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Bonds | Today'sTreasury Yields Report

                     On Wednesday 19, February 2020                                            

Treasury yields dip after Fed minutes highlight coronavirus risk

Yun Li

Treasury yields pared gains on Wednesday after Federal Reserve officials highlighted the risks from the deadly coronavirus in the minutes of their last policy meeting.
The yield the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, turned lower to trade little changed on the day at about 1.5619%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also flat at around 2.0031%.
Fed officials highlighted concerns at their most recent meeting about the coronavirus, the minutes showed, though the spread of the disease had just become an issue at the time of the meeting.
"Some trade uncertainties had diminished recently, and there were some signs of stabilization in global growth. Nonetheless, uncertainties about the outlook remained, including those posed by the outbreak of the coronavirus," the minutes released on Wednesday stated.
Yield were higher earlier in the session after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said producer price inflation in January came in above projections. Headline inflation rose 0.5% month over month, marking the highest since Oct. 2018.
Data on January housing starts was also stronger than expected across the board. U.S. homebuilding fell less than expected in January while permits surged to a near 13-year high, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.
Investors are also closely monitoring the coronavirus and its potential impact on the global economy. China's National Health Commission reported an additional 1,749 cases of the coronavirus nationwide, with 136 deaths. As of Feb. 18., the commission said there had been a total of 74,185 confirmed cases and 2,004 cumulative deaths.
"That Treasuries are only slightly weaker in response speaks to how data un-dependent trading has become as the broader question and focus remains on discerning the scale of the COVID-19 virus's negative consequences," Jon Hill, BMO's rates analyst, said in a note on Wednesday.
There are no major U.S. Treasury auctions scheduled on Wednesday.

—CNBC's Sam Meredith contributed reporting.                           

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On Tuesday 18, February 2020            

Treasury yields fall as coronavirus fears persist

Yun Li, Sam Meredith

Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors monitored the potential economic impact of China’s coronavirus outbreak.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, dropped four basis points to around 1.544%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 1.992%.
The 10-year Treasury yield also dipped below 3-month rate, sending a recession signal.
China’s National Health Commission on Tuesday reported an additional 98 deaths nationwide, with 1,886 new cases of the coronavirus. As of Feb. 17, the commission said there had been a total of 72,346 confirmed cases and 1,868 deaths.
On Monday, Apple warned it does not expect to meet its quarterly revenue forecast because of slowed production and weakened demand resulting from the coronavirus outbreak.
The largest company in the U.S. said that while all its iPhone manufacturing partner sites had reopened, they were “ramping up more slowly than we had anticipated.”
The revenue warning appeared to dent market sentiment, as investors returned to trade following a U.S. holiday on Monday.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $45 billion in 13-week bills, $39 billion in 26-week bills and $40 billion in 21-day bills.
Elsewhere, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will deliver remarks on the world’s largest economy at event in St. Paul, Minnesota on Tuesday.

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On Friday 14, February 2020        

Treasury yields fall after weak retail sales data spurs economic unease

Thomas Franck, Sam Meredith

U.S. government debt yields slipped on Friday after the U.S. government said that last month’s clothing sales represented the largest month-over-month decrease since March 2009.
The Commerce Department said on Friday that retail sales excluding automobiles, gas, building materials and food services were unchanged last month while data for December was revised downward to show so-called core sales up 0.2% instead of the 0.5% jump previously reported.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core retail sales rising 0.3% last month.
The lackluster retail data was enough to kindle modest unease on Wall Street before the opening of trade, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipping to 1.58%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell to 2.034% while the 2-year yield receded to 1.426%.

Treasurys





TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.579-0.0080.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.485-0.0080.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.43-0.0120.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.418-0.0220.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.588-0.0290.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.038-0.040.00
Market focus across asset classes on the week’s last day of trading was still largely centered on the spread of China’s virulent coronavirus.
Beijing for the first time on Friday announced information that underscored the risk taken by those helping treat the infected: 1,716 medical workers have contracted the disease while six of them have died.
China’s National Health Commission on Friday reported 5,090 new coronavirus cases and 121 new deaths in the prior 24 hours, bringing the total number infected to 63,851 and at least 1,380 dead. The sum in Hubei spiked on Thursday after authorities changed the criteria for counting new cases.
The U.S. has suggested it “does not have high confidence in the information” coming out of the world’s second-largest economy.

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On Thursday 13, February 2020       

Treasury yields fall after surge in reported coronavirus cases

Yun Li, Sam Meredith

Treasury yields fell on Thursday, following a sharp rise in the reported number of new coronavirus deaths.

Treasurys







TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5850.0080.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.4930.000.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.438-0.0040.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.434-0.0110.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.609-0.0180.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.065-0.0270.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 1.5763%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.0449%.
Market focus is largely attuned to China’s fast-spreading coronavirus, as investors continue to assess the potential economic fallout of the outbreak.
China confirmed 15,152 new cases of the flu-like virus on Thursday, with 254 additional deaths. That brings the country’s total death toll to 1,367 as the number of people infected hit 59,804, according to the government.
“A 15,000 person spike in coronavirus infections in Hubei province was more than sufficient to drive a modest global flight-to-quality, pushing 10-year yields back below 1.60%,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note Thursday.
Yields remained lower on Thursday after economic data showed tame inflation and a steady labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ended Feb. 8, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims fell in the prior week to 203,000, which was the lowest reading since November.
The consumer price index for January increased 0.1%, versus a 0.2% gain expected, according to Dow Jones.
Earlier in the week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank was “closely monitoring” the coronavirus, its impact on China and the effect it could have on global economic growth.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will both comment on the world’s largest economy at separate events later in the session.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $50 billion in four-week bills, $45 billion in eight-week bills and $19 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

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On Wednesday 12, February 2020                      

Treasury yields jump for a second day as investors return to risk assets

Yun Li, Sam Meredith

Treasury yields climbed for a second day on Wednesday as investors shrugged off the potential economic impact of China’s fast-spreading coronavirus.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, rose five basis points to around 1.634%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.093%.
The benchmark 10-year yield plunged about 40 basis points in January as the Chinese epidemic drove investors to safe assets.
Investors continued to keep an eye on the fast-spreading coronavirus. As of Tuesday evening, China’s National Health Commission reported that a total of 44,653 cases had been confirmed, with 1,113 deaths.
The outbreak, which has infected people in over two dozen countries, was described as a “very grave threat” to the world by the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday.
The WHO’s Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also told reporters at a news conference that the United Nations health agency had identified the flu-like virus as COVID-19. The CO stands for corona, the VI for virus and the D for disease, Tedros said.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell returned to Capitol Hill for a second day of testimony on monetary policy, the economy and financial statutes.
In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Powell said that the current, low level of interest rates is appropriate given tame inflation, low unemployment and modest economic growth.
On the data front, the Federal budget for January will be released at 2 p.m. ET. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will both comment on the world’s largest economy at separate events on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is set to auction $27 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday.

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On Tuesday 11, February 2020 

Treasury yields rise after Powell's first day of testimony on Capitol Hill

Thomas Franck,Sam Meredith


GP: Jerome Powell speaking 200129
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the January 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, in Washington, DC on January 29, 2020.
Mandel Ngan | AFP | Getty Images
U.S. government debt yields rose Tuesday as investors digested the first day of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to lawmakers about the state economic growth and employment in the United States.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher at around 1.585%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.05%. Bond yields rise as prices fall.
As part of the Fed chair’s semiannual report, Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that the central bank is on track to continue bill purchases and repo operations into the second quarter. The Fed began the unusual purchases last autumn to help calm the short-term plumbing that runs the financial market’s operating systems.
“Our expectation is that we will continue our bill purchases at least through—at least into the second quarter and continue repo operations at least through—into April,” Powell said Tuesday.
“As the underlying level of reserves rises due to our bill purchases, the need for repo will decline,” he added. “And sometime around the middle of the year we’ll reach that level of ample reserves.”
Markets were little changed earlier in the morning after the Fed released Powell’s 61-page semiannual report ahead of Powell’s oral testimony, where he discussed the current level of borrowing costs. The Fed attempts to maximize U.S. employment and keep prices stable through its adjustments to interest rates, which have remained near historic lows in recent years.
But Powell cautioned that low interest rates, while a positive for business borrowing, could undermine the central bank’s ability to respond to an economic downturn in the future.
“This low interest rate environment may limit the ability of central banks to reduce policy interest rates enough to support the economy during a downturn,” he said. He is also expected to field questions from the U.S. Senate on Wednesday.
The Fed chair also said in prepared remarks that the central bank is “closely monitoring” the coronavirus, its impact on China and the effect it could take on global growth. Powell added that the disease’s ascent comes just as trade uncertainties have abated, though the U.S. economy appears “resilient” to global headwinds.
“As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy will likely remain appropriate,” Powell said.

