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Mar 30, 2020

US Coronavirus' Paycheck Calculator: This calculator tells you exactly how big your coronavirus stimulus check could be

Kathleen Elkins 

The $2 trillion stimulus bill in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was passed by the House on Friday and signed by President Donald Trump.
The plan includes a one-time direct payment to Americans, which Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said should arrive within three weeks. Individuals will receive up to $1,200, married couples will get up to $2,400 and $500 will be added for every child.
There are income restrictions: If you earn more than $75,000 as an individual or $150,000 as a couple, the total amount you’re eligible to receive starts to decrease. If you earn $99,000 or more as an individual or $198,000 as a couple, you aren’t eligible to receive a stimulus check.
To help you figure out how much money you’ll likely receive, Grow, a personal finance website published by CNBC and Acorns, created a calculator that factors in your filing status, annual income and the number of kids you have.

How much could you get in your stimulus check?
Your payment will be based on your most recent tax return. If you’ve filed a 2019 tax return, use that info; if not, use what you filed for 2018. You can find your adjusted gross income on line 8b of the 1040 federal tax form.

You will likely receive a ${{totalStimulus}} stimulus payment.
You will likely not receive a stimulus payment.
Source: 2020 CARES Act
kiersten schmidt/grow

The more you earn, the less money you’ll get. If you earn $75,000 or less as an individual, you’ll get the full $1,200. If you earn more than that, $5 will be subtracted for every additional $100 of income. (The checks phase out completely if you earn $99,000 or more.) The same sliding scale applies for couples earning between $150,000 and $198,000.
Jasmine Mah, who recently graduated with a master’s of science from the University of Leeds, UK, and mathematician Maciej Kowalski created a similar “Stimulus Payment Calculator.” To demonstrate how the payments are calculated, they provide an example of a married couple with two kids. Combined, the couple earns a total of $160,000. They don’t qualify for the full $2,400 because they earn $10,000 over the cap, but they’ll get a reduced check.
To calculate the amount they’ll get, the calculator divides the excess by $100 and multiples that amount by $5. Here’s the formula:
difference = (excess / $100) * $5 
Here’s what the formula would look like for the family of four:
($10,000 / $100) * $5 = $500
That means the family is eligible for $1,900 ($2,400 - $500). Plus, they’ll get another $1,000 — $500 per kid — for a total of $2,900.
When it comes to getting your money, you don’t need to apply for the checks. The money will automatically be transferred directly to the bank account you included in your most recent tax return. If the IRS doesn’t have your direct deposit information, you’ll get a check in the mail.
For more information, check out everything you need to know about the coronavirus stimulus checks.
Don’t miss: Many Americans will get $1,200 stimulus checks—here’s the best way to use it depending on your financial situation
Check out: The best credit cards of 2020 could earn you over $1,000 in 5 years

Market Insider | Biggest Moves Premarket: Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: J&J, Sanofi, Regeneron, La-Z-Boy, Apple & more

Peter Schacknow

Take a look at some of the biggest movers in the premarket:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – The company announced it has identified a lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate, and plans to begin phase 1 clinical trials by September at the latest. Its intention is to have the first batches of vaccine available for emergency use by January.
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) – The nation’s largest egg producer reported quarterly earnings of 28 cents per share, 10 cents a share above estimates, Revenue also beat forecasts and Cal-Maine said it is not seeing any supply chain disruptions as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
Sanofi (SNY), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) – The drugmakers expanded a clinical trial of their rheumatoid arthritis drug Kevzara as a coronavirus treatment. The trial now includes patients outside the U.S., after beginning in America last week.
United Technologies (UTX), Raytheon (RTN) – The defense contractors have received all regulatory approvals for their all-stock merger, and expect to close the deal prior to the open on Friday. United Technologies will be renamed Raytheon Technologies and trade under the ticker “RTX.” The Carrier and Otis businesses of United Technologies will become separate publicly traded companies, trading under ticker symbols “CARR” and “OTIS,” respectively.
La-Z-Boy (LZB) – La-Z-Boy furloughed 6,800 workers, cut the pay of senior management by 50%, and of salaried workers by 25%. The furniture maker also eliminated its June dividend and stopped its share repurchase program indefinitely.
Tegna (TGNA) – Tegna said it has held talks with two of four interested parties about their takeover proposals for the regional TV station operator. Those talks have stopped, however, due to the disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Jefferies (JEF) – Jefferies said its Chief Financial Officer Peg Broadbent has died from the coronavirus. The investment bank named Teri Gendron, the CFO of the company’s financial services arm, as Broadbent’s successor.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) – Gilead said it would stop taking individual emergency requests for its experimental coronavirus drug due to overwhelming demand.
Eldorado Resorts (ERI) – Eldorado’s deal to buy rival casino operator Caesars Entertainment (CZR) could be in danger, according to the New York Post. The paper said regulators have delayed their review of the $17.3 billion deal due to the virus outbreak, while the casino industry takes a hard hit from ongoing closures.
Novartis (NVS) – Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan told a Swiss newspaper that its malaria drug hydroxychloroquine is the drugmaker’s biggest hope against COVID-19.
Apple (AAPL) – Apple could see an 18% year-over-year drop in iPhone orders during the current quarter, according to a Reuters report.
Papa John’s (PZZA) – Investor advisory firm ISS said retired basketball superstar Shaquille O’Neal should not be re-elected to the board of the pizza chain, according to a Bloomberg report. ISS said O’Neal skipped too many board meetings and that shareholders should vote against his re-election at the April 23 annual meeting.
Procter & Gamble (PG), Kimberly-Clark (KMB) – Jefferies upgraded both consumer products makers to “buy” from “hold,” noting that both are benefiting from the “pantry-loading” taking place due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Stock Market Live Updates: Futures volatile, Dow's best week since 1938, Trump extends guidelines

