Trump says he may send 15,000 troops to U.S.-Mexico border I National Security I The Washington Post

washingtonpost.com

By Paul Sonne 

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Airman 1st Class Trevor Pearce helps guide a military vehicle into the cargo compartment of a C-17 Globemaster III at Fort Knox, Kentucky, on Oct. 29, 2018. (Airman 1st Class Zoe Wockenfuss/AP)

Paul Sonne
National security reporter focusing on the U.S. military

Missy Ryan
Reporter covering the Pentagon, military issues and national security

October 31 at 4:49 PM

President Trump said Wednesday that he would deploy as many as 15,000 military personnel to the border with Mexico in response to a caravan of Central American migrants making its way northward, doubling the figure that Pentagon officials said would be headed there.  

Trump said he was prepared to deploy anywhere between 10 and 15,000 military personnel to ensure “nobody’s coming in.” His comments came a day after the general in charge of the border deployment said 5,239 active-duty troops would be heading to the border with more potentially to follow, in addition to the 2,092 members of the National Guard already there. 

“We’ll go up to anywhere between 10 and 15,000 military personnel on top of Border Control, ICE, and everybody else at the border,” Trump said in remarks to reporters before departing Washington for a campaign rally in Florida. “Nobody’s coming in. We’re not allowing people to come in.”

If the deployment reaches 15,000 troops, it would be roughly equivalent to the size of the U.S. military’s presence in Afghanistan and three times the size of the presence in Iraq. Already, the deployment is believed to be the largest of its kind in more than a century. 

The decision to deploy such a large number of troops in the days before the midterm elections has resulted in accusations from critics of the president that he is using the issue as a political stunt designed to fire up a base concerned about immigration.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, speaking to reporters during a visit by the South Korean defense minister to the Pentagon, rejected the criticism on Tuesday, saying that the military was deploying to support the Department of Homeland Security and Customs and Border Protection. 

“The support that we provide to the Secretary for Homeland Security is practical support based on the request from the commissioner of customs and border police, so we don't do stunts in this department,” Mattis said. 

The defense secretary said the military had carried out similar missions within the United States following natural disasters. “We are there in support of the Secretary of Homeland Security, who needs additional military assistance,” he said. 

EU FX I Currencies: Dollar at new 16-month high as US data lends support I CNBC

cnbc.com

CNBC

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The dollar edged up to a fresh 16-month high against a basket of key currencies on Wednesday on the back of continued U.S. economic strength, putting the greenback on pace for a seventh straight month of gains.
Against a basket of its rivals, the dollar, was up 0.13 percent at 97.12, its highest level since June 2017.
"If you look at the G10 as well as some of the emerging markets, they have been battered quite a bit over the last six months and the movements over the past two, three weeks has not helped," said Minh Trang, senior FX trader at Silicon Valley Bank in Santa Clara, California.
"Especially if you look at currencies like the euro or the pound," Trang added.
The euro slipped 0.28 percent against the greenback, while the dollar climbed 0.06 percent against the Japanese yen. Both currencies have shed more than 2 percent in October.
Less-than-stellar economic news from the euro zone region has weighed on the euro, while Brexit-related worries have hurt the British pound.
The dollar, meanwhile, has enjoyed a boost from robust economic reports, including data last week which showed the U.S. economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter.
The ADP national employment report on Wednesday showed that U.S. private sector payrolls increased by the most in eight months in October, suggesting overall job growth accelerated this month after Hurricane Florence weighed on restaurant and retail employment in September.
The U.S. Federal Reserve increased interest rates in September for the third time this year and is expected to raise rates again in December, even as the European Central Bank's plan to raise rates late next year may be challenged by alarmingly slow growth in the euro zone region.
"There seems to be a little bit of a disconnect between how the U.S. has really fared over the last two years and what's going on outside," Trang said.
Part of the discord may have to do with the trade-related tensions, Trang said. Investors view the United States to be in better shape than its trading rivals to weather a trade war.
The dollar was 0.08 percent higher against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady on Wednesday, reinforcing views that the central bank is in no rush to trim its massive stimulus.
Sterling rose off a 10-week low as investors turned their attention to a Bank of England monetary policy meeting on Thursday, when it is expected to keep interest rates on hold and detail conditions necessary for policy tightening.
The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as the greenback broadly climbed, offsetting data that showed a surprise strengthening of the domestic economy in August.

Bonds & Fixed Income Report: US Treasury yields climb after strong jobs data I CNBC

cnbc.com

Thomas Franck, Sam Meredith

U.S. government debt yields rose Wednesday morning after a report showed that companies continued to hire at a quick pace in October, suggesting further economic strength.

ADP and Moody's Analytics said private payrolls increased by a better-than-expected 227,000 over the month; economists polled by Refinitiv had expected growth of 189,000 positions. Construction and manufacturing each added 17,000 each, according to the report.
At around 4:02 p.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, was higher at around 3.149 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at 3.391 percent. Bond yields move inversely to their prices.
The latest employment data from ADP and Moody's comes two days ahead of the Labor Department's monthly report on the employment situation in the United States. Investors will scrutinize the release on Friday for both the number of jobs added in the month of October, but also for any signs of rising wages.
Market sentiment has been hit by a confluence of factors in recent weeks, ranging from intensifying global trade tensions, worries about economic growth, rising U.S. interest rates and company earnings.

Though no U.S. Treasury auctions are scheduled for Wednesday, the total outstanding stock of Treasurys is $10 trillion higher at the end of October 2018 than it was before the financial crisis.
"With trillion dollar deficits continuing, the risks are rising that there will not be enough dollars for risky assets given the enormous increase in the stock of risk-free assets yielding a higher return as the Fed continues to raise rates," wrote Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.
"In sum, the supply of risk-free fixed income is growing and demand for fixed income is shrinking. This all points to higher rates and wider credit spreads," he added.

Oil Price at Close Report: Oil prices sink 10.8% in October, settling at $65.31, in worst monthly loss since July 2016 I CNBC

cnbc.com

CNBC

7-8 minutes

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Getty Images
A truck used to carry sand for fracking is washed in a truck stop in Odessa, Texas.

Oil prices fell in volatile trade on Wednesday, posting their worst monthly performance since July 2016.
Strong U.S. demand for fuel helped offset a sixth straight weekly jump in American crude stockpiles and evidence of rising global supply, but oil prices fell late in the trading session.
U.S. light crude ended Wednesday's session down 86 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $65.31. The contract plunged 10.8 percent in October.
Benchmark Brent crude oil fell 44 cents at $75.47 a barrel, ending October down nearly 9 percent.
Both benchmarks were about $11 a barrel below four-year highs reached on Oct. 3 and saw their worst monthly performance since July 2016.

Oil has been caught in the global financial market slump this month, raising concerns about global oil demand. Equities have been under pressure from the trade war between the world's two largest economies, the United States and China.
The United States has already imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods and China has responded with retaliatory duties on $110 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Oil market sentiment received some support on Wednesday from equity markets, which bounced from 20-month lows after pledges by China to support its markets.
Oil prices briefly gained after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose 3.2 million barrels last week, less than expected. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell as total product demand over the past four weeks rose 5.4 percent from a year ago.
"In spite of the increase of crude oil inventories, crude futures prices are being supported by the inventory decline in refined products," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

New U.S. sanctions on Iran begin on Nov. 4 and Washington has made it clear to Tehran's customers that it expects them to stop buying any Iranian crude oil from that date.
Imports of Iranian crude by major buyers in Asia hit a 32-month low in September, as China, South Korea and Japan sharply cut their purchases ahead of the sanctions, government and ship-tracking data showed.
"The bullish argument for crude still centres on Iran sanctions which are due to begin in November, and continued output declines from Venezuela," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities.
But oil supply from other countries is rising. The top three producers - Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States - pumped 33 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, Refinitiv data showed, an increase of 10 million bpd since the start of the decade.
Russian oil output has reached 11.41 million bpd, a level unseen since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, an industry source told Reuters.
— CNBC's Tom DiChristopher contributed to this report.

