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Bonds | Today's Treasury Yields Report on Tuesday 4, August 2020.

Treasury yields fall as lawmakers remain divided over new virus relief deal

Yun Li


Treasury yield fell on Tuesday as investors awaited for details over the next stimulus deal with top lawmakers remaining divided.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dipped 2 basis points to 0.539% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also fell to 1.211%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys



TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.099-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1220.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.113-0.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.195-0.030.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.515-0.0480.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.192-0.0520.00
U.S. lawmakers have been discussing a new round of fiscal stimulus as the coronavirus pandemic continues to take a toll on the economy. Policymakers in the U.S. Congress seemed to agree that a second round of stimulus checks is needed, but have not yet reached a deal over the details, including on how much dependents should get.
The Senate is set to leave on a break Friday, when the key July jobs report is released.
About 1.264 million new jobs are expected, well below the 4.8 million added in June, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.6% from 11.1%, according to Dow Jones estimates.
“The most relevant question has quickly become whether the resurgence of Covid-19 has materially slowed jobs growth and if so, the extent to which the shift is permanent or simply a delay,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note Tuesday.
The U.S. Treasury is due to auction $30 billion in 42-day Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) and another $30 billion in 119-day CMBS on Tuesday.

— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed reporting.

______________________________________________________

On Monday 3, August 2020

Treasury yields bounce slightly from last week's record-setting drop

Yun Li,Sam Meredith


Treasury yields edged higher on Monday following last week’s decline that pushed some of the frond-end rates to record lows.

Treasurys





TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.089-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1190.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1130.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.2250.0110.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.5610.0250.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.2460.0490.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher by 2 basis points at 0.562%, recovering slightly after falling to its lowest level since March 9 on Friday. Meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 5 basis points at 1.251%. The 30-year rate slipped to its lowest level since April 29 in the previous session. Yields move inversely to prices.
Yields on the 2-year, 3-year and 5-year notes also climbed higher on Monday after each hitting record low last week.
On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing PMI came in at 54.2 for July, up from 52.6 in June and the reading signaled a faster-than-expected expansion for the sector. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a print of 53.8 for last month.
The number of coronavirus cases continues to rise worldwide, with the World Health Organization reporting that the 24 hours through to Friday marked the largest ever single-day increase of new Covid-19 infections.
Almost 300,000 new cases of the virus were reported on Thursday, with more than half stemming from the Americas. To date, more than 18 million people have contracted the coronavirus worldwide, with 689,347 related deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $54 billion of 13-week bills and $51 billion of 26-week bills on Monday.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 31, July 2020

Treasury yields fall, with 3-year, 5-year rates hitting all-time lows, amid economic concerns

Yun Li


Treasury yields continued to move lower on Friday with short-maturity rates reaching record lows as investors remained worried about the pace of economic recovery. 

Treasurys







TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.094-0.0020.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1170.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.111-0.010.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.217-0.0130.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.54-0.0010.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.2010.0040.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, hit a low of 0.520% its lowest level since March 9. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell slightly to 1.176%, its lowest level since April 29.
The rate on the 3- year note hit a new intraday record low of 0.122%. The 5-year yield also reached a new all-time low of 0.214%.
The decline in Treasury yields came as Congress failed to agree on the next coronavirus stimulus deal. The current $600 weekly federal unemployment benefit is expiring Friday.
Meanwhile, U.S. gross domestic product plunged by a record 32.9% in the second quarter, data showed Thursday. The number was not as bad as feared, however, as economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 34.7% decline.
The euro zone economy contracted by 12.1% in the second quarter, the worst reading since the region began tracking the data in 1995. Its largest economies, including Germany, Italy, France and Spain, contracted by double digits during the period due to strict lockdown measures.
“As the toll of the pandemic continues to mount, it’s challenging to envision a turn of events that could stoke optimism for the months or even quarters ahead,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note Friday.
Overnight, some of the biggest tech stocks — Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet and Apple — reported quarterly results that beat high expectations, likely fueling a small gain in stock markets for Friday.
— CNBC’s Matt Clinch contributed reporting.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 30, July 2020

10-year Treasury yield dips below 0.55% for first time in over 3 months after record GDP contraction (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Sam Meredith


Treasury yields moved lower on Thursday as data showed U.S. economy shrank at a record pace in the second quarter.

Treasurys











TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.096-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.117-0.0120.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.123-0.0060.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.233-0.020.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.545-0.0360.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.198-0.0460.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 3 basis points to around 0.54%, marking the first time the benchmark rate has traded below the 0.55% threshold in more than three months. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also down 5 basis points at 1.19%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Data on Thursday showed gross domestic product plunged by a record 32.9% in the second quarter. The number was not as bad as feared, however, as economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 34.7% decline.
Meanwhile, U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 1.434 million, roughly in line with estimates. However, continuing claims, or those who have been collecting for at least two weeks, totaled 17.018 million, up from about 16 million last week.
“It’s been long known that Q2 growth was abysmal, a fact confirmed this morning without spurring equally compelling price action,” Jon Hill, BMO’s U.S. rates strategist, said in a note. “The resulting net price action was an intuitive bull-flattening of the Treasury yield curve.”
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve voted to keep its benchmark overnight lending rate anchored near zero, where it has been since March 15.
The Federal Opening Market Committee also underlined its commitment to maintaining its bond purchases and the array of lending and liquidity programs associated with the response to the coronavirus outbreak.
“The message from the Fed will be strong -- that they are all in -- with it clear that they are getting more concerned about Covid’s effects and economic growth in the second half,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. “Long-end Treasury rates are hugging the bottom of their range and seem to want to go lower. That reflects also that there’s a ton of about the virus and geopolitics.”

The U.S. Treasury will auction $35 billion in eight-week bills and $30 billion in four-week bills on Thursday.

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 29, July 2020

Treasury yields flat as Fed keeps interest rates unchanged (Afternoon Update).

Yun Li,Sam Meredith


Treasury yields remained flat on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady.

Treasurys













TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.101-0.0080.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.129-0.0080.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.129-0.0140.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.25-0.0160.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.579-0.0020.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.2480.0250.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 0.582%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 2 basis points to 1.244%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The 5-year Treasury yield fell one basis point to hit a record low of 0.2516%.
The central bank kept its benchmark overnight lending rate anchored near zero, while reiterating its commitment to maintain its bond purchases and a host of lending and liquidity programs in its response to the coronavirus pandemic.
“Following sharp declines, economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year,” the post-meeting statement said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference shortly after the announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET.
“The FOMC telegraphed little incremental change to the Fed’s approach today, but the committee has been heard loud and clear that it is staying the course with its unprecedented monetary support for the U.S. economy,” Jason Pride, CIO of private wealth at Glenmede, said in a note.
To date, more than 16.7 million people have contracted the Covid-19 infection worldwide, with 660,428 related deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $25 billion in 105-day bills and $30 billion in 154-day bills on Wednesday.

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields dip with 5-year rate hitting a record low ahead of Fed decision (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Sam Meredith


Treasury yields fell slightly on Wednesday with the Federal Reserve poised to announce its latest interest rate decision later in the session.

Treasurys

















TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1090.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.134-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.135-0.0080.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.258-0.0080.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.5810.000.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.2320.0090.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell slightly to 0.5741%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also little changed at 1.2240%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The 5-year Treasury yield fell one basis point to hit a record low of 0.2516%.
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to reinforce loose monetary policy and keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference shortly after the announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET.
“An acknowledgement of the recent increase in Covid-19 cases and its contribution to the ongoing uncertainties promises to be the official theme of the statement and press conference,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note.
“With progress toward a framework change and forward guidance containing hard targets issues for September of later, we’re reluctant to call of a breach of the prevailing range for US rates,” Lyngen added.
The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates at near zero at its last meeting in June as the central bank continued to deal with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
To date, more than 16.7 million people have contracted the Covid-19 infection worldwide, with 660,428 related deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $25 billion in 105-day bills and $30 billion in 154-day bills on Wednesday.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 28, July 2020

Treasury yields fall slightly as Fed begins 2-day meeting (Morning Update).

Yun Li


Treasury yields dipped on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell one basis point to 0.59% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond traded 2 basis points lower at 1.22%. Yields have an inverse relationship to prices.

Treasurys



















TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1120.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.14-0.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.143-0.0130.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.275-0.0150.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.595-0.0140.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.237-0.0150.00
The Fed is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. The FOMC kept its key interest rate unchanged at near zero at its last meeting in June as it continued to deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. economy.
“Fed officials have indicated that rates will be held low for a long period of time. Forward guidance is its game plan for conducting policy amid low rates,” Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale chief U.S. economist, said in a note. “We expect more communication, but strong commitments may need to wait.”
The central bank said Tuesday it is extending its lending programs to businesses, governments and individuals to the end of 2020. It was previously set to expire Sept. 30.
On the data front, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 92.6 in July, down from a revised 98.3 in June, according to the Conference Board. The decline came as cases of Covid-19 continued to climb across the country.
Meanwhile, the Treasury will auction $24 billion in two-year floating rate notes and $44 billion in seven-year notes.

— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed reporting.

_____________________________________________________

On Monday 27, July 2020

Treasury yields dip slightly amid concerns about economic recovery (Morning Update).

Silvia Amaro


Treasury yields fell slightly on Monday as investors searched for so-called safe havens amid concerns over the global economy, the spread of Covid-19 and geopolitical tensions.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell marginally to 0.5815% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dipped one basis point to 1.2215%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The move in yields came as gold prices soared to a new record high.
Recent growing Covid-19 infections in certain parts of the world have raised concerns over the prospects for the global economy. India, Hong Kong, as well as certain regions of Europe, have seen spikes in recent days. 

Treasurys























TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.106-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1420.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.147-0.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.271-0.0030.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.584-0.0050.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.226-0.0130.00
 “The only meaningful challenge to the low-rate thesis most likely won’t materialize until after Labor Day as vaccine results help recast expectations for the duration of the pandemic,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note on Monday.
Data on Monday showed orders for long-lasting factory goods rose 7.3% in June for the second consecutive monthly gain. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a 5.4% increase. However, core durable goods orders, which exclude the often volatile transportation category, were up 3.3% in June, versus expectations of 3.6% per Dow Jones.
The U.S. Treasury is due to auction $105 billion in 13-week and 26-week bills; $48 billion in two-year notes; and $49 billion in five-year notes. 

______________________________________________________

On Friday 24, July 2020

Treasury yields move lower ahead of business activity data

Silvia Amaro


U.S. government debt prices were higher Friday morning as traders monitored coronavirus' cases and new data.

At around 2:47 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 0.5692% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also fell to 1.2193%. Yields move inversely to prices.
On Thursday, bond yields also dipped on the back of worse-than-expected employment numbers. U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 1.416 million for last week. Economists had forecast that 1.3 million workers had filed for unemployment benefits.
On the data front, there will be manufacturing and services PMIs (purchasing managers' index) at 9:45 a.m. ET and new home sales will be released at 10 a.m. ET.
There are no Treasury auctions scheduled Friday. 

