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Sep 17, 2018

Keiser Report Max Keiser Here comes another Crisis ten years later!

Kerryn Phelps: a liberal alternative or the voice of Wentworth voters' fury? | Australia news I The Guardian

Anne Davies

Kerryn Phelps, the newly minted high-profile independent candidate in Wentworth, faces a dilemma as she seeks to position herself in the once blue-ribbon seat.
Does she present herself as the more caring, liberal alternative to the Liberals, yet someone who will not rock the boat to the extent it could bring down the government?
Or does she pitch herself as the lightning rod for simmering voter anger over the unceremonious dumping of the former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, a firebrand of independence who will bring the major parties to account, even if that means triggering an election?
In her first major interview on Radio National on Monday, Phelps was feeling her way cautiously.
She said she had met “angry, frustrated and despairing Liberals who say this is just not good enough”.
“They and those from other parties are looking at the revolving door of politics and they want it done differently,” she said.
But if people are looking for Phelps to hold the major parties to account, her ability to trigger an election if she wins is also weapon in the hands of her opponents.
“She says she’s not destabilising, yet the single most destabilising thing a voter can do in Wentworth is vote for Kerryn,” said the Liberal party president, Nick Greiner. Voters will hear a lot of that in coming weeks.
On Radio National, Phelps promised not to block supply – currently academic as the next budget is not until May – adding that she had no intention of bringing down the government.
That raises the not-so-hypothetical question: how would she vote on a motion to refer the home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, to the high court over eligibility questions?
Voting with Labor could potentially bring down the government. Voting with the government arguably perpetuates “the shenanigans in Canberra” that Phelps highlights.
As for whether people voting for her should put the Liberals last, she explicitly ruled out directing preferences and pledged to leave it to voters to choose.
Instead Phelps’s pitch sounds like that of a classic independent: ensuring an independent voice on issues that matter to Wentworth, a government with heart that would put the brake on the hard-right agenda inside the Liberals.
Such pitches work in country seats where voters often feel ignored by Canberra. But Wentworth, which has hardly been left behind by the global economy, is entirely different. Will voters care more about the need for a local high school than they do about superannuation or tax policy?
Or would Phelps be better to explicitly acknowledge that if things don’t change in Canberra, she will be willing to exercise her unique position as the holder of the balance of power to let the people decide?
As the ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, points out, Phelps needs to peel at least a quarter of Turnbull’s vote away to ensure that Liberal rival Dave Sharma’s primary vote is pushed into the 40s. (Turnbull won 62% of the primary vote and 67% two-party preferred in 2016).
Then she needs the preferences of Labor and most of the independents.
She will require a well-oiled, on-the-ground machine, Green says.
Phelps told Guardian Australia she was being “inundated with offers from volunteers” and that she would be crowdsourcing funding but was currently underwriting her own campaign.
With the likelihood of a general election by May, just months after a byelection, that will take deep pockets and organisation.
The independent MP for Sydney, Alex Greenwich, a proven campaigner, has pledged his support for another independent, Licia Heath, a community activist who has a much lower profile than Phelps. She may take a slice of the angry voters, particularly women, though these will probably flow back to Phelps.
Phelps has the advantage of a strong brand thanks to her profile in the marriage equality debate, and in her local community, but she will be up against the Liberal machine in Wentworth, which will swing into high gear to defend a seat that has never voted anything but Liberal.
Although voters might be angry, the Liberal party in Wentworth is likely to close ranks given what is at stake.