Gold Price at Close Report I Gold slides to 3-week low as dollar rises, stocks rebound I CNBC

cnbc.com

CNBC

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Gold fell to a near three-week low on Wednesday as the dollar scaled a 16-month peak and a bounce in stock markets following a recent rout revealed renewed appetite for riskier investments.
However, the metal remained on track for its best month since January, ending a six-month run of losses in October, the longest such streak since a period from August 1996 to January 1997, boosted by stock market volatility.
Spot gold was down 0.71 percent at $1,213.93 per ounce having touched its lowest since Oct. 11 at $1,211.52.
U.S. gold futures settled at $1,215.
"Gold has struggled to benefit as a safe haven asset," said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. "In the near term, gold is very much driven by the risk-environment, the equity market performance and the strength of the dollar."
The dollar index climbed to its highest level in 16 months while stock markets bounced after a brutal October.
Gold has fallen by about 11 percent since April, hit by rising U.S. interest rates and a global trade war that threatens economic growth, prompting investors to rush to the safety of the dollar, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.
"The next key event to watch is the U.S. midterm election and the real implications for gold will be based on how the dollar reacts," Cooper said.
The midterm elections on Nov. 6 will determine whether the Republican or Democratic party controls the U.S. Congress.
"If there are signs that the Republicans are going to do well, this will probably lead to yet more dollar strength," said Alasdair Macleod, head of research at GoldMoney.com
In other precious metals, silver fell 1.32 percent to $14.25 per ounce, having slipped as low as $14.21, matching a low last touched on Oct. 10.
"A number of factors that are impacting gold, such as the dollar and the equity markets, are as important for the silver markets. But we're seeing a more pronounced weakness in silver because its fundamentals have weakened," Standard Chartered's Cooper said.
Platinum was up 0.44 percent at $836.20 while palladium rose nearly 1 percent to $1,082.10.

Wall Street at Close Report I Stocks surge to cap off wild October, but S&P 500 posts biggest monthly loss since 2011 I CNBC

cnbc.com

Fred Imbert

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Stocks rose sharply on Wednesday for a second straight day as strong earnings from General Motors and Facebook lifted sentiment. But the major averages were still on pace for big October losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 242 points, led by Visa and Goldman Sachs, bringing its two-day gain to nearly 650 points. The S&P 500 gained 1.1 percent as consumer discretionary and energy outperformed. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2 percent and briefly climbed out of correction territory.
Still, the major averages posted big losses for the month:

• The S&P 500 lost 6.9 percent in October, its biggest one-month slide since September 2011, when it fell 7.2 percent.
• The Dow dropped 5.1 percent to post its biggest monthly fall since January 2016, when it dropped 5.5 percent.
• The Nasdaq plunged 9.2 percent, its largest monthly pullback since November 2008, when it shed 10.8 percent.

"The earnings story is flip-flopping between being very good and pretty good," said Craig Birk, CIO at Personal Capital. "There's also some optimism that a breakthrough on trade could happen."
"The drop this month came out of nowhere. Usually that's a sign of a correction and not a bear market," he said. "Usually a bear market rolls more slowly."
General Motors shares spiked 9.1 percent after the company reported quarterly results that easily topped expectations. The company said it sold fewer cars in the third quarter, but at a higher price, boosting its bottom line.
Facebook shares rose 3.8 percent after the company reported on Tuesday better-than-expected earnings. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said during the company's earnings call Facebook plans to invest significantly in its business next year. He also said Facebook plans to build products such as Facebook Watch and Instagram TV.
The stock's rise on Wednesday led Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Alphabet higher.
Equities have been under pressure this month amid renewed concern over rising interest rates and U.S.-China trade relations, as well as worries about slowing corporate earnings growth. Tech shares have also taken a big hit, adding pressure to the broader indexes. Facebook's gains Wednesday helped ease these losses, but the sector is still down more than 8 percent for October.

But Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, thinks the situation is not as bad as it seems.
"Even though the list of worries has grown in October, it is quite reassuring to know that consensus estimates for 2019 S&P 500 earnings per share actually increased this month," Detrick said. "Call us old school, but we still think earnings drive long-term stock gains, and this is a great sign amid all the market volatility."
U.S. stocks closed higher in the previous session, as markets pared some of the month's losses. Such a move is not uncommon as a month of steep declines comes to an end.
According to data from Bespoke Investment Group, when the S&P 500 is down more at least 8 percent with two trading days left in a month, the index has bounced back 80 percent of the time in those last days. The data date back to 1952.
On the data front, private payrolls rose by 227,000 in October, according to a report from ADP and Moody's Analytics. The gain is more than economists polled by Refinitiv expected.
This report comes ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.
— CNBC's Sam Meredith , Thomas Franck and John Melloy contributed to this report.

USDZAR higher following balance of trade report | ForexTime (FXTM)

forextime.com

31 October By Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy and Market Research at FXTM

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Rand stands as biggest EM loser following balance of trade report
The South African Rand stands at time of writing as the biggest loser amongst emerging markets currencies today with losses of 1.56%, after South Africa’s latest balance of trade report unexpectedly showed slowing export growth.
The recently-announced trade balance data for September has essentially resumed selling pressure on the Rand. The market is not pleased with the news that export growth fell by 2.6% month-on-month, with the essential factor to consider that slowing export growth at a time where the domestic economy is in a technical recession is never a positive sign for any global economy.
Figures like this do suggest that external uncertainties, such as the prolonged trade tensions and warnings from respected institutions like the IMF that global growth has potentially “plateaued” is a problem for emerging markets in particular.
Overall, I wouldn’t read too much into a one-off data release, but investors would be mindful to monitor the upcoming economic releases from South Africa for validation behind why exactly the Finance Minister downgraded the South African economic growth outlook so sharply from 1.6% to 0.7%.
If further economic releases from South Africa provide an explanation to why the growth outlook for the country was sharply revised lower during the medium-term budget statement one week ago, it does risk weighing further selling momentum on the Rand.
One factor that is also not helping the Rand over the near-term is the news of the Dollar edging to further 2018 high’s at time of writing. Dollar strength remains as a major challenge to emerging markets.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Metals I CMI Spot Prices as of Close of Trading in New York

Spot Prices as of close of trading in New York   Wednesday, October 31, 2018

GOLD

TODAY   $1,213.90 CHANGE   -$10.30 WEEK AGO   $1,229.90 MONTH AGO   $1,190.50 YEAR AGO   $1,269.45

SILVER

TODAY   $14.26 CHANGE   -$0.19 WEEK AGO   $14.66 MONTH AGO   $14.48 YEAR AGO   $16.72

PLATINUM

TODAY   $844.20 CHANGE   +$3.20 WEEK AGO   $833.60 MONTH AGO   $825.50 YEAR AGO   $921.70

PALLADIUM

TODAY   $1,068.50 CHANGE   +$10.80 WEEK AGO   $1,114.30 MONTH AGO   $1,070.50 YEAR AGO   $979.70

GOLD/SILVER RATIO

85.13

DSIO Issues No-Action Relief Regarding Futures Commission Merchant’s Deposit of Customer-Owned Securities as Margin with UK Broker I CFTC I Press Release

cftc.gov

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October 31, 2018

Washington, DC — The  Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Division of Swap Dealer and Intermediary Oversight (DSIO) today issued a no-action letter to provide relief to a futures commission merchant (FCM) from certain requirements regarding the holding of customer-owned securities as margin for trading on foreign futures and options markets under CFTC regulations. This letter supersedes CFTC Letter No. 16-88 and was issued due to certain changes in the facts and circumstances represented in letter 16-88 resulting from changes to European laws. 
The current relief provides that DSIO would not recommend an enforcement action if an FCM deposited customer-owned securities with a foreign broker located in the United Kingdom (UK) to margin foreign futures or foreign options positions executed on a UK foreign board of trade, and the UK foreign broker posted such securities with a UK clearing organization that is authorized as a central counterparty (EU CCP) under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR).  Also, this relief is conditioned upon the EU CCP holding the customer-owned securities in a gross omnibus segregated account pursuant to EMIR requirements.

European Markets at Close Report: European markets extend comeback to close higher but October losses weigh I CNBC

cnbc.com

David Reid, Sam Meredith, Silvia Amaro

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European stocks rallied Wednesday as investors digested further corporate earnings and took advantage of heavy selling during October.

FTSE	FTSE 100	7128.10		92.25	1.31%	921068649
DAX	DAX	11447.51		160.12	1.42%	131220516
CAC	CAC	5093.44		114.91	2.31%	134279641

The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally rose 1.74 percent over the session, with all sectors in positive territory. France's CAC 40 index led the gains among the major bourses, trading more than 2.3 percent higher.
Europe's basic resources stocks were the top performers, surging almost 3.6 percent higher amid stronger-than-anticipated earnings news.
Despite the late-October rally, Britain's FTSE 100 is down about 5 percent for the month, the Euro Stoxx 600 down 5.6 percent while the S&P 500 in the United States has lost almost percent.
Looking across the European benchmark, L'Oreal rose towards the top of the European benchmark, after reporting higher third-quarter sales from a year ago. Shares of the Paris-listed stock jumped 6.7 percent on the news.
Standard Chartered also rose 3.2 percent after reporting a jump in profits from a year ago. Banco Santander shares ended up 2.1 percent after third-quarter profits surged.
Meanwhile, tire maker Nokian Renkaat slumped towards the bottom of the index after cutting its outlook on the back of lower third-quarter sales. The Finnish company sank 10 percent during mid-morning deals.
A rebound on Wall Street helped push equity markets up on Wednesday. U.S. stocks erased some of the steep losses seen in October thanks to strong performances in both communications and consumer discretionary stocks.