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 23, July 2020

Treasury yields fall slightly after jobless claims come in worse than expected (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Elliot Smith


Treasury yields dipped on Thursday after data showed U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected last week.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell one basis point to 0.584% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond were also lower at 1.274%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys



























TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.117-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1420.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1510.0040.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.2690.000.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.581-0.0140.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.254-0.0360.00
U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 1.416 million for last week, marking the 18th straight week in which initial claims rose by more than 1 million. Economists expect another 1.3 million workers to have filed initial claims for state unemployment benefits.
Investors also weighed the optimism over a fresh government coronavirus response bill against concerns over rising tensions between the U.S. and China.
Senate Republicans late on Wednesday said they had reached accords in principle over portions of a potential aid package, which may be presented to Democratic counterparts this week as lawmakers look to rush legislation through before the end of the month.
CNBC reported Wednesday, citing sources, that Republicans are considering an extension of unemployment insurance benefits through to year-end, at a dramatically reduced level of $400 per month.
The positive sounds around the bill helped pull yields away from Wednesday’s lows, which came after a further souring of diplomatic ties between the world’s two largest economies. The U.S. has given China 72 hours to close its consulate in Houston amid allegations that it was a hotbed for spying.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin condemned the action and warned of unspecified retaliation if Washington does not reverse the decision.
The coronavirus pandemic remains on the agenda as Texas on Wednesday reported record daily increases in deaths and hospitalizations, while the head of the World Health Organization’s emergency program said the first use of vaccines currently advancing through testing cannot be expected until early 2021.
Pfizer and German biotech BioNTech said on Wednesday that the U.S. has agreed to pay $1.95 billion for its experimental Covid-19 vaccination in the hope of inoculating around 50 million people, should it prove to be safe and effective.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $30 billion of 4-week Treasury bills, $35 billion of 8-week bills and $14 billion of 10-year TIPS.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 22, July 2020

Treasury yields edge lower as pandemic and stimulus concerns guide sentiment (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith


U.S. government debt prices edged higher Wednesday morning after President Donald Trump conceded that the coronavirus pandemic will probably “get worse before it gets better.”
At around 2 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at 0.6036% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down slightly at 1.3090%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.122-0.0020.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.142-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1430.000.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.26-0.0110.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.584-0.0230.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.282-0.0310.00
In a White House briefing Tuesday, Trump adopted a more somber tone regarding the outlook for the pandemic in the U.S. than in recent weeks, having long downplayed the threat of the virus.
Trump also signaled a willingness to work with China and other countries to deliver a successful coronavirus vaccine, despite a recent escalation of tensions with Beijing.
Texas and Florida both reported record daily average deaths from Covid-19 on Monday based on a seven-day moving average, as hospitalizations continue to rise in 34 states. Confirmed cases nationwide are now nearing 3.9 million with 141,995 deaths as of Wednesday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
Republicans and Democrats remain at odds over the extent of the next round of coronavirus aid, with Congressional Democrats demanding more money and more details on a potential $1 trillion relief package after a meeting with White House advisers Tuesday.
Existing home sales for June will be released at 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting a rebound to 4.73 million sales.
Auctions will be held Wednesday for $25 billion of 105-day Treasury bills, $30 billion of 154-day bills and $17 billion of 20-year bonds.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 21, July 2020

Treasury yields are flat as investors monitor stimulus, coronavirus and vaccines (Morning Update)

Elliot Smith


Treasury yields held steady on Tuesday despite the unveiling of new stimulus measures in Europe and a spree of promising coronavirus vaccine and treatment trials, as fears over the coronavirus surge in the U.S. lingered.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was flat at 0.611% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond edged down slightly to 1.310%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys

































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1270.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.145-0.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.147-0.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.277-0.0080.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.607-0.0130.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.308-0.010.00
Earlier on Tuesday, the European Commission agreed to a 750 billion euro stimulus package. The stimulus is designed to help countries and sectors in the region most affected by the coronavirus pandemic. In the U.S., investors are monitoring the talks in Washington on the next coronavirus relief bill.
Risk sentiment was buoyed on Monday after an experimental vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University produced an immune response in an early-stage clinical trial. A vaccine from U.S. drugmaker Pfizer and German biotech BioNTech also showed promise in a second early trial, the companies said Monday.
Meanwhile, British pharmaceutical firm Synairgen said its inhaled treatment reduced the risk of hospitalized patients deteriorating to the point of requiring a ventilator.
Despite all this, the bond market is “is just not confident in a robust economic recovery,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. Boockvar pointed to this reason when explaining why he thinks Treasury yields haven’t moved higher Tuesday.
New coronavirus cases in Florida continued to soar on Monday with more than 10,000 infections recorded for the sixth consecutive day. However, California saw hospitalizations and new infections begin to stabilize following its recent surge.

______________________________________________________

On Monday 20, July 2020

Treasury yields fall slightly as investors monitor coronavirus cases, stimulus talks (Morning Update)

Elliot Smith


Treasury yields dipped on Monday as cases of the coronavirus in the U.S. continued to surge, while leaders on both sides of the Atlantic looked for agreements on new fiscal stimulus to shore up their economies.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell less than 2 basis points to 0.606% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond edged down to 1.302%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys



































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.114-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1450.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1490.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.2830.0010.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.617-0.0110.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.313-0.0160.00
Florida reported more than 10,000 new Covid-19 cases for the fifth consecutive day on Sunday, with cases nationwide now exceeding 3.7 million and rising by around 70,000 per day, according to Johns Hopkins University, even as President Donald Trump vowed that “it’s going to be under control.”
Congress is set to begin debating a fresh coronavirus aid package this week, aiming to finalize legislation on help for households and business protections in the coming weeks.

The Washington Post reported Sunday that the Trump administration is seeking to block billions of dollars for state-run testing and tracing efforts, driving divisions within the Republican Party. The administration could also reportedly hamper funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Pentagon and the State Department to tackle the pandemic.

In Europe, leaders are also embroiled in tough negotiations over a new 750 billion euro ($858.6 billion) coronavirus recovery fund, with the 27 EU countries seemingly at an impasse after three days of talks.

There are no major economic data releases scheduled for Monday.
Auctions will be held Monday for $54 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $51 billion of 26-week bills.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 17, July 2020

10-year Treasury yield falls below 0.6% as U.S. coronavirus cases continue to rise (Morning Update)

Yun Li,Katrina Bishop


Treasury yields dipped on Friday as investors digested a continuous rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower around 0.599% in early trading, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped to around 1.2975%. Bond yields fall as their prices rise.
Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment dipped in the early part of July amid a continuing rise in new coronavirus cases. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 73.2 for July, a decline from 78.1 in June. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a small rise to 79
The U.S. reported over 77,000 new cases of Covid-19 on Thursday, a new record high, and close to 1,000 additional deaths, according to calculations by Reuters. The country has reported the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world — over 3.5 million to date — and more than 590,000 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The news appeared to weigh on risk sentiment, as more businesses look likely to shut up shop — at least temporarily — as the virus’ spread looks set to continue.

Treasurys







































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1140.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.145-0.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1470.000.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.280.0050.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.620.0080.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.3150.0140.00
On Thursday, data showed retail sales beat forecasts rising by 7.5% last month, however initial weekly jobless claims rose by 1.3 million in the week ending July 11, above expectations.
There are no major economic releases or Treasury auctions scheduled today.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 16, July 2020

Treasury yields fall slightly after jobless claims number disappoints (Morning Update)

Yun Li, Elliot Smith


Treasury yields dipped on Thursday as the latest jobs data came in weaker than expected.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at 0.6250% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond edged down to 1.3212%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys









































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.127-0.010.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.15-0.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.147-0.0080.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.272-0.0130.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.607-0.0230.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.299-0.0320.00
The Labor Department said Thursday that a total of 1.30 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, compared to Dow Jones estimates of 1.25 million first-time filers. It was also the 16th straight week in which initial claims totaled at least 1 million.
Meanwhile, retail sales number came in better than expected. June’s retail sales jumped 7.5%, exceeding expectations of a 5.2% increase per Dow Jones. This reading came after May’s 17.7% surge, which blew past estimates and was the largest reading on record.
Yields had received a boost Wednesday after biotech firm Moderna said its potential Covid-19 vaccine had produced a strong immune response in early-stage human trials.
However, cases of the coronavirus continue to surge in the U.S., with Texas reporting a record daily rise in new cases on Wednesday as nationwide infections reach 3.5 million.
Meanwhile, relations between Washington and Beijing continue to sour, as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday saying that the U.S. will impose visa restrictions on Chinese companies such as tech giant Huawei, which he accused of facilitating human rights violations.
The White House also said that President Donald Trump has not ruled out imposing sanctions on Chinese officials as part of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, the punitive measures signed Tuesday against China for its handling of Hong Kong.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $35 billion each of 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 15, July 2020

Treasury yields jump after positive vaccine news boosts risk sentiment

Yun Li


Treasury yields climbed higher on Wednesday as investors fled safe bonds into risk assets on increased hopes for a coronavirus vaccine.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 4 basis points to 0.648% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also moved higher to 1.343%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys











































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.142-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.152-0.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1550.000.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.2880.0060.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6330.0190.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.3370.0360.00
Rates turned higher after Moderna, a biotech firm, said that its potential vaccine to prevent Covid-19 delivered a solid immune response in an early-stage human trial among all 45 patients.
The news came as the country deals with a resurgence in new coronavirus cases in some states. California, Texas Florida and others have had to roll back reopening measures as cases continue to climb.
Confirmed cases in the U.S. total more than 3.4 million and deaths have surpassed 136,000, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
The stock market rallied on Wednesday following the positive vaccine news with the S&P 500 rising more than 1%.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on Wednesday showed business activity picked up through the beginning of July as the economy began to reopen, but activity still remains below pre-pandemic levels.

— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed reporting.

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields jump after positive vaccine news boosts risk sentiment (Morning Update).

Yun Li


Treasury yields climbed higher on Wednesday as investors fled safe bonds into risk assets on increased hopes for a coronavirus vaccine.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 4 basis points to 0.648% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also moved higher to 1.343%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys













































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.137-0.0080.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.152-0.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1550.000.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.2870.0050.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6320.0180.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.3370.0360.00
Rates turned higher after Moderna, a biotech firm, said that its potential vaccine to prevent Covid-19 delivered a solid immune response in an early-stage human trial among all 45 patients.
The news came as the country deals with a resurgence in new coronavirus cases in some states. California, Texas Florida and others have had to roll back reopening measures as cases continue to climb.

Confirmed cases in the U.S. total more than 3.4 million and deaths have surpassed 136,000, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
The stock market rallied on Wednesday following the positive vaccine news with the S&P 500 rising more than 1%.

On the data front, investors will monitor the Fed’s Beige Book report which comes out at 2 p.m. ET. There are no Treasury auctions scheduled.

— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed reporting.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 14, July 2020

Treasury yields decline for a second day on rising concerns about the economy (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Elliot Smith


Treasury yields retreated for a second day on Tuesday as a continued surge of coronavirus cases stateside tempered hopes of a smooth economic recovery.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to 0.611% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also dropped 4 basis points to 1.292%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys















































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1450.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1570.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.151-0.0080.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.275-0.0230.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.607-0.0330.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.29-0.0470.00
Yields didn’t rise even after data showed inflation was slightly higher than expected. The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.6% in June, compared to the expectations of an increase of 0.5%, according to Dow Jones. The Labor Department said rising gas prices accounted for more than half of last month’s increase.
“Our advice is don’t be fooled by today’s jump in CPI prices as the longer downturn in the economy from the coronavirus second wave all but guarantees that inflation isn’t going anywhere,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, said in a note.
California Governor Gavin Newsom on Monday reimposed restrictions on businesses and schools as new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continue to surge in the nation’s most populous state. Bars, restaurants, museums, zoos and movie theaters have all been forced to cease indoor operations.
Texas saw current hospitalizations fall by five on Monday, breaking 14 consecutive days of record highs, the state health department confirmed Monday.

Investors also digested positive news on the vaccine front on Monday. Two experimental coronavirus vaccines jointly developed by German biotech company BioNTech and U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer received “fast track” designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Reuters reported Monday that a senior U.S. official had said drugmakers working with the U.S. government were on track to begin actively manufacturing vaccines by the end of summer.
Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed in a Kentucky radio interview that negotiations will begin next week on a fifth coronavirus response bill, with Democrats and Republicans split on the extent of aid required.

Auctions will be held Tuesday for $34 billion of 52-week Treasury bills, $35 billion of 119-day bills and $35 billion of 42-day bills.

