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Economics | Trump Has a Message for the World: My Trade Wars Aren't Over Yet
By
Shawn Donnan
5-7 minutes
President Donald Trump is sending a clear message to the
economic policy makers gathering in Washington for the IMF and World
Bank’s spring meetings: My trade wars aren’t finished yet and a
weakening global economy will just have to deal with it.
With his
latest threat to impose tariffs on $11 billion in imports from the
European Union -- from helicopters to Roquefort cheese -- the U.S.
president offered a vivid reminder that, even as he moves toward a deal
with China to end their tariff wars, he has other relationships he’s
eager to rewrite. That’s not encouraging for global growth, with the
International Monetary Fund and others pointing to the uncertainty over
Trump’s assault on the global trading system as a damper on business
investment and sentiment.
Donald Trump
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/BloombergShould
they materialize, the new tariffs will be in retaliation for what the
U.S. has long claimed are illegal subsidies to Airbus SE and cap a
14-year fight between Boeing Co. and its European rival at the World Trade Organization.
Importantly, the U.S. has said it will wait for the WTO, which has
already deemed the subsidies illegal, to rule this summer on the exact
amount of retaliation allowed.
That is potentially good news for the WTO and the broader
system Trump has often said he wants to blow up. The Airbus-Boeing fight
also predates Trump and it’s fair to say any U.S. administration would
be willing to use WTO-sanctioned retaliatory tariffs.
“It’s
a good sign,” Simon Lester, an associate director at the
Washington-based Cato Institute, said in an interview. The Trump
administration has been “sending some mixed signals about the World
Trade Organization, but this action suggests they still value playing by
the rules.”
But Trump has deeper issues with the EU. And that’s the
problem hanging over the global economy, which the IMF predicts will
grow this year at its slowest rate since the aftermath of the global financial crisis a decade earlier.
“The EU has taken advantage of the U.S. on trade for many years. It will soon stop!’’ Trump said on Twitter on Tuesday.
Jean-Claude Juncker
Photographer: Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty ImagesThe
two sides have kept a fragile truce since July when Jean-Claude
Juncker, the European Commission president, and Trump agreed to launch
talks on reducing industrial tariffs. The move put on hold Trump’s
threat to impose separate tariffs on imports of cars and parts from the
EU.
But the negotiations have yet to get underway in earnest with
the EU’s 28 members only expected to give the European Commission the
mandate it needs to begin talks in the coming days and casting a wary
eye on European elections due next month. Moreover, Trump faces a
decision in May on how he wants to proceed with the auto tariffs, though
White House officials have been telling their European counterparts
that there is a high chance that the duties could be delayed.
“It’s
very unfortunate that the U.S., once the great advocate and architect
of global alliances, seems today to be moving in a different direction,”
EU trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom said in a speech in Tokyo after the
latest tariff threat by Washington. “We see a broad withdrawal from
multilateralism by the U.S.”
Firing Line
The EU isn’t the only one in Trump’s firing line, of course.
U.S.
and Chinese officials are continuing their talks aimed at closing a
deal within the next month. Next week, a Japanese delegation is due in
Washington to begin negotiations over a bilateral deal with the U.S.
that American companies and farmers are clamoring for to make up for
Trump’s decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The
threat of auto tariffs that could batter Japan’s economy has forced
Tokyo back to the negotiation table. Their chief point man on trade,
Toshimitsu Motegi has insisted that any deal must be mutually beneficial,
suggesting that Japan won’t easily cave in. It’s unclear what the scope
of the talks will be, after an agreement between Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump in September referred to both goods
and services.
Canada and Mexico are continuing to push for the U.S. to lift
steel and aluminum tariffs imposed on them as all three countries work
to have their legislatures ratify Trump’s replacement for Nafta. India
is also threatening tariffs on U.S. apples and other products in
retaliation for Trump’s threat to kick the South Asian country out of a
preferential trade scheme for developing nations.
“We’re still in
the same tariff world that we were last year,” said Wendy Cutler, a
former senior U.S. trade negotiator now at the Asia Society.
That
still carries risks and lots of uncertainty, though Trump has been able
to use tariffs to force the EU, Japan and other trading partners into
negotiations, Cutler said. “The question is at what point does it
backfire. At what point do countries just say enough is enough?” — With assistance by Bryce Baschuk, Paul Jackson, and Brett Miller
(Updates with Malmstrom comment in the 10th paragraph.)
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