Brexit date

The U.K.'s Brexit secretary has told lawmakers in a letter that he expects the country's exit deal with the EU can be finalized by November 21.
Sterling spiked following the news and was up more than 0.4 percent versus the dollar as the European closing bells rang.
The letter, dated October 24 but published Wednesday, further stated that "the end is now firmly in sight and, while obstacles remain, it cannot be beyond us to navigate them."

Euro zone inflation rises

On the data front, euro zone inflation accelerated to 2.2 percent in October, Eurostat reported Wednesday. The uptick from 2.1 percent in the month prior provides further rationale to the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to dial back stimulus even as growth in the bloc runs out of steam.
In the meantime, investors will keep monitoring developments between Brussels and Rome. The European Commission told Italy on Tuesday that its large debt pile is a concern for the entire region.

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Bullion banks want market rigging, not higher prices: GATA I THE GATA DISPATCH

Submitted by cpowell on 02:59PM ET Wednesday, October 31, 2018. Section: Daily Dispatches 9:50a CT Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Writing at Sprott Money, the TF Metals Report's Craig Hemke notes today that the big commercial traders in the monetary metals futures markets, the bullion banks, have flipped from long to short again on what was only a small move up in prices. This, Hemke argues, shows that the banks envision forever making their money through market manipulation on behalf of central banks rather than through accumulating metal and someday driving prices up.

Hemke concludes: "So, please: The next time you hear someone state that 'the banks are getting long' and that price is thus 'set to explode,' think otherwise. The banks that operate on the Comex are not your friend, they are not your ally, and they are not interested in profiting on the long side. Instead, their goal is to manipulate and manage price to their own benefit and to the benefit of their central bank masters.

"This has been the case since precious metals futures contracts came into existence in 1975, and it will be the case until this system finally implodes under the sheer weight of its inherent corruption, deception, and fraud."
Hemke's analysis is headlined "The Same Old Comex Games" and it's posted at Sprott Money here:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-same-old-comex-games-craig-hemke-31...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

Dollars declined as India plans to pay in rubles for Russian air-defense system I GATA I THE GATA DISPATCH

Submitted by cpowell on 02:38PM ET Wednesday, October 31, 2018. Section: Daily Dispatches From Russia Today, Moscow
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
The contract between Moscow and New Delhi on supplies of Russian S-400 air defense systems will be settled in rubles, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov.
The move comes as Moscow intensifies recent efforts to make de-dollarization of the Russian economy one of the main pillars of its policy. The Kremlin is looking for an alternative to the U.S. dollar in mutual settlements with international partners. The key point of the plan is to make it more profitable for Russian exporters and importers to use rubles instead of dollars. ...
... For the remainder of the report:
https://www.rt.com/business/442716-india-s-400-ruble-settlement/

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Analysis | The Daily 202: House races become more nationalized in Trump-era midterms I Analysis | The Daily 202 I The Washington Post

washingtonpost.com

By James Hohmann

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Rep. George Holding (R-N.C.) speaks during a debate at the WRAL studios in Raleigh. (Travis Long/News & Observer/AP)

THE BIG IDEA:
WAKE FOREST, N.C.—George Holding’s 16-year-old daughter asked him on Monday whether he thinks President Trump will win reelection next week. The Republican congressman, locked in a tight race for a fourth term that has drawn a flood of late spending from national outside groups, could understand why. “You would think the president is on the ballot – just because he’s front and center every day,” Holding said in an interview yesterday afternoon after stopping for lunch at his favorite hot dog stand.
The congressman said partisans on the left and right appear to be much more engaged in 2018 than during the last midterm election, even though the country’s most expensive Senate race in 2014 was here. The latest data shows that nearly four times as many early votes have been cast in Holding’s 2nd District compared to the same point four years ago. That’s especially remarkable because there is no Senate or governor’s contest in the Tar Heel State.
Both Holding and his Democratic challenger, Linda Coleman, recognize this intensity has little or nothing to do with them. “At the end of the day, the president rallies both sides,” said Holding, with a laugh. “That’s why I think you’ll see a much higher turnout in ’18 than ’14. It’s harder to forget we have an election!”
“I have not talked about Donald Trump in this race at all,” Coleman said in an interview. “People kind of know who he is and what he does, so there's no point in my bringing him up. They already know. So what I've been pushing are the issues.”
-- I interviewed 30 people who voted early at two separate polling locations on opposite ends of Wake County, the most populous in the district. The most striking takeaway was how little even proud partisans knew about the local candidates on their ballot, including the incumbent. Whenever I’d inquire about the House race, Republicans and Democrats alike would usually start talking about Trump or other national figures.
Kevin McCorkle, a 51-year-old Republican, said he didn’t do a lot of research on the candidates, but he didn’t need to because he’s confident Nancy Pelosi will raise his taxes if she becomes speaker of the House again. He also singled out Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), who is in line to become chair of the Financial Services Committee if Democrats win the House. “They’re all so quick to point fingers and say everything is Trump’s fault,” he said. “I wasn’t a big fan of Trump coming in, and I don’t like his personality and all the bullying, but I’ve come to think maybe that’s what’s really needed. Trump is just as bad as the rest, but there are more jobs and fewer people on food stamps.”
Like so many in the South, McCorkle – who works at a plant that makes signs – grew up as a Democrat but came to identify as a Republican during the 1990s. He voted for Ted Cruz in the 2016 GOP primary. “Trump makes comments, but people always take them out of context,” he said. “Trump is not racist by any means … but if you come at him, he’s going to come back at you. He’s not going to let somebody walk over him. Or us. Trump is not beholden to anybody.”
The next person after him in line to vote early at a county office building was Scott Masten, 50, an environmental scientist who specializes in toxicology. He used to be an independent but recently changed his registration to become a Democrat. He voted for Coleman but said he was really casting a ballot against Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) becoming speaker. He also criticized by name several other high-profile GOP lawmakers who he’s eager to relegate to the minority, including Florida’s Matt Gaetz and California’s Devin Nunes. “Get ‘em out. It doesn’t get much more complicated than that,” said Masten. “My bar is low. It’s just too much has gone badly. It’s not even as much the issues. It’s behaviors. I don’t even really think about specifics. The House is pretty messed up. Even on the Democratic side, we need better leadership.”
-- The other major takeaway from the interviews was how most Republicans I talked with closely echoed comments Trump has made recently on Twitter or that hosts make during primetime on Fox News. Jenny Boese, 62, owns her own consulting business but is mostly retired. She considers herself more a conservative than a Republican and supports Trump. She said she’s very worried about what she sees as “the mob mentality” of Democrats. “There are mobs on both sides, but I see it more on the other side,” she said.
Boese sees a double standard in the Democratic response to the pipe bombs mailed to various elected leaders and media outlets last week. She remembers Republican leaders saying last year after Steve Scalise got shot that it wasn’t Bernie Sanders’s fault, even though the shooter had supported him in 2016. But she’s frustrated to see Democrats and the media emphasize that the alleged would-be bomber was a Trump supporter – when, in her view, he was nothing more than a lunatic. “It took Nancy Pelosi not even half a day until she made derogatory remarks,” said Boese.