Pippa Stevens, Jesse Pound, Yun Li

GP: President Donald Trump speaks during a Coronavirus Task Force press briefing
US President Donald Trump speaks during a Coronavirus Task Force press briefing in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, on March 29, 2020.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images

7:48 am: The US economy at a standstill, satellite imagery shows

The coronavirus pandemic has brought U.S. business and consumer activity to a halt, with every sector feeling the effects of most of the country’s workforce staying home. With few official measures available to gauge the scope of the economic damage, satellite imagery and alternative data show the widespread effects of the current nationwide isolation recommendations. The U.S. situation is stark: Airplanes are parked on unused runways, the busiest highways are empty during rush hour, resorts have become ghost towns, ports are seeing sharp drops in shipping activity and more. - Sheetz

7:46 am: Goldman says the market won’t bottom until these three things happen

For investors wondering if last week’s big bounce signaled a bottom, Goldman Sachs warned that more selling is ahead and three things need to occur before the market hits a turning point. “A three-part checklist for a sustained rally: (1)Slowing viral spread; (2) Evidence that fiscal and monetary policy stimulus is working; and (3) A bottoming in investor positioning and flows,” said David Kostin, Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist.
Goldman said sharp bounces like last week’s are common during bear markets. During the financial crisis, the S&P 500 experienced six bounces of 9% or more between September and December 2008, with some rallies as large as 19%. However, the actual market bottom did not occur until March 2009, Kostin said. – Li

7:43 am: Distancing guidelines extended through April

President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the social distancing guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have been extended until April 30. Trump said his previous statements about the country lifting the Guidelines on Easter, which is April 12, were an “aspiration.” White House health advisor Anthony Fauci said Sunday that the country could see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from the pandemic. — Pound

7:24 am: Dow tries to extend gains after best week since 1938

U.S. stock index futures were little changed ahead of Monday’s open as markets look to extend last week’s strength. While stocks moved lower on Friday, the major averages still managed to post gains for the week — and then some. It was the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s best week since 1938, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite registered their largest weekly jump since 2009.
Investors cheered the $2 trillion stimulus package aimed at combating the coronavirus-induced economic slowdown, as well as actions from the Federal Reserve, which include an open-ended asset-purchase program.
But volatility remains the name of the game. Some Street strategists say the bottom is in, while others believe stocks are in for more pain ahead as the worldwide economic impacts of the pandemic continue to reverberate. The United States now has the greatest number of coronavirus cases worldwide, and on Sunday night President Donald Trump said he was extending the national social distancing guidelines to April 30. He had previously said he hoped the economy would “open” back up by Easter Sunday on April 12.
On Monday, the Dow was set to open 25 points lower, while stock futures pointed to small gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Futures were volatile once again in overnight trading. - Stevens

Analysis | The Cybersecurity 202: Cybersecurity experts slam child protection bill that risks rolling back encryption

By Joseph Marks

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), a sponsor of the EARN IT Act. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)
Congress should abandon a new bill that could be used to roll back encryption as part of an effort to combat the spread of online child pornography, according to an overwhelming majority of cybersecurity experts surveyed by The Cybersecurity 202.
About 85 percent of our standing panel of experts called the bill, dubbed the EARN IT Act, a bad idea.
“The EARN IT Act would cause great harm to the open Internet and put everyday Americans at greater risk creating problems rather than offering a solution,” said Heather West, head of policy for the Americas at the nonprofit Internet company Mozilla. 
The Cybersecurity 202 Network, first launched in 2018, comprises more than 100 cybersecurity experts who participate in our ongoing informal surveys. The panel includes current and former officials from the U.S. government, private sector and the security research community. (You can see the full list here.)

