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Apr 29, 2019

Crude Oil Price Report on Monday 29, April 2019 I Oil prices steady after Trump says he pressed OPEC to offset Iran sanctions

Tom DiChristopher

A Petrobras oil platform floats in the Atlantic Ocean near Guanabara Bay in Rio de Janeiro.
Getty Images
Oil prices steadied on Monday, after a weeks-long rally was halted on Friday when the market tumbled after President Donald Trump claimed he demanded that producer club OPEC raise output to soften the impact of U.S. sanctions against Iran.
Brent crude futures were up 32 cents at $72.47 a barrel around 12:55 p.m. ET (1655 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 28 cents to $63.58.
Both benchmarks fell around 3% in the previous session, after Trump told reporters that he had called OPEC and told the cartel to lower oil prices, without identifying who he spoke to, or if he was speaking about previous discussions with OPEC officials.
However, analysts and market participants have downplayed the comments as details were unclear.Sources denied that several high-level OPEC and Saudi officials spoke to Trump.
"No representative of OPEC or the Saudi government has come forward to acknowledge any discussion in this regard," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates.
"This obvious effort to push gasoline prices down has been attempted previously by Trump and while forcing an initial price decline, such pullbacks have been followed by fresh price highs, sometimes within a matter of days."
Trump's remarks initially triggered a sell-off, putting a temporary ceiling on a 40 percent price rally since the start of the year. The slide was exacerbated by technical factors including an excessive speculative long position in U.S. crude, analysts said.
Speculators raised their combined futures and options net long positions in New York and London by 24,078 contracts to 326,818 during the week to April 23, the highest level since early October. That was the ninth consecutive increase.
The rally in oil prices had gained momentum in April after Trump tightened sanctions against Iran by ending all exemptions previously granted to that major buyers.
U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are also working to tighten global supply as fighting in Libya threatens to curb output there as well.
"We are dealing with a market that's not actually short of supply but is short due to politically-motivated action, and we know how quickly that can be turned around if necessary," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen told Reuters.
"Being a bear in the market is a very lonely place now."
Traders said the market was shifting its focus to the voluntary supply cuts led by OPEC, de facto headed by the world's top exporter Saudi Arabia.
"We are of the view that Saudi Arabia will increase output as soon as May, something they were likely to do anyway in the lead up to summer," ING bank said. "The Kingdom could increase output by 500 million barrels per day and still be in compliance with the OPEC+ deal for the month of May."
The cuts have been supported by some non-OPEC producers, notably Russia, but analysts said this cooperation may not last beyond a meeting between OPEC and its other allies, a group known as OPEC+, scheduled for June.
Russia has said it would be able to meet China's oil demand needs as Beijing tries to replace the imports it usually gets from Iran.
"Russia appears to have every reason to resume ramping up production levels and the base case should start to become (that) we will not see OPEC+ agree upon extending production cuts, with tweaks to cover the shortfall from Iran," said Edward Moya, senior analyst at futures brokerage OANDA.
— CNBC's Tom DiChristopher contributed to this report.

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