President Trump greets the crowd at his rally last Friday night in Charlotte, N.C. (Chuck Burton/AP)

-- In a district like this, which the president carried by just under 10 points in 2016, this dynamic works to the GOP’s advantage. But in the places Trump lost to Hillary Clinton, the growing nationalization of House races could help Democrats knock out entrenched incumbents.
“In the age of Trump, everything is different,” said Charles Hellwig, the chairman of the Wake County GOP. “This feels less like a midterm and more like a presidential. … For the next two and hopefully six years, they are all going to feel like presidentials. If you hate him or you love him, Trump is the news. As long as it drives up the turnout equally for both parties, I feel very good. If it’s just the Democrats voting, then we’ve got problems.”
He said the top priority of the GOP’s local field program is driving out Trump supporters who voted in 2016 but not in the 2014 midterms. Hellwig believes there continues to be a small pocket of voters who don’t want to tell pollsters that they approve of the president, and this constituency could prove key to Holding’s survival. “If they vote, then we’re going to have a great Tuesday,” he said. “Trump has probably changed what midterms mean. What’s happening with the White House drives a lot of the interest. They hate him, or they love him.”
-- Gerrymandering allows Republicans to control 10 of the 13 seats in the closely divided state, but the GOP is in danger of losing three of those because of the national environment. Besides Holding, Rep. Ted Budd appears to be in some trouble and Baptist pastor Mark Harris is struggling to hold what should be a safe GOP seat after defeating incumbent Rep. Robert Pittenger in a May primary. All three have tied themselves to Trump. In 2016, not a single congressional race in North Carolina was competitive. All were decided by more than 10 points.
-- Holding didn’t attend Trump’s rally last Friday night in Charlotte, a three-hour drive from here, but he said that was only because he’d already agreed to speak at a house party in his district. He estimated that about 20 supporters who were going to be at his event in Apex made the trek to see the president instead. “I was happy to help get a bunch of them tickets,” Holding said.
The National Republican Congressional Committee announced last week that it would spend $616,000 supporting Holding, a day after Emily's List launched a $446,000 ad buy for Coleman – bringing its investment to nearly a million dollars. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP’s super PAC, has gone up with commercials that accuse Coleman of being late to pay her property taxes.
Holding, 50, a former U.S. attorney who got his start working as a legislative counsel for the late Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), focused on tax and tobacco policy. Two years ago, he beat fellow Rep. Renee Ellmers in a GOP primary when redistricting put them in the same district. But most voters here don’t have strong feelings for or against the incumbent. In the general election, Holding ran ahead of the president by five points – pulling 57 percent to Trump’s 52 percent. “We knew we were going to face headwinds – just historically,” he said. “We’ve been gearing up for this for a long time. … A lot of the stuff the national groups run is kind of cookie cutter stuff. You look at all their ads, and they all look the same. It’s not as finely tuned as you’d want.”
Holding might be running harder on last year’s tax cuts than any Republican in the country. “I know a lot of my colleagues aren’t … but I’ve been happy to campaign on it because this district has benefited economically,” he said. “You ride around our district and you see the growth. … Voters are smart: they realize a congressional race is about federal issues. I don’t think I’d get much traction if I spent my time talking about state ballot measures.”

Linda Coleman campaigns in Raleigh on Sunday at the Chavis Community Center, an early voting location. (James Hohmann/The Washington Post)

-- Coleman, 69, was twice the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor. She’s a former Wake County commissioner, state House member and directed the state personnel office under former Gov. Bev Perdue (D).
She argues that this is not a base election. “Let me tell you something about this district: It's about a third, a third, a third,” she said. “It's more Republicans than Democrats … but more Democrats than independents or unaffiliated. They’re about a third, and unaffiliateds will clearly make the difference in this race because neither one of us can win this district without the unaffiliated vote because there just aren't enough votes on either side.”
She said these middle-of-the-road voters don’t like “the tone” coming out of Washington and feel America’s standing in the world has diminished over the past two years. “They also don't like the fact that we can't seem to come together to do anything, and they don’t like that we're not dealing with the issues in a way that is civil,” she argued.
Because of gerrymandering, Coleman said she knew that this would be an especially tough election to win when Democrats recruited her. She remembered a conversation from last year with an astute local observer of politics who she declined to name. “He said the numbers say you're going to have to work hard, but the numbers are there and he's unlikeable. … You're the only one who can do this,” she recalled. “I said, ‘Okay, so on a scale of 1 to 10, just how hard is this? And he said a nine. And, truly, I think it has been a nine.”
But Coleman thinks that, by outhustling Holding, she’s as well positioned as she can possibly be to ride a blue wave if it forms. And she sees fresh evidence every day that it will still come, including the influx of outside spending. “Because people want change,” she said. “People are so dissatisfied with the current state of affairs … and they understand the role that Congress plays in helping to shape the culture that exists now. It’s one like no other, and people understand what's at stake.”
-- But even if she’s strategically not talking about Trump, a lot of her supporters still do. Rep. David Price (D), who represents a solidly blue district next door, campaigned with Coleman on Sunday afternoon at a community center in Raleigh where people can vote early. “Trump is the 800-pound whatever in every conversation we have,” Price, 78, said in an interview. “We know that. There’s a huge backlash to Trump, and there should be. But that doesn't mean that’s all we’re talking about. … We're going to resist Trump. We're going to erect a barricade. We have to win the House to do that, but we're also going to chart a new course.”
“At this moment, I’ve never seen so much hate that has been so apparent as it is right now,” added Jessica Holmes, the chair of the Wake County Board of Commissioners, a Democrat who is running unopposed for reelection. “When President Obama was elected, there was a sense of pride. But I don’t think there was this concern for the very well-being and the heart and soul of the country that’s driving the sense of urgency now,” said Holmes, 34. “People are worried about school safety and being able to practice religion freely in church.”

James “Whitey” Bulger was killed in a West Virginia prison. (U.S. Marshal Service/AP)

GET SMART FAST:​​

1. Former Boston mob boss Whitey Bulger died at 89 in a West Virginia prison. The death of Bulger, who became infamous after evading authorities for 16 years, is being investigated as a homicide, and two fellow inmates have been identified as suspects. (Paul Duggan)
   
2. A U.S. citizen working as a missionary in Cameroon was shot and killed in front of his wife and son. The killing of Charles Wesco comes amid escalating unrest in the country. Cameroon’s defense minister said in a statement that “a group of terrorists” shot at Wesco’s car, hitting him in the temple. (Siobhán O'Grady)
   
3. More than 20 Afghans died in a military helicopter crash. The Taliban claimed credit for the crash, saying it downed the helicopter in a “direct attack.” (Sayed Salahuddin)
   
4. Indonesian authorities have started recovering fragmentary remains from the site of the Lion Air crash. A forensic team will try to make identifications from the remains. (Stanley Widianto and Shibani Mahtani)
   
5. The world’s wildlife populations have declined by 60 percent since 1970, according to a new report from the advocacy group World Wildlife Fund. The group points to environmental exploitation, unsustainable agriculture and climate change as some of the main causes. (Alex Horton)
   
6. A new study suggests the number of heart attacks increases when temperatures plummet. A team of researchers used 16 years of medical and weather data to draw their conclusions. (Reuters)
   
7. More than 1,000 demonstrators gathered at Boston’s City Hall Plaza to voice support for Massachusetts’s law protecting transgender people from discrimination in public places. Massachusetts residents will vote next week on a referendum to potentially repeal the law, but polls have shown that support for the legislation runs high. (Karen Weintraub)
   
8. According to a forthcoming book, William Rehnquist proposed to fellow future Supreme Court justice Sandra Day O’Connor in the early 1950s. The pair dated while at Stanford Law School together, and author Evan Thomas has uncovered a letter in which Rehnquist wrote that he wanted to talk to his former classmate about “important things.” “To be specific, Sandy, will you marry me this summer?” (NPR)
   

Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke participates in a ribbon-cutting ceremony on the Mall. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

CASCADING INVESTIGATIONS:
-- Another October surprise: “The Interior Department’s Office of Inspector General has referred one of its probes into the conduct of Secretary Ryan Zinke to the Justice Department for further investigation,” Juliet Eilperin and Josh Dawsey report. “Deputy Inspector General Mary L. Kendall, who is serving as acting inspector general, is conducting at least three probes that involve Zinke. These include his involvement in a Montana land deal and the decision not to grant two tribes approval to operate a casino in Connecticut. [It’s not clear which was referred to DOJ.]

• While an agency’s IG regularly issues reports on the findings of its inquiries, it refers cases to the DOJ only when it has determined that there could be criminal violations.
• “Zinke is looking for a political nominee who could replace Kendall, a career official who has served in an acting capacity since 2009.
• “A senior White House official … said the White House understands that the investigation is looking into whether the secretary ‘used his office to help himself.’”

“One of the allegations under investigation regards the secretary’s role in a Montana land development deal backed by David J. Lesar, chairman of the oil services firm Halliburton … The business and retail park, known as 95 Karrow, is slated to include several businesses and would be near multiple parcels of land owned by Zinke and his wife. The deal involves land owned by a foundation now headed by Zinke’s wife, Lola, which the secretary used to run before joining the Trump administration.
“Separately, the [IG] is examining Zinke’s involvement in his department’s refusal to sign off on a proposed casino deal in Connecticut involving the Mashantucket Pequot and Mohegan tribes. Interior career staffers had recommended approving the tribes' application to jointly run the casino, which would have competed with an MGM Resorts International casino across the border, in Massachusetts. But MGM and two Nevada senators lobbied against the permit, and in the end, Zinke did not grant it. … Interior’s inspector general has subpoenaed documents from MGM.”