The EARN IT Act would strip tech companies of their prized liability protections for what users share on their platforms, unless they follow rules designed by a new government task force — which experts fear would require companies to give law enforcement special access to encrypted communications.
Network experts warned that such a move would make hundreds of millions of people more vulnerable to hacking — and probably wouldn’t even accomplish its main goal of preventing online child exploitation.
“The EARN IT bill not only will fail at its objectives, but will also destroy the protection encryption provides to everyday citizens’ medical, financial and personal data,” said Steve Grobman, chief technology officer of the cybersecurity firm McAfee.
The bill's sponsors, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) frequently point out that it doesn’t include the word “encryption” and there’s no guarantee the task force it envisions would focus on the protection. The bill, introduced earlier this month, appeared to be gaining steam on Capitol Hill before the urgent need to respond to the coronavirus pandemic effectively forced all other congressional work into the background.
Experts charged, however, that the bill was designed so that weakening encryption would be the inevitable result. 
"This bill… is clearly a ‘backdoor to a backdoor’ to encryption,” said Riana Pfefferkorn, associate director of surveillance and cybersecurity at Stanford University’s Center for Internet and Society.
Whitney Merrill, a former Federal Trade Commission attorney, called it “encryption backdoor legislation in disguise” and warned that “while there's no mention of ‘encryption’ in the bill, there is no possible way to do what the bill requires without undermining end-to-end encryption,” a technical term for encrypted communications that can’t be viewed even by the company providing the messaging service.
“The bill is targeted at child exploitation only as a means of achieving the broader goal of government surveillance generally,” said Paul Rosenzweig, a top Department of Homeland Security official during the George W. Bush administration who now runs Red Branch Consulting.
Other experts lashed out at the idea of the U.S. attorney general leading the proposed task force. Attorney General William Barr has been among the most outspoken critics of encryption when it impedes law enforcement investigations, they noted.
“Making it easier to combat child exploitation is the right idea," said Scott Montgomery, vice president and chief technical strategist at McAfee. "However, giving Attorney General Barr (or any single AG) oversight of a committee weighing a nebulous ‘best practices' listis a singularly terrible idea.”
The fact the bill puts Barr at the head of the task force “says all you need to know” about how encryption will fare if it’s passed, said Mark Weatherford, a former DHS cybersecurity official.
“While you can’t argue that the issue of online child sexual exploitation should be addressed through legislation, it’s politically underhanded to use this sensitive public safety issue as subterfuge to advance an issue they’ve been otherwise unsuccessful in achieving,” said Weatherford, who’s now a global information security strategist at Booking Holdings.
Some experts also warned the bill could result in much broader access to encrypted communications for law enforcement even when child pornography is not the main concern.
“It pushes toward an Internet where the law require[s] every message sent to be read by government-approved scanning software,” said Cindy Cohn, executive director of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a digital rights advocacy group.
Joe Hall, senior vice president for a strong Internet at the Internet Society, a global nonprofit group, called the bill “a bipartisan buzz-saw steamroller through digital rights and free speech.”
And if the government gains special access to encrypted communications with a warrant, there’s no guarantee hackers won’t steal that access and use it to swipe users' personal information, warned Jake Williams, a former National Security Agency hacker and founder of the cybersecurity company Rendition Infosec.
“The government has shown time and time again that they can't protect classified information from access (and even release) by unauthorized parties,” he said, pointing to two prominent leaks of secret hacking tools from the NSA and CIA that proved devastating for the agencies.
“To think the government can (or will) do any better with encryption backdoors given this context is laughable,” he said.
“Experts agree that backdoors could be exploited by bad actors and that no backdoor could guarantee only law-abiding officials have access,” said Jennifer Granick, surveillance and cybersecurity counsel with the American Civil Liberties Union’s Speech, Privacy, and Technology Project.
And even if the bill does result in weaker encryption in products from U.S. companies, criminals could still use products with stronger encryption produced in the European Union or elsewhere, some experts warned.
“Put simply, the EARN IT bill would mandate faulty encryption for Americans, while strong encryption would still be easily available to anyone intelligent enough to download their application from, for example, an E.U. server,” said Sascha Meinrath, a Penn State professor and founding director of X-Lab, a think tank focusing on the intersection of technologies and public policy.
That would also make it more difficult for U.S. tech companies to compete overseas, warned Katie Moussouris, founder and CEO of Luta Security.
“American tech with such mandated encryption backdoors will end up on other countries’ banned software lists, regarded much like Huawei is in the U.S.,” she said, referring to the Chinese telecom firm that officials have accused of aiding Chinese spying and banned from many U.S. networks.
A 15 percent minority of Network experts said the EARN IT bill was a good idea. 
Former NSA general counsel Stewart Baker argued that limiting encryption might be necessary to prevent the spread of child pornography and other criminal activity.
“If encryption is implemented in a way that recklessly and predictably fosters child abuse, why would we give the designer an immunity for the harm it has caused?” he asked. “Would we give an immunity to an electric scooter company whose product design recklessly burned down a few houses just because we thought the scooters were cool and had a positive environmental impact?”
Two experts — John Pescatore, director of emerging security trends at the SANS Institute cybersecurity training organization and Kiersten Todt, president and managing partner of Liberty Group Ventures — argued the bill was necessary so government could force tech companies to take more responsibility for criminal activity on their platforms. But they both said it should not be used to undermine encryption.
“Leaving [Internet service providers] and websites completely free of any responsibility for user content has resulted in vast swarms of malware, ransomware, phishing sites, deep fakes, etc.,” Pescatore said. “The situation today is as if on the Internet [it is] fine to shout ‘Fire!!!’ in a crowded theater, while we know that is NOT OK in the real world!”
Todt argued that tech firms can take numerous reasonable steps to combat the spread of child pornography without weakening encryption. WhatsApp, for example, says it removes about 250,000 accounts each month that it suspects are sharing explicit photos of children based on technical data — even though it can't see the photos themselves.
“The definition of reasonable will be critical to the effectiveness and success of this bill — and this bill should not be an excuse for killing end-to-end encryption,” she said.
Steve Weber, founder and director of the Center for Long Term Cybersecurity at the University of California at Berkeley, argued that encryption protections need to be addressed in the context of much broader concerns about technology and safety.
“Encryption is a critical issue, but allowing it to overshadow everything else is not good politics because it will make the technology community seem dangerously out of touch,” he said.