Trump puts new tariffs on China as trade war escalates: CNBC I Breaking News

Jacob Pramuk

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a Congressional Medal of Honor Society reception at the East Room of the White House September 12, 2018 in Washington, DC. President hosted a reception to honor Medal of Honor recipients.  (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a Congressional Medal of Honor Society reception at the East Room of the White House September 12, 2018 in Washington, DC. President hosted a reception to honor Medal of Honor recipients. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump will impose 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, and those duties will rise to 25 percent at the end of the year.
The action, announced by the Trump administration Monday, escalates a trade conflict between the world's two largest economies. China has already threatened to retaliate against new trade barriers.
The White House removed about 300 goods from a previously proposed list of affected products, including smart watches, some chemicals and other products such as bicycle helmets and high chairs.
Trump, in a statement, said that the tariffs would rise to 25 percent on Jan. 1, 2019, adding that "if China takes retaliatory action against our farmers or other industries, we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports."
Trump has previously said that those additional duties are "ready to go on short notice if I want."
The action will only ratchet up tensions between Washington and Beijing. The president seeks a new trade agreement amid complaints about alleged theft of intellectual property by Chinese companies and concerns about the U.S. trade deficit with China. The two sides have failed to reach a deal to resolve the White House's concerns with China's trade practices despite a series of talks.
"We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly," Trump said in the statement.
"But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices."
The president has defended his tariff moves, despite mounting criticism from Republican lawmakers and potential political damage. On Monday morning, he tweeted: "Tariffs have put the U.S. in a very strong bargaining position, with Billions of Dollars, and Jobs, flowing into our Country - and yet cost increases have thus far been almost unnoticeable. If countries will not make fair deals with us, they will be 'Tariffed!'"
Donald Trump tweet
The White House has already levied tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese products. Beijing responded with measures targeting $50 billion on American goods, raising fears about damage to the American farm industry.
Some administration officials have pushed for additional talks with China as they try to ease tensions with the world's second largest economy. But Trump contended last week that the U.S. was under "no pressure" to reach an agreement.
Earlier Monday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Trump "has not been satisfied with the talks with China on this."
China's Foreign Ministry has said the government would hit back if the U.S. moved forward with tariffs.
Read Trump's full statement announcing the new tariffs below:
Today, following seven weeks of public notice, hearings, and extensive opportunities for comment, I directed the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to proceed with placing additional tariffs on roughly $200 billion of imports from China. The tariffs will take effect on September 24, 2018, and be set at a level of 10 percent until the end of the year. On January 1, the tariffs will rise to 25 percent. Further, if China takes retaliatory action against our farmers or other industries, we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports.
We are taking this action today as a result of the Section 301 process that the USTR has been leading for more than 12 months. After a thorough study, the USTR concluded that China is engaged in numerous unfair policies and practices relating to United States technology and intellectual property – such as forcing United States companies to transfer technology to Chinese counterparts. These practices plainly constitute a grave threat to the long-term health and prosperity of the United States economy.
­For months, we have urged China to change these unfair practices, and give fair and reciprocal treatment to American companies. We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly. But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices. To counter China's unfair practices, on June 15, I announced that the United States would impose tariffs of 25 percent on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. China, however, still refuses to change its practices – and indeed recently imposed new tariffs in an effort to hurt the United States economy.
As President, it is my duty to protect the interests of working men and women, farmers, ranchers, businesses, and our country itself. My Administration will not remain idle when those interests are under attack.
China has had many opportunities to fully address our concerns. Once again, I urge China's leaders to take swift action to end their country's unfair trade practices. Hopefully, this trade situation will be resolved, in the end, by myself and President Xi of China, for whom I have great respect and affection.

CGTN Video: Expert on impact of trade frictions on China-US ties

EU FX I Currencies: Dollar broadly weaker as trade concerns weigh I CNBC


The U.S. dollar slipped broadly on Monday as investors worried that Washington was set to announce a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods in the latest escalation of the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies.
The euro was 0.5 percent higher against the dollar at $1.1683, while the greenback also lost ground against the Swiss franc and the British pound. The dollar was slightly lower against the Japanese yen.
U.S. President Donald Trump was expected to announce new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods as early as Monday.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department invited senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier Liu He, to more talks on the tariff dispute, though skepticism remained high among trade observers on both sides over the prospects of a breakthrough.
The dollar, which has benefited from safe-haven flows as the trade conflict has worsened, was on the defensive on Monday.
"Trade war headlines have lost the power to shock currency traders at this point," said Karl Schamotta, director of global product and market strategy at Cambridge Global Payments in Toronto.
"At this moment we are seeing signs of increased tensions between the United States and China, but the reality is that Trump's negotiating room is becoming smaller by the day," he said.
"With midterm elections approaching, it is very unlikely Trump will be able to fully follow through on threats to really derail the Chinese economy," said Schamotta.
U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 6, when Democrats need to pick up 23 seats in the House of Representatives and two seats in the Senate to gain majorities in Congress as they look to slam the brakes on Trump's agenda.
Speculators in the FX market have begun unwinding some of their short bets against the euro and sterling , Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday, showed.
Speculators' net long U.S. dollar positions fell to an eight-week low.
"The market also seems inclined to lock in dollar gains made since the spring ahead of next week when the Federal Reserve meets and is expected to raise interest rates for the third time this year," Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington, said in a note. Emerging markets remained under pressure with MSCIs emerging market currency index down 0.19 percent, not far above a 15-month low hit last week.
The British pound rose, buoyed by reports of progress on the Irish border question, an obstacle to Brexit that diplomats will seek to overcome at a European Union summit later this week.