Treasurys

Investors also continued to monitor coronavirus developments and the potential economic fallout of China’s fast-spreading disease. As of Monday night, China’s National Health Commission reported that a total of 42,638 cases had been confirmed, with 1,016 deaths.

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On Monday 10, February 2020    

Treasury yields fall as coronavirus fears linger

Yun Li, Silvia Amaro

Treasury yields fell on Monday as investors remain cautious about the deadly coronavirus.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, dipped three basis points to around 1.543%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.015%.
Traders continue to monitor the outbreak of the coronavirus. As of Sunday night, China said a total of 40,171 cases of coronavirus had been confirmed and 908 people had died, while 14 Americans have tested positive for the virus aboard a cruise ship quarantined in Japan. The death toll from the coronavirus has also overtaken that of the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s.

Treasurys















TICKERCOMPANYYIELDCHANGE%CHANGE
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.561-0.0030.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.467-0.020.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.375-0.0240.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.368-0.0330.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.549-0.0280.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.021-0.0210.00
Businesses are still being affected by the outbreak though China has lifted some of the restrictions on work and travel. Airbnb, for example, has suspended bookings for all listings in Beijing until February 29.
Chinese authorities lifted some coronavirus-related restrictions on work and travel, helping businesses resume work though overall sentiment was still jittery as the death toll from the epidemic climbed to above 900.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has fallen about 40 basis points in 2020 as the fears that the coronavirus would disrupt the global economy drove investors to safe-haven bonds.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump will unveil a new $4.8 trillion spending plan on Monday. He is expected to cut foreign aid and reduce social safety-net programs for the fiscal year of 2021, provided that he is re-elected later this year.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is set to auction $84 billion in 13 and 26-week bills.

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On Friday 7, February 2020                   

Treasury yields slide even after strong January jobs report

Yun Li

U.S. sovereign bond yields fell on Friday even as data showed U.S. jobs increased at stronger-than-expected pace in January.

Treasurys

















TICKERCOMPANYYIELDCHANGE%CHANGE
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.566-0.0080.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.49-0.0160.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.401-0.0460.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.404-0.0560.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.582-0.0620.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.046-0.0680.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, fell six basis points to around 1.585%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 2.048%.
The Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 225,000 jobs last month, beating a Dow Jones estimate of 158,000 nonfarm payrolls for January. Still, yields moved lower on the strong number.
“You could argue this is a reflection of people taking advantage of cheapness in Treasurys. In other words, buy the dip because of the coronavirus risk,” said Jon Hill of BMO. “Overall it was generally strong print. Not a complete one sided blowout.”
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said bonds responded to lower unemployment rate.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6% as the labor force participation rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 63.4%, matching its highest level since June 2013, the Labor Department said Friday.
“The Treasury market (yields down) is honing in on the slight rise in the unemployment rate because it is notable changes here that has a statistically significant influence on the direction of the economy,” Boockvar said in a note.
Investors also closely monitored the developments on the coronavirus. China’s National Health Commission on Friday confirmed 31,131 cases of the deadly pneumonia-like virus in the country, with 636 deaths.
There are no Treasury auctions due on Friday.
—CNBC’s Matt Clinch and Patti Domm contributed to this article.

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On Thursday 6, February 2020                

Treasury yields rise slightly after better-than-expected jobs data

Yun Li, Sam Meredith

Treasury yields rose slightly on Thursday as traders digested the weekly jobs claims number which came in better than expected.

Treasurys





















TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5690.0070.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.5030.0080.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.4490.0080.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.4650.0050.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.6490.000.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.119-0.0140.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, climbed slightly to around 1.655%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was flat at around 2.125%.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended Feb. 1, the lowest reading since last April, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
Yields also got a boost earlier in the session after China announced it would halve tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. imports. China’s Ministry of Finance said Thursday that U.S. goods with a tariff rate of 10% would be reduced to 5%, while products that have a tariff rate of 5% would fall to 2.5%.
The move, which is set to take effect from Feb. 14, was made in order to “advance the healthy and stable development” of trade between the world’s two largest economies, according to a statement on the ministry’s website.
It comes as Beijing continues to grapple with the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak, with many market participants concerned about the potential economic fallout.
China’s National Health Commission on Thursday confirmed 28,018 cases of the pneumonia-like virus in the country, with 563 deaths.
Earlier this week, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported nearly 200 cases of the coronavirus in at least 23 countries outside of China. The WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $50 billion in four-week bills and $45 billion in eight-week bills.

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On Wednesday 5, February 2020        

10-year Treasury yield rises for a third day to above 1.6%

Yun Li, Sam Meredith

The benchmark 10-year rose for a third day on Wednesday as investors returned to risk assets following a steep sell-off last week sparked by fears about the fast-spreading coronavirus.

Treasurys























TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.572-0.0020.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.4930.0080.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.4430.0280.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.4650.0430.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.6540.0530.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.1380.0580.00
The yield the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, climbed three basis points to about 1.637%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.111%.
Yields turned higher after strong jobs data boosted investor sentiment. The jobs market adding 291,000 in private payrolls for the best monthly gain since May 2015, according to a report Wednesday from ADP and Moody’s Analytics. That was also well above the 150,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
Investors continued to closely monitor the China virus which has caused at least 490 deaths in the country. Optimism was rising on a breakthrough in fighting the coronavirus after reports overnight said a Chinese TV media outlet had reported that a research team at Zhejiang University had found an effective drug. CNBC has not verified the media reports.
China’s National Health Commission on Wednesday confirmed 24,324 cases of the coronavirus in the country. The outbreak of the deadly pneumonia-like virus, which was thought to have originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has been recognized as a global health emergency by the World Health Organization.
As of Monday, the United Nations’ health agency reported nearly 200 cases of the virus in at least 23 countries outside of China.
Speaking during his State of the Union address on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was “working closely” with the Chinese government on the outbreak.
On the data front, ADP employment figures for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
International trade data for December, a final reading of services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for January and the latest and ISM non-manufacturing will follow slightly later in the session.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard will comment on the world’s largest economy at an event in California on Wednesday afternoon.
There are no major U.S. Treasury auctions scheduled on Wednesday.

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On Tuesday 4, February 2020                    

Treasury yields pop as investors return to risk assets

Yun Li, Silvia Amaro

Treasury yields jumped on Tuesday as investors returned to risk assets after a deep sell-off last week triggered by the deadly coronavirus.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, jumped six basis points to around 1.5829%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.0607%.

Treasurys



























TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.574-0.0050.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.480.0210.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.4110.0580.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.4170.0740.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.5970.0770.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.0760.0790.00
Global stock markets are seeing a rebound after last week’s sell-off on coronavirus fears. The gains came after after a Reuters report said China’s central bank could cut its key lending rate as well as banks’ reserve requirement ratios in the coming weeks to support economic growth.
“Any incoming information on the spread of virus is the most prudent course of action,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note on Tuesday.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data boosted investor sentiment on Monday, leading to lower bond prices.
Furthermore, bond investors are waiting for the results from Iowa caucuses, which were delayed late Monday night. The Democratic Party said there has been a “reporting issue.”
President Trump is due to deliver his State of the Union speech at 9 p.m. ET.
On the data front, there will be factory orders at 10 a.m. E.T. Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and World Bank Group President David Malpass are due to speak at 9.30 a.m. ET.
There are no auctions scheduled.

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On Monday 3, February 2020                        

Treasury yields jump on strong manufacturing data

Yun Li, Sam Meredith

Treasury yields rose for the first time in four sessions on Monday as stronger-than-expected manufacturing data boosted investor sentiment.