— More responses to The Cybersecurity 202 Network survey question on whether the EARN IT Act is a good idea:
  • NO: “There are better ways to combat child exploitation. The committee should focus on legislative reforms that hold companies accountable for not identifying and blocking child traffickers from their platforms based on currently available signals. That can be done without weakening privacy and security measures.” — Chris Finan, CEO and co-founder of Manifold Technology and a former top White House cybersecurity official during the Obama administration
  • NO: “High-tech security measures shouldn't be designed by political appointees We need to solve child exploitation online, and while I'm sure this bill has the right intent, it's the wrong approach.” — David Brumley, CEO of the cybersecurity company ForAllSecure and a professor at Carnegie Mellon University
  • NO: “Any legislated structure that carries the abilities to strip American citizens of their right to privacy is a mistake and a step towards the end of democracy.” — Tony Cole, chief technology officer at Attivo Networks
  • NO: “Preventing child exploitation is important, but attacking encryption is not the way to do that.” — Harri Hursti, an election security expert and founding partner of Nordic Innovation Labs
  • NO: “Protecting children from exploitation has long been a top priority for [the Internet Association] and its members, but federal policy regarding something as critical as encryption should be debated in the open with all relevant stakeholders.” — Jon Berroya, senior vice president and general counsel at the Internet Association trade group, which includes Google, Facebook and Microsoft among its members
  • NO: “I share concerns about the impact of harmful online content on the nation’s most vulnerable people, including our children. The EARN IT Act will not help to deter or prevent any of this criminal activity.” — Christian Dawson, executive director of i2Coalition, an industry group that includes Google, Amazon and Cloudflare among its members

A man walks past a banner showing Saudi King Salman, right, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman outside a mall in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia, on March 7. (Amr Nabil/AP)
PINGED:  Saudi Arabia appears to be tracking its citizens inside the United States by exploiting vulnerabilities in a decades-old global messaging system that allows cellular customers to move from network to network while traveling, Stephanie Kirchgaessner at the Guardian reports. Privacy advocates say the apparent surveillance campaign highlights an urgent need for U.S. regulators to step in and fix vulnerabilities with the system that made the spying possible.
Saudi telecommunications companies requested location data on Saudi citizens in the United States millions of times over a four-month period starting in November, according to documents a whistleblower shared with the Guardian. The large volume of requests indicates a coordinated surveillance effort, multiple security experts told Stephanie. The Saudi government has a history of hacking its own citizens, particularly dissidents and journalists.
The system the Saudi companies used, known as SS7, is meant to allow foreign providers to track roaming charges, but can be easily misused. DHS has received reports that malicious actors are exploiting the system, the agency told the office of Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) in a 2018 letter.
T-Mobile and Verizon did not comment on requests from the Guardian asking whether they allowed SS7 requests from foreign providers that could be used for tracking locations. AT&T said it has “security controls to block location-tracking messages from roaming partners."

President Trump and Vice President Pence. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)
PATCHED: Federal, state and local officials are partnering with tech and marketing companies in the hopes they can harness cellphone location data to track the spread of the coronavirus in the United States, the Wall Street Journal's Byron Tau reports. Privacy experts, however, say the efforts could pose serious risks without the right safeguards.
Under a White House proposal, the officials are working with advertisers to pull widely available anonymized geolocation data into a national portal. It's a contrast with Europe and Asia, where government officials have urged telecommunications companies to share data with them directly.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House have partnered with a number of tech companies on the project, while some state and local governments have turned to data marketing companies such as Foursquare Labs.
Data marketing is largely unregulated on the federal level and even anonymized data could be tied to individuals, privacy experts caution. Privacy activist Wolfie Christl called for “strong legal safeguards” to minimize risk.