Bonds & Fixed Income Report: 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 3% amid trade tensions I CNBC

Thomas Franck, Alexandra Gibbs

Political concerns from recent sessions continue to rattle investors. Markets remained jittery Monday following media reports that President Donald Trump is preparing a fresh round of tariffs on around $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, which could start as soon as this week or today.
A senior administration official familiar with the matter went onto confirm with CNBC on Sunday that the U.S. administration was readying a fresh round of tariffs.
China's Foreign Ministry responded to the speculation Monday, stating that Beijing would retaliate in kind should the U.S. initiate fresh tariffs, Reuters reported. This comes just days after news emerged that the U.S. was seeking to reignite trade discussions with China.
Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow fostered those tensions Monday after he told CNBC's Becky Quick that Trump has "not been satisfied" with the trade talks with Beijing.
"The president has suggested tariffs on a couple $100 billion" in Chinese goods, Kudlow said. "He has not been satisfied with the talks with China on this. My guess is that an announcement will be coming soon."

Oil Price at Close Report: Oil dips as China-US trade tensions deepen, new tariffs due I CNBC


Oil prices edged lower on Monday as investors focused on deepening trade tension between the U.S. and China that is expected to dent global crude demand, but losses were limited as the market weighed potential supply tightening due to Iran sanctions.
Brent crude futures fell 11 cents to $77.99 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 8 cents to settle at $68.91 a barrel.
U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to announce new tariffs on about $200 billion on Chinese imports as early as Monday, a senior administration official told Reuters on Saturday.
U.S. stock indexes broadly fell on Monday, weighing on oil futures, on expectations that Trump would go ahead with the new tariffs and that Beijing would retaliate.
The trade dispute is raising concerns about the potential for slower growth in oil consumption, offsetting supply concerns stemming from the upcoming U.S. sanctions on Iran.
"The uncertainty surrounding the trade war is definitely something the market is concerned about in the short-term," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Sanctions affecting Iran's petroleum sector will come into force from Nov. 4. Iranian crude oil export loadings have declined by 580,000 barrels per day in the past three months, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said in a note to clients.
"We believe that the full effect of the Iranian oil sanctions has yet to be seen and we feel that the next 5-6 week anticipatory phase of the official sanctions will associate with steady speculative buying interest," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note.
Iran's oil exports have been falling in recent months as more buyers, including its second-largest buyer India, cut imports ahead of U.S. sanctions that take effect in November. Washington aims to cut Iran's oil exports down to zero to force Tehran to re-negotiate a nuclear deal.
Since spring when the Trump Administration said it would impose the sanctions, crude traders have priced in a risk premium reflecting the supply shortages that may occur when exports from Iran, the third-largest OPEC producer, are cut.
U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry told Reuters on Friday that he did not expect any price spikes and that Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia could between them raise global output in the next 18 months.
On Monday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said all possible scenarios for oil output could be discussed at a meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC states in Algeria this month.
State oil giant Saudi Aramco will spend more than 500 billion riyals ($133 billion) on oil and gas drilling over the next decade, a senior company executive said.

Gold Price at Close Report: Gold gains on sliding dollar, short-covering I CNBC


A softer dollar and short-covering lifted gold on Monday after two sessions of declines, but investors prepared for more weakness as simmering U.S.-China trade tensions suggested the currency would stay supported.
Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,200.51 an ounce after falling 0.6 percent on Friday, when it marked its third straight weekly decline. U.S. gold futures added 0.4 percent to $1,205.60 an ounce.
The dollar index was down 0.4 percent at 94.50 after seeing its biggest daily rise since Aug. 23 on Friday.
"Net short (speculative) positions in gold... are still at a high level at a good 75,000 contracts... so there is further potential for short covering and therefore for higher prices from this side," Commerzbank said in a note.
China's Foreign Ministry said on Monday that the government would respond if the United States implements new tariffs, ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's expected announcement of new duties on $200 billion in Chinese goods.
"The main issue is that this concern over trade tensions between the U.S. and China is translating into a stronger dollar, and that is weighing on gold," said Jonathan Butler, commodities analyst at Mitsubishi in London.
"I think we'll continue to see gold under pressure. As long as the dollar remains relatively well supported, yields continue to rise and the U.S. economic growth story remains in place, it's hard to see where a strong rally would come from in gold," Butler said.
Gold prices have declined more than 12 percent from April, hurt by intensifying global trade tensions and rising U.S. interest rates.
Though gold is generally presumed to be a safe-haven asset, the months-long trade rift between Washington and Beijing has prompted investors to largely opt for the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute.
Among other precious metals, spot silver climbed 0.9 percent to $14.17 an ounce.
Palladium rose 0.5 percent to $982.75 while platinum gained 0.4 percent to $794.95 an ounce.
Butler said although platinum last month touched a low of $751.25 not seen since the financial crisis in 2008, the supply and demand situation was different.
"Although we're looking at a market that's in a small surplus this year, it's still a very different story from 2008, it doesn't justify platinum having a $700 handle," he said.
"Diesel is in decline, but we still have a healthy 3 million ounces or so of demand from that source this year, as opposed to 2 or 2.5 million in 2008."

