Showing posts with label Futures & Commodities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Futures & Commodities. Show all posts

Oct 3, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold gains 1% as poor US data ignites growth worries

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




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Gold bars on display in Tokyo on September 27, 2010.
Yoshikazu Tsuno | AFP | Getty Images
Gold jumped more than 1% to its highest in a week on Thursday as weak U.S. data deepened concerns over economic growth and bolstered bets for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,507.43 per ounce. Earlier, prices had hit their highest since Sept. 25 at $1,518.50. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,513.30.
U.S. services sector growth slowed to its most anaemic pace in three years last month, and job growth in the largest segment of the economy was the weakest in half a decade, a survey of purchasing managers showed.
“We continue to see a string of weak economic data that exacerbate concerns about economic growth. On the back of that, we are seeing safe haven demand return significantly in products like gold,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
“This also brings prospects of rate cuts at the end of October. So the likelihood of that rate cut continues to increase and lower interest rates are supportive for gold.”
Data earlier in the week showed manufacturing contracted to the weakest level in a decade and hiring by U.S. private employers slowed further in September.
The weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data weighed on global financial markets, extending a stock slide that has pushed world equity benchmarks back to lows last seen in August.
Adding to the economic uncertainty, Washington on Wednesday said it would slap tariffs on certain products from the European Union.
“Data is showing a slowdown and traders are gravitating into gold and precious metals,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors.
“The tariffs are pretty much what is causing the slowdown in the ISM numbers. More tariffs make people’s anticipation of the economic data weaker, so you might as well start buying what will work in future and that is gold.”
Further helping gold, the dollar fell to a four-week low against the yen and a one-week trough versus the euro.
Holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, rose to 923.76 tonnes on Wednesday, very close to last week’s 924.94 tonnes, their highest since mid-November 2016.
Platinum rose 0.8% to $893.64 per ounce, while silver rose 0.3% to $17.60 an ounce.
Palladium was down 2.2% at $1,650.21 per ounce.
The metal used in vehicle exhausts to reduce harmful emissions is likely to rise still higher after growing demand from automakers and a gaping supply shortfall pushed prices to record levels above $1,700 an ounce this week, analysts said.

Oct 2, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold climbs 1%; weak US data feeds economic fears:

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




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An employee returns a box of one kilogram gold bars to the safe in Budapest, Hungary, on June 17, 2013.
Akos Stiller | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday as a report showing weaker-than-expected hiring by U.S. private employers stoked economic fears the day after another report showed weak manufacturing activity in the world’s largest economy.
Spot gold was up 1.5% at $1,500.66 per ounce. Prices had hit a near two-month low of $1,458.50 on Tuesday, before climbing as much as 1% during the session. U.S. gold futures climbed 1.2% to $1,506.80 an ounce.
“The main thing that is moving gold higher right now is yesterday’s manufacturing data that came out worse since 2009... and that has fed expectations of lower interest rates in the U.S. and is pushing gold higher,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
“The fact that we have contraction in manufacturing shows the U.S. is not insulated from the rest of the world.”
The ADP National Employment report on Wednesday showed U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in September, pointing to a labor market slowdown. A day earlier, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that U.S. manufacturing activity slumped to a more than 10-year low in September.
A major global share index hit its lowest level in a month on fears that fallout from the U.S.-China trade war is spreading to the U.S. economy and could further hurt global growth. The U.S. dollar steadied after being knocked off its highest levels in nearly two years after the manufacturing data.
The weak data bolstered expectations for another interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and should also weigh on U.S. yields and the dollar, in which gold is priced.
Investors are awaiting the next Fed meeting later this month. The Fed cut interest rates in September for the second time this year.
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said interest rates were “too high” and that a strong dollar was hurting U.S. manufacturers.
“Gold has a problem with the dollar index still being near 99 and gold seems to be weathering that storm,” said George Gero, managing director at RBC Wealth Management.
Citing the stock market, the ADP employment report and other factors including stop-loss selling, Gero said, “gold is probably going to be a little more stable.”

Oct 1, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Market Report: Gold bounces off two-month lows on weaker US data

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




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An Argor-Heraeus SA stamp sits on a 250 gram gold bar in Budapest, Hungary, on  March 10, 2016.
Akos Stiller | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold rose on Tuesday, reversing course from earlier in the session, when it touched a near two-month low, as the dollar pared gains after weak U.S. manufacturing data bolstered bets for another interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,482.28 per ounce, having touched its lowest since Aug. 6 at $1,458.50. U.S. gold futures were up 1.1% at $1,488.30.
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in September to its weakest level in more than a decade as business conditions deteriorated further amid trade tensions with China.
“It shows there might be significant corrections in the economy and traders are going back into safety right now,” said Phillip Streible, senior commodities strategist at RJO Futures.
“This weaker data might support another Fed rate cut and as a result, metals might get a bonus move higher,” he said.
U.S. equities turned red and the dollar pared gains to retreat from a multi-year peak following the data. U.S. Treasury yields meanwhile, fell to session lows.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and also weigh on U.S. yields and the dollar, in which gold is priced.
However, bullion has lost nearly $100 since scaling a peak of $1,557 early September, largely due to the dollar’s strength.
Investors had been largely pricing in no further rate cuts going into a Fed meeting later in the month on stronger economic data and reduced fears of a global recession. The Fed last cut interest rates in September for the second time this year.
While gold had been testing support below $1,500 due to repricing of Fed rate cut expectations, “we think that risks remain skewed to the upside between now and year end,” UBS analysts said in a note.
Palladium fell 0.5% to $1,666.19 an ounce. On Monday, the auto catalyst metal hit an all-time high of $1,700.71 on supply concerns.
“Fundamentals remain tight and we remain bullish long term, but there should be some opportunities to enter at better levels amid downside risks to economic data and lingering trade uncertainty,” UBS analysts said.
Silver gained 1.5% to $17.25 after touching its lowest since Aug. 20 at $16.85, while platinum was down 0.1% to $880.83, having lost over 5% in the last session.