Treasurys





























TICKER COMPANY YIELD CHANGE %CHANGE
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5640.010.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.4640.020.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.3550.0260.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.3460.0210.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.5240.0050.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.002-0.010.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, jumped 5 basis points to 1.554%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.041%. The 10-year yield has fallen about 30 basis points in the past two weeks.
Investors returned to the stock market after the S&P 500 suffered its biggest one-day drop since October on Friday. The benchmark is up more than 1% on Monday as investors reassessed the risk of the fast-spreading coronavirus
Data out Monday showed the U.S. manufacturing sector is in the midst of recovery, boosting investors’ risk appetite. A final reading of manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January came in at 50.9, topping economists’ estimate of 48.5. Any reading above 50 signals an expansion.
“Treasuries extended their selloff,” Jon Hill, BMO’s U.S. rates strategist, said in a note. “Any further bearish momentum will eventually come against an opening gap between 1.665% and 1.684% which hasn’t yet been fully closed.”
China’s National Health Commission confirmed on Monday that there have been 17,205 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the country, with 361 deaths. The number of deaths in mainland China as a result of the virus has now surpassed that of the SARS epidemic, which lasted from 2002 to 2003.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recognized the deadly pneumonia-like virus as a global health emergency last week, citing concern that the outbreak continues to spread to other countries with weaker health systems.
WHO’s designation was issued in order to help the United Nations health agency mobilize financial and political support to contain the outbreak.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will comment on the world’s largest economy at an event in San Diego, California on Monday.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $45 billion in 13-week bills and $39 billion in 26-week bills.

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On Friday 31, January 2020                  

Rates plunge in January and part of the yield curve inverts again

Yun Li

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was on track to post its biggest monthly drop since August as the deadly coronavirus fanned recession fears.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, fell slightly to 1.548% Friday. The yield has tumbled nearly 40 basis points in January, on pace for its biggest monthly decline in five months.
The 10-year yield also dipped below the three-month Treasury rate of 1.552%, inverting a key part of the yield curve.
The so-called yield curve inversion has been a strong sign since 1950 that a recession is coming in the next 12 months. This part of the yield curve is also closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs of an economic downturn.
Markets have been spooked by the outbreak, with investors trying to assess the potential economic fallout.China’s National Health Commission confirmed on Friday that there have been 9,692 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, with 213 deaths.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recognized the deadly pneumonia-like virus as a global health emergency on Thursday, citing concern that the outbreak continues to spread to other countries with weaker health systems.
On the data front, personal income for December disappointed on the margin with a 0.2% month-over-month increase, versus a 0.3% growth anticipated. On the other hand, personal spending matched estimates at 0.3% last month.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January and a final reading of consumer sentiment for January will follow slightly later in the session.
—CNBC’s Sam Meredith and Matt Clinch contributed to this article.

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On Thursday 30, January 2020

Part of yield curve inverts as 3-month rate tops 10-year

Yun Li


RT: Traders NYSE active 2000124
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening bell in New York, January 24, 2020.
Lucas Jackson | Reuters
The bond market sent a recession signal on Thursday as China’s fast-spreading coronavirus reignited fears of an economic downturn.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dipped four basis points to 1.546%, falling below the three-month Treasury rate briefly, inverting part of the yield curve that the Federal Reserve watches closely. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The three-month Treasury yield was last trading at 1.554%
The so-called yield curve inversion has been a strong sign since 1950 that a recession is coming in the next 12 months. A more widely monitored part of the yield curve — the gap between the two-year and 10-year yields — inverted last summer when the U.S.-China trade war escalated.
But the Federal Reserve has been known to watch the three-month and 10-year yield gap as well.
“Some of this narrowing is certainly due to worries about the virus but also on the belief within the Treasury market that a growth inflection higher of note in 2020 is not going to happen,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said in a note.
Yields extended losses even after data showed the U.S. economy grew 2.1% in the fourth quarter, matching expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its meeting this week. The decision followed three consecutive reductions to borrowing costs in 2019.
During a press conference following the rates decision, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is “very carefully monitoring” the situation with the fast-spreading coronavirus.
Chinese health officials confirmed there had been 7,711 cases of the deadly pneumonia-like virus at the end of Wednesday, with 170 deaths.
The coronavirus, which was first discovered in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has since spread to other major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Macao and Hong Kong.
Financial markets have been spooked by the outbreak, with investors trying to assess the potential economic fallout.
The World Health Organization’s (WHO) Emergency Committee is set to reconvene on Thursday, with officials poised to decide whether the international spread of the virus constitutes a global health emergency.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $45 billion in four-week bills and $45 billion in eight-week bills on Thursday.
— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed reporting.

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On Wednesday 29, January 2020

10-year Treasury yield dips below 1.6% after Fed leaves rates unchanged

Yun Li

Treasury yields remained lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, fell five basis points to around 1.585%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.048%. The gap between the three-month and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to less than three basis points Wednesday.

Treasurys



































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.556-0.0160.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.509-0.0210.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.415-0.0420.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.409-0.0570.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.589-0.0520.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.045-0.050.00
The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to hold interest rate steady in a range between 1.5%-1.75% at the conclusion of its policy meeting Wednesday.
“The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective,” policymakers said in a statement.
During a press conference following the rates decision, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is “very carefully monitoring” the situation with the fast-spreading coronavirus.
“The whole curve is falling,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. “Yields really started to fall once he [Powell] got to podium and when he talked about the Chinese virus and all of its negatives. That’s when the bond market started to tail off It’s reignited recession fears.”
This week’s decision marked the second straight meeting the Fed has kept the benchmark funds rate unchanged after cutting borrowing cost three times in 2019. The Fed, however, did adjust the interest it pays on funds stored at the central bank on Wednesday. The central bank hiked the interest on excess reserves rate 5 basis points to 1.6%.
Investors also kept an close eye on the coronavirus developmentsChinese authorities confirmed that the death toll has risen to 132 and the number of total cases has reached 5,974. Global investors have shown concerns about the impact of the virus on the overall economy. The White House has reportedly told airlines that it is considering suspending all flights from China to the U.S.
On the data front, data showed pending home sales, which measure signed contracts, not closings, dropped 4.9% in December compared with November, as the supply of homes hit a record low during  the month. Sales were projected to rise 1% month-to-month.
— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed to this report.

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On Tuesday 28, January 2020                     

Treasury yields rise after stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment

Yun Li, Sam Meredith

Treasury yields climbed on Tuesday following a rally for fixed income assets amid intensifying concerns over the Chinese coronavirus.

Treasurys





































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5720.0050.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.5440.0030.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.4610.0260.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.4710.0340.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.6490.0440.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.1010.0460.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, rose about four basis points to around 1.646%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.098%.
Rates climbed higher after data showed consumer confidence in the U.S. grew more than expected in January. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 131.6 this month from 126.5 in December. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected consumer confidence to rise to 128.
However, earlier in the session, the three-month Treasury bill briefly inverted with the 10-Treasury note for the first time since October Tuesday morning.
“We don’t think the move in rates and the yield curve is reflective of the U.S. economy going into recession,” Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. “We just think it’s reflective of the fact that now the market is nervous off the back of the coronavirus.”
Treasury yields had fallen in the past week on increased coronavirus fears as Chinese authorities confirmed that there were now more than 4,500 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 106 deaths.
Multiple cases of the deadly pneumonia-like virus have been confirmed in Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Australia, France and the United States. Germany, Cambodia and Sri Lanka all reportedly confirmed their first cases of the virus on Monday.
The rapid outbreak of the coronavirus spooked financial markets in the previous session, with stock markets around the world sharply lower.

Fed meeting, auctions

Investors are likely to closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s first meeting of the year on Tuesday, with the U.S. central bank’s two-day meeting widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.5-1.75% in December, following three consecutive rate cuts.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $26 billion in 52-week bills, $32 billion in seven-year notes and $20 billion in two-year floating-rate notes (FRNs).
— CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed reporting.

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On Monday 27, January 2020

10-year Treasury yield falls to lowest since October as coronavirus fears deepen

Yun Li, Sam Meredith


The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its lowest level in more than three months as investors grew increasingly concerned about the economic impact of the fast-spreading coronavirus.



















Treasurys


TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5480.0170.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.5410.0020.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.441-0.0450.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.433-0.0680.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.601-0.0790.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.051-0.0770.00
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 1.609%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.058%. The 10-year Treasury yield touched a low of 1.603% in the session, its lowest level since Oct. 10.
Chinese officials confirmed Sunday that there had been more than 2,700 confirmed cases of the deadly pneumonia-like virus, including 461 people in a critical condition as the death toll rose to 80.
The virus, which started in the Chinese city of Wuhan, comes from a large family of coronaviruses, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). It has spread beyond Wuhan to other major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Macao and Hong Kong.
The WHO has said that while the virus — which is spreading via human-to-human contact — is “an emergency in China,” it has not yet become a global health emergency.
Data out Monday also didn’t help with the market sentiment. New home sales fell unexpectedly in December, down 0.4% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 units, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $45 billion in 13-week bills, $39 billion in 26-week bills, $40 billion in two-year notes and $41 billion in five-year notes.