______________________________________________________

On Monday 13, July 2020

10-year Treasury yield rises slightly after positive vaccine news (Morning Update)

Yun Li,Elliot Smith


Long-maturity Treasury yields rose on Monday after positive vaccine news raised hope for a faster economic recovery from the unprecedented pandemic.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged up 2 basis points to 0.6562% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond gained 3 basis points at 1.3605%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys



















































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1370.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1570.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1590.0040.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.2990.0010.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6430.010.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.3410.0150.00
Yields turned higher after two experimental coronavirus vaccines jointly developed by German biotech firm BioNTech and U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer have received “fast track” designation from the U.S. drug regulator,
Pfizer and BioNTech said they expect to begin a large trial with up to 30,000 participants as soon as later this month, if they receive regulatory approval. The companies expect to have 100 million doses of a vaccine by the end of 2020 and more than 1.2 billion doses by the end of 2021, according to a release.
Still, investors are closely monitoring the continuing spike in new coronavirus cases in the U.S.
The U.S. has reported more than 60,000 new cases for three consecutive days, bringing total cases in the country past 3.3 million, according to Johns Hopkins University. Florida on Sunday reported 15,299 new cases, by far the highest for a single state since the pandemic began.
Earnings season is set to kick off this week, with major banks Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo all set to report Tuesday.
There are no major economic data releases scheduled for Monday.
Auctions will be held Monday for $54 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $51 billion of 26-week bills.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 10, July 2020

Treasury yields off the lows after positive virus treatment news from Gilead (Morning Update).

Yun Li


Treasury yields bounced off their lows and traded near the flat line on Friday after Gilead said its antiviral drug remdesivir reduces mortality risk, raising hopes for a coronavirus treatment.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note were about little changed at 0.599% after hitting its lowest level since April 22 earlier in the session. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dipped about 2 basis points to 1.283%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Yields came off their lows after Gilead said Friday that its antiviral drug remdesivir, a coronavirus treatment candidate, showed an improvement in clinical recovery and a 62% reduction in the risk of mortality compared with standard of care.

The coronavirus outbreak across the U.S. continues to grow with the country reporting another record single-day spike of more than 63,200 new cases on Thursday, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University. In the latest, Nevada is rolling back some of its reopening, shutting down bars in certain counties with growing outbreaks.

“The rising case count in the sunbelt combined with solid receptions to the 10- and 30-year auctions have been credited for the bulk of the bid,” Ian Lyngan, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note on Friday. “The daily Covid-19 stats will presumably contribute to the overall direction of US rates and the backdrop of bullish momentum has already set the tone.”

The benchmark 10-year yield has fallen about 10 basis points this week alone. The rate traded lower on Thursday even as a larger-than-expected fall in initial jobless claims showed a progress in economic recovery amid the pandemic.
There are no Treasury auctions scheduled Friday.

—CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed reporting.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 9, July 2020

Treasury yields fall slightly despite better-than-expected jobless claims (Morning Update).

Yun Li,Sam Meredith


Treasury yields dipped on Thursday even as a larger-than-expected fall in initial jobless claims showed a progress in economic recovery amid the pandemic.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell about 2 basis points to 0.635% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond traded 3 basis points lower at 1.360%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Initial jobless claims hit 1.314 million last week, compared to a Dow Jones estimate of 1.39 million. Continuing claims, or those who have been collecting for at least two weeks, dropped 698,000 from a week ago to 18.06 million.

Still, weekly claims have stayed above 1 million for 15 consecutive weeks as workers struggle to get back to their jobs amid rising coronavirus cases.

Market focus is largely attuned to worries over the rising number of coronavirus cases, as global Covid-19 infections surpassed 12 million on Wednesday, with over half a million related deaths.
The global health crisis has prompted many central banks around the world to unload massive emergency stimulus measures in an effort to stimulate an economic recovery.

Stimulus tends to boost gold prices, with the precious metal breaking through the technical $1,800 per ounce threshold in the previous session.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $40 billion of 4-week bills, $40 billion of 8-week bills and $19 billion of 29-year and 10-month bonds on Thursday.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 8, July 2020

Treasury yields hold steady as investors digest a spike in new coronavirus cases (Afternoon Update).

Silvia Amaro


Treasury yields were flat on Wednesday as investors assessed a record daily spike in coronavirus cases in the U.S.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 0.653% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also flat at 1.386%. Yields move inversely to prices.
On Tuesday, long-maturity yields dropped on concerns over the coronavirus. The United States is grappling with a growing number of infections, having surpassed the 3 million threshold on Tuesday. In San Francisco, authorities decided to delay the reopening of indoor dining.

Speaking to CNBC, Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said he is worried about the long-lasting effects of the pandemic. “There might have to be closures again. It might have a worse psychological response the second time,” he said in reference to a potential second wave.

Treasurys

































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1470.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1570.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.157-0.0080.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.291-0.0020.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6510.0030.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.388-0.0010.00
The United States also announced Tuesday it is officially leaving the World Health Organization in 2021. President Trump has criticized the way the institution has dealt with the outbreak. The move brings uncertainty over the future of the WHO.

On the data front, there will be consumer credit numbers at 3 p.m. ET. Traders are also likely to monitor a speech by Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic at 12.15 p.m. ET.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $29 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 7, July 2020

10-year Treasury yield falls slightly amid rising coronavirus cases (Morning Update).

Sam Meredith


Long-maturity bond yields dipped on Tuesday as Investors continued to grapple with a continuous rise in coronavirus cases in the U.S.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was slightly lower at 0.663% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also down at 1.423%. Yields move inversely to prices.

To date, nearly 3 million people have contracted the virus in the U.S., with 130,306 deaths nationwide, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 grew by 5% or more Sunday in 23 states, including Texas, which reported a record of more than 8,000 hospitalizations on Sunday

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told The Financial Times the U.S. economic recovery will be “bumpier” as coronavirus cases continue to rise.

“While the nuances of the Covid-19 pandemic will continue making headlines and providing tradeable news, the wide error bands around potential economic outcomes ensure we’re unlikely to see a retest of the March 9th low for 10-year yields at 31.3 bp or a breach of the 1.273% peak which followed eight short trading days later,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note Tuesday.

Stateside, data published Monday showed the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index rose more than expected in June.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $35 billion of 119-day bills, $35 billion of 42-day bills and $46 billion of 3-year notes.

— CNBC’s Eustance Huang contributed to this report.


______________________________________________________

On Monday 6, July 2020

10-year Treasury yield rises above 0.7% after better-than-expected economic data (Afternoon Update).

Yun Li,Sam Meredith


Treasury yields climbed on Monday as stronger-than-expected economic data signaled a recovering economy amid the coronavirus pandemic 

Treasurys







































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1450.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1570.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1590.0040.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3010.0040.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6780.0070.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.440.0070.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 3 basis points at 0.700% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up at 1.467%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Data on Monday showed the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index rose more than expected in June. The index jumped to 57.1 last month, topping a Dow Jones estimate of 50.1. The gauge signaled the first expansion within the sector in three months and also posted the biggest month-over-month increase on record.
Investors are still closely monitoring the continued rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S.
In the first four days of July, Reuters reported 15 U.S. states had record increases in new cases of the coronavirus. To date, the U.S. has recorded 2.8 million cases of the virus, with 129,947 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

In a Fourth of July speech, President Donald Trump promised to “safeguard” American values from enemies within, stoking national divisions on a day typically meant for unity and celebration.
Trump did not mention the number of fatalities due to the coronavirus in his speech, with almost 130,000 people known to have died from Covid-19 in the U.S. That is far more than any other country in the world.

The U.S. Treasury will auction $54 billion of 13-week bills and $51 billion of 26-week bills on Monday.

______________________________________________________

10-year Treasury yield rises above 0.7% after better-than-expected economic data (Morning Update).

Yun Li,Sam Meredith


Treasury yields climbed on Monday as stronger-than-expected economic data signaled a recovering economy amid the coronavirus pandemic 

Treasurys











































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1470.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.160.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1610.0060.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3130.0160.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6960.0250.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4580.0250.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 3 basis points at 0.700% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up at 1.467%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Data on Monday showed the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index rose more than expected in June. The index jumped to 57.1 last month, topping a Dow Jones estimate of 50.1. The gauge signaled the first expansion within the sector in three months and also posted the biggest month-over-month increase on record.

Investors are still closely monitoring the continued rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S.
In the first four days of July, Reuters reported 15 U.S. states had record increases in new cases of the coronavirus. To date, the U.S. has recorded 2.8 million cases of the virus, with 129,947 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

In a Fourth of July speech, President Donald Trump promised to “safeguard” American values from enemies within, stoking national divisions on a day typically meant for unity and celebration.
Trump did not mention the number of fatalities due to the coronavirus in his speech, with almost 130,000 people known to have died from Covid-19 in the U.S. That is far more than any other country in the world.

The U.S. Treasury will auction $54 billion of 13-week bills and $51 billion of 26-week bills on Monday.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 2 July 2020

Treasury yields fall amid job market doubts: June was 'respite from the storm' (Afternoon Update).

Elliot Smith


U.S. yields fell on Thursday, reversing an earlier uptick, as more traders began to doubt the longevity of nonfarm payroll gains amid persistent unemployment claims and a spike in coronavirus cases.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slipped to 0.669% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond ticked lower to 1.429%. Bond yields fall as their prices rise.
Treasury yields initially rose Thursday morning after the Labor Department reported U.S. nonfarm jobs increased by 4.8 million in June, far better than the 2.9 million jump economists polled by Dow Jones had been expecting.
Investors also at first applauded a decline in the national unemployment rate, which dropped to 11.1% from 13.3% in May.
But lingering pessimism over elevated unemployment claims later eclipsed the bond market’s optimism over the June payrolls numbers.

Treasurys













































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1470.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.157-0.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.155-0.0090.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.294-0.0190.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.669-0.0130.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.429-0.0050.00
In a separate report, the Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims rose by 1.427 million. The print marked the 15th straight week in which initial claims remained above 1 million and a came in higher than expected by economists.

The data also showed the number of continuing claims — the number of people receiving unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks — rose to 19.29 million, an increase of about 59,000.
“Unfortunately, deepening pain is on the horizon. As bad as the labor market is, it’s likely that June is a temporary respite from the storm,” wrote Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and director of policy at the Economic Policy Institute.

“Given the increase in coronavirus over the last couple of weeks along with re-shuttering of businesses as well as the pending expiration (on July 25th) of the $600 enhanced weekly unemployment insurance benefits, June’s labor market—as weak as it is—is the best we can expect for a while,” she added.

More governors of states most impacted by a fresh surge in coronavirus infections have reversed plans to reopen their economies, after the U.S. saw its second-highest daily rise in new cases to date on Wednesday, with California and Arizona setting records.

- CNBC’s Pippa Stevens contributed reporting. 

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields rise after ADP report shows positive May revision (Morning Update)

Elliot Smith


U.S. government debt yields ticked higher Wednesday after a report showed that businesses continued to hire workers in June following the coronavirus shutdown.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher at 0.676% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 1.44%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The move higher in U.S. debt yields followed a report that showed private payrolls in the country grew by 2.369 million in June, shy of the 2.5 million expected from economists polled by Dow Jones, according to ADP and Moody's Analytics. Hiring in June was especially strong in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality industry, which continues to bear a significant economic burden amid the coronavirus outbreak and social distancing measures.
The larger surprise, however, came in a dramatic upward revision to the May private payrolls number to a gain of 3.065 million. ADP's initial May report showed a loss of 2.76 million.
June's ISM manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers' index), employment, prices and new orders data is all due at 10 a.m. ET, and is expected to show a continued recovery last month for U.S. manufacturing activity and hiring.
A survey Tuesday indicated a sharp uptick in U.S. consumer confidence in June, with the Conference Board consumer confidence index rising 12.2 points to 98.1 as businesses reopened. However, a recent surge in cases has cast doubt over the speed of a possible economic recovery.
In congressional testimony on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he expects more government stimulus funding to be approved by the end of July, with up to $140 billion in small business loans potentially redirected to support restaurants, hotels and other industries most impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the outlook is "extraordinarily uncertain."
The U.S. reported another record daily spike in new infections on Tuesday with more than 47,000, according to a Reuters tally, with California, Texas and Arizona all reporting record increases. Top White House infections disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci warned in a congressional testimony on Tuesday that the rate of new infections could eventually surpass 100,000 per day at the current trajectory.