Sep 30, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Platinum, gold slide as dollar soars; palladium eases off record

3-4 minutes - Source: CNBC




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A worker holds a gold bullion on January 13, 2015 at Istanbul Gold Refinery in Istanbul, Turkey.
Ozan Kose | AFP | Getty Images
Platinum plunged more than 5% and gold shed 2% on Monday, leading a sharp decline across precious metals driven by a soaring dollar, with deficit-hit palladium too giving up some gains from a record rally that saw it breach $1,700.
Silver slid more than 3% to its lowest in more than a month.
Spot palladium eased 0.8% to $1,668.33 an ounce, having earlier touched a record high of $1,700.71. The metal has risen more than 9% this month.
“There is strong fabrication demand but a good part of this is speculative demand from investors who expect prices to rise and also people who are getting out of gold, silver and platinum because those prices are falling, some of them are shifting into palladium,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.
“There’s a lot of concern that there isn’t a lot of palladium around; a big part of that is people who own the metal don’t want to sell at current prices. They want to see how high the price goes before they keep their profits.”
The price of palladium, used mainly in emissions-reducing catalysts for vehicles, has risen about 33% this year and nearly 9% this quarter, despite a weakening auto sector, due to tight supply.
Meanwhile, gold shed 1.8% to $1,469.61 after the dollar hit multi-year highs, making the dollar-denominated metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. Earlier, prices fell about 2% to their lowest since Aug. 6 at $1,465.90, with bullion also marking its first monthly decline in five.
For the quarter, however, bullion has risen more than 4% so far.
“Gold and silver ... continue to decline on a slightly firmer dollar and a relatively uneventful geopolitical landscape,” INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said in a note.
Also weighing on gold, stocks firmed after Washington’s dismissal of a report from Friday, which had said the U.S. administration was considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.
Investors also kept a close eye on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
The central bank cut interest rates earlier in September for the second time this year.
“The Fed said they’re going to be very cautious about lowering rates since it’s not clear that we really need to, which was taken as a confirmation that there’s a fair bit of potential growth before getting concerned about recession. So people backed away from some of the fears that drove them into gold on a short-term basis.” CPM Group’s Christian said.
Elsewhere, platinum dropped 4.4% at $889.29, having earlier slid about 5% to touch its lowest since Aug. 28 at $876. Silver shed about 3% to $17.03 after hitting a more than one-month low of $16.92.
However, both metals are up about 6% and 11.5% for the quarter respectively.

Sep 26, 2019

Energy | Oil | Oil Price Report: Oil slides as Saudi supply rebound weighs

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




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Photo taken August 19, 2013 shows a worker checking oil tanks at an oil well near Tioga, North Dakota.
Karen Bleier | AFP | Getty Images
Oil fell on Thursday for the third straight day as Saudi Arabia’s moves to restore output quickly after attacks on its oil installations promised yet more oil supply.
Brent crude futures were down 72 cents, or 1.1%, at $61.67 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 79 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $55.70 a barrel.
“There has been not much joy for oil bulls in recent days as either sluggish stock market performance, recovering Saudi oil production or unexpectedly disappointing U.S. inventory data hindered any attempt to push prices higher,” Tamas Varga of oil brokerage PVM said.
Prices were weighed down by the faster-than-expected recovery of Saudi output after the drone and missile strikes on two of its oil-processing plants, as well as a surprise 2.4-million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories last week.
The world’s top oil exporter has restored its production capacity to 11.3 million barrels per day, sources briefed on Saudi Aramco’s operations told Reuters.
But U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signalled that a resolution to the trade dispute with China might be near, which could eventually boost fuel demand. A day after delivering a stinging rebuke to China over its trade policies, Trump said Beijing wanted to make a deal and it “could happen sooner than you think”.
Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also signed a limited trade deal that would open Japanese markets to $7 billion of U.S. products annually.
“The oil market has seemingly returned to business as usual,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics and next-generation research at Julius Baer. “Instead of the attack-related fallout including disruption and geopolitical risks, the soft economy and stagnant oil demand are back in focus.”
Crude futures were pressured by sluggish economic data in leading European economies and Japan. A firmer dollar, which registered its sharpest daily gain in three months overnight and held steady in Asian trade, also weighed on oil as it makes dollar-traded fuel imports more costly for countries using other currencies.
“There’s not too much to be cheery about on oil markets today,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA. “Barring new inputs to adjust price expectations, both contracts are in grave danger of fully unwinding their Saudi attack rallies and retesting their pre-attack lows, around $60.00 (for Brent) and $54.00 (for WTI).”