Few motorists drive on Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington on March 25. Officials have urged residents to stay home to contain the spread of the coronavirus. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP)
PWNED: House lawmakers failed to renew controversial FBI surveillance tools before leaving town on Friday, leaving the program paused for at least several more weeks, the Wall Street Journal's Dustin Volz reports. Efforts to renew the post-9/11 authorities got mired down as some lawmakers urged broader privacy protections and the bill effectively took a back seat as Congress pivoted to dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.
The Senate passed a short-term extension of the powers before the program expired.
Now, the Justice Department is urging the House to pass the same extension “as soon as possible to avoid any further gap in our national security capabilities,” Justice Department spokeswoman Kerri Kupec told Dustin.


Cybersecurity news from the public sector:

The Kremlin-backed Internet Research Agency, which interfered in the 2016 election, is using different methods to hide itself better.
The New York Times

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) is urging Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to take steps to limit the spread of online Chinese misinformation around the coronavirus pandemic.
The Hill

Officials say an updated rule for implementing the program will be open for comment later this spring.


Cybersecurity news from the private sector:

While hackers all over the world rely on emails and text messages to breach networks, one infamous criminal group appears to be turning to the mailman to deliver their malicious code.

Kitboga has built a following by trolling telemarketers. Covid-19 opportunists have given him a whole new crop of targets.

Exclusive: TechCrunch obtained a copy of the database, which was breached in October 2019.


Cybersecurity news from abroad:

Many European telecommunications companies are sharing mobile location data with governments to follow people’s movements after coronavirus lockdowns, focusing on compliance with privacy rules by anonymizing the data.
Wall Street Journal

A new spate of iOS and Android mobile malware attacks has been targeting Hong Kong residents, according to Kaspersky and Trend Micro.

Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Deaths Could Exceed 200,000; Social Curbs Extended

24-30 minutos - Source: NYT

Americans were advised to avoid nonessential travel and gatherings of more than 10 people until at least April 30. Deaths nationwide approached 2,500, with more than 1,000 in New York. Spain asked residents to go into “hibernation” as the death toll climbed.
Right Now
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw over 100,000 deaths,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the United States’ leading infectious disease expert, said.
Credit...Brittany Greeson for The New York Times
Faced with the grim prospect that 200,000 Americans could die even with aggressive action to slow the spread of the coronavirus, President Trump extended the guidelines on avoiding nonessential travel, staying away from work, visiting bars and restaurants and gathering in groups of more than 10 for at least another month.
“We can expect that by June 1, we will be well on our way to recovery,” Mr. Trump said on Sunday evening. “We think by June 1. A lot of great things will be happening.”
But the virus has already dashed Mr. Trump’s earlier rosy predictions, and as Americans entered their third week living in a work-from-home world, officials warned that the deepening crisis in New York was weeks from peaking.
“Thousands of people will pass away,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo warned.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw over 100,000 deaths,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the United States’ leading infectious disease expert, said on Monday.
The continuing agony in Italy and Spain showed that the peak of the outbreak in the United States could be prolonged and, in any case, would by no means mark the end of the fight.
In Spain, roughly 35 people died every hour over the weekend as the death toll passed 7,000.
With residents already under orders not to leave their homes unless absolutely necessary, Madrid called on Monday for even tighter enforcement, with officials saying they wanted the country to enter a period of “hibernation.”
Italy, with nearly 11,000 deaths, saw some hopeful signs as the mortality rate dropped for a third day in a row — from 969 to 889 to 756 — and new patients requiring critical care dropped to 50, from 124.
Encouraging though the numbers were, officials cautioned that it would be some time before restrictions could be eased without risking widespread reinfection.
Elsewhere, most nations were tightening existing restrictions or adding new ones.
Russia closed border crossings on Monday and placed Moscow on lockdown.
With Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain in isolation after testing positive for the virus, officials there warned people to expect another six months of hardship, though the restrictions could be eased as conditions improve.
Even Mr. Trump, who for weeks sought to downplay the seriousness of the crisis, struck a decidedly more somber note over the weekend. He also revealed that a personal friend was sick.
“He’s a little older and he’s heavy,” Mr. Trump said. “But he’s a tough person, and we went to the hospital and a day later he’s in a coma.”
“The speed and the viciousness, especially if it gets the right person, it is horrible,” Mr. Trump added.