Auctions will be held Wednesday for $25 billion of 105-day Treasury bills and $30 billion of 154-day bills.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 30, June 2020

Treasury yields rise slightly to wrap up the second quarter (Afternoon Update)

Yun Li,Elliot Smith


Treasury yields rose slightly on Tuesday to close out a volatile second quarter.

Treasurys





















































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.147-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.157-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.152-0.0080.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.2880.0070.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6580.0220.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4160.0260.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 0.663% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 3 basis points at 1.427%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday.
In remarks prepared for a congressional hearing Tuesday, Powell said that despite a recent uptick in economic activity as lockdown measures are eased across the world’s largest economy, the outlook is “extraordinarily uncertain” and will rely on both containing the virus and government support for the recovery.
Mnuchin said he expects more stimulus funding to be approved by the end of July.
Meanwhile, coronavirus cases continue to surge around the country, forcing states including New Jersey, Arizona and Kansas to walk back plans to further ease lockdown measures. A Reuters tally showed that California marked a record daily spike in new Covid-19 cases on Monday as Los Angeles health officials warned that hospitals could become overwhelmed.
According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. has now confirmed more than 2.59 million coronavirus cases with more than 126,000 deaths, and Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday that the virus is spreading too rapidly in the country to be brought under control.
Auctions will be held Tuesday for $35 billion of 119-day Treasury bills and $35 billion of 42-day bills.

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields flat ahead of Fed chair Powell's testimony (Morning Update)

Yun Li, Elliot Smith


Treasury yields held steady on Tuesday before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to address the central bank’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Treasurys























































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.147-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.157-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.15-0.010.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.2820.0010.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6460.010.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4030.0130.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was flat at 0.633% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down slightly at 1.384%. Yields move inversely to prices.
In remarks prepared for a congressional hearing Tuesday, Powell said that despite a recent uptick in economic activity as lockdown measures are eased across the world’s largest economy, the outlook is “extraordinarily uncertain” and will rely on both containing the virus and government support for the recovery.
Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 12:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, coronavirus cases continue to surge around the country, forcing states including New Jersey, Arizona and Kansas to walk back plans to further ease lockdown measures. A Reuters tally showed that California marked a record daily spike in new Covid-19 cases on Monday as Los Angeles health officials warned that hospitals could become overwhelmed.
According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. has now confirmed more than 2.59 million coronavirus cases with more than 126,000 deaths, and Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday that the virus is spreading too rapidly in the country to be brought under control.
With more than 10.3 million cases worldwide, World Health Organization’s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned Monday that the pandemic is “not even close to being over.”
S&P/Case-Shiller home price data for April is due at 9 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
Auctions will be held Tuesday for $35 billion of 119-day Treasury bills and $35 billion of 42-day bills.

______________________________________________________

On Monday 29, June 2020

Treasury yields flat amid a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Elliot Smith


Treasury yields were flat on Monday after record new coronavirus cases tempered optimism over an imminent economic recovery.

Treasurys





























































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.142-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.157-0.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.158-0.010.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.285-0.0120.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6380.000.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.3860.0140.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 0.648% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose fractionally to 1.3835%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The U.S. now has more than 2.5 million confirmed infections and more than 125,000 deaths from Covid-19, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, with a spike of 45,255 on Friday alone. The global toll stands at more than 10.1 million cases and more than 501,000 deaths.
Florida reported a single-day record for new cases of 9,636 on Saturday followed by 8,577 on Sunday, while Texas on Friday rolled back some of its reopening efforts having also reported record rises in infections.
Arizona Gov. Dough Ducey said Friday that new cases in the state are “growing fast across all age groups and demographics” and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar warned on Sunday that the “window is closing” for the U.S. to bring the pandemic under control.
Yields remained flat after data on Monday showed pending home sales spiked a stunning 44.3% in May, compared with April. It marked the largest one-month jump in the history of the survey, which dates back to 2001.

Auctions will be held Monday for $54 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $51 billion of 26-week bills.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 26, June 2020

U.S. 5-year yield falls to record low after Texas curbs reopening thanks to Covid cases (Afternoon Update).

Thomas Franck, Silvia Amaro


U.S. government debt yields dropped to record lows on Friday as angst over the spread of Covid-19 and fears of a wide rollback in reopening efforts sent investors in search of safer securities like Treasurys.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 0.636% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped to 1.379%.
The yields on the 3-year and 5-year Treasury notes sank to record lows of 0.17% and 0.29%, respectively. Bond yields rise as their prices drop.
U.S. yields, which had traded flat until around 10 a.m. ET, rolled over after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said that the state will curb some of its reopening measures as coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continue to rise.
Florida announced it would suspend on-premises alcohol consumption at bars in the state in a similar effort to slow the spread of the disease. In Arizona, the number of cases jumped by 5.4%, topping a seven-day average of 2.9%.
“Case counts and closures will once again be the primary drivers of price action in the Treasury market as the weekend approaches,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
“While the trade war and looming election carry with them a degree of event risk, the influence of Covid-19 on expectations for both the depth of the recession and the pace of the recovery remains the dominant factor in the macro narrative,” Lyngen added.

Treasurys































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1450.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.162-0.0160.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.168-0.0160.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.302-0.0240.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.64-0.0340.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.374-0.0430.00
Yields fell on Thursday amid concerns of a resurgence in Covid-19 infections in the United States with California, Texas and Florida seeing record numbers of new cases.
The surge in new cases has throughout the week dampened Wall Street’s hopes of a quick economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Investors shifted out of risky assets on Tuesday and Wednesday, when California and Florida reported record daily spikes.
Houston, meanwhile, said its intensive care unit is almost at capacity as the spread intensifies in Texas. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut now require visitors from states with high infection rates to quarantine for 14 days upon the arrival.
Yields also fell in the prior session after data showed an additional 1.48 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits during the week ended June 20. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a print of 1.35 million. This marks the second week that U.S. jobless claims data were worse than expected and the 14th straight week of initial claims over 1 million.

______________________________________________________

U.S. Treasury yields fall after Texas curbs reopening thanks to Covid cases (Morning Update).

Thomas Franck, Silvia Amaro


U.S. government debt yields dropped Friday as angst over the spread of Covid-19 and fears of a wide rollback in reopening efforts sent investors in search of safer securities like Treasurys.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 0.645% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped to 1.382%. Bond yields rise as their prices drop.
U.S. yields, which had traded flat until around 10 a.m. ET, rolled over after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said that the state will curb some of its reopening measures as coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continue to rise.
“At this time, it is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars,” Abbott said in a release. 

Treasurys

































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1420.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.165-0.0130.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.168-0.0160.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.30-0.0260.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.643-0.0310.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.382-0.0350.00
Yields fell on Thursday amid concerns of a resurgence in Covid-19 infections in the United States with California, Texas and Florida seeing record numbers of new cases.
The surge in new cases has throughout the week dampened Wall Street’s hopes of a quick economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Investors shifted out of risky assets on Tuesday and Wednesday, when California and Florida reported record daily spikes.
Houston, meanwhile, said its intensive care unit is almost at capacity as the spread intensifies in Texas. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut now require visitors from states with high infection rates to quarantine for 14 days upon the arrival.
Yields also fell in the prior session after data showed an additional 1.48 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits during the week ended June 20. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a print of 1.35 million. This marks the second week that U.S. jobless claims data were worse than expected and the 14th straight week of initial claims over 1 million.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 25, June 2020

Treasury yields fall on virus worry and disappointing jobs data (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields dipped on Thursday after fears about a resurgence in coronavirus deepened. The worse-than-expected jobless claims data also drove investors into safer bonds.

Treasurys



































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.142-0.010.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.175-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.184-0.0040.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.329-0.0010.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.677-0.0070.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.421-0.0250.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell about 3 basis points to 0.663% and the yield on the 30-year bond was 4 basis points lower at 1.406%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Hopes of a quick economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic have been dampened by a surge in new cases across a number of states. California and Florida reported record daily spikes on Wednesday, while Houston said its intensive care unit is almost at capacity as the spread intensifies in Texas.
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have ordered visitors from hotspot states to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
More than 2.38 million coronavirus cases have been reported in the U.S. with at least 121,979 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Yields remained lower after data showed an additional 1.48 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a print of 1.35 million. This marks the second straight week that U.S. jobless claims data were worse than expected.
Still, the total of those receiving benefits continued to fall as continuing claims fell by 767,000 to 19.52 million.
“So after 9 weeks of sharp slowdowns in the pace of increase in those filing initial claims, the rate over the past two weeks has slowed and of course is still very elevated,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said in a note.
Investors are also reacting to International Monetary Fund’s downgrade of its global economic forecasts and a warning about soaring debt levels. The IMF on Wednesday forecast a contraction of 4.9% in global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020, lower than the 3% fall it predicted in April. A growth rate of 5.4% is now expected in 2021, down from a forecast of 5.8% in April.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $50 billion of 4-week Treasury bills and $50 billion of 8-week bills, along with $41 billion of 7-year notes.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 24, June 2020

Treasury yields fall slightly on virus concerns (Afternoon Update).

Silvia Amaro


Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday as investors grew more fearful of a coronavirus resurgence.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to 0.69% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 1.44%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys





































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1570.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1780.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.186-0.010.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.317-0.0080.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.684-0.0250.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.442-0.0470.00
An acceleration of Covid-19 cases sparked angst among investors about the economy and recent reopening efforts. Florida confirmed its Covid-19 cases jumped by 5,508 on Tuesday, a new record. Meanwhile, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said travelers from states with high coronavirus infection rates that are coming to New York, Connecticut and New Jersey must quarantine for 14 days.
The fears triggered a big sell-off in the stock market, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.6%.
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned Tuesday that certain areas in the country are facing a “disturbing surge” of Covid-19 cases.
The International Monetary Fund projected that the contraction in the global economy will be worse than previously feared, shrinking 4.9% in 2020. Previous projections called for a 3% decline. The Fund also lowered growth projections in 2021, saying the global economy will expand 5.4%, down from 5.8%.
Bond traders are also likely to monitor speeches from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.
Auctions will be held Wednesday for $20 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $47 billion of 5-year notes.

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields move higher ahead of economic data (Morning Update).

Silvia Amaro


Treasurys







































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1520.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.175-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.19-0.0060.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3250.000.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.692-0.0170.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.456-0.0330.00
U.S. government debt prices fell on Tuesday as investors assessed the chances of an economic recovery amid a higher reading in manufacturing activity in the United States. Nonetheless, investors are also monitoring coronavirus infection rates.
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned Tuesday that certain areas in the country are facing a “disturbing surge” of Covid-19 cases.
On the data front, house price index figures are due at 9 a.m. ET. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is also releasing its latest economic forecasts at the same time.
The IMF said earlier this month that it is set to downgrade forecasts, while warning that the Covid-19 crisis is “unlike anything the world has seen.”
Bond traders are also likely to monitor speeches from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.
Auctions will be held Wednesday for $20 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $47 billion of 5-year notes.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 23, June 2020

Treasury yields inch higher with recovery prospects, coronavirus cases in focus ( Morning Update).

Elliot Smith


U.S. government debt prices were slightly lower on Tuesday morning as investors monitored the prospects of imminent economic recovery.

Treasurys









































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.152-0.0080.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1780.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1920.000.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.333-0.0020.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7220.0180.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4960.0340.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose about 1 basis point to 0.721% and the yield on the 30-year bond was up 3 basis points at 1.493%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Risk markets received a brief scare overnight after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told Fox News that the U.S.-China trade deal was “over,” but Navarro quickly walked back the comments, claiming to have been taken “wildly out of context” and calming investor sentiment.
On the data front, the U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) jumped to 49.6 in June, a four-month high and a sharp rebound from 39.8 in May, according to IHS Markit. Any reading below 50 signals a contraction. On the services side, the IHS PMI rose to a reading of 46.7 in June, versus 37.5 in May.
However, market focus is also attuned to rising coronavirus infections across the U.S. and beyond as economies continue to reopen, with a number of states reporting record daily spikes in new cases and hospitalizations over the past week.