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold recovers after sharp fall; strong dollar caps gains

3-4 minutes - Source: CNBC




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One kilogram gold bars are displayed for a photograph at the YLG Bullion International headquarters in Thailand on January 13, 2016.
Dario Pignatelli | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold prices rose on Thursday after a near 2% slide in the previous session triggered buying interest for the safe-haven metal, although a strengthening U.S. dollar capped gains.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,510.30 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were up 0.2% at $1,514.90.
“We are seeing increasing volumes in the exchange-traded funds (ETF) to position gold on yesterday’s sell-off. This goes to show that these dips are being bought by investors,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.
Reflecting investors’ sentiment in gold, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, jumped to 924.94 tonnes on Wednesday, up 1.8% from the previous day.
However, denting gold’s appeal, the dollar firmed near three-week peak after political uncertainties in the U.S. stemming from an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump drove investors to the safety of the greenback.
A U.S. House Intelligence Committee on Thursday released a declassified version of a whistleblower report alleging that President Donald Trump used his office to solicit interference in the 2020 presidential election from a foreign country.
The fresh developments in an inquiry into the impeachment of Trump sent U.S. stock indexes and Treasury yields lower offseting positive trade signals from China.
Earlier in the day, Beijing said it was in close communication with the United States and was preparing to make progress with their trade talks in October.
“The weakening global economic data and political risks should keep stimulus strong from the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and People’s Bank of China,” Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note.
“Once this consolidation period ends, we could see gold target the $1,600 level.”
U.S. business investment contracted more sharply than previously estimated in the second quarter and corporate profit growth was tepid, casting a shadow on an economy that is being stalked by financial market fears of a recession.
“We continue to be in the opinion that global growth signals are still weakening and the question is will that sap into the United States and prompt the Fed to cut rates more aggressive than the market currently anticipating,” TD Securities’ Ghali said.
Gold tends to appreciate on expectations of lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
On the technical front, spot gold is likely to fall to $1,488 an ounce after breaking support at $1,514, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
Elsewhere, silver rose 0.3% to $17.95 an ounce, platinum was up 0.8% at $932.83 and palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,663.30.

Sep 25, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold dips 1% as investors opt for dollar amid Trump probe

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




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One kilogram gold bars are displayed for a photograph at the YLG Bullion International headquarters in Thailand on January 13, 2016.
Dario Pignatelli | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold slid 1% on Wednesday, retreating from a multi-week peak, as political uncertainties in the United States stemming from an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump drove investors to the safety of the dollar, limiting bullion’s appeal.
Spot gold fell 1.2% to $1,513.75 per ounce. On Tuesday, prices hit their highest since Sept. 5 at $1,535.60. U.S. gold futures were down 1.3% at $1,520.70.
The dollar index hit a two-week high on safe haven interest amongst investors looking to hedge against risks emanating from the inquiry into Trump accusing him of seeking foreign help to smear Democratic rival Joe Biden ahead of next year’s election, in turn limiting the appeal of the traditional haven, gold.
“It (gold’s pullback) started out with the strength in the dollar weakening the metals and crude; the dollar seems to be a haven,” said George Gero, managing director at RBC Wealth Management.
Gold, however, will continue to be supported “because besides the impeachment worries, everywhere the investor looks, he sees nothing but new worries which support gold prices like continuation of Middle East problems, tariff talks with China etc.”
Adding to an increasingly fragile backdrop on the global geopolitical front, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday announced the United States is imposing sanctions on certain Chinese entities for knowingly transferring oil from Iran.
“The major underlying factor holding gold near highs is the debt that is out there with all these countries and negative interest rates ... so when you have that, you need to own gold, what else are you going to use to hedge inflation,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors.
“You can use bitcoin, but gold is un-hackable; bitcoin can be hacked, gold is the un-hackable bitcoin.”
Also on the radar was the long drawn U.S.-China trade dispute, Trump delivering a stinging rebuke to China’s trade practices in a speech on Tuesday, saying he would not accept a “bad deal” in the negotiations.
However, U.S. stock indexes hit session highs after Trump said a trade deal with China could happen sooner than expected.