There’s nothing unusual about the timing of the Kavanaugh allegations I The Washington Post I Post Everything I Perspective

By Shan Wu , Shan Wu Bio Follow

Lawyers familiar with sexual assault cases know delays in reporting are common.

Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee in early September. (Alex Brandon/AP)
The Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to vote on Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court on Thursday. But as former prosecutors and a defense lawyer who collectively have decades of experience working on cases involving allegations of sexual assault, we believe the committee must review — with witnesses testifying under oath — the allegations that Kavanaugh assaulted a woman when they were in high school. Christine Blasey Ford’s specific, credible account more than meets the threshold under the Judiciary Committee’s rules for such a review. And in our experience, Ford’s delay in coming forward publicly with her allegations is consistent with a common pattern of survivors of sexual assault.
Ford told The Washington Post in a story published Sunday that Kavanaugh and a friend of his, both “stumbling drunk,” cornered her in a bedroom during a gathering when all of them were teenagers in Montgomery County, Md., and that Kavanaugh pinned her to a bed and tried to pull her bathing suit off. She escaped the room and fled the house, she said. Kavanaugh, in a statement issued last week, “categorically and unequivocally” denied the allegations.
The incident allegedly happened in the early 1980s. But trauma often causes delayed reporting of sexual assaults, which is well recognized now. Moreover, this is not a “new,” allegation, one made for the first time on the eve of Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Rather, The Post reported that Ford made previous disclosures to her husband and to a therapist years ago. Those disclosures also took place long after the alleged assault, but they were made at a time when Ford would have had no reason to fabricate the details.
Those prior disclosures also follow a common pattern with survivors in the gradual revelation of specificity and detail. Ford reportedly first told her husband that she had been the victim of a physical assault. Later, in therapy, she disclosed the sexual nature of the events. This step-by-step disclosure is common with survivors of sexual abuse, especially when the abuse occurred when the survivor was relatively young. Ford was 15 at the time of the alleged assault.
Those examining Ford’s account focused Sunday on possible gaps in her recollection. It is true that, for example, she recalls some specific details of the alleged assault itself — Kavanaugh’s hand allegedly covering her mouth, the other boy in the room laughing — more clearly than she did other details, such as the address of the party and time and date. But assault survivors often focus on very particular details of what happened to them rather than facts such as location and time. For example, in a landmark rape case two of us prosecuted, the survivor gave compelling testimony about how she remembered the smell of the defendant but was not clear on the exact time of day the attack occurred. (Her attacker pleaded guilty after hearing the testimony of the survivor.)
To the extent there are discrepancies in the record, they appear to be minor and not uncommon. Ford's therapist’s notes state that there were four boys “involved” rather than the two that Ford told her husband about. Ford now says that was an error on her therapist’s part while taking the notes, but either way, it’s reconcilable with Ford’s recollection that two boys — Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge — were in the room but a total of four boys were at the party. We often found that such minor errors were common even in the note-taking of trained law enforcement agents who know their work may be subject to review and cross-examination in criminal prosecutions. Indeed, in our collective experience, it is unusual for notes not to have such discrepancies. Particularly for a therapist — whose focus is on healing trauma, not stenography or pursuing criminal charges — this type of error while simultaneously listening, reacting and writing would not be uncommon.
Ford also passed a lie-detector test administered earlier this summer by a former FBI polygrapher. While it is true that polygraph results are not admissible in court, investigators and attorneys consider the results relevant in evaluating a person’s credibility. So does the federal government: Regular polygraphs are used as a part of security clearance arrangements in the intelligence community. Indeed, we have found that a person’s very willingness to undergo a polygraph often helps indicate their credibility.
When allegations of sexual harassment from years before came out against Justice Clarence Thomas during his confirmation hearing in 1991, they were addressed in a way that many do not consider sufficiently serious or respectful to the victim. That process has not aged well as the understanding of these issues has increased with time. It would be best not to rush into the same mistake now, at a time when we as a society should know better.
In considering the veracity of the allegations, we must also apply some scrutiny to Kavanaugh’s denial. His credibility must be assessed in light of whether he has been candid on other issues. That record is not irrelevant to the judgment that the Senate must now make about his credibility on Ford’s allegations.
Ford initially told Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, about the allegations earlier this summer. But until recent days, Ford wasn’t willing to discuss her account more publicly. At any rate, the matter is out now, and any delay in pushing the committee to act on the allegations is overshadowed by larger considerations. Supreme Court confirmation hearings need to get done right the first time because it is the only time. No mechanisms exist for appeals or do-overs outside of the extraordinary one of impeachment — not used against a Supreme Court justice in our history in over 200 years, and only once, unsuccessfully, before that.
Against the prospect of as long as 40 or even more years on the bench for the nominee, what is a short delay to have a fair process? Under the committee’s rules, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) has the power to convene hearings “as he may deem necessary.” Reassuring the country the allegations were taken seriously — and taking them seriously, including hearing from witnesses under oath — is necessary to maintain public confidence in the confirmation process and the person confirmed. Surely ascertaining the truth is in the interest of the Senate as well.
It is also in the interest of the victim, and that must not be ignored. Sexual assault survivors must cope with the trauma for the remainder of their lives. To all of them, to Ford in particular, and to our country, we owe a duty to take the time for full and careful investigation of these allegations before bestowing upon Kavanaugh a lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land.