Robert Mueller departs Capitol Hill following a closed-door meeting in Washington. (Andrew Harnik/AP)

-- Special counsel Bob Mueller is probing whether Trump ally and longtime confidant Roger Stone may have helped WikiLeaks time its release of Democratic emails. Robert Costa, Carol D. Leonnig, Rosalind S. Helderman and Manuel Roig-Franzia report: “On Friday, Mueller’s team questioned Stephen K. Bannon, [Trump’s] former chief strategist, about claims Stone is said to have made privately about WikiLeaks before the group released emails that prosecutors say were hacked by Russian operatives, according to people familiar with the session. … Investigators have questioned witnesses about events surrounding Oct. 7, 2016, the day The Washington Post published a recording of Trump bragging about his ability to grab women by their genitals . . . Less than an hour after The Post published its story about Trump’s crude comments during a taping of ‘Access Hollywood,’ WikiLeaks delivered a competing blow to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by releasing a trove of emails hacked from the account of her campaign chairman John Podesta.”
-- Stone has brought on more lawyers to defend him, as Mueller’s team grills grand jury witnesses about their connections to him. ABC News’s Ali Dukakis reports: “Stone’s legal team [said] that last month their client voluntarily took two polygraph tests, which they claim will show Stone passing with flying colors on a spectrum of key issues covering areas of interest in the Mueller probe related to Stone.”
-- The special counsel’s office is asking the FBI to investigate claims that women were offered money in exchange for accusing Mueller of sexual misconduct. Devlin Barrett reports: “[Mueller’s] spokesman, Peter Carr, issued a statement saying that ‘when we learned last week of allegations that women were offered money to make false claims about the special counsel, we immediately referred the matter to the FBI for investigation.’ Carr’s statement comes as Jack Burkman, a conservative lobbyist, tweeted that Thursday he ‘will reveal the first of special counsel Robert Mueller’s sex assault victims. I applaud the courage and dignity and grace and strength of my client.’ Burkman gained notoriety when he promoted conspiracy theories regarding the still-unsolved killing in 2016 of Democratic National Committee staffer Seth Rich. Those theories have been disputed by law enforcement officials.
“The strange sequence of events began about two weeks ago, when an email account ostensibly belonging to a Florida woman began contacting reporters claiming that a mysterious individual had offered her money to say Mueller had behaved inappropriately when they worked together in the 1970s. The person sending the emails would not speak on the phone but claimed she was offered tens of thousands of dollars to say negative things about the special counsel … The person who has been emailing reporters over the past two weeks had said she was told that Burkman was behind the effort to pay those who made allegations against Mueller."
-- Right-wing Twitter personality Jacob Wohl appears to have also been involved in the hunt to dig up dirt on Mueller. The Daily Beast’s Lachlan Markay and Will Sommer report: “[Wohl] said Burkman had told him he had hired Matthew Cohen, who claims to be a managing partner at the private investigations company Surefire Intelligence, to assist with the investigation. In fact, it appears that Cohen is Wohl. Surefire is a bit of a mystery. Since-deleted Craigslist advertisements for the company said it ‘was founded by two members of Israel's elite intelligence community.’ The ads billed services including ‘counter intelligence,’ ‘private spies,’ and ‘ethical hackers.’ At least seven supposed employees of the company use fake headshots on their LinkedIn profiles. Talia Yaniv, whose page lists her as Surefire’s ‘Tel Aviv station chief,’ uses a photo of Israeli supermodel Bar Refaeli. The photo of Surefire’s ‘financial investigator’ is actually actor Christoph Waltz. The company’s ‘station chief’ in DC uses a photo of Sigourney Weaver’s husband. And its deputy director of operations ripped off a headshot from a Michigan pastor.”
THE IMMIGRATION WARS ESCALATE:
-- Constitutional experts and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) pushed back against Trump’s proposed executive order to end birthright citizenship. John Wagner, Josh Dawsey and Felicia Sonmez report: “[Ryan] dismissed the idea during a radio interview, saying it is not consistent with the 14th Amendment of the Constitution. ‘Well, you obviously cannot do that,’ Ryan said on WVLK in Kentucky. ‘You cannot end birthright citizenship with an executive order.’ Ryan also said that Republicans did not like it when President Barack Obama changed immigration policy by executive action and that altering the Constitution would be a lengthy process. Other Republicans said that while birthright citizenship for children of permanent residents is settled law, there is, as Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (Iowa) put it, ‘a debate among legal scholars about whether that right extends to the children of illegal immigrants.’ Grassley added that the issue is one on which Congress, rather than the president, should take the lead.
“The president often tells aides to craft executive orders — even when his authority is legally dubious. … The president’s lawyers and top advisers have questioned whether such a plan is legal, but it has gotten vociferous support from Stephen Miller, Trump’s top immigration adviser, who often channels the president’s impulses. ... Still, many White House officials — including Sarah Sanders, the press secretary — were startled when Trump promised such an order Monday evening in the Axios interview ... The idea had not been under active consideration in recent days ... There were some discussions Tuesday in the West Wing about whether there is any legal standing to limit birthright citizenship. But most officials hope the issue ‘just goes away,’ a White House official said. … People close to the White House Counsel’s Office were taken aback by Trump’s comments about their own operation’s supposed guidance, since their leadership is in transition and major immigration initiatives have not been in the works, according to one person briefed on internal discussions.”
-- The legal consensus on the right and left is that it would take a constitutional amendment to end birthright citizenship. Robert Barnes reports: “The first section of the [14th] amendment says: ‘All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.’ Some legal scholars argue that the phrase ‘and subject to the jurisdiction thereof’ seems to give the government some leeway to restrict the right, just as other constitutional principles can be limited. But the mainstream opinion from both right and left is that it is more likely that a constitutional amendment, rather than federal legislation or an executive order, would be needed to change the birthright conferred on people born here.”
-- George Conway, who is married to senior White House adviser Kellyanne Conway, wrote a Post op-ed dismissing Trump’s proposal as unconstitutional. Conway and Neal Katyal, former acting solicitor general in the Obama administration, write: “Sometimes the Constitution’s text is plain as day and bars what politicians seek to do. That’s the case with [Trump’s] proposal to end ‘birthright citizenship’ through an executive order. Such a move would be unconstitutional and would certainly be challenged. And the challengers would undoubtedly win.”
-- Some Pentagon officials fear the deployment of U.S. troops to the southern border could politicize the military one week before the midterms. Paul Sonne, Dan Lamothe and Missy Ryan report: “Defense officials have sought to characterize the operation — believed to be the largest deployment of active-duty troops to the U.S. border in a century — as routine support for the Department of Homeland Security. But the mission could jeopardize [Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’s] effort to shield the military from the political divisions gripping the country as questions persist about the size and timing of the deployment and the use of active-duty troops instead of the National Guard.”
PITTSBURGH FALLOUT:
-- The first funerals were held for the victims of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting. Gabriel Pogrund, Kayla Epstein and Steve Hendrix report: “Mourners gathered early for the day’s two funerals, one at a synagogue and the other at a theater, with both sites struggling to accommodate the turnout. … The crowd quickly overflowed the 1,400-seat Rodef Shalom temple, leaving many to stand between pews for the combined service of David Rosenthal and Cecil Rosenthal, brothers who lay side by side in wooden caskets. … At the funeral of Jerry Rabinowitz, an ebullient, bow-tie-loving physician, those who couldn’t squeeze into the Jewish Community Center’s Henry Kaufman theater filled an overflow area equipped with a video feed.”
-- Meanwhile, Trump’s visit to Pittsburgh was met with protests. Seung Min Kim, Josh Dawsey and Mark Berman report: “The hastily planned day trip — which the city’s mayor urged Trump not to make — was executed with no advance public itinerary and without congressional and local politicians. Some had declined to accompany the president, and others were not invited. Trump did not speak publicly during his brief trip, instead quietly paying tribute at Tree of Life synagogue by laying flowers for the 11 victims and visiting a hospital to see officers who were wounded in Saturday’s shooting. … As the president touched down in southwestern Pennsylvania on Tuesday, almost 2,000 demonstrators assembled not far from where some of the shooting’s victims had been buried that day.”
-- The family of one victim declined to meet with Trump, citing his suggestion after the shooting that the synagogue should have had an armed guard. Stephen Halle, the nephew of victim Daniel Stein, called Trump’s comments “inappropriate.” “He was blaming the community,” Halle said. (Moriah Balingit, Avi Selk and Mark Berman)
DIVIDED AMERICA:
-- Trump’s focus on immigration in the final days of the midterm elections have turned the campaign into a referendum on American identity. Matt Viser reports: “Trump’s sharpened tone creates potential complications for some Republican candidates, particularly those in centrist suburban House districts where many GOP voters have grown uneasy about the president, as Trump embarks on a final week of nearly nonstop rallies where immigration is likely to be a frequent topic. … While Republicans have long criticized Democrats for emphasizing ‘identity politics’ in their courtship of ethnic minorities to win elections, Trump is now taking steps seemingly designed to mobilize his heavily white base. And with the past week’s violence coming after three years of warnings from critics that Trump was stoking racism, his unwillingness to tone down his nationalist appeals is reviving concerns about his closing strategy.”
-- Trump’s birthright citizenship proposal underscores how he has used every lever of his power to try to get Republican voters to the polls next week. From Ashley Parker and Philip Rucker: “Trump is mobilizing the vast powers of the military and other parts of the federal government to help bolster Republican election efforts, using the office of the presidency in an attempt to dictate the campaigns’ closing themes and stoke the fears and anxieties of his supporters ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections. … The cumulative acts reflect the extent to which Trump has transformed parts of the federal bureaucracy into a factory of threats, directives and actions — an outgrowth of a campaign strategy which the president and his political advisers settled on as their best chance to hold the Republican congressional majorities.”
-- Trump’s final midterm pitch seems based on a strategy of “throwing almost anything he can think of against the wall to see what might stick,” the New York Times's Peter Baker writes. “Frustrated that other topics — like last week’s spate of mail bombs — came to dominate the news, the president has sought to seize back the national stage in the last stretch of the campaign. Ad hoc though they may be, Mr. Trump’s red-meat ideas have come to shape the conversation and, he hopes, may galvanize otherwise complacent conservative voters to turn out on Tuesday. But he risks motivating opponents, as well, and he has put even some of his fellow Republicans on the spot as they are forced to take a position on issues they were not expecting to have to address.”
-- Prominent Republicans, including U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who condemned Trump’s divisive rhetoric during the 2016 campaign now routinely decline to do so. Sean Sullivan reports: “In the summer of 2016, [Haley] warned that if [then-candidate Trump] did not change his rhetoric, the consequences could be deadly. ‘I know what that rhetoric can do,’ Haley told the Associated Press weeks before the anniversary of a racially driven massacre at an African American church in her home state of South Carolina. ‘I saw it happen.’ This week, [Haley] spoke out after another mass killing, at a Pittsburgh synagogue. Her message: Don’t blame the president.”
-- Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) is facing more pushback for his ties to white nationalists. The Des Moines Register’s William Petroski reports: “[King] was rebuked Tuesday by two Iowa Jewish leaders, disavowed by a prominent national Republican leader and abandoned by the National Republican Congressional Committee. In addition, three major U.S. companies announced they will no longer donate campaign money to King.”
-- Vice President Pence declined to endorse House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as the next speaker if Republicans retain control of the chamber. John Wagner reports: “[Pence added] the decision should be left to members of the chamber. Pence was asked about McCarthy, considered the front-runner if Republicans maintain control of the House, during an interview with Politico Playbook. ‘I support having a Republican speaker of the House,’ Pence offered, eliciting laughter from a live audience. Pressed, he said he considers [McCarthy] to be ‘an outstanding leader.’ But, Pence added, ‘there are also others who’ve expressed an interest in that.’”
-- A Republican campaign mailer depicting a Jewish candidate for Connecticut state Senate clutching cash and grinning widely was widely denounced as anti-Semitic. Eli Rosenberg reports: “The advertisement, which was sent out by Republican Ed Charamut’s campaign, depicts his challenger, Democratic state Rep. Matthew Lesser … The mailer drew wide outrage after it was reported on Tuesday … [Lesser] said that his likeness had been photoshopped significantly in the mailer, raising further questions about his opponent’s aim. In addition to the hands grabbing $100 bills that were added to the picture, Lesser’s face has been altered with a smile and a crooked look in his eyes, he said.”

Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation has become a flash point in the Minnesota Senate race between Sen. Tina Smith (D), left, and Republican state Sen. Karin Housley, right. (Star Tribune via AP)

THE KAVANAUGH EFFECT:
-- Republicans continue to use Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh’s contentious confirmation process as a rallying cry. Elise Viebeck and Robert Barnes report: “Trump has extolled Kavanaugh at events for GOP candidates in Kentucky, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has seized on Kavanaugh’s confirmation battle as he crisscrosses the country for GOP Senate candidates such as incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (Nev.), Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale and Rep. Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.). ... The issue has also come up in Senate debates in North Dakota, Minnesota, Arizona and Missouri, where Attorney General Josh Hawley portrayed Sen. Claire McCaskill as one of the Democrats who had 'laid in wait to try to ruin [Kavanaugh] and his family.' McCaskill voted against Kavanaugh, but she is not a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee that held hearings on his nomination. She said that she ‘did not participate in the chaos around the Kavanaugh confirmation.’”
-- But some Republicans say anger over Kavanaugh’s confirmation process has dissipated at the grass-roots level, which they fear could depress turnout. Bloomberg News’s Shannon Pettypiece and Jennifer Jacobs report: “After last week’s mail-bomb scare and synagogue shooting, [Trump’s] approval rating fell, potentially jeopardizing key Senate races that his allies thought had turned his party’s way. … The stories have diverted attention from issues Trump had sought to focus on, namely immigration, and given his opposition an opening to attack the president for his divisive rhetoric.”
-- The Minnesota Senate race between Democrat Tina Smith and Republican Karin Housley is being dominated by a debate over the #MeToo movement. Julie Zauzmer reports: “The politics of [the movement] are inescapable for the two [candidates]. That’s not just because [former Minnesota senator Al Franken] stepped down — a decision with which some state Democrats still disagree. It’s also because the state attorney general’s race has been upended by an abuse accusation from an ex-girlfriend of the Democratic nominee, Rep. Keith Ellison. And because Housley has criticized the treatment of [Kavanaugh] over a decades-old assault accusation … Smith and Housley are both trying to avoid being dragged down by the alleged misdeeds of men in their own party — and are accusing each other of being women who don’t sufficiently support women.”

President Trump talks to Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) on Oct. 15 as the president arrives to tour storm damage from Hurricane Michael. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

MORE ON THE MIDTERMS:
-- Florida governor and Senate candidate Rick Scott is facing criticism from some of his fellow Republicans over his environmental record. Darryl Fears and Lori Rozsa report: “Forget about a blue wave. Scott is dealing with red tide — a gigantic outbreak of toxic algae that has bedeviled this part of the Gulf Coast for more than a year. Although polls had earlier shown Scott locked in a dead heat with incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson, the governor is behind. His environmental record threatens to cost Republicans what had been seen as a prime opportunity to pad the GOP majority in the U.S. Senate. … The governor is being taunted as ‘Red Tide Rick,’ and some Floridians have made him the butt of jokes on social media, contrasting the state’s beautiful beaches with the dead fish littering its shores.”
-- Republicans urged Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) to cancel a campaign event with a congressional candidate who admitted to hitting his ex-wife 45 years ago. David Weigel reports: “Hours after Clyburn announced an ‘election eve fish fry’ for Parnell, the National Republican Congressional Committee called on the third-ranking House Democrat to cancel his appearance with an ‘admitted domestic abuser’ and issue an apology. ‘Congressman Clyburn’s actions aren’t just hypocritical, they’re disgusting,’ NRCC spokesman Matt Gorman said in a statement Tuesday night.”
-- Some Native American leaders in North Dakota hope a new voter ID law may actually fuel turnout in their community. The New York Times’s Maggie Astor reports: “[U]nder a law the Supreme Court allowed to take effect this month, North Dakotans cannot vote without a residential address. Post office boxes, which many Native Americans rely on, aren’t enough anymore. … Native Americans, noting that state officials have not confirmed any pattern of fraud, see it as an attempt at voter suppression. But in these final days before the election, their tribal governments are working feverishly to provide the necessary identification, and some Native Americans believe their anger could actually fuel higher turnout. … If that happens, it will be because of a considerable expenditure of time and resources on the part of the tribes and advocacy groups supporting them.”
-- So much for that Taylor Swift endorsement: GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn leads former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen by five points in the Tennessee Senate race, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll. NBC News’s Carrie Dann reports: “The poll shows Blackburn with the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared with 46 percent support for Bredesen. Among all registered voters, her advantage narrows to 49 percent to 46 percent. … Blackburn’s standing has improved since a previous NBC/Marist poll of Tennessee released in early September, when Bredesen led 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters.”
-- A number of White House staffers are expected to leave for roles with Trump’s reelection campaign shortly after the midterms. Politico’s Alex Isenstadt reports: “[S]enior Trump aides Bill Stepien, the director of political affairs, and Justin Clark, who oversees the office of public liaison, are expected to take senior roles with the reelection effort, according to two people with knowledge of the plans. Both are heavily involved in the run-up to the midterms and had top positions on Trump’s 2016 campaign. The list is almost certain to grow.”