Auctions will be held Tuesday for $40 billion of 119-day Treasury bills, $20 billion of 273-day bills, $40 billion of 42-day bills and $46 billion of 2-year notes.

______________________________________________________

On Monday 22, June 2020

Treasury yields flat as investors assess the pace of economic recovery (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith


Treasury yields held steady on Monday as investors monitored a rise in new coronavirus cases across the U.S..

Treasurys













































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.152-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.175-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.184-0.0040.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.32-0.0070.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.689-0.010.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.45-0.020.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 0.692% and the yield on the 30-year bond fell slightly to 1.455%. Yields move inversely to prices.
More than 30,000 new Covid-19 cases were reported in the U.S. on Friday and Saturday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the highest daily totals since May 1 as infections spiked in states across the South, West and Midwest.
The recent coronavirus uptick in some states led Apple to reclose some of its stores. Meanwhile, a trade group said cruise lines voluntarily suspended all trips until Sept. 15.
The World Health Organization (WHO) also reported a rise in global cases on Sunday of 183,020, taking the total cases around the world past 8.7 million as countries attempt to reopen their economies following months of lockdown measures.
On the data front, existing homes sales tumbled 9.7% in May from April to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.91 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down 26.6% annually, the largest annual decline since 1982,
Auctions will be held Monday for $57 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $54 billion of 26-week bills.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 19, June 2020

Treasury yields move higher, on track for small weekly advance (Morning Update).

Silvia Amaro


U.S. government debt prices were lower Friday morning as traders awaited speeches from the Fed and monitored the latest developments in the coronavirus crisis.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher at 1.4917% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also moving higher at 0.7200%. Yields move inversely to prices. The 10-year yield has risen just about 3 basis points this week.
Risk sentiment was boosted on Friday after Bloomberg News reported China was set to up its purchases of U.S. farm products to comply with phase one trade deal. Investors cheered the news as tensions between the two nations had risen recently due to the handling of the virus.
On Thursday, bond investors took a cautious approach on the back of rising infections in certain U.S. states as well as China. In the meantime, a Chinese Center for Disease Control expert said that a recent outbreak in Beijing is under control, which has contributed to a more positive sentiment towards equities this Friday morning.

Treasurys

















































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1570.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1850.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1960.0010.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3460.020.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7330.0390.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.5180.0570.00
The data calendar is thin with only current account figures for the first quarter due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
In the meantime, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren is due to speak at 10:15 a.m. ET; Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles is also due to address a video audience at 12 p.m. ET. Later on, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will address a virtual discussion on Building a Resilient Workforce During the Covi-19 Era.

There are no auctions planned for Friday.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 18, June 2020

Treasury yields fall as fears grow of a rise in coronavirus cases (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith


U.S. government debt prices were higher Thursday morning as spiking coronavirus cases in some U.S. states and also China dented hopes of a rapid economic recovery.

Treasurys



















































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.165-0.0130.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.19-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.195-0.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.33-0.0090.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.71-0.0230.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.494-0.0290.00
At around 2:40 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down at 0.7167% and the yield on the 30-year bond fell to 1.5017%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Texas saw an 11% rise in hospitalizations related to Covid-19 on Wednesday, while Arizona reported a record daily high of new confirmed cases.
Meanwhile, a new cluster of infections in Beijing prompted the city to cancel flights, close schools and block off certain neighborhoods, according to Reuters. The virus has now infected at least 8.3 million people around the world and 2.1 million Americans.
Investor focus will also be attuned Thursday morning to last week’s jobless claims numbers, set for publication at 8:30 a.m. ET. Weekly unemployment claims for the week ended June 13 are expected to come in at a seasonally adjusted 1.3 million, according to a Reuters poll of economists, down from 1.524 million the previous week.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $60 billion of 4-week Treasury bills, $55 billion of 8-week bills and $15 billion of 5-year TIPS.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 17, June 2020

Treasury yields hold steady as investors monitor the pace of economic recovery (Morning Update)

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields were flat on Wednesday as investors monitor the coronavirus development and the progress of the economic recovery.

Treasurys





















































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1720.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.201-0.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.199-0.0040.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.342-0.0080.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7550.0010.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.5510.0130.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 0.755% and the yield on the 30-year bond edged up to 1.550%.
A dire economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) late on Tuesday offered a reality check to investors hoping for a rapid rebound for the global economy.
In a blog post, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath cautioned that “the forthcoming June World Economic Outlook Update is expected to show negative growth rates even worse than previously estimated” and the current crisis is “unlike anything the world has seen before.”
Yields and stock markets also retreated from Tuesday’s highs after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress that the central bank would approach its new corporate bond buying plan based on market conditions, and would not “run through the bond market like an elephant.”
Powell also warned that the American economy would not truly recover until the public is convinced that the coronavirus pandemic is under control. His testimony continues at 12 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Risk sentiment had been boosted Tuesday by the Fed’s plan to buy individual corporate bonds, along with a Bloomberg report of a potential $1 trillion infrastructure program from the White House, the discovery of a new drug which drastically reduces coronavirus death rates in seriously ill patients and a record surge in U.S. retail sales.
U.S. housing starts and building permits figures for May are due at 8:30 a.m., but there are no major economic data releases on Wednesday.

Auctions will be held Wednesday for $35 billion of 105-day Treasury bills, $40 billion of 154-day bills and $17 billion of 20-year bonds.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 16, June 2020

Treasury yields surge on government and Fed stimulus hopes (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith


U.S. government debt prices were sharply lower Tuesday morning after the Federal Reserve announced that it will begin buying individual corporate bonds, while a report suggested that President Donald Trump’s administration is preparing a $1 trillion infrastructure package.

Treasurys























































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1780.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1850.0070.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.2010.0120.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.350.0240.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7510.0490.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.520.0710.00
At around 2:10 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note surged to 0.7479% and the yield on the 30-year bond rose to 1.5213%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Yields began their ascent on Monday night after the Fed said it would include the purchase of individual corporate bonds. The move broadens the central bank’s secondary market corporate credit facility (SMCCF) beyond the purchase of exchange-traded funds, as part of a continued effort to support financial market functioning and ease credit conditions.
Risk sentiment then received a further boost overnight as Bloomberg News reported that the White House is drawing up a $1 trillion infrastructure proposal, focusing on traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges along with 5G wireless networks and rural broadband.
The return of monetary and fiscal stimulus into the spotlight calmed investor nerves over a spike in coronavirus cases across multiple states since economies began reopening, which had sent yields and stock markets tumbling at the start of the week.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to testify before Congress on the central bank’s monetary policy maneuvers at 10 a.m. ET. on Tuesday.
Prior to that, May’s retail sales data is due at 8:30 a.m. ET before industrial and manufacturing production figures at 9:15 a.m.
Auctions will be held Tuesday for $34 billion of 52-week Treasury bills, $40 billion of 119-day bills and $50 billion of 42-day bills.

CNBC’s Yun Li and Fred Imbert contributed to this report.

______________________________________________________

On Monday 15, June 2020

Treasury yields turn higher after Fed announces corporate bonds buying (Afternoon Update).

Yun Li, Fred Imbert, Elliot Smith

U.S. Treasury yields turned higher on Monday after the Federal Reserve said it will begin buying individual corporate bonds.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note gained about 1 basis point to 0.708% after trading around  0.667% earlier. The 30-year bond rate also gained slightly to 1.456%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Yields climbed after the central bank announced it will include the purchase of individual corporate bonds as part of a continuing effort to support market functioning and ease credit conditions. The program has the ability to buy up to $750 billion worth of corporate credit.

Treasurys

























































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1670.0020.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.180.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1930.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3330.0070.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7080.0090.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4550.0080.00
Before the Fed news, bond yields were lower as investors grew more fearful of a resurgence of the coronavirus cases amid the reopening economy.
A number of states including Alabama, California, Florida and North Carolina have experienced a rise in Covid-19 cases since they began to reopen their economies. Texas and North Carolina reported record numbers of coronavirus-related hospitalizations on Saturday.
China, the original epicenter of the pandemic, is also subject to concern about a second wave, after Reuters reported that a district of Beijing is in a “wartime emergency” due to the discovery of a new cluster of infections centered around a wholesale market.
President Donald Trump is planning to push ahead with an indoor campaign rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma on Saturday despite local concern over an uptick in cases.
Risk assets worldwide are starting the week on the backfoot after a significant pullback last week, fueled by rising fears over a second wave and profit-taking following a recent surge in stock prices.
“The global economy continues to reopen, but in a very uneven way and with signs of a spike in cases around the globe (China in particular) and the US,” Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading at AmeriVet Securities, said in a note. “Even from the highest levels, there has been cautious optimism but very few definitive answers as we move forward.”
“In the end, a spike in cases along with increased testing should not be a surprise,” Faranello added.
Data out Monday showed manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in the New York area this month. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted a reading of -0.2 in June after hitting record lows in the previous two months. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a reading of -35.

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields fall as second coronavirus wave fears intensify (Morning Update).

Yun Li,Fred Imbert, Elliot Smith

U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Monday as investors sought out shelter in traditionally safer bonds amid intensifying concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 0.667% while the 30-year bond rate dipped 4 basis points to 1.406%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys



























































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.170.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1830.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.189-0.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.325-0.0010.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.689-0.010.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.432-0.0150.00
“Not all news is good news,” said Oliver Brennan, macro strategist at TS Lombard, in a note.
“With evidence of a second wave in the US after the Memorial Day holiday and some EM countries still in the early stages of their crises, progress is distinctly non-linear,” said Brennan, adding that while risk assets such as stocks have rallied in recent weeks, the coronavirus crisis “is far from over.”
A number of states including Alabama, California, Florida and North Carolina have experienced a rise in Covid-19 cases since they began to reopen their economies. Texas and North Carolina reported record numbers of coronavirus-related hospitalizations on Saturday.
China, the original epicenter of the pandemic, is also subject to concern about a second wave, after Reuters reported that a district of Beijing is in a “wartime emergency” due to the discovery of a new cluster of infections centered around a wholesale market.
President Donald Trump is planning to push ahead with an indoor campaign rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma on Saturday despite local concern over an uptick in cases.
Risk assets worldwide are starting the week on the backfoot after a significant pullback last week, fueled by rising fears over a second wave and profit-taking following a recent surge in stock prices.
“The global economy continues to reopen, but in a very uneven way and with signs of a spike in cases around the globe (China in particular) and the US,” Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading at AmeriVet Securities, said in a note. “Even from the highest levels, there has been cautious optimism but very few definitive answers as we move forward.”
“In the end, a spike in cases along with increased testing should not be a surprise,” Faranello added.
Data out Monday showed manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in the New York area this month. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted a reading of -0.2 in June after hitting record lows in the previous two months. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a reading of -35.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 12, June 2020

10-year Treasury yield rebounds to 0.7% as investors return to risk assets after a drastic sell-off (Morning Update)

Yun Li, Silvia Amaro

Treasury yields jumped on Friday as stocks tried to rebound from their massive sell-off that drove investors to safer bonds.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed about 5 basis points to around 0.706% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also trading higher at 1.457%. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
This comes after significant drops in U.S. bond yields on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year paper plunged to its lowest level since June 3 to 0.65% and the return on the 30-year money dropped 10 basis points to 1.40%.
The bond market reacted after a sell-off in equities. Investors were concerned about a potential second wave in contagion from Covid-19. In addition, the Federal Reserve said earlier this week the U.S. economy is likely to contract 6.5% this year — a more severe downturn than what many were forecasting before.

Treasurys





























































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1780.0130.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.190.0070.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1970.0180.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3370.0350.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.710.0570.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4650.0620.00
On the data front, import prices and consumer sentiment figures will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET and 10 a.m. ET, respectively.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is due to submit its latest monetary policy report to Congress at 11 a.m. ET.