NFA orders Chicago, Ill. introducing broker Global Asset Advisors LLC and its principal Glenn Swanson to jointly pay a $200,000 fine: NFA Notification


For more information contact:For Immediate Release
September 17, 2018
Christie Hillsman, 312-781-1497,
Karen Wuertz, 312-781-1335,
NFA orders Chicago, Ill. introducing broker Global Asset Advisors LLC and its principal Glenn Swanson to jointly pay a $200,000 fine
September 17, Chicago—NFA has ordered Chicago, Ill. introducing broker Global Asset Advisors LLC and its principal and associated person Glenn A. Swanson to jointly pay a $200,000 fine. NFA also ordered Global Asset Advisors' principal and associated person Kenneth S. Packard to pay a $35,000 fine.
The Decision, issued by NFA's Business Conduct Committee (BCC), is based on a Complaint issued by the BCC, and a settlement offer submitted by Global Asset Advisors, Swanson and Packard. The BCC found that Global Asset Advisors, Swanson and Packard failed to adequately supervise the firm's operations and its employees to monitor for, and detect, unusual allocation activity and to prevent violations of a Member Responsibility Action issued by NFA.

The complete text of the Complaint and Decision can be viewed on NFA's website.

Weekly National rates and rate caps update I FDIC.

On May 29, 2009, the FDIC Board of Directors approved a final rule making certain revisions to the interest rate restrictions applicable to less than well capitalized institutions under Part 337.6 of the FDIC Rules and Regulations. The final rule redefined the "national rate" as a simple average of rates paid by U.S. depository institutions as calculated by the FDIC. The national rates and rate caps for various deposit maturities and sizes are provided below.
For more information. see Financial Institution Letter FIL-25-2009
Rates updated September 17, 2018

Non-Jumbo Deposits (< $100,000)

Deposit Products National Rate 1 Rate Cap 2
Savings 0.08 0.83
Interest Checking 0.05 0.80
Money Market 0.14 0.89
1 month CD 0.10 0.85
3 month CD 0.16 0.91
6 month CD 0.26 1.01
12 month CD 0.45 1.20
24 month CD 0.64 1.39
36 month CD 0.79 1.54
48 month CD 0.90 1.65
60 month CD 1.11 1.86

Jumbo Deposits (≥ $100,000)

Deposit Products National Rate 1 Rate Cap 2
Savings 0.08 0.83
Interest Checking 0.05 0.80
Money Market 0.22 0.97
1 month CD 0.11 0.86
3 month CD 0.18 0.93
6 month CD 0.29 1.04
12 month CD 0.49 1.24
24 month CD 0.70 1.45
36 month CD 0.85 1.60
48 month CD 0.96 1.71
60 month CD 1.14 1.89
The FDIC began posting the National Rate and Rate Cap on May 18, 2009. Data is not available prior to May 18, 2009. This historical data can be accessed at Previous Rates
1 National rates are calculated based on a simple average of rates paid (uses annual percentage yield) by all insured depository institutions and branches for which data are available. Data used to calculate the national rates are gathered by RateWatch. Savings and interest checking account rates are based on the $2,500 product tier while money market and certificate of deposit are based on the $10,000 and $100,000 product tiers for non-jumbo and jumbo accounts, respectively. Account types and maturities published in these tables are those most commonly offered by the banks and branches for which we have data - no fewer than 45,000 locations and as many as 81,000 locations reported. The deposit rates of credit unions are not included in the calculation.