Two of the top doctors advising the White House on the coronavirus pandemic went together to the Oval Office with some sobering data to present to President Trump: Even with the aggressive measures in place in to slow the spread of the virus, as many as 200,000 Americans could die during the outbreak.
“We showed him the data and he got it right away,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Monday morning during an appearance on CNN.
Mr. Trump had expressed a hope to get the country back to normal by Easter, but the grim forecast made it clear that would be impossible.
“He shook his head,” Dr. Fauci recalled, “and said, ‘I guess we’ve got to do it.’”
Mr. Fauci said that the explosive rate of growth in New York, New Orleans and possibly now Detroit demonstrated the urgency of the moment.
“We felt strongly that it would have been the wrong decision to pull back,” he said. “We argued strongly with the president that he not withdraw those guidelines."
Mr. Fauci said he was joined in the meeting by Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the lead coordinator of the White House’s coronavirus task force.
She told reporters on Sunday that even with precautions and restrictions, the government’s model estimated “between 80,000 and 160,000, maybe even potentially 200,000 people, succumbing” to Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
She added that without any precautionary measures, the same models projected that 1.6 million to 2.2 million Americans could die from complications of the virus.
“Some of them predicted half of the United States would get infected,” she said.
Dr. Birx acknowledged that it was a huge sacrifice for Americans to stay home another month, but she said the measures had “potential to save hundreds of thousands of American lives.”

Even as hospitals across New York City become flooded with coronavirus cases, some patients are being left behind in their homes because the health care system cannot handle them all, according to dozens of interviews with paramedics, New York Fire Department officials and union representatives, as well as city data.
In a matter of days, the city’s 911 system has been overwhelmed by calls for medical distress apparently related to the virus. Typically, the system sees about 4,000 Emergency Medical Services calls a day.
Last Thursday, dispatchers took more than 7,000 calls — a volume not seen since the Sept. 11 attacks. The record for the number of calls in a day was broken three times in the last week.
If the rate of growth in cases in the New York area continues, it will suffer a more severe outbreak than those experienced in Wuhan, China, or the Lombardy region of Italy.
Because of the volume, emergency medical workers are making life-or-death decisions about who is sick enough to take to crowded emergency rooms and who appears well enough to leave behind. They are assessing on scene which patients should receive time-consuming measures like CPR and intubation, and which patients are too far gone to save.
And, they are doing it, in most cases they say, without appropriate equipment to protect themselves from infection.
Phil Suarez, a paramedic, was dispatched to two homes in Manhattan’s Washington Heights neighborhood, where entire families in cramped apartments, appeared to be stricken with the virus.
“I’m terrified,” said Mr. Suarez, who has been a paramedic in New York City for 26 years and had assisted in rescue efforts during the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks and later served in the Iraq war. “I honestly don’t know if I’m going to survive. I’m terrified of what I’ve already possibly brought home.”

Struggling to give its beleaguered medical workers a fighting chance to combat a virus that has torn through their own ranks in recent weeks, Spanish officials said on Monday that they would impose even more rigorous restrictions on residents’ movements, calling for a national period of “hibernation.”
The officials compared the tighter restrictions to those imposed in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the virus was first detected last year. The measures there were perhaps the most draconian attempted anywhere in the world so far.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of Spain said at the weekend that the tighter lockdown was needed to avoid the collapse of saturated hospitals in Madrid and a few other regions of the country.
Sign up to receive an email when we publish a new story about the coronavirus outbreak.
“The most important thing is to slow down the number of people in hospitals, in the intensive care units,” he said. “I’m thinking especially of Madrid, where they are under a lot of pressure.”
The new restrictions — allowing only “essential workers” to leave their homes — will last until at least April 9 and come on top of the lockdown that was imposed on March 14.
Spain reported more than 812 new deaths on Monday, bringing the country’s death toll to nearly 7,400.
While Spanish hospitals were on the edge of collapse, Italian officials hoped that the burden on medical facilities might be starting to ease.
Luca Richeldi, a clinical pneumologist at the Gemelli hospital in Rome and a member of the government’s scientific advisory committee, said that the number of deaths had dropped every day over the weekend and that the number of new patients needing critical care had also gone down to 50, from 124.
“With our behavior, we save lives,” he said.
The April 3 deadline of the national lockdown would certainly be extended, Italian government officials said.
The health minister, Roberto Speranza, said that the government measures “will certainly be prolonged, and we will require a sacrifice that I don’t think will be too short.”
In a televised interview Sunday night, he said that the crisis was far from over and that decisions would be made with the input of the government’s scientific advisory board, which was meeting on Monday.
“There are some encouraging signals,” especially from the worst hit areas, Mr. Speranza said. “But it is not enough.” Opening up too soon, he added, could “burn everything we’ve obtained until now.”

The Seattle area, home of the first known coronavirus case in the United States and the place where the virus claimed 37 of its first 50 victims, is now seeing evidence that harsh containment strategies, imposed in the earliest days of the outbreak, are beginning to pay off — at least for now.
Deaths are not rising as fast as they are in other states. Significant declines in street traffic show that people are staying home. Hospitals have so far not been overwhelmed. And preliminary statistical models provided to public officials in Washington State suggest that the spread of the virus has slowed in the Seattle area in recent days.
While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4.
The researchers who are preparing the latest projections, led by the Institute for Disease Modeling, a private research group in Bellevue, Wash., have been watching a variety of data points since the onset of the outbreak. They include tens of thousands of coronavirus test results, deaths and mobility information to estimate the rate at which coronavirus patients are spreading the disease to others.
The progress is precarious, and the data, which was still being analyzed and has yet to be published, is uncertain. But the findings offer a measure of hope that the emergency measures that have disrupted life in much of the nation can be effective in slowing the spread of the disease.
“We made a huge impact — we slowed the transmission,” Seattle’s mayor, Jenny Durkan, said in an interview. She cautioned that any lifting of restrictions would bring a quick rise in new cases, and that she expected distancing requirements to continue in some form for months.
“There is evidence that doing the aggressive measures can have a benefit,” Gov. Jay Inslee said in an interview, discussing the overall numbers he is seeing.
But the governor said that the state was far from turning a corner. While there are indications of improvement, he said, he has also seen numbers in the last few days that still have him worried, including a rise in positive test results statewide and new cases in rural areas.

Chinese companies have kicked into overdrive to supply masks, respirators, testing kits and other protective gear to tackle the fast-moving global pandemic. With its own outbreak seemingly under control, it has looked to sell or donate gear to improve its image on the global stage.
But some faulty products are showing up in the supply chain, prompting governments in the Netherlands, Turkey and the Philippines to complain.
A commercial aircraft carrying gloves, masks, gowns and other medical supplies from Shanghai touched down at Kennedy International Airport in New York on Sunday, the first of 22 scheduled flights that White House officials say will funnel much-needed goods to the United States by early April.
The plane carried 130,000 N95 masks, nearly 1.8 million surgical masks and gowns, 10 million gloves and more than 70,000 thermometers, said Lizzie Litzow, a spokeswoman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The quality of the gear that was received, however, is unknown.
Faulty protective equipment could endanger the lives of health care workers and malfunctioning tests could prevent sick people from getting essential treatment.
The Netherlands on Saturday recalled hundreds of thousands of face masks from China, after it was revealed that they did not meet standards set by the Dutch health authorities. Spanish officials said last week that hundreds of thousands of testing kits delivered by a Chinese company had only a 30 percent accuracy rate. The Chinese Embassy later said that the company was not on its official list of certified suppliers.
In the Czech Republic, for example, a local newspaper cited medical workers who had complained that as many as 80 percent of the rapid coronavirus tests that the government ordered from China did not work properly.
In the Philippines, a Department of Health official said an early first batch of tests sent from China were defective but later walked back his comments after the Chinese Embassy denied the test kits were part of a donation to the Philippines and said its donations had been assessed by the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine.
The Turkish health authorities have also spoken publicly about their concern about testing kits from China without offering details.

Officials in India denied on Monday that an abrupt nationwide lockdown that has thrown the country of 1.3 billion people into chaos would last more than three weeks.
The lockdown, announced last Tuesday by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was imposed with just four hours notice and followed reports that India may be in the early stages of community transmission. With the suspension of India’s train and bus services, hundreds of thousands of migrant workers found themselves trapped in cities like New Delhi without food or money.
Rajiv Gauba, the cabinet secretary, told reporters that he was “surprised” to read reports suggesting that the severest restrictions would remain in place beyond April 15.
“There is no such plan,” he told Asian News International, a local news outlet.
In what has been described as the largest migration in recent history, huge masses of people began long journeys by foot to their home villages, balancing bags on their heads and children on their shoulders. As of Sunday, just one of India’s 36 states and territories had made arrangements to bring migrants home.
Since the lockdown was announced, thousands of people have been seen waiting at bus stops on the outskirts of New Delhi, packed together without protective gear, before being turned away for lack of space.
Many are panicking about the spread of the virus. In one northern Indian city, migrants were sprayed down with a chemical solution on the roadside by people in hazmat suits, according to local reporters.

Discussion in China is swirling about the true extent of the coronavirus outbreak in the country and the risk of asymptomatic infections.
Caixin, an influential Chinese newsmagazine that has aggressively reported on the coronavirus pandemic, published a commentary that urged the government to disclose the number of asymptomatic infections in the country, a figure that has been kept secret.
In China’s official count of confirmed coronavirus cases, people who test positive but show no symptoms are excluded; they are added to the tally only if they start to feel sick.
The magazine’s commentary came after confirmation of a case on Sunday in Henan Province, who apparently was infected by a person who did not show symptoms and was not counted in the official tally released to the public.
The Caixin commentary said revealing the scale and spread of asymptomatic cases was important for research and informing the public of continuing possible risks.
China has reported several days with no new cases outside those brought in from overseas. The case reported in Henan on Sunday suggests that the virus continues to spread among people who might not be included in the public tally.
Observers have also scrutinized the country’s death toll. Caixin reported last week that thousands of urns were sent to funeral homes in Wuhan, the center of the outbreak, in recent days, raising questions about whether the death toll in the city could be higher than the official figure of 2,547.

As countries around the world enact lockdowns in an attempt to curb the pandemic, some leaders have scoffed at containment efforts.
In Belarus, the authoritarian President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko called the coronavirus “nothing else but a psychosis” and has joked that a shot or two of vodka a day will poison the virus, advice rejected by medical experts.
Mr. Lukashenko has even suggested that farm work in a tractor, eating breakfast at a particular time or sitting in a sauna can help prevent infection.
While all of Europe and many other parts of the world have suspended professional soccer and other sports leagues, Belarus’s premier league has continued to play, a reflection of the country’s lax coronavirus response.
President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil has also argued that concerns over the pandemic are overblown.
He visited shopkeepers outside of Brasília, the capital, on Sunday and argued that people must continue their jobs to survive, even while older people should stay home.
“I advocate that you work, that everyone works,” he said, the newspaper Folha de São Paulo reported.
He repeated his argument that the harm to the economy from efforts to curb its spread can be worse than the pandemic itself.
“Sometimes, too much medicine becomes poison,” he added.
Mr. Bolsonaro has called the virus a simple cold and questioned the death toll in São Paulo, the country’s largest city. Brazil has recorded 4,256 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 136 deaths as of Sunday.
Mr. Lukashenko has also questioned the harm of coronavirus response efforts, saying he endorsed President Trump’s comments that the cure to the pandemic cannot be worse than the disease itself.
“I really like his recent statements,” Mr. Lukashenko said of Mr. Trump on Friday, according to the state media. “He said that unemployment can claim more lives than coronavirus itself unless they reopen businesses and get Americans back to work. Now you have understood why I did not authorize closures of businesses.”
Mr. Trump has since pulled back from his suggestion that the United States should ease restrictions by Easter and has extended social distancing guidelines through the end of April.
Reporting was contributed by Elisabetta Povoledo, Raphael Minder, Elian Peltier, Ali Watkins, Marc Santora, Michael D. Shear, Thomas Fuller, Megan Specia, Austin Ramzy, Neil Vigdor, Kate Taylor, Vivian Yee, Mike Baker, Rick Rojas, Vanessa Swales, Michael Levenson, Aimee Ortiz, Suhasini Raj and Kai Schultz.
  • Updated March 24, 2020
    • How does coronavirus spread?

      It seems to spread very easily from person to person, especially in homes, hospitals and other confined spaces. The pathogen can be carried on tiny respiratory droplets that fall as they are coughed or sneezed out. It may also be transmitted when we touch a contaminated surface and then touch our face.
    • What makes this outbreak so different?

      Unlike the flu, there is no known treatment or vaccine, and little is known about this particular virus so far. It seems to be more lethal than the flu, but the numbers are still uncertain. And it hits the elderly and those with underlying conditions — not just those with respiratory diseases — particularly hard.
    • What should I do if I feel sick?

      If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
    • What if somebody in my family gets sick?

      If the family member doesn’t need hospitalization and can be cared for at home, you should help him or her with basic needs and monitor the symptoms, while also keeping as much distance as possible, according to guidelines issued by the C.D.C. If there’s space, the sick family member should stay in a separate room and use a separate bathroom. If masks are available, both the sick person and the caregiver should wear them when the caregiver enters the room. Make sure not to share any dishes or other household items and to regularly clean surfaces like counters, doorknobs, toilets and tables. Don’t forget to wash your hands frequently.
    • Should I wear a mask?

      Experts are divided on how much protection a regular surgical mask, or even a scarf, can provide for people who aren’t yet sick. The W.H.O. and C.D.C. say that unless you’re already sick, or caring for someone who is, wearing a face mask isn’t necessary. And stockpiling high-grade N95 masks will make it harder for nurses and other workers to access the resources they need. But researchers are also finding that there are more cases of asymptomatic transmission than were known early on in the pandemic. And a few experts say that masks could offer some protection in crowded places where it is not possible to stay 6 feet away from other people. Masks don’t replace hand-washing and social distancing.
    • Should I stock up on groceries?

      Plan two weeks of meals if possible. But people should not hoard food or supplies. Despite the empty shelves, the supply chain remains strong. And remember to wipe the handle of the grocery cart with a disinfecting wipe and wash your hands as soon as you get home.
    • Should I pull my money from the markets?

      That’s not a good idea. Even if you’re retired, having a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds so that your money keeps up with inflation, or even grows, makes sense. But retirees may want to think about having enough cash set aside for a year’s worth of living expenses and big payments needed over the next five years.