There are no Treasury auctions planned.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 11, June 2020

10-year Treasury yield drops to 0.65% on fears of a second coronavirus wave (Afternoon Update).

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields dropped on Thursday as rising fears of a second wave of the virus and a huge sell-off in stocks drove investors to safe-haven bonds.

Treasurys































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1720.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1850.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1990.020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.321-0.0160.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.667-0.0810.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.408-0.1120.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note plunged 8 basis points to 0.65%, hitting the lowest level since June 3. The yield on the 30-year bond fell 10 basis points to 1.40%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The drop in yields came as the stock market suffered the biggest one-day decline since March with the S&P 500 down more than 5% Thursday.
The coronavirus pandemic remains on investors’ radar, with confirmed infections in the U.S. now exceeding 2 million and several areas of the country reporting spikes following the reopening of their economies.
Texas has reported three consecutive days of record-breaking Covid-19 hospitalizations.  Meanwhile, nine California counties are reporting a spike in new coronavirus cases or hospitalizations of confirmed cases.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said Wednesday that it is seeking fast reviews of various Covid-19 treatments and tests for emergency clearance.
On the data front, Labor Department reported Thursday that the pace of unemployment claimsdeclined again last week to 1.54 million from 1.87 million the week prior. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a total of 1.6 million new claims during the week ending June 6.
On Wednesday, the Fed offered a dour forecast for the economy in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The central bank projected an economic contraction of 6.5% in 2020, after months of stymied business activity due to coronavirus-induced lockdowns, with the unemployment rate expected to be 9.3% by year-end.
However, the central bank sees GDP (gross domestic product) growth rebounding 5% in 2021 and a further 3.5% in 2022, and vowed to support the U.S. economy on the “long road” to recovery.

The Fed’s policymakers also voted unanimously to hold the federal funds target rate at 0%-0.25% range and the central bank projected no hikes through 2022.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $70 billion of 4-week Treasury bills, $60 billion of 8-week bills and $19 billion of 30-year bonds.

______________________________________________________

10-year yield falls below 0.7% on Fed gloom and fears of a second coronavirus wave (Morning Update)

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices were higher Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve offered a dour forecast for the economy in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.

Treasurys

































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1750.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.183-0.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.175-0.0040.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.309-0.0280.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.695-0.0530.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.463-0.0570.00
At around 4:45 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note plunged to 0.6984% and the yield on the 30-year bond fell to 1.4634%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The Fed’s policymakers voted unanimously to hold the federal funds target rate at 0%-0.25% range and the central bank projected no hikes through 2022.
The Fed also projected an economic contraction of 6.5% in 2020, after months of stymied business activity due to coronavirus-induced lockdowns, with the unemployment rate expected to be 9.3% by year-end.
However, the central bank sees GDP (gross domestic product) growth rebounding 5% in 2021 and a further 3.5% in 2022, and vowed to support the U.S. economy on the “long road” to recovery.
The coronavirus pandemic remains on investors’ radar, with confirmed infections in the U.S. now exceeding 2 million and several areas of the country reporting spikes following the reopening of their economies.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said Wednesday that it is seeking fast reviews of various Covid-19 treatments and tests for emergency clearance.
Last week’s jobless claims figures are expected at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. New filings for the week ended June 5 are projected to come in at 1.5 million, after 1.877 million Americans filed claims the previous week, signaling that the worst of the unprecedented layoffs resulting from the pandemic is over.
May’s PPI (producer price index) inflation readings are also due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $70 billion of 4-week Treasury bills, $60 billion of 8-week bills and $19 billion of 30-year bonds.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 10, June 2020

Treasury yields drop after Fed forecasts no rate hikes through 2022 (Afternoon Update)

Yun Li,Elliot Smith

Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates near zero and projected no increases in the near term as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

Treasurys



































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1720.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.185-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.181-0.0250.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.334-0.0730.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.748-0.0810.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.524-0.060.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped about 7 basis points to 0.753%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also down at 1.514%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The policymakers voted unanimously to keep the federal funds target rate in a range of 0% to 0.25%. The central bank also indicated no changes to the borrowing cost through 2022.
Along with the rate decision, the Fed projected the economy will shrink 6.5% in 2020, a year that saw an unprecedented halting of business activity in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic. However, 2021 is expected to show a 5% gain followed by 3.5% in 2022.
“The Fed is clearly signalling that we are not by any means out of the woods yet,” James McCann, Aberdeen Standard Investment’s senior global economist, said in a note. “Powell is trying to send a strong signal here today that the Fed is going to keep policy very loose for a long time.”
The Fed also said it would keep buying bonds, targeting $80 billion a month in Treasurys and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
“To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday following two-day policy meeting.
Data on Wednesday showed the consumer price index fell 0.1% in May, marking the third straight month of decline. The slight dip came after a 0.8% plunge in April amid the pandemic, which was the largest decline since December 2008.
Auctions will be held Wednesday for $35 billion of 105-day Treasury bills and $40 billion of 154-day bills.

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields fall further as investors await Fed decision (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices were higher Wednesday morning as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision and outlook for the economy.

Treasurys





































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1750.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.190.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.197-0.0090.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.387-0.020.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.809-0.020.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.565-0.0190.00
At around 2:25 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at 0.8171%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also down at 1.5676%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The central bank will announce its decision at 2 p.m. ET before a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. Although the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates below its current 0%-0.25% bound, some speculation has arisen that it could take steps to control the yield curve following a recent spike in yields.

Concerns have resurfaced around the reopening of economies as parts of California and the Southwest experience a fresh spike in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations. The virus is now confirmed to have infected more than 1.9 million Americans and more than 7.2 million people worldwide.

Data published Tuesday revealed that U.S. layoffs declined in April, but remained at the second-highest monthly total on record. Hiring fell to an all-time low, indicating that the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the labor market could drag on.

May’s inflation data is set for publication at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday and the monthly U.S. monthly budget statement is expected alongside the Fed’s announcement at 2 p.m.
Auctions will be held Wednesday for $35 billion of 105-day Treasury bills and $40 billion of 154-day bills.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 9, June 2020

Treasury yields fall as Fed meeting comes into focus (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices were sharply higher Tuesday morning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, after the U.S. economy was confirmed to have entered recession.

Treasurys







































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.172-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.190.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.22-0.010.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.425-0.0280.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.834-0.050.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.589-0.0690.00
At around 3:40 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at 0.8220% and the yield on the 30-year bond was down at 1.5758%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday. While markets expect short-term interest rates to remain steady at near zero, investors will be watching Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement for clues over the central bank’s next move.
Powell intimated at last month’s meeting that more stimulus could be necessary to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The Fed has already deployed an unprecedented barrage of rate cuts and credit and lending programs which could inject around $6 trillion into the economy.
The National Bureau of Economic Research officially confirmed on Monday that the U.S. economy peaked in February, signaling the end to the longest economic expansion in American history, which began in June 2009.
Market focus is also attuned to states’ efforts to reopen their economies amid the coronavirus pandemic, which has now infected more than 1.9 million Americans and more than 7 million people worldwide.
The World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday warned that the pandemic is “far from over” after a record number of new daily cases, and suggested that the virus has yet to peak in Central America.
On the economic data front, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism survey for June is expected at 10 a.m. ET Tuesday, along with April JOLTs job openings and wholesale inventory figures.
Auctions will be held Tuesday for $40 billion of 119-day Treasury bills, $60 billion of 42-day bills and $29 billion of 10-year notes.

______________________________________________________

On Monday 8, June 2020

Treasury yields mixed after last week's Wall Street rally (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices were little changed Monday morning as investors pause for breath following last week’s stock market rally.

Treasurys









































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.160.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1850.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.2180.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.466-0.0110.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.9070.0020.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.690.0120.00
At around 2:10 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 0.9019% and the yield on the 30-year bond also edged higher to 1.6819%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Yields surged on Friday after the Labor Department’s latest jobs data revealed that the U.S. economy added a record 2.5 million jobs in May, shattering expectations of an 8.33 million decline and sending stock markets soaring.
Investors continue to monitor the gradual reopening of economies across the U.S. and around the world, along with the status of the coronavirus pandemic, which has now infected more than 1.9 million Americans and more than 7 million people globally.
Nationwide protests against racism and police violence continued over the weekend, with protesters demanding police reform following the death of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, in police custody. However, the violence which marred earlier demonstrations has appeared to calm in recent days.
There is no major economic data expected Monday.
Auctions will be held Monday for $63 billion of 13-week Treasury bills, $54 billion of 26-week bills and $44 billion of 3-year notes.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 5, June 2020

10-year Treasury yield surges above 0.9% after better-than-expected jobs report (Morning Update).

Yun Li

Treasury yields surged on Friday after jobs data for May blew past expectations.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note popped 11 basis points to 0.926%, the highest level since March 24. The benchmark rate has risen about 30 basis points this week alone, on pace for its best weekly performance since late February.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also jumped about 10 basis points to 1.723%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Employment unexpectedly rose by 2.5 million in May and the jobless rate declined to 13.3% according to data Friday from the Labor Department. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to drop by 8.333 million and the unemployment rate to rise to 19.5% from April’s 14.7%.
The better-than-feared reading provided another signs of economic recovery from the depths of the damage from the coronavirus pandemic.
“This much better than expected report reinforces our view that April likely marked the trough in US economic activity,” Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, said in a note. “The sharp pick-up in leisure and hospitality jobs and in construction and retail  employment speaks to the impact of the easing in lockdowns in May and to the huge share of unemployed in April who were reported to be on ‘temporary’ lay-off.”
U.S. government bond yields had began to push higher Thursday after the European Central Bank announced higher-than-expected purchases of euro zone debt. The ECB said it will increase its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program by 600 billion euro, bringing the program’s total to more than 1 trillion euro.
“Helping to lift rates is the continued persistent rise in equity prices and all the stimulus coming, both monetary and fiscal,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

Treasurys











































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1570.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1830.010.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.2160.0220.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.4770.0730.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.9290.1090.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.7340.1080.00

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 4, June 2020

Treasury yields fall slightly after larger-than-expected jobless claims (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields dipped slightly on Thursday after disappointing jobless claims data raised concerns about the pace of a recovery.

Treasurys













































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.152-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.178-0.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.198-0.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3990.0220.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.8020.0410.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.5830.0320.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was slightly lower at 0.7508% and the yield on the 30-year bond also fell to 1.5373%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The Labor Department said Thursday filings for unemployment insurance claims totaled 1.877 million last week. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 1.775 million new claims.
Continuing claims, which provide a clearer picture of how many Americans remain unemployed, totaled 21.5 million, a gain of 649,000 over the past week, also worse than Wall Street expected.
Investors are also monitoring an array of downside risks, including nationwide mass protests against racial injustice, the continuing threat of the coronavirus pandemic and rising tensions between the U.S. and China.
Peaceful protests continued across major cities on Wednesday night but tensions appeared to ease after an upgrade of the murder charge for the police officer who knelt on the neck of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, for nearly nine minutes until his death. The three other officers at the scene have also been charged in connection with Floyd’s death.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday banned Chinese passenger planes from flying into the U.S. from June 16, in a bid to strongarm Beijing into allowing U.S. airlines to resume flights into China.
Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, more than 41 million claims have been filed, though the previous week’s figures indicated that the number of continuing claims had fallen sharply.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $80 billion of 4-week Treasury bills and $70 billion of 8-week bills.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 3, June 2020

Treasury yields climb as economic reopening outweighs civil unrest concerns (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith

Treasury yields climbed higher on Wednesday as optimism over the reopening of economies following coronavirus-induced shutdowns boosted risk appetite for investors.

Treasurys















































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1570.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.180.010.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1980.030.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3830.0640.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7670.0870.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.5610.0820.00
 The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was about 3 basis points higher at 0.712% and the yield on the 30-year bond rose to 1.531%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Wall Street rallied on Tuesday and the momentum looks set to continue, as the prospect of businesses reopening outweighs concerns about the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, rising U.S.-China tensions and nationwide civil unrest following the death in police custody of George Floyd, an unarmed black man.

