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Experts have welcomed positive data on potential treatments and progress on testing, but warn that vaccine timelines look ambitious and argue more thought is needed on manufacturing.
Roche CEO Severin Schwan told CNBC on April 22 that, “Unlike with molecular tests which directly measure the virus, with antibody tests, the scaling is much easier from a technical point of view plus there is an enormous base of installed instruments and platforms out there.”
On April 30, the European Medicines Agency announced a “rolling” review of remdesivir, which enables the agency to assess data on the drug as it becomes available, speeding up the evaluation process and potentially paving the way for faster approval.
Separately, initial data on Kevzara, a rheumatoid arthritis drug co-developed by Regeneron and Sanofi seen as a potential treatment, delivered mixed results. It showed promise for treating the sickest patients but no benefit for less severe cases. As a result, the companies decided to stop testing the drug with those patients and are instead proceeding with a larger trial only in critical patients. Results are due in June.
JPMorgan’s U.S. biotechnology equity research team commented on Kevzara in a published note on Friday: “Although this might come as a relative disappointment to some — especially given the heightened sensitivities around Covid-19 — we continue to believe Regeneron may have a better shot treating this pandemic with its antibody cocktail.”
Moderna announced a 10-year manufacturing agreement with Lonza that could result in the production of 1 billion doses per year. Goldman Sachs equity research said in a research note published May 1 that “based on Moderna’s vaccine portfolio data to date, we remain optimistic into the initial Covid-19 vaccine results, and view the Lonza collaboration as further supporting Moderna’s continued efforts to produce a Covid-19 vaccine to meet global demand.” The company says a phase three trial could begin as soon as the fall of 2020.
AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford announced last week an agreement on the global development and distribution of the university’s potential vaccine. The plan is to produce up to 100 million doses by the end of the year. The Oxford team is aiming to have the vaccine available by September.
Pascal Soriot, the chief executive officer of AstraZeneca, said in a press release: “This collaboration brings together the University of Oxford’s world-class expertise in vaccinology and AstraZeneca’s global development, manufacturing and distribution capabilities.”
Prior to that announcement, India’s Serum Institute, the world’s biggest vaccine manufacturer, said it plans to produce up to 60 million doses of the potential vaccine by the end of the year.
The UBS health-care equity research team hosted a client call with an American infectious disease epidemiologist last week and said in a published note that the expert thinks highly of the scientific group at Oxford University. However, the expert was doubtful on the proposed timeline, considering the amount of data and follow-up time required to establish safety and efficacy of a vaccine.
Furthermore, the expert warned that even if a vaccine demonstrates safety and efficacy, there are significant additional challenges with manufacturing and distributing doses for the global population of nearly 8 billion.
Several other partnerships have already been announced including between Pfizer and BioNTech, and Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline.
There are currently at least 89 vaccines for the coronavirus in development globally, according to the WHO. Experts have predicted that it will take between 12 and 18 months for a vaccine to be deemed safe for distribution to the market.