Sep 23, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold hits 2-week high on growth fears, palladium scales new peak

3 minutes - Source : CNBC




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An employee arranges gold bars for a photograph at the YLG Bullion International headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand on January 13, 2016.
Dario Pignatelli | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold rose on Monday to its highest in over two weeks as weak economic data from the euro zone stoked global recession fears and forced investors to seek refuge in bullion, while palladium soared to a record on a sustained supply shortfall.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,524.71 per ounce, after hitting its highest since Sept. 6. U.S. gold futures rose 1.1% to $1,532.40 an ounce.
“The weak German PMI numbers gave a little bit of a shock to the stock market and led investors into safety like gold and silver,” said Phillip Streible, senior commodities strategist at RJO Futures.
Gold could hit $1,550 in this supportive environment of “weak interest rates, increasing geopolitical risks, no (trade) agreement with China and weak data that shows we are slipping into recession,” Streible added.
German private sector activity shrank for the first time in 6-1/2 years in September as a manufacturing recession deepened unexpectedly and growth in the service sector lost momentum, while euro zone business growth stalled, a survey showed on Monday.
Meanwhile, better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing PMI data helped stock markets pare some losses, but failed to dent gold’s upward momentum.
Investors are also keeping a close eye on U.S.-China trade ties, after a Chinese agriculture delegation cancelled their visit to U.S. farm states, adding to the uncertainty in the drawn-out dispute that has weighed on the global economy.
Adding to geopolitical tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday approved sending American troops to bolster Saudi Arabia’s air and missile defenses after the largest-ever attack on the kingdom’s oil facilities.
Meanwhile, palladium prices soared to a record high of $1,664.50 an ounce. The autocatalyst metal has risen nearly 8% or about $115 so far this month.
“People are starting to realize that auto sales and production outside of China is actually not so bad and so demand from the industrial sector is stronger that what people thought,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.
“In addition to that, there are a lot of investors moving in that market and in such a small, illiquid market, it doesn’t take a lot of investors to drive the price higher.”
Elsewhere, silver gained 3.5% to $18.61 per ounce and platinum rose 1.8% to $962.55.

Sep 19, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold gains support from weaker dollar after less-dovish Fed

3-4 minutes - Source: CNBC




GP: Gold and Silver Casting at the Perth Mint 190620
An employee arranges one kilogram gold bars at the Perth Mint Refinery in Perth, Australia, on Aug. 9, 2018.
Carla Gottgens | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold prices gained on Thursday, helped by a weaker dollar and as investors looked for clarity on future U.S. interest rates after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled a higher bar to further reductions in borrowing costs.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $1,497.30 per ounce, after falling to $1,484.16, a one-week low, in the previous session. U.S. gold futures dipped 0.7% to $1,504.90 an ounce.
“The dollar has started to come off and provide some relief (to gold prices) and if so, you’re going to see some buying come in, prices of gold will move higher,” said Alex Turro, market strategist at RJO Futures.
“The outlook as far as Fed Chairman Powell and the Fed is concerned, you’re going to be looking out to October. The committee was divided, the rhetoric really didn’t provide a clear path moving forward as far as the economy is concerned.”
The Fed cut interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday to help sustain economic expansion, but signaled a higher bar to further reductions as the labor market remained strong.
Helping bullion, the dollar index dipped against a major basket of currencies, as it struggled to gain in the face of the less dovish Fed meeting.
Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
“They cut rates, the messaging was a little bit more hawkish than the market is anticipating. A major portion of the market is expecting a cut in October or, at least one more before the year end,” said Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
However, “longer term you still have overall dovish stance across all central banks.”
Central banks from around the world face increasing pressure to offer monetary support as the U.S.-China trade war hurts global growth.
Gold also witnessed some safe haven demand after Iran warned the United States against any direct combat in the Middle East following an attack on Saudi oil facilities that Washington and Riyadh blamed on Tehran.
Separately, palladium climbed 2% to $1,625.79, hovering close to the record peak of $1,626.81 touched on Monday.
“Palladium is getting an extra bit of the bid as the market becomes less worried about the industrial outlook,” TD Securities’ McKay said.
“The overall optimism on trade has people less concerned on the industrial front but ultimately the positive precious metals environment continues throughout the whole bunch.”
U.S. and Chinese deputy trade negotiators were set to resume face-to-face talks for the first time in nearly two months on Thursday.
Silver edged 0.1% higher to $17.76 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.9% to $938.96.

Sep 18, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold holds above $1,500, eyes Fed decision

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




GP: Gold and Silver Casting at the Perth Mint 190918
Gold bars sit in a vault at the Perth Mint Refinery in Perth, Australia, on August 9, 2018.
Carla Gottgens | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold edged higher on Wednesday, holding above the key $1,500 per ounce level, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, when the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,506.98 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% to $1,514.90.
“All eyes are now on the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and the gold market has been pretty sensitive to FOMC and Fed policy this year, so the expectations of a rate cut are supportive for gold,” said James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC.
The Fed interest rate decision is due at 2 p.m. with investors largely pricing in a quarter-point cut, with focus on forward guidance as the central bank policymakers are deeply divided on the need for further easing as U.S. economic data improves.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be expected to explain the central bank’s position in a news conference after the rate decision.
“Market is going to look for plans for rate cuts down the road. If (Fed’s) their language alludes to the fact that there’s another cut coming in between October and December, then gold and silver will benefit greatly,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
“But if they err on the side of caution with rates, gold and silver will most likely sell-off for a few sessions before finding some support.”
Investors also focused on the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Thursday.
A Reuters poll suggests the BOJ will keep its policy on hold, 28 of 41 economists expect it will ease its policy this year and 13 believe it may surprise by taking action at the meeting.
Lower interest rates weigh on the dollar, bond yields and decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, while the dollar held steady against a basket of major currencies.
Meanwhile, limiting safe-haven inflows into bullion, oil prices pulled back, having jumped nearly 15% earlier this week following attacks on production facilities in Saudi Arabia, after the major producer said it would restore its output by month-end.
Gold is considered a hedge against oil-led inflation.
Among other precious metals, silver slipped 0.6% to $17.91 an ounce, while platinum dropped 1.1% to $933.10 and palladium fell 0.7% to $1,587.78.