2 The rate cap is determined by adding 75 basis points to the national rate. To determine conformance with the regulation, compare rates offered by the institution, based on size and maturity of the deposit, to the rate caps. For accounts less than $100,000 use the applicable rate cap under the non-jumbo column, and for accounts $100,000 and over, use the rate caps under the jumbo column. Interpolation should be used for deposits with maturities not listed above.

Corrected: Europe ends on a muted note as fresh tariff threats linger; H&M shares climb 16.6%

Ryan Browne, Sam Meredith, Alexandra Gibbs

European stocks were pointing in different directions by Monday's close, as renewed fears over an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China capped gains in the region.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 finished up 0.12 percent, with the majority of the region's sectors moving higher by the close. On the bourses front, however, markets showed a different picture.
The U.K.'s FTSE 100 closed down 0.03 percent, the French CAC 40 fell 0.07 percent, while the German DAX slipped 0.23 percent. In the periphery, markets were mostly positive.
FTSE FTSE 7302.10 -1.94 -0.03% 631581369
DAX DAX 12096.41 -27.92 -0.23% 71412356
CAC CAC 5348.87 -3.70 -0.07% 68218938
IBEX 35 --- --- --- --- --- ---
Europe's retail stocks were among some of the best performers Monday, closing up 0.95 percent amid earnings news.
Sweden's H&M led the gains, surging to the top of the European benchmark after reporting better-than-expected earnings over the third quarter. The world's second-largest retailer said efforts to compete with online sellers and budget brands were now starting to pay off. Its shares climbed, ending the day up 16.63 percent.
Looking at individual stocks, Groupe Casino soared over 7.5 percent after some banks granted its debt-laden parent company, Rallye, an additional 500 million euro ($582 million) credit line, Reuters reported.
At the other end, recruitment consultancy Hays tumbled over 2 percent, after HSBC cut its stock recommendation to "hold" from "buy." The bank said Hays "must do better" to justify a premium valuation.
Meanwhile, Britain's GVC Holdings slipped 3.5 percent, after Barclays cut its target price for the stock.

Trade war

On Wall Street, stocks came under pressure amid heightened worries over a trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. Tech stocks and chipmakers, in particular, came under pressure, as concerns that they might get hit by tariffs weighed on sentiment. This impacted European tech stocks, which dropped 0.78 percent as a sector Monday.
Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, as President Donald Trump's administration readies a new round of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, which is expected to be announced as early as this week.
The tariff level is expected to be around 10 percent, according to the Wall Street Journal, far below the 25 percent the White House had said it was considering. The U.S. newspaper also suggested Beijing could cancel proposed trade talks with Washington, if the Trump administration moves ahead with fresh charges.
In data, euro zone annual inflation slowed slightly to 2 percent in August, the EU statistic's office said Monday, confirming an earlier estimate. The reading showed headline inflation had marginally slowed from 2.1 percent in July.
Meanwhile, in Britain, Prime Minister Theresa May told the BBC she is willing to pull the U.K. out of the European Union without a deal if it does not agree to her Brexit plan. Separately on Monday, the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said negotiations between the EU and the U.K. were being conducted in a "spirit of good cooperation." Sterling leaped up against the dollar on Monday, hitting a six-week high of $1.3150 during trade.
But the International Monetary Fund on Monday raised concerns over Brexit, warning that any outcome was likely to result in financial adversity for the British economy, and said any "no deal" scenario would be much worse.