-- Idaho’s outgoing Republican governor cut an ad endorsing a ballot initiative to expand Medicaid in his state. Colby Itkowitz reports: “The question of whether to grow the low-income health-care program to cover more people is on ballots in three deep-red states — Idaho, Utah and Nebraska — where conservative legislatures didn’t choose expansion. Gov. C.L. ‘Butch’ Otter, a conservative with an independent streak, announced his support and cut an ad for Idahoans for Healthcare, an organization advocating for expansion.”
-- “12 Young People on Why They Probably Won’t Vote,” from New York magazine: “More than half of American adults plan to cast ballots in November, but only a third of people ages 18 to 29 say they will. Here, 12 young adults on why they probably won’t vote.”
-- Independent gubernatorial candidate Greg Orman’s campaign treasurer resigned and endorsed Democrat Laura Kelly in the Kansas governor's race. The Wichita Eagle’s Jonathan Shorman reports: “Tim Owens, a former Republican state senator, said it is time to unite behind Kelly, a Topeka state senator, in an effort to stop Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach. ‘I’ve been a friend and colleague to Greg Orman for several years. I supported his run for Senate in 2014 and until today I supported his run for governor. However, this is a critical election for Kansas. We cannot risk the future of our state,’ Owens said in a statement released by the Kelly campaign.”
-- Not a joke: An independent gubernatorial candidate in Vermont, Cris Ericson, is campaigning on her idea to host a television show where she'd pardon state prisoners based on whether a live studio audience cheers or boos. “If you elect me, I will host a governor’s pardon TV show every Saturday night and pardon a few of the people who violate the new, unconstitutional anti-gun laws, and some of the nonviolent offenders of other laws, to save Vermonters money,” Ericson told PBS. (Seven Days)
THE NEW WORLD ORDER:
-- Angela Merkel’s planned departure as German chancellor provides “a kind of vindication” for Trump and his foreign policy views, Anne Gearan and Griff Witte write. “When [Merkel] arrived at the White House in April, [Trump] was eager to sell her on a long-shot idea: She should push aside the European Union so the two could strike a trade deal of their own. … But Merkel refused, laughing along with Trump while telling him firmly that the road to any deal goes through Brussels and the centralized E.U. trade bloc Trump loathes. … As April’s Oval Office meeting illustrated, the two have represented competing visions for the future of the trans-Atlantic partnership, with the U.S. president pushing an-every-country-for-itself nationalist approach and the German leader staunchly defending the value of a united Europe and the collective institutions Trump resists.”
-- More than a year after unceremoniously ousting his predecessor, Prince Mohammed bin Salman now enjoys nearly absolute power in Saudi Arabia. Kevin Sullivan, Karen DeYoung, Souad Mekhennet and Kareem Fahim: “In doing so, Mohammed has replaced ‘cautious’ royal leadership with ‘impulsive interventionist politics,’ as one Western intelligence agency predicted in late 2015, warning that his rapid ascent would lead to trouble at home and abroad. The prescience of that three-year-old analysis, by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, appears borne out by events as Mohammed’s command has grown — an endless and seemingly futile war in Yemen, stubborn disputes and peremptory behavior toward neighbors and allies, and crackdowns on even the mildest forms of internal dissent.”
-- The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has heightened scrutiny of Saudi Arabia’s conduct in its war against Yemen. Sudarsan Raghavan reports: “In Saudi Arabia’s version of its war in neighboring Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition carefully chooses targets for its airstrikes. The rapidly rising civilian death counts reported by the United Nations and humanitarian groups are highly exaggerated. So are the accounts of an impending famine caused by war. And the coalition is in no way interfering with humanitarian aid or with assistance to Yemen’s beleaguered economy. But now that narrative is wearing thin, critics say.”
-- A group of Republican senators is urging the Trump administration to cut off nuclear talks with Saudi Arabia. NBC News’s Josh Lederman reports: “In a letter to [Trump], five senators say they had concerns about nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia even before Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. But they say his death has fueled further doubts about the kingdom’s leadership. … The senators threatened to use an obscure provision in the Atomic Energy Act to block any U.S.-Saudi nuclear agreements if Trump does not heed their call.”

• From The Post’s Editorial Board: “Jamal Khashoggi was brutally murdered four weeks ago. We’re still waiting for answers.”
  

-- Internal State Department memos reveal American diplomats are being instructed to pull back U.S. support from international sexual and reproductive health programs. Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer and Colum Lynch report: “New State Department directives … show how the Trump administration is instructing U.S. diplomats at the United Nations to push back on U.N. resolutions on women’s issues, outlining so-called red lines on language related to sexual health and sexual harassment. The memos underscore the growing influence under [Trump] of Christian social conservatives[.]”
SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:
Early vote tallies in many states have already far exceeded expectations, per a University of Florida professor who closely tracks the data:

11 states have exceeded *total* 2014 #earlyvote
DE, GA, IN, LA, MD, MN, NV, NC, TN, TX and VA
More tomorrow. We expect higher turnout since '14 was so low and some states have competition where '14 had none. But some of states are running near 2016 early vote levels. Remarkable

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 30, 2018

Kanye West announced he is stepping off the #MAGA train:

My eyes are now wide open and now realize I’ve been used to spread messages I don’t believe in. I am distancing myself from politics and completely focusing on being creative !!!

— ye (@kanyewest) October 30, 2018

The chairman of the House Republicans' campaign arm called out Rep. Steve King's connections to white nationalism:

Congressman Steve King’s recent comments, actions, and retweets are completely inappropriate. We must stand up against white supremacy and hate in all forms, and I strongly condemn this behavior.

— Steve Stivers (@RepSteveStivers) October 30, 2018

From an NBC News reporter:

Would add that Stivers — the chair of the NRCC — is doing this as King faces at least a plausible challenge in his district. It’s his job to elect Republicans.

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) October 30, 2018

King responded by attacking the NRCC as “Establishment Never Trumpers”:

King Response pic.twitter.com/H8iXI3cM1x

— Steve King (@SteveKingIA) October 30, 2018

King's Democratic opponent, still a big longshot, applauded Stivers's statement:

Last week I issued a challenge for at least one Republican elected official to condemn @SteveKingIA's recent behavior. I applaud @RepSteveStivers, Chair of the NRCC. Respect. #CountryOverParty https://t.co/KCKTBlEDhr

— J.D. Scholten (@Scholten4Iowa) October 30, 2018

Iowa's Democratic gubernatorial nominee Fred Hubbell, who could topple incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), lambasted his opponent for failing to admonish King, an issue that could play very well in the Des Moines suburbs:

Time and again we've seen Steve King spew hateful, divisive rhetoric while @KimReynoldsIA defends her campaign co-chair. She's been confronted by supporters, and even her own party leaders condemn his reprehensible actions. But the Governor continues to let him lead her campaign.

— Fred Hubbell (@FredHubbell) October 30, 2018

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) had an evasive reaction to the president's musings on birthright citizenship:

Ted Cruz today (per @dallasnews): "I would need to examine the legal arguments behind an executive order and I haven't seen those yet."https://t.co/PWS2Lz683g

— Emma Platoff (@emmaplatoff) October 30, 2018

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) addressed birthright citizenship:

I will be introducing legislation to deal with the issue of birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants -- in a prospective manner -- as I have always contended it has become a magnet for illegal immigration in modern times.

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) October 30, 2018

From a Post reporter:

Sen Graham is a longtime proponent of the Dream Act, for undocumented immigrants here since childhood. He also favors a legal solution for adults.
But American-born children of immigrants could end up being here illegally under his plan. https://t.co/OUTIG31ghV

— Maria Sacchetti (@mariasacchetti) October 31, 2018

From a House Republican:

We all know challenges of suburban R’s. The bloc of competitive R held districts less impacted by POTUS thus far are those w high # of immigrants. So now POTUS, out of nowhere, brings birthright citizenship up. Besides being basic tenet of America, it’s political malpractice.

