drug Administration chief, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, telling CNBC that the U.S. was on a path that is three or four weeks behind Europe.

Mark Luschini, the chief investment officer at Janney Capital Management, said that he thought the pullback would prove to be a buying opportunity because some of the stocks that would benefit from an economic recovery — such as financials, materials and small caps — suffered smaller losses than the broader market.

“That’s not indicative of investors indicting growth here domestically or on a global basis,” he said.

Still, Luschini said that one key level he was watching on the S&P 500 was the 200-day moving average at about 3,130, roughly 4.3% below where the index closed on Wednesday.

Testing that level “would help to define this as being a natural pullback that was likely to occur, whether it was catalyzed by the election or coronavirus or Sino-American trade negotiations or whatever, and would only be in my mind nothing more than a healthy pullback in the context of a secular rally, or if it’s something that takes more of a nefarious characteristic,” Luschini said.

The market decline also came as investors prepare for a massive day of corporate earnings on Thursday. Moderna, Yum Brands and Comcast, the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC, are scheduled to report before the bell.

The afternoon will bring quarterly results from many of the world’s largest tech companies, including Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google-parent Alphabet. Combined, those companies have a market cap of more than $5 trillion.

Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen, said on “Closing Bell” that the failure for a stronger-than-expected first half of earnings season to boost the broader market was a cause for concern.

“Another thing that bothers me is a lot of companies are coming out with much less-worse earnings than expected, the stocks initially go up and then they fade. Too many stocks falling on good earnings results. The market’s just tired and needs a rest,” Doll said.

Shares of Facebook and Twitter, which also reports results on Thursday afternoon, moved higher in extended trading after fellow social media stock Pinterest reported strong growth in revenue and monthly active users. Shares of Pinterest rocketed 28% higher in after hours trading.

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