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Feb 1, 2019

Bond Yields Closing Report: Treasury yields jump after economy adds more than 300,000 jobs in January

Thomas Franck

Treasury yields jumped on Friday after the Labor Department said the American economy added more than 300,000 jobs and more people entered the workforce in the month of January.
However, the job creation was not coupled with robust wage growth; average hourly earnings rose just three cents on the month, or 0.1 percent, well below the 0.3 percent expected gain. Yields also jumped after the Institute for Supply Manufacturing said activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January.
The short-term 2-year rate rose 5 basis points to 2.504 percent. The yield on the long-term 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.677 percent at 10:12 a.m. ET. Yields fall as bond prices rise.
December’s big initially reported gain of 312,000 was revised all the way down to 222,000, while November’s rose from 176,000 to 196,000.The three-month average job gain is 241,000.
The ISM said that January PMI registered 56.6 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the December reading of 54.3 percent, while new orders registered 58.2 percent, an increase of 6.9 percentage points.
“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, supported by strong demand and output,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management. “The manufacturing sector continues to expand, reversing December’s weak expansion, but inputs and prices indicate fundamental changes in supply chain constraints.”
Much of the action so far this week has stemmed from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank kept the federal funds rate steady as expected, but also vowed to be “patient” when adjusting monetary policy in the future.

U.S. Markets Overview: Treasurys chart

US 3-MOU.S. 3 Month Treasury2.396-0.0010.00
US 1-YRU.S. 1 Year Treasury2.5650.0130.00
US 2-YRU.S. 2 Year Treasury2.5060.0440.00
US 5-YRU.S. 5 Year Treasury2.5030.0630.00
US 10-YRU.S. 10 Year Treasury2.6840.0490.00
US 30-YRU.S. 30 Year Treasury3.0250.0220.00
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference later Wednesday afternoon that “the case for raising rates has weakened somewhat,” a statement many understood to mean that the central bank has finished its quarter-by-quarter increases to the overnight rate.
“The Chairman’s conciliatory tone surely shaped the variance of responses as to when the Fed will next raise rates,” Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets. “Answers varied from the March meeting to not again this cycle and the average response was the December 2019 meeting.”
The Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will speak at the Texas Lyceum Public Conference in Austin at 9:45 a.m. ET. There are no Treasury auctions planned for Friday.
— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed reporting.
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Source: CNBC

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