— Ryan Costello (@RyanCostello) October 30, 2018

From a Republican Senate candidate in New Jersey:

The President is wrong to end #BirthrightCitizenship. I took an oath to defend the Constitution including the 14th Amendment. We’re a nation of immigrants made better by the diversity of its people, especially in NJ. We need compassionate comprehensive immigration reform now. -BH

— Bob Hugin (@BobHugin) October 30, 2018

From a National Review editor:

The Birthright EO will be a fascinating test for Trump boosters who insisted that Obama's unconstitutional EO on DACA was outrageous.

— Jonah Goldberg (@JonahNRO) October 30, 2018

A New York Times reporter commented on Trump's immigration proposals:

CLOSING ARGUMENT: Build tent cities for migrants. End birthright citizenship. Fear the caravan. Send active-duty troops to the border. Refuse asylum. If you ever doubted that immigration is the animating force of the @realDonaldTrump presidency, just look at the last few weeks.

— Michael D. Shear (@shearm) October 30, 2018

The mayor of Pittsburgh is offering special recognition of the Jewish community at his office:

The entrance to Mayor Bill Peduto’s office. pic.twitter.com/Z5Fh34wiCd

— Gabriel Pogrund (@Gabriel_Pogrund) October 30, 2018

The NRA attracted criticism for this tweet:

Another billionaire is pumping unlimited money into electing anti-gun lawmakers. Notorious anti-gunner George Soros joins anti-gun billionaires Steyer and Bloomberg. There is no end to how much they’ll pay to push their elitist agenda on Americans. https://t.co/jxFmnc802s

— NRA (@NRA) October 31, 2018

A Wired contributor and Mueller expert noted this of the unsubstantiated rumors about the special counsel:

I wrote Robert Mueller's biography, spent more time studying his history than anyone, and dug for any dirt I could find. I've *NEVER* heard even a whisper of women problems around Mueller. https://t.co/bSqkV4rPQr

— Garrett M. Graff (@vermontgmg) October 30, 2018

Ronan Farrow confirmed he passed on the Mueller story:

They did. https://t.co/7y3YvssaJK

— Ronan Farrow (@RonanFarrow) October 31, 2018

From Jeb Bush's former campaign spokesman:

It’s almost as if making up fake sexual assault allegations isn’t as easy as it sounds and women who come forward with credible allegations should be given the benefit of the doubt.
(PS POTUS has 19 accusers that he never gets asked about for some reason)

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) October 30, 2018

Fears about the U.S. debt are escalating. From the Wall Street Journal's Washington bureau chief:

Meanwhile: The Treasury is going to issue $1.338 trillion in new debt this year--that's trillion with a T--more than double the amount in 2017. https://t.co/vWrYzSM6K0 via @WSJ

— Gerald F Seib (@GeraldFSeib) October 30, 2018

From the Weekly Standard editor in chief:

It took the United States 193 years to accumulate its first trillion dollars of federal debt. We will add that much in the current fiscal year alone.https://t.co/XtBG5W4pPa

— Stephen Hayes (@stephenfhayes) October 30, 2018

A couple of Trump's endorsement tweets tagged the wrong handles:

Good reminder for all of us to check our work pic.twitter.com/8Dz9lpVxBS

— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) October 30, 2018

Just about everything in this tweet is wrong. Riggleman is not an incumbent, so he's not a congressman. He didn't help on tax cuts or the military or with vets (because he isn't in Congress), and that's also not his Twitter account pic.twitter.com/7GIRtyL6Is

— Josh Billinson (@jbillinson) October 30, 2018

Taylor Swift posted about voting for Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen in Tennessee:
And Ivanka Trump celebrated her birthday:
GOOD READS:
-- “Can pot save the pumpkin farm?” by Damian Paletta: “U.S. farmers last year harvested 2 billion pounds of pumpkins, many of which were later carved into spooky or silly faces for Halloween. The economics behind these Jack-o’-lanterns can be as messy as their gunky guts, though, with everything hanging on six weeks of sales. But these and other iconic American holiday symbols exist in an often overlooked economy with hidden pressures and pain. For California farmers[,] … the state’s legalization of marijuana has offered the prospect of raising a lucrative crop that could keep them on their land. They must first win the approval of their communities, and the debate dividing Half Moon Bay has also paralyzed other parts of the state.”
-- Vice News, “We posed as 100 Senators to run ads on Facebook. Facebook approved all of them,” by William Turton: “One of Facebook’s major efforts to add transparency to political advertisements is a required ‘Paid for by’ disclosure at the top of each ad supposedly telling users who is paying for political ads that show up in their news feeds. But on the eve of the 2018 midterm elections, a VICE News investigation found the ‘Paid for by’ feature is easily manipulated and appears to allow anyone to lie about who is paying for a political ad, or to pose as someone paying for the ad.”

HOT ON THE LEFT: “Steve Bannon makes personal appeal to Trump base at small Topeka rally,” from the Topeka Capital-Journal: “At an unpublicized micro-rally in North Topeka, Bannon told a small gathering that a New York Times poll showing Democrat Paul Davis with a four-point lead over Republican Steve Watkins [in their congressional race] was the catalyst for his spur-of-the-moment decision to fly to Kansas. … About 25 people attended the rally at the Holiday Inn Express on US-24 highway, including a small contingent of event organizers and individuals following Bannon for a documentary. People were notified midday by unsolicited texts that read: ‘Support Trump and MAGA! RED TIDE RISING RALLY with STEVE BANNON.’”

HOT ON THE RIGHT: “Barbra Streisand 'thinking' about moving to Canada if GOP keeps control of House,” from the Washington Examiner: “Singer-songwriter Barbra Streisand said she’s considering a move to Canada if Democrats are unable to retake control of the House in next week’s midterm elections. ‘I want to sleep nights, if we take the House I’ll be able to sleep a little bit better,’ she told the New York Times. If Democrats can’t retake the majority … she’s weighing a move. ‘I’ve been thinking about, do I want to move to Canada? I don’t know. I’m just so saddened by this thing happening to our country. It’s making me fat,’ she said. … ‘I would lie awake at night with Trump’s outrages running through my head,’ she said[.]”

DAYBOOK:
Trump will meet with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and attend an “Our Pledge to America’s Workers” event before traveling to a campaign rally in Estero, Fla.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: 
“I am sick and tired of this administration. I’m sick and tired of what’s going on. I’m sick and tired of being sick and tired, and I hope you are, too.” — Joe Biden speaking at a Wisconsin rally. (Felicia Sonmez)

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:
-- D.C. will get lucky with some beautiful fall weather for Halloween. The Capital Weather Gang forecasts: “Halloween sure is nice timing for a Nice Day stamp! We’ll see morning temperatures rise into the 50s and afternoon highs reach the upper 60s to near 70, helped by partly to mostly sunny skies and a light breeze from the south.”
-- The Wizards lost to the Grizzlies 107-95. (Candace Buckner)
-- University of Maryland President Wallace D. Loh announced he would retire at the end of the school year amid uproar over the death of a student football player Jordan McNair. Susan Svrluga, Nick Anderson and Ovetta Wiggins report: “Loh’s announcement struck many state lawmakers as exactly the wrong response to the athletic department’s woes. DJ Durkin, the football head coach who has been on administrative leave since Aug. 11, will return to the sideline, the school said Tuesday, while Loh will retire when his contract expires in June.”
-- D.C. Council candidate Dionne Reeder has continued to take in an impressive amount of money from Mayor Muriel Bowser’s donor network. Fenit Nirappil reports: “Reeder (I) raised $118,000 in 18 days, between Oct. 11 and Oct. 29, in her bid to unseat council member Elissa Silverman (I-At Large). About a third of those contributions are dated Oct. 24, when Bowser headlined a U Street fundraiser for Reeder. Silverman raised $71,000 in the same period.”
-- Bowser officially closed D.C. General, the megashelter for homeless families. The closure makes good on a campaign promise Bowser made in 2014 when first seeking the mayor’s office. (Fenit Nirappil)
VIDEOS OF THE DAY:
Nancy Pelosi firmly predicted Democrats would win the House:

Stephen Colbert called Trump a certain four-letter word in response to his birthright citizenship proposal:

TONIGHT: The president's immigration fear-mongering continues. #LSSC pic.twitter.com/RdgTuHsTPs

— The Late Show (@colbertlateshow) October 31, 2018

Trevor Noah mocked Fox News's coverage of the migrant caravan:

The anchors of “Fox & Friends” criticized Trump for his “enemy of the people” comments about the media:
Thousands of people lined the streets in Pittsburgh to pay their respects to shooting victim Jerry Rabinowitz: