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Nov 1, 2019

Bonds | Treasury Yields Report (11/1/19): Treasury yields jump after stronger-than-expected jobs report, solid wage growth

Thomas Franck



Treasury yields jumped on Friday after the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increase at a markedly higher rate than expected in the month of October.
The government also revised September and August jobs numbers significantly higher: August’s initial 168,000 estimate came all the way up to 219,000 while September’s jumped from 136,000 to 180,000.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 1.716% rising off its lowest level since Oct. 15. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.201%.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note climbed to 1.554%.
The good news in the jobs reported wasn’t isolated to absolute job gains as average hourly earnings increased 0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain, in line with estimates.
Though the consumer remains in strong shape, economists believe the strike at General Motors could have a hefty and negative impact on the October employment report. Analysts expect that just 75,000 jobs were created in October, and the unemployment rate is expected to tick up slightly to 3.6% from 3.6%, according to Dow Jones estimates.
ISM manufacturing data, also set for release Friday, is expected to show a contraction in activity in October for the third month in a row. The sector is thought to be central to the economy’s sluggishness, with a drop in business investment a big reason for the third quarter’s sluggish 1.9% growth pace.
On the trade front, media reports out Thursday suggested that China was reluctant about the prospects of a long-term trade deal with the U.S.
Later Thursday, President Donald Trump said on Twitter: “China and the USA are working on selecting a new site for signing of Phase One of Trade Agreement.”

Treasurys

TICKER COMPANY YIELD CHANGE %CHANGE
US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury1.531-0.0150.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.5310.0020.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.5540.0280.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.5440.0240.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.7140.0230.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury2.1930.0170.00

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