South African unions sign three-year contract with Anglo Gold: GATA I THE GATA DISPATCH

Submitted by cpowell on 02:25PM ET Monday, September 17, 2018. Section: Daily Dispatches By Paul Burkhardt
Bloomberg News
Monday, September 17, 2018
Labor groups representing more than 60 percent of workers at AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., a major South African gold producer, signed a three-year wage deal with the company.
The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union, UASA, and Solidarity unions said they accepted the deal today. The sides agreed to raise pay by 6.5 percent for the first year and increases at the same rate or inflation -- whichever is higher -- for each of the following two years, Solidarity General Secretary Gideon du Plessis said in a statement. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

IMF chief highlights recession risk of no-deal Brexit | Business I The Guardian

Richard Partington

The UK economy would rapidly start to contract in the event of a disruptive exit from the EU next spring, according to a stark International Monetary Fund report that highlights the recession risks of a no-deal Brexit.
Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, added that there would be costs to the UK under any outcome that involves leaving the EU.
Expressing the IMF’s growing concern at the possibility of an acrimonious divorce next March, Lagarde said: “If that happened there would be dire consequences. It would inevitably have consequences in terms of reduced growth, an increase in the [budget] deficit and a depreciation of the currency.
“In relatively short order it would mean a reduction in the size of the economy.”
Lagarde said the IMF’s forecast of 1.5% growth next year was based on a smooth exit from the EU. Her remarks were seized upon by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, as evidence that the UK had to strike a deal that would safeguard jobs and prosperity.
“As the IMF has said, no-deal would be extremely costly for the UK as it would be for the EU,”Hammond said. “Despite contingency planning, it would put at risk the significant progress made over the past 10 years in repairing the economy.”
The IMF’s warning came in the preliminary findings of its annual health check of the UK economy. The Washington-based organisation will flesh out precise details of the size of a UK recession in the event of a disorderly Brexit when it publishes the final report in November.
Speaking at a press conference at the Treasury, Lagarde took issue with Brexit supporters who have said the UK would thrive if it left the EU without a deal and then traded on World Trade Organization terms.
“Our projections assume a timely agreement with the EU on a broad free trade pact and a relatively smooth Brexit process after that. A more disruptive departure will have a much worse outcome. Let me be clear: compared with today’s smooth single market, all the likely Brexit scenarios will have costs for the UK economy, and to a lesser extent for the EU, as well. The larger the impediments to trade in the new relationship, the costlier it will be. This should be obvious, but it seems that sometimes it is not.”
The IMF came in for criticism from pro-leavers after delivering a number of warnings about the consequences of Brexit in advance of the EU referendum in June 2016.
Lagarde said the impact of the vote had been to slow the economy, adding that it would have been better had the passion surrounding the Brexit debate been devoted to curing the UK’s productivity deficit with other leading economies.
Asked if she saw anything positive coming out of Brexit, Lagarde said: “I see a lot of negatives. If all the uncertainties were removed it would be better. It is bad for the economy to have this amount of uncertainty.”
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The IMF’s latest contribution to the Brexit debate came at a time when Theresa May has been battling leading Eurosceptics over her Chequers proposals, warning that her plan for a deal with Brussels is the only option. She told the BBC on Monday it was either her deal, or no deal.
Lagarde said that progress had been made in preparing the UK for life outside the EU. “Nevertheless, the range of issues that remains to be addressed is daunting, and the time left to accomplish them may be very short.” Ideally, she added, the transition period would be longer than the 20 months agreed between London and Brussels.
The IMF said UK growth has already dropped and business investment has been lower than would be expected since the EU referendum two years ago.
Over time, new trade agreements with countries outside the EU could eventually reduce some of the losses for the UK, it said, adding: “However, such agreements are unlikely to bring sufficient benefits to offset the costs imposed by leaving the EU.”

4 Ways to Avoid Big Losses in the Next Recession: JPMorgan I Investopedia News

Mark Kolakowski

Based on a comprehensive study of decades of market history, JPMorgan has developed a detailed guide for how investors can ride out the next recession, Business Insider reports. With the so-called Great Recession of 2007–09 now a decade behind us, and the onset of the next economic downturn becoming increasingly imminent, JPMorgan recommends that investors start planning on defensive portfolio shifts. However, the firm believes that a recession is unlikely to begin within the next 12 months, and warns that making big defensive shifts more than a year ahead of a recession can be costly. Nonetheless, John Normand, JPMorgan's head of cross-asset fundamental strategy, says, "But given the possibility of an earlier turn based on concerns about valuation or liquidity, there is some wisdom in averaging out of these exposures progressively each quarter even during a robust expansion." (For more, see also: 7 Ways to Invest in a Bear Market.)