New York Fed President John Williams is also expected to comment on the world’s largest economy at an event in San Juan, Puerto Rico on Monday.                                

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On Friday 24, January 2020                                     

10-year Treasury yield falls below 1.7% amid coronavirus fears

Yun Li

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its lowest level since October on Friday amid increasing fears of the deadly coronavirus.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 1.698%, the first time it dipped below 1.7% since October. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 2.161%. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
“It looks like we are testing the bottom of the range,” Jeffery Sherman, Doubleline Capital’s deputy chief investment officer, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Alley.” “We are not going to get higher until we get to 1.95%. That seems to be the double tops that we keep seeing. What you are seeing here is people are saying the Fed is doing nothing and it’s the complacency right now.”
Yields hit their session lows after U.S. health officials said they diagnosed a second patient with the China coronavirus after a Chicago woman returned from Wuhan with the infection, and they are currently monitoring 63 other potential cases here.
The death toll in China rose to 25 and the amount of confirmed cases increased to 830. The virus originated in China, but cases have also been reported in the U.S., Japan and South Korea.
The World Health Organization on Thursday called the outbreak an “emergency in China,” but said it didn’t yet constitute a global public health emergency, helping to slightly ease fears over the epidemic.
Yields extended their losses Friday after a gauge on U.S. manufacturing sector showed weakness. The first reading of PMIs (Purchasing Managers Index) from IHS Markit for January came in at 51.7.  Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a manufacturing reading of 52.2.
A reading above 50 shows an expansion in the industry.

Bond traders will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week starting Tuesday. The central bank has vowed to keep interest rates steady unless it sees a significant and persistent move in inflation. The GDP data release on Thursday will also likely be market-moving.

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On Thursday 23, January 2020

10-year Treasury yields fall below 1.75% amid coronavirus fears

Yun Li, Elliot Smith


Treasury yields continued to slide on Thursday as the death toll resulting from the China coronavirus continues to rise.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, fell three basis points to 1.739%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell to 2.178%.
The death toll from the pneumonia-like illness originating out of Wuhan, China, rose to 17 on Wednesday, with 571 cases now detected throughout Asia and as far away as the U.S.
The World Health Organization will reconvene on Thursday to determine whether to declare a global health emergency and devise a plan to contain the outbreak.
Investors worldwide have sought safety amid concerns about an economic fallout, with Chinese Treasury futures surging overnight.
On the data front, weekly jobless claims rose less than expected to 211,000 from 205,000 the week before. Economists were estimating 215,000 Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, according to Dow Jones. 

Auctions will be held Thursday for $40 billion worth of four-week Treasury bills and $40billionworth of eight-week bills.                          

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On Wednesday 22, January 2020

Treasury yields rebound slightly as investors monitor earnings and virus development

Yun Li, Elliot Smith


Treasury yields fell slightly on Wednesday as investors flocked back into risk assets, after China unveiled measures to rein in the spread of a deadly virus.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 1.7778%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 2.2351%.
The outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus in China’s Wuhan region sent Treasury yields to a two-week low on Tuesday, with experts calling back the economic fallout from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis in 2003. Fears of a global pandemic sent investors running for safety and saw stock markets tumble.
However, China on Wednesday announced sweeping measures to contain the virus, which has killed nine people and infected more than 400. A first U.S. case was confirmed Tuesday in Washington State, but health officials have said the affected individual “poses little risk” to the public.
Investors continued to monitor corporate earnings. IBM forecast full-year profit above market expectations on Tuesday, sending its shares higher, while United Airlines beat Wall Street quarterly profit expectations despite ongoing delays to the Boeing 737 Max aircraft.
Yields gained slightly after data showed U.S. home sales easily beat expectations, jumping to a nearly 2-year high. U.S. home sales increased 3.6% in December to a seasonally adjusted 5.54 million. Economists polled by Reuters expected a gain of 1.3% to 5.43 million units sold.

There were no Treasury auctions scheduled for Wednesday.                                   

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On Tuesday 21, January 2020

10-year Treasury yields fall below 1.8% to a two-week low

Yun Li, Elliot Smith


Treasury yields dropped on Tuesday after an outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus linked to pneumonia in China sent investors fleeing risk assets.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, fell 5 basis points to 1.767%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also down at 2.229%.
The outbreak of a new coronavirus in Wuhan, China has killed four people with confirmed cases exceeding 200 ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, during which hundreds of millions of people are  expected to travel.
Late on Monday, Chinese authorities confirmed that the virus is contagious, and experts have called back the economic fallout from the deadly Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis in 2003.
The Centers for Disease Control told Reuters Tuesday that a traveler from China was diagnosed with the first U.S. case of coronavirus in Seattle.
“The Treasury market benefited overnight from coronavirus concerns as well as Moody’s downgrade of Hong Kong’s long term debt rating,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note on Monday.
Moody’s said Hong Kong’s institutions and governance strength is lower than previously estimated, citing an inability to resolve the issues underlying the recent protests.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday revised down its economic growth projections for 2020 from 3.4% to 3.3%. The U.S. growth outlook was revised down to 2.0% from 2.1% in the IMF’s October forecast.

Auctions will be held Tuesday for $42 billion worth of 13-week Treasury bills and $36 billion in 26-week bills.                                 

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On Monday 13, December 2020

Treasury yields rise slightly to start the week

Yun Li,Sam Meredith


Treasury yields climbed slightly on Monday as investors await the planned signing of a so-called “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China later this week.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to prices, rose two basis points to around 1.84%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.31%.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Sunday that he expects an interim trade deal between Washington and Beijing will add significantly to economic growth in 2020.
The world’s two largest economies plan to sign a phase-one trade deal on Wednesday, which includes China purchasing $200 billion worth of U.S. goods over the next two years and the U.S. reducing tariffs on about $120 billion worth of Chinese products.
The U.S. has decided to remove China from a list of countries considered currency manipulators, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.
Treasury data Monday showed the federal deficit totaled $1.02 trillion over the 12 months that ended in December, the first year the deficit has topped the $1 trillion market. The budget gap grew 17% in 2019, compared to a 28% increase in 2018.

The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $42 billion in 13-week bills and $36 billion in 26-week bills on Monday.                            

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On Friday 10, January 2020

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Treasury yields dip after jobs report misses expectations

Yun Li, Sam Meredith



Treasury yields fell on Friday after the release of a disappointing jobs report.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to the price, fell three basis points to around 1.822%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.28%.
The Labor Department said the U.S. added 145,000 jobs in December, missing an estimate of 160,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.5%, meeting expectations for staying at a 50-year low.
In addition to the slow payroll growth, average hourly earnings rose by just 2.9%, below the 3.1% projection. December marked the first time that wage gains were below 3% on a year-over-year basis since July 2018.
“Treasuries rallied in textbook fashion after the print,” Jon Hill, BMO’s rates strategist said in a note. “This is consistent with an in-range stabilization after the past week’s geopolitical drama, and tees up a focus on next week’s top-tier data releases as well as any sentiment shift post signing of the Phase I trade deal.”
Investors also kept an eye on the geopolitical developments after the U.S. and Iran appeared to edge away from the brink of further conflict in the Middle East.
The House passed a resolution to limit President Donald Trump’s war powers against Tehran on Thursday, with many lawmakers concerned about the prospect of another escalation following the U.S. killing of Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani last week.
On Wednesday, Trump said Iran appeared to be “standing down,” adding that Washington would “immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the state.”
There are no major U.S. Treasury auctions scheduled on Friday.

— CNBC’s Jesse Pound contributed to this report.                               

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On Thursday 9, January 2020

Treasury yields fall as fears of Middle East military escalation abate

Yun Li,Elliot Smith



Treasury yields fell on Thursday as fears of a military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran eased.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, dipped to 1.86%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 2.33%.
Both Washington and Tehran on Wednesday dialed back their combative rhetoric following retaliatory Iranian strikes on U.S. military targets in Iraq, in response to the killing last week of top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani.
Yields’ decline came after data from the Labor Department showed jobless claims fell more than expected last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended Jan. 4, marking the fourth straight weekly decline.

‘Standing down’

Though fears of a military conflict have tentatively abated, which led to a push higher for Treasury yields late Wednesday, some investors are seemingly reluctant to unwind safety positioning just yet.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Iran “appears to be standing down” after firing at least a dozen ballistic missiles at U.S. targets.
However, he announced that Washington will “immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian regime.”

Auctions will be held Thursday for $35 billion worth of four-week bills and $35 billion in eightweek bills.

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On Wednesday 8, January 2020

Treasury prices give up overnight gains as Iran retaliation not as bad as feared

Yun Li,Sam Meredith



Treasury prices erased overnight gains and turned lower on Wednesday even after Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces in Iraq.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, rose 4 basis points to around 1.86%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also climbed to around 2.35%.
Treasuries were bid higher overnight as investors flooded into bonds for safety amid fears of a bigger conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against multiple bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq in the early hours of Wednesday morning, according to Pentagon officials. There were no reports of casualties so far and the attacks did not target oil infrastructure, which is better than feared.
Yields jumped after President Donald Trump said Iran “appears to be standing down” less than a day after the country attacked Iraqi bases housing U.S. forces.
Strong jobs data also helped lift risk sentiment. ADP and Moody’s Analytics said U.S. private payrolls soared by 202,000 last month, compared to an estimate of 150,000.
Still, investors will closely monitor the developments in the Middle East. The strikes came just hours after the funeral of Qasem Soleimani. The slain Iranian military commander was killed by a U.S. drone at Baghdad International Airport late last week, ratcheting up already deteriorating tensions between Iran and the U.S.
Iran has previously said the White House made a “grave mistake” in giving the order to kill Soleimani, with the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei vowing to deliver “severe revenge” to those responsible.
President Donald Trump responded to Wednesday morning’s attacks on Twitter, saying: “All is well!”
“Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.”

The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $24 billion in nine-year and 10-month notes on Wednesday.                                    

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On Tuesday 7, January 2020

Treasury yields turn higher after better-than-expected reading on services economy

Yun Li, Sam Meredith


Treasury yields rose slightly on Tuesday on stronger-than-expected economic data on the services industry.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, climbed to around 1.82%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also rose to around 2.30%.
Yields cut losses and turned higher after data showed services sector expanded more than expected last month. December’s ISM non-manufacturing index came in at 55.0, versus 54.3 expected.
Also, the U.S. trade deficit contracted to $43.1 billion in November, the lowest level of the Trump administration. Much of the gain came from a reduction of the gap with China.
Still, the benchmark 10-year yield has tumbled more than 10 basis points in the new year as investors reassessed the risk of an all-out conflict in the Middle East.
The Pentagon said on Monday that a U.S. general’s letter appearing to inform Iraq’s Defense Ministry that U.S.-led coalition troops were preparing to leave the country “was a mistake.”
Instead, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley told reporters that the letter was an unsigned draft that “should never have been released.”
The confusion came less than 24 hours after Iraq’s parliament passed a nonbinding resolution calling for the removal of American forces and other foreign troops.
U.S.-Iran tensions have ratcheted up in recent days, following a U.S. airstrike at Baghdad’s International Airport that killed Iran’s leading general, Qasem Soleimani.

The U.S. Treasury auctioned $38 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday.                                 

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                                                              On Monday 6, January 2020

Treasury yields turn higher after oil prices give up gains

Yun Li, Sam Meredith



Treasury yields cut losses and turned higher on Monday despite the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was up slightly at around 1.79%. The benchmark yield was lower at 1.77% at one point Monday. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose one basis point to 2.26%.
“Focus will remain firmly on the consequences of mounting tensions between the US and Iran,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note. If there is a more material pick up in aggression, “a larger flight-to-quality bid should be expected to exert sustained downward pressure on yields,” he said.
Crude turned lower on Monday, giving up earlier gains, despite ongoing fears of Iran’s retaliation against U.S. interests. Earlier in the session oil prices had been up more than 2%.
President Donald Trump threatened to impose sanctions against Iraq on Sunday, shortly after Baghdad called for American and foreign troops to leave the country.
Last week, Iran’s General Qasem Soleimani, who led a special forces unit of the Islamic Republic’s elite Revolutionary Guards, was killed by a U.S. airstrike at the Baghdad International Airport.
It has ratcheted up already-high tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with market participants increasingly concerned about the prospect of retaliatory action.
Trump has warned Iran that the U.S. would strike back if Tehran’s military forces attacked any American person or target, saying Washington could do so “perhaps in a disproportionate manner.”

The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $42 billion in 13-week bills and $36 billion in 26-week bills on Monday.                               

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                                                            On Friday 3, January 2020

Treasury yields slide after US strike kills top Iranian military leader in Baghdad

Tom Franck





Treasury yields sank Friday as investors fled for safer assets in the aftermath of a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad that killed Iran’s top military commander and escalated an already-tense power struggle between Washington and Tehran in the Middle East.
Yields on long-term U.S. debt, long considered a safer investment versus equities, fell sharply after the Pentagon confirmed its drone strike killed General Qasem Soleimani, leader of special forces unit of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards and a key figure in Iranian and Middle Eastern politics.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note sank 8 basis points to 1.799% from highs around 1.9% in the previous session, while the rate on the 30-year bond fell 7 basis points to 2.266%. Bond yields fall as prices rise.
“It’s still too soon to offer any meaningful prediction on how this all plays out, but investors are clearly incorporating a degree of concern that further disruptive escalations may be in the offing,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
“The market response has largely been an intuitive flight to quality, but the reaction in breakevens appears undersized,” he added.
The 10-year yield extended its decline on Friday after the Federal Reserve minutes showed officials signaled interest rates would remain on hold through 2020.
The killing of Soleimani, credited for having a hand in designing nearly every significant Iranian military and intelligence operation over the past two decades, represented a shocking blow for Tehran as geopolitical anxieties flare throughout the region.
Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Tehran, Iran on September 18, 2016.
Press Office of Iranian Supreme Leader | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
“At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization,” the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement.
“General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region,” it added. “General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more.”
The U.S. attack also marked the latest in a recent string of U.S.-Iranian hostilities in the Middle East that began with the death of an American contractor in Iraq last month. At the time, the U.S. military blamed the American’s death on an Iran-backed Iraqi militia and conducted airstrikes on Sunday that killed 25 fighters in the region.
That led to the breach of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday by dozens of angry Iraqi militia members, who set fire to a reception area before being controlled using tear gas.
Iran’s Foreign Minister has tweeted that the U.S. bears responsibility for all consequences of its “rogue adventurism,” while Fars News Agency reported a spokesman as saying that Iran’s top security body will meet to discuss Tehran’s response.
“A #SevereRevenge awaits the criminals who have stained their hands with his & the other martyrs’ blood last night,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s most powerful leader, wrote on Twitter Friday morning. “Martyr Soleimani is an Intl figure of Resistance & all such people will seek revenge.”

The U.S. attack in Baghdad early Friday morning sent crude prices soaring as much as 4%, with Brent futures trading around $68.80 a barrel.                                    

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On Thursday 2, January 2020

Treasury yields fall as 2020 kicks off

Yun Li, Sam Meredith


Treasury yields fell on Thursday as trading in the new year kicked off.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, fell about four basis points to around 1.878%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.35%.
Yields traded lower Thursday despite better-than-expected economic data. Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to a four-week low of 222,000 in the week ended Dec. 28, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The number came in lower than estimates of 225,000.
Treasury yields had their biggest drop since 2011 last year, down 76 basis points. Investors fled to safe government bonds in 2019 amid recession fears, and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts also pushed the yields down.
Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments after President Donald Trump said earlier this week that the U.S. and China would soon sign a long-awaited trade pact.
The so-called “phase one” deal is set to be signed at the White House on Jan. 15, though the precise details of the agreement have not yet been shared publicly.
Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $35 billion in four-week bills and $35 billion in eight-week bills on Thursday.

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                                    On Friday 27, December 2019

Treasury yields tick lower in thin holiday trading

Michael Sheetz


U.S. Treasury yields on Friday ticked lower heading into the finish of a week of trading thinned by the mid-week holiday.
At about 2:15 p.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded lower at 1.872%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond traded lower at 2.308%. Bond yields move inversely to the price of the debt.
Additionally, the gap between 2-year notes and 10-year notes, a closely-watched “yield curve,” flattened to about 26 basis points. If inverted, the yield curve is considered a recession indicator. Last week the gap in the 2-year and 10-year yields grew to its widest since Oct. 2018.
There are no auctions scheduled for Friday and no economic data releases expected. Trading volumes have been thin this week, with the markets closed on Dec. 25 and early on Dec. 24.
Treasury note auctions this week broadly saw strong demand, slowing any climb in yields.
Investors continue to run back to traditional assets with equities at record high levels. A climb in yields in December has accompanied this month’s market rally, with both stocks and bond yields benefiting ever since the U.S. and China announced a phase one trade agreement. The two countries are in the process of translating the deal, aiming to sign it in early January.
In a regular press briefing on Thursday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said China is in close touch with the U.S. on signing the initial trade pact. President Donald Trump said Tuesday the deal is “getting done,” adding there will be a signing ceremony with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

– CNBC’s Spriha Srivastava contributed to this report.

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                                 On Thursday 26, December 2019

Treasury yields slide after the last major auction of the year

Michael Sheetz,Yun Li


RT: NYSE traders
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 9, 2019.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters


U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Thursday in holiday-thinned trading, while the last major auction of the year saw solid demand.
At about 1:45 p.m. ET the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at 1.896%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also fell at 2.328%.
The Treasury Department auctioned $32 billion of 7-year notes, both the last major event for U.S. government bonds this week as well as the last auction of 2019. This month’s 7-year note auction saw the strongest demand since September, with an improved bid-to-cover from last month.
Earlier yields pared gains after the Labor Department said U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 to 222,000 in the week ending Dec. 21. The number was slightly higher than the 220,000 expected.
Investors have been taking on more risk, ditching bonds as U.S. stocks rally into the end of the year. The benchmark 10-year yields have bounced back this month, climbing about 25 basis points since the beginning of December.

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                                  On Tuesday 24, December 2019

Treasury yields slide after the last major auction of the year

Michael Sheetz,Yun Li



RT: NYSE traders
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 9, 2019.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Thursday in holiday-thinned trading, while the last major auction of the year saw solid demand.
At about 1:45 p.m. ET the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at 1.896%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also fell at 2.328%.
The Treasury Department auctioned $32 billion of 7-year notes, both the last major event for U.S. government bonds this week as well as the last auction of 2019. This month’s 7-year note auction saw the strongest demand since September, with an improved bid-to-cover from last month.
Earlier yields pared gains after the Labor Department said U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 to 222,000 in the week ending Dec. 21. The number was slightly higher than the 220,000 expected.
Investors have been taking on more risk, ditching bonds as U.S. stocks rally into the end of the year. The benchmark 10-year yields have bounced back this month, climbing about 25 basis points since the beginning of December.

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                                  On Tuesday 24, December 2019

US Treasury yields little changed heading into holiday break

Michael Sheetz, Matt Clinch



U.S. Treasury yields on Tuesday hardly budged, beginning a shortened day of trading due to the holiday season.
At around 1 p.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at 1.910%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also moved down at 2.335%.
Earlier in trading the yield on the 2-year note hit a high of 1.671%, its highest level in two weeks.
U.S. markets will finish trading early on Dec. 24 and will be closed on Dec. 25, Christmas Day.
The slight move lower for yields countered Monday’s small rise. Investors have been adding more risk as 2019 comes to a close, ditching bonds as U.S. stocks rally into the end of the year.
December has seen yields bounce back, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury climbing from a 1.774% yield to begin the month. U.S. government debt prices have fallen as investors have stuck by equities, unwilling to sell in a market where so few stocks have lost value.

The 10-year yield in 2019

On the data front, the Philadelphia Fed’s non-manufacturing index, a key measure of business activity, fell to 13.4 in December from 20.7 the prior month. But the drop was balanced out by an increase in employment, as the Philadelphia Fed’s survey saw its index of full-time non-manufacturing jobs increase to 21.7 in December from 21.1 the month before.
The Richmond Fed’s survey of manufacturing fell to -5, both below last month’s reading of -1 and economists’ expectation of a rise to 1. The Richmond Fed said its index was “weighed down by decreases in the already negative indexes for shipments and new orders,” with only the third component of employment increasing slightly.
The Treasury Department auctioned $41 billion in 5-year notes with solid demand, as the auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49, just under last month’s bid-to-cover of 2.50

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                                     On Monday 23, December 2019

Treasury yields inch higher to kick off a holiday week, continuing their year-end comeback

Michael Sheetz, Elliot Smith


U.S. Treasury yields inched higher on Monday to begin a shortened week of trading due to the holiday season.
At around 4 p.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, rose to 1.931%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was higher, at around 2.354%.
U.S. markets will finish trading early on Dec. 24 and will be closed on Dec. 25, Christmas Day.
Investors are taking more risk and dumping bonds for equities as stocks rally into year end. The 10-year Treasury yield ended November at 1.78% and has jumped 14 basis points in December. Over the summer, the 10-year yield fell below 1.5% at one point.
Solid economic data on Monday did nothing to change investors attitudes about the economy, which have improved dramatically the last six months. Over that time, the bond market has stopped flashing warning signals about a recession and trade tensions have cooled with China, resulting in investors staying away from low-risk assets like bonds.
November new home sales were a seasonally adjusted 719,000, less than expectations but up from a revised 710,00 in October, according to he U.S. Census Bureau on Monday. The median price for a home sold in November rose 7.2% compared to the same period last year.
Durable goods, another key piece of economic data out on Monday, reported an orders increase of 0.1% last month.
The Treasury Department held auctions on Monday for $40 billion worth of 2-year notes, which attracted lower than average demand. The 2-year Treasury auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.30, below last month’s auction bid-to-cover of 2.63.

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                                       On Friday 20, December 2019

Treasury yields rise, capping big jump in rates this week

Yun Li


Treasury yields rose on Friday, on pace for the biggest weekly gains in seven weeks, as investors fled safety assets and moved to riskier securities.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 1.92%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.35%. The 10-year yield has risen about 11 basis points this week, the biggest jump since the week ending Nov. 8.
Strong economic data Friday made investors more confident that the economy will snap out of a slowdown seen earlier this year. Consumer sentiment rose slightly in December as President Donald Trump’s impeachment did not dent economic expectations, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers.
The index of consumer sentiment reached 99.3 for the month. That’s just above a Reuters estimate of 99.2 and surpasses November’s print of 96.8.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department confirmed on Friday. The economy grew at a 2.0% pace in the April-June period.
Investors have been taking on more risk after the U.S. and China announced they reached a phase one trade deal. President Donald Trump said on Friday he had a “very good talk” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the agreement. He said in a tweet that China has started “large scale” purchases of U.S. agricultural products, and a formal deal signing in being arranged.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed Thursday that trade negotiators representing the U.S. and China would sign the deal in early January.
The preliminary agreement between the world’s two largest economies includes some tariff relief, increased agricultural purchases and certain structural changes to intellectual property and technology  issues.
There are no major U.S. Treasury auctions scheduled on Friday.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed reporting.

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                                On Thursday 19, December 2019

Treasury yields cut gains after mixed economic data

Sam Meredit, Yun Li


Treasurys



















































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5720.0130.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.521-0.0050.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.627-0.0060.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.728-0.010.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.915-0.0090.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.349-0.0020.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, fell slightly to 1.906%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.34%.
Weekly jobless claims fell to 234,000 from 252,000 the week before. However, economists polled by Reuters expected claims to fall to 225,000. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business conditions index fell to 0.3 in December from 10.4 in the previous month. Economists expected the index to slip to 8.
On Wednesday, Trump became only the third president to be charged with high crimes and misdemeanors and will now face a trial in the Republican-controlled Senate.
Market reaction has been relatively muted so far, as investors widely expect the Senate to vote against Trump’s removal from office.
On the data front, the latest weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing figures for December and third-quarter current account data will all be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Existing home sales for November and leading index figures for November will both be released slightly later in the session.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $35 billion in four-week bills, $35 billion in eight-week bills and $15 billion in 4-year-and-10-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).

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                                   On Wednesday 18, December 2019

Treasury yields rise as investors look past impeachment vote

Yun Li, Sam Meredith


The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 1.929%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was little changed at around 2.357%.
The House is voting on Wednesday on two articles of impeachment against Trump. The House Judiciary Committee voted along party lines Friday to send two articles of impeachment to the House floor.
The chamber charges the president with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, stemming from efforts to get Ukraine to investigate a top political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his son Hunter. The Democratic-held chamber is expected to impeach Trump — potentially without any Republican support.
Market participants are likely to closely monitor speeches from policymakers at the U.S. central bank, with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Fed Governor Lael Brainard both set to comment on the world's largest economy.
Investors are also seeking more details about a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and China.
Late last week, President Donald Trump and Chinese officials announced that the world's two largest economies had agreed on a so-called "phase one" deal. It is understood that Beijing agreed to billions of dollars in agricultural purchases from the U.S., while Trump said he would not move ahead with a new round of planned tariffs, among other items.
The deal, which is not yet signed, is set to be confirmed in the first week of January, according to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
No major economic data is scheduled on Wednesday.

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                                     On Tuesday 17, December 2019

Treasury yields little changed as investors digest economic data

Yun Li, Sam Meredith


Treasurys

























































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.572-0.010.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.537-0.0020.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.631-0.0140.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.708-0.0120.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.882-0.0070.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.306-0.0020.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 1.8645%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.2813%.
Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, following a preliminary trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies.
Late last week, President Donald Trump and Chinese officials announced that the U.S. and China had agreed to a so-called “phase one” agreement.
It is understood that Beijing agreed to billions of dollars in agricultural purchases from the U.S., while Trump said he would not move ahead with a new round of planned tariffs, among other items.
The deal, which is not yet signed, is set to be confirmed in the first week of January, according to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
On the data front, U.S. housing starts rose more than expected in November as building permits surged to a 12½-year high. U.S. factory production also rebounded by more than expected last month.
There are no major U.S. Treasury auctions scheduled on Tuesday.

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                                  On Monday 16, December 2019

Treasury yields rise as US-China trade deal drives more risk taking

Elliot Smith,Yun Li


U.S. government debt yields rose on Monday as investors reacted to assurances that a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal will be signed in January.

Treasurys



























































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5660.0020.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.5390.0050.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.6370.0330.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.710.0570.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.8780.0570.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.2980.0470.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was up 7 basis points at around 1.8916%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.3122%.
U.S. and Chinese officials announced on Friday that the U.S. and China had finally agreed to the phase one agreement after a contentious 18-month trade war. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday the deal is “totally done,” and it will nearly double U.S. exports to China over the next two years.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said will be inked in January, adding phase two of the deal may come in stages.
In other news, the Treasury is set to auction $42 billion in 13-week Treasury bills and $36 billion in 26-week bills on Monday.


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                                   On Friday 13, December 2019

Treasury yields fall as investors digest US-China partial trade deal

Yun Li,Sam Meredith


U.S. government debt yields fell on Friday as investors weighed the details of a partial trade agreement between the U.S. and China.

Treasurys





























































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.564-0.0080.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.534-0.0390.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.606-0.0640.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.653-0.0830.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.819-0.080.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.248-0.0730.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell about 7 basis points to around 1.824%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.255%.
China and the U.S. have reached an agreement on text of a phase one trade deal and will now move toward signing a deal as quickly as possible, Chinese officials said Friday.
President Donald Trump said Friday that Washington will not charge Beijing with any new tariffs.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative confirmed that the U.S. will be maintaining 25% tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5% tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.
Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.
Market participants are also likely to monitor a speech from New York Fed President John Williams on Friday. The U.S. central bank policymaker is expected to comment on monetary policy, shortly after the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
There are no major U.S. Treasury auctions scheduled on Friday.

— CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed to this report.

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                                     On Thursday 12, December 2019

Treasury yields jump after Trump says trade deal with China 'getting very close'

Sam Meredith , Yun Li


U.S. government debt prices fell on Thursday as President Donald Trump said the U.S. and China are “getting very close” to a “big deal.”

Treasurys































































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.559-0.0130.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.560.0070.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.6560.0410.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.7260.0880.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.8920.1020.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.310.090.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, popped about 12 basis points to 1.9133%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also rose to around 2.3385%.
The U.S. and China have been in talks to finalize a so-called phase one trade deal since early October. The U.S. is scheduled to hike tariffs on approximately $156 billion in Chinese goods this Sunday.
U.S. negotiators had agreed on the terms of a deal ready for Trump to sign off, CNBC reported. The headline came as Trump held talks with top trade advisors at the White House on Thursday.
Data out Thursday from the Labor Department showed U.S. weekly jobless claims climbed to a more than two-year high. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits surged 49,000 to a seasonally adjusted 252,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, the highest reading since September 2017.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a target range of 1.5%-1.75% on Wednesday, as many had expected, and indicated it would likely not make any policy changes through at least 2020.
The U.S. central bank’s decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged was unanimous, following several dissents in recent meetings.

The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $40 billion in four-week bills, $35 billion in eight-week bills and $16 billion in 29-year and 11-month bonds on Thursday.

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                                    On Wednesday 11, December2019

10-year Treasury yield slips under 1.8% after Fed signals no hikes in 2020

Thomas Franck



U.S. government debt yields slipped Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled that it’s unlikely to raise interest rates in 2020 as previously forecast.
Yields slipped further after Fed Chair  said on Wednesday that he’d prefer to let inflation rise and hold above the central bank’s target before considering future interest rate hikes.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell below 1.8% after the Fed’s announcement, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also ticked lower to 2.224%. Yields fall as prices rise.
The Fed left interest rates unchanged in December as widely expected to cap one of the central bank’s busiest years in recent memory. Better-than-expected jobs numbers — including a healthy November payrolls add of 266,000 — and an apparent bottom in the summer’s soft manufacturing data helped justify the Fed’s quiet end to the year.
“The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective,” the statement said.
Fed members, however, did indicate reduced odds for a rate hike in 2020 as previously indicated through the “dot plot” of individuals’ future projections.
“In order to move rates up, I would want to see inflation that’s persistent and that’s significant,” Powell said from a press conference in Washington. “A significant move up in inflation that’s also persistent before raising rates to address inflation concerns: That’s my view.”
As recently as September, Fed officials weren’t sure as to the best course of monetary policy next year. At the time, eight members saw no changes necessary in 2020 and nine suggested one or more increases could be warranted. The Fed added that for 2020 it sees 2% GDP growth, 1.9% core PCE rate and the unemployment rate at 3.5%.
“The Fed succeeded in making today’s FOMC statement as uneventful as possible,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.
“Take all with a grain of salt and the same can be said for any 2020 forecast but particularly the Fed’s,” Boockvar added. “Also, because of these forecasts being about on trend, their fed funds rate median projection is for no change in policy.”
The spring and summer months proved trickier for Powell and his colleagues to navigate as earlier expectations for an economic slump and concerns over the U.S.-China trade war forced the Fed to pivot from 2018′s four rate hikes to a brief “mid-cycle adjustment” easing.
The central bank voted to cut the overnight lending rate three times between July and October in a stated effort to safeguard against “downside risks,” support to economy and further goad inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a news conference following the Federal Reserve’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting in Washington, July 31, 2019.
Sarah Silbiger | Reuters
A September cash crunch in the repo, or repurchase, market forced the Fed launch operations to ensure banks had the overnight funding they need at rates within the central bank’s intended parameters.
The Fed’s balance sheet, or the sum total of the obligations the central bank is carrying on its books, has grown by $306 billion since it began repo operations in September, he added.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in November as fuel and housing costs pushed up how much everyday Americans spend. The government’s headline consumer price index rose 0.3% in November from the prior month, just above what economists polled by Dow Jones had expected.
Core CPI rose 0.2% as expected and has risen 2.3% from a year earlier for two consecutive months.
Market focus also remains on global trade developments amid conflicting signals about whether the U.S. will impose even more tariffs on Chinese goods on Sunday.
Speaking at a Wall Street Journal conference on Tuesday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said tariffs on another $156 billion in Chinese goods were “still on the table.” His comments came after multiple media reports suggested the White House was considering holding off on extra levies this weekend.
The world’s two largest economies have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.

Treasurys

































































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5720.0050.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.558-0.0020.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.619-0.0330.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.641-0.0380.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.798-0.0330.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.23-0.0220.00

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                                      On Tuesday 10, December 2019

Treasury yields little changed as investors turn cautious ahead of China tariff deadline

Yun Li, Silvia Amaro


Treasurys



































































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5690.0130.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.560.0020.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.6520.0250.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.6880.020.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.8430.0120.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.270.0050.00
The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. and China are laying the groundwork for a delay of a fresh round of tariffs set to kick in on Sunday, which cited officials on both sides. The two countries have been in talks to finalize a phase one trade deal since early October.
However, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the Dec. 15 tariffs are still “on the table.”
A separate report from the South China Morning Post earlier Tuesday said China and the U.S. are unlikely to reach a trade deal this week. The report said chances of a deal are falling as the U.S. focuses on finalizing a trade deal with Mexico and Canada.
Sources told CNBC on Monday that House Democrats and the Trump administration are close to a tentative deal that would replace North American Free Trade Agreement.
The Fed is starting a two-day meeting Tuesday with the central bank expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $24 billion in 10-year notes.

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                                  On Monday 9, December 2019

Treasury yields fall slightly as investors look ahead to Fed meeting

Yun Li,Silvia Amaro


U.S. government debt prices were higher and yields lower on Monday as investors monitor the latest development on U.S.-China trade and look ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting later this week.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 1.8346%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at around 2.2695%.

Treasurys





































































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.5460.0230.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.558-0.0050.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.6210.000.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.663-0.0060.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.828-0.0150.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.266-0.0180.00
Bond prices dropped Friday after a U.S. jobs report topped expectations. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 266,000 in November and the unemployment rate stood at 3.5%.
This week traders are waiting for a new Fed meeting, starting Tuesday. Market players are also closely following trade talks between the U.S. and China, looking for clarity as to whether both countries will be signing a trade deal soon. The U.S. is due to impose new tariffs on China by December 15.
China Assistant Commerce Minister Ren Hongbin said Monday the country hopes to make a deal with the U.S. “as soon as possible.” Ren’s comment came after data showed Chinese exports fell for a fourth straight month in November, potentially increasing pressure on China to make a deal.
Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told CNBC on Friday that both sides were “close” to a deal, but suggested Trump was prepared to “walk away” if certain conditions were not met. Kudlow also confirmed that a Dec. 15 deadline remained in place to impose tariffs on another $156 billion on Chinese goods.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $84 billion in 13 and 26-week bills; and $38 billion in three-year notes.


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                                 On Friday 6, December 2019

Treasury yields climb after blowout jobs report

Yun Li


Treasurys







































































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.523-0.0230.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.5610.0030.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.6170.0350.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.6660.0460.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.8420.0470.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.2830.0380.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, rose about 4 basis points to 1.8363% following the jobs report. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.2813%.
The jobs market turned in a stellar performance in November, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 266,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 3.5%, according to Labor Department numbers released Friday.
Those totals easily beat the Wall Street consensus. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for solid job growth of 187,000 and saw the unemployment rate holding steady from October’s 3.6%.
“Treasuries discretely sold off in response,” Jon Hill, BMO’s rates strategist said in a note on Friday. “We’d argue that the market reaction is somewhat muted, likely due to the myriad of major risk events in the next 10 days (FOMC, ECB, UK election, tariff deadline... etc)”
Investors also continue to monitor developments on U.S.-China trade.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump said the world’s two largest economies were inching closer to a trade deal. His comments come as investors continue to closely monitor the prospect of a so-called “phase one” trade agreement, with less than 10 days to go before Washington is poised to impose even more tariffs on Chinese goods.
Dec. 15 is the date when tariffs on another $156 billion in Chinese goods will go into effect.
There are no U.S. Treasury auctions scheduled on Friday.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report.


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                                         On Thursday 5, December 2019

Treasury yields rise slightly as investors monitor US-China trade

Yun Li, Sam Meredith


U.S. government debt prices were slightly lower and yields higher on Thursday as investors monitored U.S.-China trade talks.

Treasurys











































































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.546-0.0130.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.561-0.0020.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.5920.0080.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.6310.0250.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.8090.0280.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.2560.0270.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, rose to around 1.7973%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.2444%.
Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, following a media report suggesting the world’s two largest economies were on the cusp of signing a so-called “phase one” trade deal.
Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said Thursday the two sides remain in close communications regarding trade. Gao did not, however, give any details on how the negotiations were proceeding. He added that China “believes if both sides reach a phase-one agreement, relevant tariffs must be lowered.”
Bloomberg report, which cited people familiar with U.S.-China trade talks, said both countries were inching closer to securing an agreement on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a limited trade deal. President Donald Trump also said Wednesday that he believed trade talks with Beijing were going “very well.”
Market participants are closely monitoring the prospect of a limited trade agreement with 10 days to go before Washington is poised to impose even more tariffs on Chinese goods. Dec. 15 is the date when tariffs on another $156 billion in Chinese goods would go into effect.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $40 billion in four-week bills and $35 billion in eight-week bills on Thursday.

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                                    On Wednesday 4,  December 2019

Treasury yields rise on renewed optimism on a US-China trade deal

Yun Li, Silvia Amaro

U.S. government debt prices were lower on Wednesday after a news report from Bloomberg said the U.S. and China are moving closer to a trade agreement.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, rose more than 6 basis points to around 1.774%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at 2.222%
The Bloomberg report, which cited people familiar with the talks, said the two countries were edging closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a so-called phase-one trade deal.
The news came after Trump told reporters in London on Tuesday that it might be better to wait until after the 2020 presidential election to conclude a trade deal with China.
Private payrolls increased by just 67,000 last month, according to an estimate Wednesday from ADP and Moody’s Analytics. The count was well below the 150,000 consensus from economists surveyed by Dow Jones and the lowest month since May.

Treasurys















































































































TICKER COMPANY YIELD CHANGE %CHANGE
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.559-0.020.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.5630.000.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.5780.0460.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.6010.0670.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.7740.0650.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.2240.0640.00
Meanwhile, the U.S. Trade Representative announced Monday a list of French goods that could see tariffs of up to 100%. The decision came after France introduced a digital services tax, which the U.S. argues treats U.S. tech companies unfairly. France and the wider European Union have promised to retaliate against potential U.S. tariffs on French goods.
At the same time, the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the Trump administration has not ruled out imposing tariffs on imported European autos, despite not announcing a decision in November on whether to put additional levies on cars in the region.

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                                    On Tuesday 3, December 2019

10-year Treasury yield drops the most in 4 months as Trump's cautious trade talk boosts safety trade

Yun Li


The yield on benchmark Treasury note dropped the most since August on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said he might wait till next year to complete a trade deal with China.

Treasurys

















































































































TICKERCOMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.579-0.0130.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.559-0.0390.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.536-0.0780.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.538-0.1210.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.712-0.1240.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.161-0.1240.00
The rate on the 10-year Treasury bond, which moves inversely to price, dropped 14 basis points to around 1.70%, its biggest decline in four months. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell about 12 basis points to around 2.16%.
Trump on Tuesday indicated he might delay a trade agreement between the world’s biggest economies until after the 2020 elections.
“In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal, but they want to make a deal now and we will see whether or not the deal is going to be right,” Trump told reporters earlier on Tuesday. When asked if he had a deal deadline, he added: “I have no deadline, no ... In some ways, I think it is better to wait until after the election if you want to know the truth.”
The U.S. and China agreed to work up a so-called phase one trade deal in early October after both sides slapped tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods. Market participants had hoped they would reach a limited agreement before the new tariffs on Chinese goods kick in on Dec. 15.
“The market implications of ‘no deal’ are ostensibly straightforward,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates said in a note on Tuesday. “Trade war inspired global uncertainties will limit the upside for risk assets and put a ceiling on how far Treasury yields can increase in any bearish episode.”
The president also threatened to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on imports from Brazil and Argentina, saying it was necessary because the two countries had been “presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies.”
However, in recent months, both countries have been seeking to strengthen their respective currencies against the dollar.
The South American trade tariffs have rekindled broader concerns about a protracted dispute between the U.S. and China, with investors monitoring the prospect of a limited agreement.
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $26 billion in 52-week bills on Tuesday.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report.

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                                  On Moday 2, December 2019

Treasury yields rise despite weak manufacturing data

Yun Li, Silvia Amaro


Treasurys


TICKER COMPANY YIELD CHANGE %CHANGE
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.574-0.0130.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.593-0.0060.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.6040.0020.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.6460.0280.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.8220.0460.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.270.070.00
Manufacturing activity continued to lag in November amid a lag in inventories and new orders, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing reading released Monday.
The reading came in at 48.1 vs. an expectation of 49.4 and the previous month’s reading of 48.3.
Market players are closely monitoring U.S. and China relations. Chinese state media reported Sunday that Beijing wants a cancellation of tariffs for a phase one trade deal.
There is no clear indication of when both countries will be able to sign an agreement and last week saw fresh tension between Washington and Beijing after President Donald Trump signed legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong.
Trump also said Monday he will restore tariffs on metal imports from Brazil and Argentina.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is set to auction $84 billion in 13 and 26-week bills.

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