Skip to main content


Showing posts with the label Australian Economy

The government has been hit with a surplus. But what if the good times don't last?

Greg Jericho Here’s a story you might have heard before – it’s about a government who (to quote a former prime minister) got hit in the arse with a rainbow and decided to assume the good times would last forever, and while facing a massive electoral defeat handed out a swag of tax cuts which created a structural deficit in the budget. And then, surprisingly, the good times did not last forever. Yes, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it, and we saw this on Monday with the latest mid-year economic and fiscal outlook numbers. Oh, everything looks good. Surpluses for the next decade, don’t you know! Government net debt is now projected to decline to 1.5% of GDP by 2028-29. Never mind that in the 2014-15 budget net debt was predicted “to decline to 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2024-25”. This time we will be correct! Budget management is a bizarre thing that is determined mostly by dumb luck. Costello got hit with a mining boom and ma