Sep 17, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold edges higher as investors await Fed policy decision

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




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Gold bars sit in a vault at the Perth Mint Refinery, operated by Gold Corp., in Perth, Australia, on Thursday, Aug. 9, 2018.
Carla Gottgens | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold rose on Tuesday, propped up by expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but traded within a relatively narrow range as investors awaited further clarity on the U.S. central bank’s stance on future monetary policy.
Spot gold was trading 0.5% higher to $1,505.26 per ounce.  U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,513.20 an ounce.
“What you have is traders positioning in gold right now trying to prep themselves for the Fed meeting,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors.
The Fed is widely expected to announce a rate cut when it concludes a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. It would be the central bank’s second such cut after lowering rates in July for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
A Fed rate cut this week could put pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease policy on Thursday.
Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
“If the Fed underwhelms, or doesn’t cut rates, you’d probably see a good drop in gold. If they do come out and surprise everybody by cutting 50 bps (basis points) instead of 25, you might see a good pop in gold,” Matousek added.
On Monday, gold rose more than 1% before settling 0.6% up for the day after attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia over the weekend intensified worries about stability in the Middle East, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to apply more pressure on the Fed to lower rates.
The attacks likely will spur more safe-haven demand in the near term, Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst with Kitco Metals, said in a note.
“The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are not likely to just sit on their hands, which will keep anxiety in the world marketplace.”
Meanwhile, equity markets were lower, with investors remaining noncommittal ahead of the Fed’s decision and the next round of U.S.-China trade talks on Thursday.
Gold prices have climbed nearly 19%, or more than $200, since touching a 2019 low of $1,265.85 in early May, supported by an increasingly dovish stance from major central banks, escalation in the U.S.-China trade war and Middle East tensions.
Elsewhere, silver was up 0.8% at $17.99 an ounce and platinum rose 0.5% to $941.71.
Palladium fell 0.2% to $1,601.72 after touching a record high of $1,626.81 in the previous session.

Sep 16, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold rises 1% on global turmoil — but silver surges more

Saheli Roy Choudhury



Gold and silver prices jumped more than 1% on Monday as investors fled to safe-haven assets after an attack on Saudi oil facilities raised concerns over global energy supply and ratcheted tensions in the Middle East.
Spot gold jumped 1.27% to $1,507.40 per ounce while U.S. gold futures rose 0.83% to $1,512.1. The gold-backed SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund was down 0.82% at $140.15, with 874.51 tonnes of gold in trust on Friday.
Like gold, silver is seen as a safe-haven investment but the metal is also used in the production of consumer electronics goods as well as in the industrial sector, such as solar panels. Spot silver gained 2.96% to $17.94 per ounce.
The moves came after Saudi Arabia on Saturday shut down half its oil production after a series of strikes hit the world’s largest oil processing facility. The attack was claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels and the Trump administration has blamed Iran.
That closure is set to affect almost 5.7 million barrels of crude production a day, according to Saudi Aramco. That’s about 5% of the world’s daily oil production. In August, Saudi Arabia produced 9.85 million barrels per day, according to the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The Kingdom’s energy minister said the attacks also led to a halt in gas production, which is set to reduce the supply of ethane and natural gas liquids by 50%.
U.S. crude and Brent prices jumped more than 9% each Monday morning during Asian hours.
The attack raised tensions in the Middle East after the United States blamed Tehran for the strikes, and called it an “unprecedented attack on world’s energy supply.” For his part, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is “locked and loaded,” but his administration is waiting on Riyadh to determine who launched the strikes before proceeding on a course of action. Iran has dismissed those allegations as “meaningless.”
Elsewhere, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and markets expect the central bank to cut interest rates by a quarter point.
Global growth outlook remains subdued amid the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, which could potentially sustain demand for safe-haven assets. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in a recent interview that it is “very difficult” for the world’s second-largest economy to maintain a growth rate at 6% or more.

Sep 9, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold dips to 2-week low as risk sentiment improves, yields gain

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




Reusable: Gold bullion bars and coins 030109
Gold bullion bars and coins.
Getty Images
Gold fell to an over two-week low on Monday, briefly breaking below the key $1,500 support, as renewed risk appetite and gaining U.S. yields outweighed support for bullion from expectations for interest rate reductions by top central banks.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,502.47 per ounce. The metal touched $1,497.30, its lowest since Aug. 23. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,510.70.
Higher U.S. Treasury yields and a “bit of a renewed risk appetite” are weighing on gold, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities in Toronto.
“Gold positions are extremely long right now so its not particularly surprising that we’re seeing some profit-taking and extension of short exposures right now. ... The market got a little bit ahead and it’s paring back that attitude.”
Speculators increased their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts in the week to Sept. 3, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
U.S. Treasury yields rose while stock markets gained on expectations that global central banks will launch stimulus measures to support their economies.
Risk sentiment was also lifted on Friday after China said it would slash the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, while U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would continue to “act as appropriate” to sustain economic expansion.
Traders see a high chance of a quarter percentage point cut to interest rates in the Fed’s September policy meeting . The European Central Bank is also expected to cut rates later this week.
On the flip side, analysts said the lower interest rates would keep gold supported.
Lower interest rates decreases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
Meanwhile, the dollar eased against a basket of major currencies.
“Across the world, you have so much negative rates, which is a big catalyst for gold and that’s not going away anytime soon,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors.
Spot gold is expected to test technical support at $1,497 per ounce. A break below that could cause a further fall to $1,453, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
Silver slipped 0.8% to $18.02 per ounce, after falling to a near two-week low of $17.89 in the session.
Palladium was up 0.7% at $1,546.78 per ounce after hitting $1,562.27, while platinum fell 0.3% to $947.05.

Sep 6, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold | Gold Price Report: Gold rebounds on weaker US jobs growth, eyes weekly gain

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




Reusable: Gold jewelry in shop
Gold turned positive on Friday, after falling as much as 1% earlier, as a weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report weighed on the dollar and increased appetite for safe-haven bullion, putting it on course for a weekly gain.
Spot gold was up 0.1% to $1,519.96 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $1,526.5.
The U.S. Labor Department’s monthly employment report showed job growth slowed more than expected in August, with retail hiring declining for a seventh month.
The dollar also dipped following the payrolls data, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
“Today’s jobs number missed expectations, causing gold to bounce higher. It just lends more credence to the fact that the job numbers are getting a little softer and it supports another rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
Federal fund futures implied that traders saw a 96% chance for a 25 basis-point rate cut from a current rate of 2.00-2.25% by the U.S. central bank this month.
Uncertainties around U.S.-China trade ties, fears of a deceleration in global economic growth and negative Treasury yields around the world were further supporting bullion, analysts said.
However, a planned resumption of trade talks between Washington and Beijing, and robust U.S. economic data on Thursday did re-ignite some appetite for riskier assets, pushing gold down more than 2% in the previous session.
“One move lower like what we saw on Thursday is not going to change the overall trend and what central banks are doing with interest rates, which over time is going to push gold higher,” Haberkorn said.
Bullion has risen about 19% so far this year.
On the technical front, “strong support remains at the $1,470 to $1,500 range, but it seems gold will settle comfortably above $1,500 for the week,” OANDA’s senior market analyst Edward Moya said in a note.
Other precious metals also pared losses with silver turning positive after falling over 3% earlier in the session, following Thursday’s 4.8% slump.
Silver was up 0.1% to $18.65 an ounce and was headed for its fifth straight weekly gain.
Platinum fell 0.1%, to $957.04, having shed about 3% earlier in the session, while palladium fell 0.7% to $1,548.50.

Sep 4, 2019

Futures & Commodities I Gold I Gold Price Report: Gold steadies near multi-year peak as US yields slip

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




Reusable:  Lussory Gold by Lootah Premium Foods
Lussory Gold by Lootah Premium Foods
Source: Lootah Premium Foods
Gold on Wednesday steadied near its highest in over six years as focus returned to economic woes with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields slumping to a three-year low, while a slight improvement in risk sentiment slowed bullion’s advance.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,551.14 per ounce, near last week’s $1,554.56, its highest since April 2013. U.S. gold futures settled $4.40 higher at $1,560.40.
“Gold can move a bit higher, a big driving macro force is the decline in global yields, which seems to be spreading. When you have gold, at least you can get your money back if prices change. If you buy sovereign bonds, you won’t get your money back,” said Edward Meir, analyst at INTL FCStone.
U.S. Treasury yields fell as the benchmark 10-year yield hit its lowest since July 2016, after U.S. manufacturing data showed the first contraction since 2016 on worries about a weakening global economy and U.S.-China trade tensions.
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday that he would be “tougher” on Beijing in a second term as president if talks dragged on.
However, global stock markets gained after a parliamentary vote raised chances of another delay to Brexit while a political gridlock in Italy seemed to have eased.
Investors also kept a close watch on developments in Hong Kong, after the region’s leader Carrie Lam withdrew a controversial extradition bill that had triggered months of violent protests in the Asian financial hub. However, some lawmakers said it still remains uncertain if this action would help end the protests.
Meanwhile, traders fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting later this month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.
Indicative of sentiment, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to 890.04 tonnes on Tuesday, their highest since November 2016.
Spot silver rose 0.8% to $19.38 per ounce, after hitting $19.57 earlier, its highest since September 2016.
“It (silver) has climbed further to a three-year high of $19.6 per troy ounce this morning, bringing the psychologically important $20 mark into reach. Silver is continuing to outperform gold the gold/silver ratio has dropped below 80 for the first time in over a year,” Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note.