Protests continued in major cities across the U.S. on Tuesday for the eighth consecutive night as tens of thousands defied curfews, while the Pentagon moved troops to Washington, D.C.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s office revealed Tuesday that it is investigating digital services taxes being either adopted or considered by a number of major economies including the U.K., Italy and Brazil, which could bring about fresh punitive tariffs and heighten global trade tensions.
On the data front, private sector jobs fell 2.76 million last month, according to a report Wednesday from ADP. The number was far less than the 8.75 million estimate.

Auctions will be held Wednesday for $40 billion of 105-day Treasury bills and $40 billion of 154-day bills.

______________________________________________________

On GTuesday 2, June 2020

Treasury yields rise slightly as investors bet on economy reopening

Elliot Smith

Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as investors focused on the reopening of the U.S. economy and U.S.-China relations
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher at 0.675% and the yield on the 30-year bond rose to 1.477%. Bond yields rise as their prices fall.
The rise in Treasury yields, as well as U.S. equity futures, came as investors continued to look ahead to the total reopening of the American economy and bet on slow-but-sure economic growth in the months ahead.
Treasurys weakened after Reuters reported that state-owned Chinese firms bought at least three cargos of U.S. soybeans on Monday even as sources in China said the government had told them to halt agricultural purchases.
The purchases, at least 180,000 tons of soybeans, are reportedly for shipment in October or November, the peak of the oilseed’s export season and when they are usually the cheapest.

Treasurys

















































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.15-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.167-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.160.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3070.0050.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6660.0040.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4710.0160.00
Still, news of Beijing’s soybean purchases came as a relief to some traders and as a sign that U.S.-China relations may not be as bad as feared. CNBC and others reported on Monday that Beijing had ordered its state-owned agricultural firms to stop purchases of U.S. soybeans and pork after Washington threatened to eliminate special treatment of Hong Kong.
Other markets pointed to optimism about the country reopening from the widespread mandated shutdowns due to the coronavirus. Oil added 2.7%. 

______________________________________________________

On Monday 1, June 2020

Treasury yields rise slightly to begin June trading (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields climbed on Monday to start June trading as investors continued to assess the risks regarding the economy reopening as well as the U.S.-China tensions.

Treasurys



















































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1420.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1750.0020.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1620.0060.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.310.010.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6740.030.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4630.0590.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 0.674% and the yield on the 30-year bond climbed to 1.454%. Yields move inversely to prices.
With a new month beginning on Wall Street, investors are broadly monitoring the reopening of the economy following months of coronavirus-induced lockdown measures. However, many businesses are now also navigating nationwide protests against police brutality triggered by the killing of a black man, George Floyd in Minneapolis.
Market focus is also attuned to rising tensions between the U.S. and China. President Donald Trump on Friday announced that Hong Kong’s special status with the U.S. would be revoked following China’s passage of a national security bill increasing Beijing’s power over the city.
Yields remained lower after data on Monday showed On the data front, the IHS Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 43.1 in May  from 41.5 last month. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a reading of 43.8 for May.
Auctions will be held Monday for $63 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $54 billion of 26-week bills.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 29, May 2020

Treasury yields plunge ahead of Trump's press conference

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices were higher on Friday morning ahead of President Donald Trump’s press conference “on China”, which markets expect to further sour relations between the world’s two largest economies.

Treasurys





















































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.145-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.173-0.0070.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.168-0.0080.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.319-0.0270.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.671-0.0340.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.444-0.0310.00
At around 4:10 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down at 0.6640% and the yield on the 30-year bond fell to 1.4288%. Yields move inversely to prices.
President Trump said Thursday that he would hold a news conference “on China” without divulging details of the content. Wall Street took the hint to sell off in the final hour of trading.
The White House has been ratcheting up pressure on Beijing for weeks over blame for the coronavirus and, more recently, a new security law for Hong Kong that threatens the special administrative region’s autonomy, according to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Another 2.123 million Americans filed first-time jobless claims last week, the Labor Department said on Thursday. More than 40 million Americans have now filed for unemployment since the pandemic was declared in mid-March.
A revision from the Commerce Department Thursday also revealed that the U.S economy shrank 5% in the first quarter, versus a preliminary reading of a 4.8% decline.
April’s personal income and spending data is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday along with PCE (personal consumption expenditure) price index readings.
There are no Treasury auctions scheduled for Friday.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 28, May 2020

Treasury yields rise slightly as jobless claims top 2 million last week ( Morning Update)

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields rose slightly on Thursday after a fresh batch of economic data showed the pandemic’s damage to the U.S. economy.

Treasurys























































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1450.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.18-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.176-0.0060.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.335-0.0030.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.690.0130.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4630.030.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged up 2 basis points to 0.689% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 3 basis points at 1.45%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Another 2.123 million Americans filed first-time jobless claims last week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting 2.05 million new filings. Since the pandemic was declared in mid-March, more than 40 million have filed claims.
Meanwhile, the U.S economy shrank 5% in the first quarter, versus a preliminary reading of a 4.8% decline, according to a revision from the Commerce Department. This also marked the first negative GDP reading since in the first quarter of 2014.
Investor focus also remains attuned to escalating tensions between the U.S. and China over new security laws for Hong Kong. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Congress on Wednesday that Hong Kong risks losing its special status with the U.S. over concerns that the laws will diminish its independence from Beijing.
Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday overwhelmingly passed legislation calling for sanctions against Chinese officials over the detention and torture of Uighur Muslims in the country’s western region of Xinjiang.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $80 billion of 4-week Treasury bills, $70 billion of 8-week bills, $40 billion of 154-day bills and $38 billion of 7-year notes.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 27, May 2020

Treasury yields edge lower as U.S.-China tensions cool investor optimism (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith

Treasurys

























































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.137-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1730.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1860.0060.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3720.0210.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7210.0230.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4690.030.00
At around 4:05 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down at 0.6900% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was fractionally lower at 1.4327%. Yields move inversely to prices.
White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday that President Donald Trump is so “miffed” with China over new Hong Kong security laws and other matters that the landmark “phase one” trade deal signed between the two nations in January is no longer a priority to him.
Bloomberg News reported that the Trump Administration is considering sanctions on Chinese firms and officials over the new laws, which have raised concerns about Beijing’s control over the city in light of pro-democracy protests. President Trump said Tuesday that there will be an announcement on the matter by the end of this week.
The flare-up of tensions between the two economic superpowers has threatened to dent some of the momentum toward risk assets at the start of the week, as investors cheered economic reopening efforts and multiple reports of progress on coronavirus vaccines.
Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Congress will “probably” have to pass more legislation to mitigate the economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic. The Kentucky Republican said any new measure to boost the U.S. economy would be narrower in scope than the $3 trillion package House Democrats approved earlier this month.
There is no major economic data scheduled for publication Wednesday.
Auctions will be held Wednesday for $40 billion of 119-day Treasury bills, $25 billion of 273-day bills, $40 billion of 105-day bills, $45 billion of 5-year notes and $20 billion of 2-year FRNs (floating-rate notes).

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 26, May 2020

Treasury yields rise as coronavirus vaccine hopes drive risk-on sentiment ( Morning Update)

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices were lower on Tuesday in a holiday-shortened week, with mounting optimism about a coronavirus vaccine driving some risk-on sentiment from investors.

Treasurys



























































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1450.0230.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.162-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1860.0180.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3620.0290.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.6950.0360.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4130.0410.00
At around 2:10 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up at 0.6916% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 1.4050%. Yields move inversely to prices.
American biotech company Novavax said Monday that it had started the first human study of its experimental coronavirus vaccine, with initial results on safety and immune responses expected in July.
The news followed Moderna’s announcement last week that all 45 patients in its vaccine trial had developed coronavirus antibodies.
As states look to tentatively reopen their economies, the U.S. has now confirmed more than 1.6 million cases of the virus, resulting in more than 98,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Investors will also keep an eye on a flaring of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with disputes over blame for the coronavirus pandemic and new Hong Kong security laws threatening to derail the landmark “phase one” trade agreement signed in January.
On the data front, S&P/Case-Shiller home price readings for March are due at 9 a.m ET Tuesday, before April’s new home sales figures at 10 a.m. ET.
Auctions will be held Tuesday for $63 billion of 13-week Treasury bills, $54 billion of 26-week bills, $65 billion of 42-day bills and $44 billion of 2-year notes.

______________________________________________________

On Friday 22, May 2020

10-year Treasury yield falls to lowest in a week on rising U.S.-China tensions ( Morning Update)

Silvia Amaro

Treasury yields were under pressure on Friday on concerns over new instability in Hong Kong and increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a low of 0.627% on Friday, its lowest level in a week. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also moving lower at 1.3517%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Treasurys





























































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1220.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.162-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.164-0.0030.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.329-0.0090.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.656-0.0210.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.363-0.0350.00
Investors are reacting to the latest news that China is set to impose a new national security law on Hong Kong, which could spark further anti-government protests. Beijing’s control over the city will likely evoke the ire of the U.S. and other Western powers which supported pro-democracy protesters.
“The overnight bid for Treasuries was aided by China’s efforts to impose greater control on Hong Kong; a move which not only has implications for the financial hub but also points toward the reescalation of tensions between Trump and Xi,” Ian Lyngen, BMO’s head of U.S. rates, said in a note Friday.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate passed legislation on Wednesday that could restrict Chinese companies from listing on American exchanges or raise money from U.S. investors, unless they abide by Washington’s regulatory and audit standards.
In addition, China has said that it will not set a growth target for 2020, given the uncertainty sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic.
There are no economic data releases, Fed speeches or Treasury auctions Friday as the U.S. heads for an extended weekend to commemorate Memorial Day on Monday.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 21, May 2020

Treasury yields are flat as another 2.4 million Americans filed for unemployment (Afternoon Update)

Elliot Smith

Treasury yields held steady on Thursday after data showed another 2.4 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Treasurys

































































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.122-0.0020.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1650.0050.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1690.0080.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.340.010.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.674-0.0050.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.388-0.010.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was slightly lower at 0.6688% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down at 1.3828%. Yields move inversely to prices.
First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled 2.44 million last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 2.4 million claims.
The total, while still well above anything the nation had seen in pre-coronavirus America, represents the seventh straight week of a declining pace following the record peak of 6.9 million in late March.
Market focus is also attuned to the rate of new coronavirus infections. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were more than 100,000 newly reported coronavirus cases worldwide in the 24 hours leading up to its daily briefing on Wednesday evening, a record daily spike.
Of these, 45,251 were in the U.S., as states continue to gradually reopen their economies. Over 5 million cases have now been confirmed around the world.
Minutes published Wednesday from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed policymakers had deliberated over how to support the economy long-term, on a road to recovery they now expect to be longer and more difficult than initially presumed.
Flash Markit PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings for May are expected at 9:45 a.m. ET on Thursday, before April’s existing home sales data at 10 a.m. ET.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $80 billion of 4-week Treasury bills, $70 billion of 8-week bills and $12 billion of 10-year TIPS.

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields fall ahead of jobless claims data as global coronavirus cases spike (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices were higher Thursday morning as investors tried to gauge the likelihood of a sharp rebound ahead of a slew of economic data.

Treasurys



































































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1470.0230.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.157-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1630.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.330.000.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.666-0.0130.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.378-0.020.00
At around 4:55 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at 0.6688% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down at 1.3828%. Yields move inversely to prices.
However, yields increased on the shorter duration 2-year and 5-year notes.
New jobless claims figures for last week are expected at 8:30 a.m. ET. Data published last week showed that 36.5 million Americans had filed for unemployment since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis.
Analysts polled by Reuters are expecting 2.4 million new claims, down from 2.981 million the previous week.
Market focus is also attuned to the rate of new coronavirus infections. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were more than 100,000 newly reported coronavirus cases worldwide in the 24 hours leading up to its daily briefing on Wednesday evening, a record daily spike.
Of these, 45,251 were in the U.S., as states continue to gradually reopen their economies. Over 5 million cases have now been confirmed around the world.
Minutes published Wednesday from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed policymakers had deliberated over how to support the economy long-term, on a road to recovery they now expect to be longer and more difficult than initially presumed.

