The
emotional battle over sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court
nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh burst into the midterm elections after a
dramatic week of wrenching testimony and raw partisan rage on Capitol
Hill, tossing an explosive and sensitive issue into the final weeks of
the closely fought campaign for control of Congress.
Tight
races already hinging largely on how women feel about President Trump
have been further roiled by the emotional appearance Thursday by
Christine Blasey Ford and the anger-filled response from Kavanaugh.
The
issue is resonating in two distinct ways: It threatens to further erode
support for House Republicans already struggling to survive in centrist
suburban districts, while in Senate races it is giving GOP challengers
in pro-Trump states a chance to inspire previously unenthusiastic
conservatives.
In Indiana, for example, the
Republican challenger to Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, who announced
opposition to Kavanaugh following the testimony, released a video over
the weekend saying the effort to derail Kavanaugh “tells you how
Democrats roll” and calling it a “real eye-opener for folks across
Indiana” that Donnelly “takes his instructions from [Democratic leader]
Chuck Schumer.”
In heavily pro-Trump West
Virginia, where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III remains undecided on the
nomination, the president used a Saturday night campaign rally to laud
Kavanaugh’s “brilliant and really incredible character, quality and
courage.” In a nod to the pressure from both sides on Manchin, Trump
added: “A vote for Judge Kavanaugh is also a vote to reject the ruthless
and outrageous tactics of the Democrat Party.”
And
in Texas, the Democratic challenger in the 31st Congressional District
near Austin mentioned the Kavanaugh battle at a Saturday campaign event
as she told her story of how hard it was to come forward after she was
assaulted while serving in the military.

Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on Thursday. (From left to right: Melina Mara; Matt McClain/The Washington Post)
“Normally, I
say that these national-headline, political-pundit things aren’t what
people in this district pay attention to,” MJ Hegar said during an
appearance in Taylor, Tex. “This is an exception. Everywhere I went, I
saw people glued to TVs, like they’ve been when we’ve had serious crises
in this country.”
The controversy has splashed
over a midterm landscape that leaders of both parties have seen as
generally favorable for Democrats, with Trump’s unpopularity driving a
shift in some parts of the country, particularly suburbs, that voted for
Republicans in 2016. Polls had already shown that Kavanaugh was an
unusually unpopular Supreme Court nominee, though he has enjoyed
overwhelming support from Republicans.
How the
issue plays out in the Nov. 6 elections will depend on the drama that
will unfold in the coming week — including whether the FBI turns up any
new evidence in its probe and what happens if and when Kavanaugh’s
confirmation is put to a Senate vote. If centrist Republican Sens. Jeff
Flake of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
vote in favor, that could influence Democratic fence-sitters running in
conservative states, including Manchin and North Dakota’s Heidi
Heitkamp.
At stake, at least in the battle for
the Senate, is the power to block or affirm Trump’s Supreme Court
nominees — perhaps even the current one, if Kavanaugh is defeated and an
alternative cannot be confirmed before year’s end. Some House Democrats
have vowed that, if they win the majority, they would launch an
investigation of a Justice Kavanaugh, with impeachment as a potential
outcome.
What’s certain is that the emotional
and cultural debate about Kavanaugh and his accuser has already inflamed
the national divide over Trump, himself accused of sexual misconduct by
multiple women, that was already driving the cycle.
“It’s
too soon to know,” said Rep. Tom MacArthur, a vulnerable Republican
from suburban New Jersey who, like other incumbents in challenging
races, is trying to steer clear of the issue. “I don’t think anyone won
anything [Thursday]. I think it was an unfortunate day for America.”
The reverberations were apparent nationwide after the events unfolded on Capitol Hill.
Scores
of advocates for and against Kavanaugh lined up outside senators’
offices on Friday and jammed congressional phone lines and websites.
National campaign committees sought to take advantage by issuing urgent
calls for action with emails emblazoned with sirens and “donate”
buttons. Candidates issued statements and pressed their opponents to do
the same. And the issue spilled into the weekend at town halls, on
videos posted to the Web and on Twitter.
For
Republicans, the intensity surrounding the confirmation battle offers an
opportunity to fire up core voters who, according to recent polls, have
not been as enthusiastic as the Democratic base. If Kavanaugh’s
confirmation fails, that could further motivate conservative voters.
“I
just know for the first time there are signs of life,” said Glen
Bolger, a Republican campaign consultant advising in dozens of Senate,
House and gubernatorial races. “It is hard to motivate voters who aren’t
that motivated in a midterm elections. So to have an external event
like Kavanaugh to motivate them, that’s much better than relying on
campaigns to do it.”
Some Republicans have
skirted the issue of Ford’s credibility, instead focusing on accusing
Democrats of sitting on Ford’s allegations until the final days before a
Senate vote.
Kavanaugh himself adopted
partisan rhetoric more akin to a GOP campaign speech than a Supreme
Court nomination hearing when he said that opposition to him was based
on “apparent pent-up anger about President Trump and the 2016 election”
as well as a desire for “revenge on behalf of the Clintons and millions
of dollars in money from outside left-wing opposition groups.”
Other
GOP candidates in competitive races, including House incumbents
fighting a potential Democratic wave in moderate suburbs, are treading
more carefully.
Rep. Leonard Lance (R-N.J.),
facing a tough challenge in a district that Trump lost in 2016, said
Friday that he found both Kavanaugh and Ford credible. Rep. Martha
McSally (R-Ariz.), who is competing against Democratic Rep. Kyrsten
Sinema for the Senate seat of retiring Republican Jeff Flake, has
cautiously urged the Senate Judiciary Committee to “gather any
additional relevant facts, and then act on this nomination.” McSally
revealed earlier this year that she was sexually abused by a high school
coach.
Democrats, meanwhile, see a chance to
galvanize their voters to care about the Supreme Court as much as
conservatives typically do.
In 2016, Trump and
his GOP allies courted evangelicals heavily with his promise to put
conservatives on the bench, with a particular focus on filling the
vacancy created by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, a conservative
hero. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had held the seat
open, refusing to allow a vote on President Barack Obama’s nominee,
Merrick Garland.
Hovering over the Republicans’
complaints about delays in the Kavanaugh nomination have been cries of
hypocrisy from Democrats over how Garland was treated.
The
issue is even bubbling into the 2020 landscape, as Sen. Elizabeth
Warren (D-Mass.), said Saturday that the Kavanaugh controversy is one
reason she is seriously considering a presidential bid against Trump.
“I
watched powerful men helping a powerful man make it to an even more
powerful position and I thought, ‘Time’s up,’ ” she said at a town hall
in Holyoke, Mass. “It’s time for women to go to Washington and fix our
broken government, and that includes a woman at the top.”
Erica Werner, David Weigel, Anne Gearan, Aaron Blake and Cleve R. Wootson Jr. contributed to this report.
An earlier version of the story incorrectly stated that MJ Hegar is running in the 33rd District in Texas.