Sep 3, 2019

Futures & Commodities I Gold I Gold Price Report: Gold, silver surge after weak US data compounds slowdown fears

3 minutes - Source: CNBC




Reusable: Gold bars S.S. Central America shipwreck salvage
Gold rose more than 1% on Tuesday after weak manufacturing data from the United States reinforced fears of an economic downturn, while uncertainties over U.S.-China trade ties and Brexit further boosted bullion’s safe-haven appeal.
Meanwhile, silver followed gold’s rally to jump 3% while breaching the $19 mark for the first time since October 2016 at $19.07 per ounce.
Spot gold rose 1.1% to $1,547.70 per ounce, not far off its more than six-year high of $1,554.56. U.S. gold futures surged 1.8% to $1,557.20.
Renewing fears of a sharp economic slowdown and weighing on risk sentiment, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in three years in August.
Weak manufacturing data “will further embolden the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to need to be aggressive with rate cuts,” said Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
“Equities are on the back foot, that’s what’s keeping gold higher. There’s a lot of uncertainty on the Brexit front, politics in Italy, protests in Hong Kong as well - a lot of stuff that’s positive for gold.”
Gold also shook off mild pressure from the dollar earlier in the session, with the U.S. unit holding gains versus other major currencies.
“Dollar is also being seen as a safe-haven asset ... Even Treasuries are up, dollar is up, silver is up, gold is up - it’s all the safe-haven assets up together,” said Phillip Streible, senior commodities strategist at RJO Futures.
Meanwhile, European currencies such as the euro and pound have dipped against the dollar as traders remain wary of developments surrounding Britain’s imminent exit from the European Union and Italy’s political turmoil.
In Britain, lawmakers began a bid to stop Prime Minister Boris Johnson from pursuing a no-deal Brexit.
On the trade front, China has lodged a complaint at the World Trade Organization over U.S. import duties, trashing the latest tariff actions as violating the consensus reached by leaders of both countries at a meeting in Osaka.
“Gold has aggressively priced in Fed rate cuts. With little opportunity cost in holding gold and growing economic uncertainty tied to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, investor appetite for the yellow metal has grown,” BNP Paribas analysts wrote in a note, forecasting average gold prices to climb above $1,600 driven by the Fed’s monetary easing cycle.
Federal fund futures implied traders saw a 91% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this month.
Meanwhile, platinum rose 2.5% to $953.25 per ounce, while palladium was up 0.1% at $1,532.75 per ounce.

Aug 29, 2019

Futures & Commodities I Gold I Gold Price Report: Gold firms as slowdown fears linger; positive trade vibes cap gains

2-3 minutes - Source: CNBC




RT: Gold jewelry store 150727
A Jordanian goldsmith places gold chains for display at his jewelry shop in Amman, Jordan.
Muhammad Hamed | Reuters
Gold firmed near a multi-year peak on Thursday as fragile sentiment over the global economy boosted safe havens, while positive signals on U.S.-China trade buoyed risk sentiment and capped bullion’s advance.
Other precious metals also rallied, with silver hitting its highest in more than two years and platinum jumping 3%.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,541.64 per ounce, within sight of its highest level since April 2013, the $1,554.56 hit on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,550.70 per ounce.
“A lot of traders out there feel that even though China came back and said that they want to talk calmly, nothing has really changed ... (Even) with the markets rallying, gold has been pretty much flat,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors.
Wall Street gained after China’s commerce ministry made comments indicating that Beijing was hopeful of a resolution to the long-standing trade dispute with the United States.
Gold held onto its gains even as recession fears eased after U.S. Treasury yields briefly extended their rise on data showing the world’s largest economy grew as expected in the second quarter.
The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central bank are widely expected to cut rates next month. Many investors believe the Bank of Japan could follow suit.
With the current economic weakness, “global central banks will be accommodative and that is supportive for gold,” said Jeff Klearman, portfolio manager at GraniteShares.
Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, have increased by 6.6% this month.
Spot silver rose 1.4% to $18.58 per ounce, after matching a high last seen in April 2017 of $18.65.
“Silver had lagged in performance for a long time and now it’s joining the ranks of safe-haven investments. It’s benefiting from that, and you see platinum doing the same thing,” said Klearman.
Platinum rose 3.8% to $934 per ounce after its highest since April 2018 at $935.12, while palladium rose 1.3% to $1,487.54 per ounce.

Aug 28, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Gold Price Report: Gold eases as investors book profits, dollar firms

3 minutes



RT: Gold Bullion bar 130423
A worker holds a gold bar in the Austrian Mint (Muenze Oesterreich) headquarters in Vienna.
Leonhard Foeger | Reuters
Gold eased on Wednesday on a stronger dollar and as investors locked profits following the more than 1% jump in the last session, but uncertainty over U.S.-China trade and the global economy kept safe-haven bullion near a multi-year peak.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,536.83 per ounce. On Monday it touched $1,554.56, its highest since April 2013. U.S. gold futures fell $2.70 to settle at $1,549.10 per ounce.
“We aren’t seeing any additional tensions. A lot of the news - the trade war and economic concerns - has been factored in by the market over the last few days,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, adding profit-taking following the rally in response to a firmer dollar was weighing on gold.
The dollar rose 0.2%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while U.S. stock markets moved into positive territory.
However, sentiment in wider markets remained fragile due to a sharper inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve, signaling a possible recession, and the lack of clarity on the U.S.-China trade front, which kept interest for safe havens intact.
“I do not see this (drop in gold prices) lasting for long as traders seem to be trying to buy dips in the precious metals right now and with the yield curve and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (current stance), expect that dip to be bought up fairly quickly,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
Federal funds futures implied traders saw a 91% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. central bank next month, and a 100 basis point cut within 2020.
Markets also kept a close eye on Britain’s planned exit from the European Union, with concerns of a hard Brexit heightened after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson dissolved the Parliament.
Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.7% to $18.29 per ounce, hitting its highest level since April 2017 earlier.
“There is not much at present to suggest that the demand for gold and silver might abate,” Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note.

