By Caleb Silver
What to Expect This Week:The third quarter of 2019 comes to a close on Monday (where did the year go?).
Earnings season will kick off in a couple of weeks, except for a few companies that report off-cycle, such as Pepsi (PEP), Constellation Brands (STZ), and Bed Bath and Beyond (BBY), which all report next week. They all have their fingers on the pulse of the global consumer, so their forecasts will be important to listen to.
The theme of the second quarter earnings was the impact of the trade war and global uncertainty balanced by the strength of the U.S.
Late Sunday, a reading of private manufacturing in China came in better than expected. The Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers Index posted its best reading in 19 months. This Tuesday is the Republic of China's 70th anniversary and the stage will be set for President Xi to proclaim China's rise since he became president, and present his future vision. Note that the U.S.
We'll get U.S.
U.K. GDP and BrexitWe'll get the final second quarter GDP results for the United Kingdom on Monday and the forecast is for a 0.5% drop. That would be the first negative quarter of growth
The potential outcomes are:
- The UK asks for and is granted a delay by the EU, pushing the Oct. 31 deadline out and delaying Brexit
- The U.K.
asksfor and is refused a delay, or doesn't ask for a delay, and the U.K. hasto Hard Brexit out of the EU on Oct. 31
of the U.K. Parliament and PM Johnson miraculously agree on a plan that
the EU blesses, and the U.K.
exitsthe EU with a deal on Oct. 31
- None of the above, and Parliament holds a "no confidence" vote on PM Johnson, and everything is thrown up in the air
- Greenland buys the U.K.
(I kid... it'sFriday)
U.S. Jobs Report (Friday)Friday brings the September nonfarm payrolls report. The U.S.
As mentioned earlier, consumer confidence in the U.S.