Fred Imbert, Sam Meredith
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded at 2.386 percent while the 2-year note yield climbed to 2.234 percent. Yields move inversely to prices.
Yields followed stocks higher. The major indexes all traded about 0.2 percent higher, led by the materials and consumer discretionary sectors.
U.S. Markets Overview: Treasurys chart
|US 3-MO||U.S. 3 Month Treasury||2.437||-0.005||0.00|
|US 1-YR||U.S. 1 Year Treasury||2.398||0.002||0.00|
|US 2-YR||U.S. 2 Year Treasury||2.23||0.022||0.00|
|US 5-YR||U.S. 5 Year Treasury||2.206||0.026||0.00|
|US 10-YR||U.S. 10 Year Treasury||2.389||0.017||0.00|
|US 30-YR||U.S. 30 Year Treasury||2.814||-0.007||0.00|
It’s a development that investors call an inverted yield curve and is seen as an early indicator of a recession.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years and has only offered a false signal just once in that time, according to data from Reuters.
A recent example is when the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted in late 2005, 2006, and again in 2007 before U.S. equity markets collapsed. The curve also inverted in late 2018.
Thursday’s moves come as China and the U.S. began a new round of trade talks. Investors fear that, if the two countries cannot reach a trade deal, it could contribute to slower economic growth.
On the data front, the final read on fourth-quarter economic growth matched expectations. Pending home sales for February dropped 1 percent despite the decline in rates.