Aug 27, 2019

Futures & Commodities I Gold I Gold Price Report: Gold gains on trade concerns, silver breaches $18/oz mark

3-4 minutes - Source: CNBC




RT: Gold products in a jewelry store 170511
A woman checks products in a gold and jewelery store in Corum, Turkey.
Umit Bektas | Reuters
Gold rose on Tuesday as investors sought cover from global uncertainties including the U.S.-China trade dispute, while silver latched on to bullion’s rally to breach the $18 an ounce mark for the first time in nearly two years.
Spot gold rose 1.1% to $1,542.7 per ounce.
However, gold prices shed nearly $30 from a high of $1,554.56 it hit on Monday, a level last seen in April 2013, after U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with China on the long-drawn tariff war have resumed.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 1% to $1,552.7.
While Trump’s comments that China had offered to resume trade talks assuaged some concerns in the wider financial markets, uncertainty prevailed as Beijing declined to confirm the assertion.
“We continue to have concerns about the global economy. The U.S. President’s deal with China is pending and that may be the rhetoric from the White House as opposed to an actual fact pointing to negotiation,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities in Toronto.
“We have a target of $1,586 for gold. There is a very good probability we will get there, not far in the distant future.”
The trade war between the world’s two largest economies has roiled markets since it began more than a year ago, triggering fears of a global economic slowdown. This helps gold, often considered a safer place to park assets during times of global uncertainty.
Adding to uncertainty over the health of the global economy, data showed Germany’s economy contracted on weaker exports in the second quarter. Also, U.S. home price growth cooled to its slowest in seven years.
Further supporting gold, the dollar eased, making the metal cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
“Gold is a strategic asset, from a risk-adjusted returns perspective, so amid heightened economic and geopolitical risk, we see it benefiting from its safe-haven status,” analysts at ANZ bank said in a research note.
Meanwhile, markets priced in a quarter-point cut in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month, and over 100 basis points of easing by the end of next year. Lower U.S. interest rates put pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
Elsewhere, silver extended gains for a third straight session, hitting its highest since September 2017.
“When gold does really well and gets quite expensive investors on the margin will move into silver... not a big surprise that silver is doing well,” TD Securities’ Melek said.
Platinum climbed 0.5% to $859.62 while palladium rose 0.4% to $1,479.48.

Aug 26, 2019

Futures & Commodities | Golds | Gold Price Report: Gold scales over 6-year peak on heightened trade, economic risks

3-4 minutes - Source: CNBC




RT: Gold Bullions 170616
Gold surged to a more than six-year peak on Monday, surpassing $1,550 in early trade, as investors sought safety from a host of uncertainties including heightened U.S.-China trade tensions and a fragile global economy.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,534.44 per ounce, paring gains to shed more than $20 from earlier in the session when the metal had jumped to its highest since April 2013 at $1,554.56. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to $1,544.50.
Meanwhile, gold in euro and Australian dollar hit record levels.
“There’s a great deal of uncertainty and instability in the global financial markets and economies. And in that kind of environment, investors are bouncing around so they are buying into gold and buying out of gold,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.
Washington announced last week an 5% additional duty on $550 billion in targeted Chinese goods, hours after China unveiled retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. products. Typically, gold is used as a place to park assets during times of global uncertainty.
The long-drawn trade war between the world’s two largest economies has roiled markets since its inception more than a year ago, triggering fears of a global slowdown.
Stock markets, however, recovered from lows after U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking on the sidelines of the G7 summit of world leaders in France, said Chinese officials had contacted U.S. trade counterparts overnight and offered to return to the negotiating table.
“Gold prices could fall a $100 very quickly if there were a resolution not only to the trade war but to other problems that are out there,” Christian said.
Data showed a modest rise in new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods in July while shipments fell by the most in nearly three years, pointing to continued weakness in business investment in the third quarter.
While monetary policy easing by central banks would be supportive for gold, “the single biggest risk to the recent gold rally would be central bank success, potentially added by fiscal stimulus or a détente in the trade dispute,” a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research note stated.
“Central Bank policy working out may in all likelihood provide a relatively more benign volatility environment, which in turn would challenge the current gold bull run.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the U.S. central bank will “act as appropriate” to keep the economy healthy.
Other precious metals gained as well, with silver up 2.1% at $17.75 an ounce, platinum and palladium each rising about 0.5% to $858.33 and $1,467.88 respectively.
Silver touched $17.77 an ounce earlier in the session, its highest since September 2017.

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