JPMorgan's Recession Equity Strategy

Source: Business Insider


A key matter of concern for Normand is high valuations, with both trailing P/E and forward P/E ratios above their levels during the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. As a result, any hint of an impending economic downturn could send share prices tumbling, and the likelihood of a liquidity crunch could exacerbate the fall. He indicates that, once these fears start to arise, bonds could start outperforming stocks more than a year before an actual recession begins, ahead of the usual schedule dictated by history.
4 Areas to Avoid Big Losses
Source: Business Insider


Normand warns that corporate debt is at record levels in the U.S. and some emerging markets, while the quality of so-called high grade (or investment grade) corporate debt is at record lows in the U.S. and Europe. He advises that investors go underweight in both high grade and high yield corporate bonds, shifting their debt holdings toward government bonds instead. He also suggests going underweight in European debt and overweight in cash.


Investors should be overweight in gold, but neutral or underweight in oil and base metals. While OPEC normally cuts production late in the business cycle to boost prices, JPMorgan expects that they will do the opposite in 2019, to help the oil market recover from its crash in 2014. Rising output in the U.S. is contributing to a glut, and thus oil may become a short selling opportunity in the second half of 2019. (For more, see also: Why Stocks Are in a Hidden Bear Market.)


In light of their forecast of declining oil prices, JPMorgan believes that demand for other commodities will weaken. As a result, they suggest shorting the currencies of emerging market countries that are heavily dependent on exports of commodities, starting in the first half of 2019. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen tends to strengthen during periods of market turbulence, with a historic success rate of 50%, so investors also should go long on the yen at the same time.

'Meltdown Scenario'

David Tice, the longtime manager of the Prudent Bear Fund before selling it to Federated Investors in 2008, is among a growing chorus of investment professionals who are becoming increasingly nervous about the market and the economy. "We're getting closer to a meltdown scenario," he told CNBC, adding, "I'm worried about whether the economy could enter a recession faster than a lot of people think." He's particularly concerned that stock markets and currencies in emerging markets have been tumbling, which may be a prelude to a U.S. downturn. Contrary to most predictions, he foresees a global trend towards deflation, rather than inflation.
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Stocks making the biggest move premarket: DWDP, AXP, BBBY, LULU, TSLA & more I CBBC

Peter Schacknow

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:
DowDupont – CEO Edward Breen will become executive chairman of the specialty products company resulting from DowDupont's planned split into three companies next year. That unit will take the DuPont name. It had been previously announced that current DowDupont executive Jim Fitterling will become CEO of Dow Chemical, the name DowDupont will take when the other two companies – to be known as DuPont and Corteva Agriscience – are separated.
American Express – The financial services giant was upgraded to "overweight" from "equal-weight" at Stephens, saying Amex is successfully increasing merchant engagement and driving payment volumes higher.
Bed Bath & Beyond – The household goods retailer's stock was upgraded to "market perform" from "underperform" at Raymond James, saying that sales results should reflect an improved consumer environment.
Lululemon – The athletic apparel maker's stock was upgraded to "outperform" from "market perform" at Wells Fargo, which said the company's momentum is likely sustainable well into 2019.
Tesla – Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the automaker was in "delivery logistics hell," but added that the company was making rapid progress and that the issue should be "solved shortly."
Meredith Corp. – Meredith sold its Time media brand to Marc and Lynne Benioff for $190 million. The Benioffs are purchasing Time personally and the deal is unrelated to, where Marc Benioff is chairman and co-chief executive.
Campbell Soup – Campbell and activist hedge fund Third Point filed separate preliminary proxy materials urging shareholders to vote for two completely different board nominee slates. Third Point has criticized the food maker's current board and management for failing to implement moves to improve the company's performance.
Teva Pharmaceutical – Teva's migraine drug Ajovy was approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Teva said the drug should be available in about two weeks.
Unilever – Unilever's ninth largest shareholder, Aviva Investors, will vote against the consumer goods giant's plan to move its headquarters to the Netherlands, according to the Financial Times.
Tronc – Tronc is in early stage talks to be acquired by rival newspaper publisher McClatchy, according to sources quoted by the Chicago Tribune. Tronc owns the Tribune, the Los Angeles Times, and other major newspapers. New York investment firm Donerail Group has been in talks to buy Tronc since early August, with sources saying that Donerail has offered between $19 and $20 per share. – Amazon is investigating suspected data leaks and bribes of its employees, according to The Wall Street Journal. Such moves can give an edge to independent merchants who sell their products on Amazon. Separately, a Citi analyst report suggests that Amazon could announce in the coming years that it will split its retail and Amazon Web Services businesses.
Fiat Chrysler – The automaker is looking at other potential buyers for its Magneti Marelli parts unit, according to a Bloomberg report, after viewing a bid by KKR as too low.