Flash Markit PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings for May are expected at 9:45 a.m. ET on Thursday, before April’s existing home sales data at 10 a.m. ET.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $80 billion of 4-week Treasury bills, $70 billion of 8-week bills and $12 billion of 10-year TIPS.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 20, May 2020

Treasury yields fall slightly after the first auction of 20-year bonds since 1986 (Afternoon Update)

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday after the first auction of 20-year bonds since the 1980s. 

Treasurys







































































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.124-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.157-0.0080.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.157-0.0160.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.326-0.0220.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.677-0.0340.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.401-0.0350.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 1 basis point to 0.693% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down slightly at 1.411%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The Treasury issued a 20-year bond for the first time in 34 years to fund a record level of borrowing the government will need to do this year to support the economy through the coronavirus pandemic. The $20 billion auction on Wednesday was met with decent demand with a yield of 1.220%.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said with the launch of a new 20-year bond, the department is aiming to stretch the duration while locking in ultra-low interest rates.
“It is my intention to borrow a lot of money in the short term to have the funding, but then to expand our financing in 10-, 20- and 30- year bonds,” Mnuchin said Tuesday during a Senate hearing. “What I’d like to do is to lock in a significant amount of very low interest rates so that the money we are borrowing can be paid back and dealt with over a long period of time.”
The Federal Open Market Committee released minutes Wednesday from its most recent meeting, which cited “extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks” due to the coronavirus pandemic.
“Participants commented that, in addition to weighing heavily on economic activity in the near term, the economic effects of the pandemic created an extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks to economic activity in the medium term,” the minutes said.
It has been a volatile week on Wall Street, with investors monitoring progress on a coronavirus vaccine and economic reopening efforts.
Market volatility is largely being driven by uncertainty over the likelihood of a coronavirus vaccineand concern over whether the reopening of state economies could open the door to a second wave of infections, as warned by public health experts.
Meanwhile, Republican Senators put the brakes on a $3 trillion support package passed last week by the House of Representatives, saying that they are in no hurry to work on additional fiscal support measures.

______________________________________________________

Treasury yields fall slightly ahead of the first auction of 20-year bonds since 1986 (Morning Update)

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields dipped slightly on Wednesday before the first auction of 20-year bonds since the 1980s. 

Treasurys









































































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.124-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1650.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1750.0020.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3540.0060.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7140.0030.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4390.0030.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 1 basis point to 0.693% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down slightly at 1.411%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The Treasury will issue a 20-year bond for the first time in 34 years to fund a record level of borrowing the government will need to do this year to support the economy through the coronavirus pandemic.The 20-year should be met with a good reception by Wall Street when the Treasury holds $20 billion auction at 1 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said with the launch of a new 20-year bond, the department is aiming to stretch the duration while locking in ultra-low interest rates.
“It is my intention to borrow a lot of money in the short term to have the funding, but then to expand our financing in 10-, 20- and 30- year bonds,” Mnuchin said Tuesday during a Senate hearing. “What I’d like to do is to lock in a significant amount of very low interest rates so that the money we are borrowing can be paid back and dealt with over a long period of time.”
It has been a volatile week on Wall Street, with investors monitoring progress on a coronavirus vaccine and economic reopening efforts.
Market volatility is largely being driven by uncertainty over the likelihood of a coronavirus vaccineand concern over whether the reopening of state economies could open the door to a second wave of infections, as warned by public health experts.
Meanwhile, Republican Senators put the brakes on a $3 trillion support package passed last week by the House of Representatives, saying that they are in no hurry to work on additional fiscal support measures.

There are no major economic data releases scheduled for Wednesday, but minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published at 2 p.m. ET and could give further insight into policymakers’ decision to hold interest rates near zero in late April.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 19, May 2020

Treasury yields are flat ahead of Powell testimony (Morning Update).

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields were flat Tuesday morning as investors await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s virtual hearing on the state of the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Treasurys











































































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1320.000.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1650.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.173-0.010.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.351-0.0260.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.711-0.0310.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.438-0.0180.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 0.723% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also flat at 1.456%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
In a written testimony released late on Monday, Powell describes the coronavirus pandemic as having caused “a level of pain that is hard to capture in words” and calls on Congress to do more to match the Fed’s historic stimulus measures. He adds that the central bank is committed to using its “full range of tools” to support the economy.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. home construction starts posted the worst monthly decline on record in April. Housing starts tumbled 30.17% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 891,000 units last month, a five year low, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.
Yields are stepping back from strong gains on Monday after biotech firm Moderna’s closely watched early-stage human trial for a coronavirus vaccine produced Covid-19 antibodies in all 45 participants, sending risk assets surging to six-week highs.
However, investors are also monitoring hopes of a global economic recovery. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva suggested Monday that the recovery will take much longer than initially expected.
Georgieva said the IMF will likely revise downward its forecast for a 3% contraction in GDP in 2020, with only a partial recovery expected in 2021 instead of the 5.8% rebound previously anticipated.
Auctions will be held for $31 billion of 52-week Treasury bills, $40 billion of 119-day bills and $65 billion of 42-day bills.

______________________________________________________

On Monday 18, May 2020

Treasury yields jump on coronavirus vaccine optimism (Morning Update)

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

Treasury yields popped on Monday as investors cheered news that an experimental coronavirus vaccine showed promising early signs.

Treasurys













































































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.122-0.0020.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1650.0180.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1790.030.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.3510.0430.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.7060.0660.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.4220.1020.00
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up 4 basis points at 0.681% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 7 basis points to 1.382%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Biotech firm Moderna’s closely watched early-stage human trial for a coronavirus vaccine produced Covid-19 antibodies in all 45 participants, the company announced Monday, sending the company’s shares surging more than 17%.
Investors also digested comments from Federal Reserve Jerome Powell that the U.S. economy could shrink by more than 30% in the second quarter as the full impact of nationwide lockdowns is realized. Still, Powell told “60 Minutes” in an interview aired Sunday night that the economy will likely rebound robustly and avoid a long-term depression.
Meanwhile, ties between Washington and Beijing continued to fray on Sunday. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned China not to interfere with the work of American journalists in Hong Kong, suggesting that it could affect the U.S. assessment of the special administrative region’s status.
China’s commerce ministry on Sunday voiced its opposition to the latest U.S. rules imposed on tech giant Huawei and said it could take any necessary action to safeguard Chinese firms’ rights and interests.

There is no major U.S. economic data due Monday.
Auctions will be held Monday for $63 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $54 billion of 26-week bills

______________________________________________________

On Friday 15, May 2020

Treasury yields fall after retail spending drops the most on record amid pandemic (Morning Update)

Yun Li, Ryan Browne

U.S. government debt yields moved lower Friday as investors digested more somber economic data.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to 0.595% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also declined 4 basis points to 1.256%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Consumer spending tumbled a record 16.4% in April as the backbone of the U.S. economy retrenched amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a government report Friday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the advanced retail sales number to fall 12.3% after March’s reported 8.3% dive already had set a record for data going back to 1992. The March numbers were revised to be not as bad as the 8.7% initially reported.
Nervous investors are keeping a close eye on the U.S. jobs market. U.S. jobless claims totaled 2.981 million last week, lifting the total number of unemployment insurance claims filed during the coronavirus crisis to nearly 36.5 million — by far the biggest loss of jobs over a similar period in U.S. history.
More than 4.4 million coronavirus cases have been confirmed globally, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The infection rate has been explosive in the United States, where there have been 1.4 million known cases.
Yields began their decline earlier this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned of “significant downside risks” from the coronavirus pandemic. The Fed chief’s gloomy outlook has investors debating whether the U.S. central bank could make another big policy move soon.

______________________________________________________

On Thursday 14, May 2020

Treasury yields slide after Fed comments, ahead of new US jobless claims data (Morning Update).

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices continued to climb Thursday morning ahead of the next round of unemployment claims figures, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to hammer the labor market.

Treasurys























































































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.119-0.0030.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.1550.000.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.1610.000.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.308-0.010.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.623-0.0280.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.302-0.0510.00
At around 2:50 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at 0.6202% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down at 1.3157%. Yields move inversely to prices.
New jobless claims numbers for last week are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with 33.5 million Americans having already filed for unemployment over the last seven weeks, sending the unemployment rate to a post-World War II high of 14.7%.
Yields began their decline on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned of “significant downside risks” from the coronavirus pandemic and suggested that the path ahead is “highly uncertain.”
His comments came as several states began to reopen their economies despite warnings from health officials, including the government’s top public health expert Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Data released Wednesday also showed U.S. producer prices dropped more sharply than expected in April, in another warning sign over the impact of pandemic-induced shutdowns on the economy.
Alongside jobless claims, import and export prices for April are due for publication at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
Auctions will be held Thursday for $80 billion of 4-week Treasury bills and $70 billion of 8-week bills.

______________________________________________________

On Wednesday 13, May 2020

Treasury yields fall as reopening fears and inflation data dent risk appetite (Morning Update)

Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt prices were higher Wednesday morning as investors weighed fears over the containment of the coronavirus pandemic against efforts to reopen the economy.

Treasurys

























































































































































































TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.129-0.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.157-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.163-0.010.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.324-0.0110.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.669-0.0230.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.356-0.0260.00
At around 4:55 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at 0.6622% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down at 1.3503%. Yields move inversely to prices.
White House medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday that a vaccine will be essential in stopping the coronavirus spread, but warned it will be awhile before a useful one is available. Fauci added the U.S. could face more “suffering and death” if states start to reopen too quickly.
Data on Tuesday showed consumer prices dropped by the most on record in April as the economy reeled from restrictions imposed to contain the coronavirus.
House Democrats on Tuesday saw a $3 trillion-plus coronavirus relief package with funding for states, businesses, food support and families flatly rejected by Republican counterparts.
Producer price inflation data for April is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Auctions will be held Wednesday for $35 billion of 105-day Treasury bills, $40 billion of 154-day bills and $22 billion of 30-year bonds.

CNBC’s Maggie Fitzgerald and Yun Li contributed to this report.

______________________________________________________

On Tuesday 12, May 2020

Treasury yields are flat after record drop in inflation data (Afternoon Update)

Yun Li, Elliot Smith

U.S. government debt yields held steady on Tuesday as investors digested weak inflation data and tracked measures to reopen the economy.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked lower by about 1 basis point to 0.711% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also slightly lower at 1.417%. Bond yields rise as prices fall.
Market optimism over efforts to reopen the economy was cooled Monday after the Chinese city of Wuhan, the original epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic, reported its first new cases since lifting lockdown measures.
States across the U.S. and countries around the world have begun easing Covid-19 lockdown measures implemented to contain the coronavirus pandemic, which has ravaged the global economy. Fears the U.S. could see a resurgance in new cases sent investors for the relative safety of U.S. debt.
Data on Tuesday showed consumer prices dropped by the most on record in April as the economy reeled from restrictions imposed to contain the coronavirus.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the CPI excluding food and energy prices slumped 0.4%, the biggest monthly decline in data back to 1957.
President Donald Trump also said on Monday that he opposed renegotiating the “Phase One” trade agreement signed between Washington and Beijing in January, after China’s state-run newspaper reported discontent among government advisors.
Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, markets had been attuned to protracted trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies.
The U.S. Treasury Department will auction $32 billion of 10-year notes later Tuesday.

Treasurys

TICKER COMPANYYIELD CHANGE %CHANGE 
US3MU.S. 3 Month Treasury0.1370.0050.00
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury0.157-0.0030.00
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury0.163-0.0180.00
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury0.323-0.0360.00
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury0.664-0.0620.00
US30YU.S. 30 Year Treasury1.37-0.0740.00



























































































































































































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