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Sep 19, 2018

Bonds & Fixed Income Report: 2-year Treasury yield hits 2008 highs as Gundlach watches for 'game changer'

Thomas Franck, Alexandra Gibbs

The latest uptick in interest rates caught the attention of bond guru Jeff Gundlach. The founder of DoubleLine Capital said in a tweet Tuesday that he is paying attention to technical levels in the 10-year and the 30-year yield as a sign this move up in rates is not yet another head fake.
"Yields: On the march! 10's above 3% again, this time without financial media concern," he wrote. "Watch 3.25% on 30's. Two closes above = game changer."
Investors continue to monitor trade rifts between the U.S. and China. On Monday, Washington announced that it would inflict 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, which would rise to 25 percent by year-end.
The news sparked retaliation from Beijing on Tuesday, which announced levies that would target over 5,000 American products — worth $60 billion — that would go into effect next week on September 24, according to Reuters.
China's commerce ministry announced Tuesday that it had filed a complaint to the World Trade Organization about the U.S.' latest round of tariffs. At a World Economic Forum conference in Tianjin, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the Asian nation was confronted with "a host of difficulties and challenges" when it came to keeping the economy stable.
While some traders have cited the tariffs and trade concerns as inflationary and a culprit for higher rates, others have pointed to the Federal Reserve.
"The explanations we've heard lean heavily on the notion that growth, a hawkish Fed, risk-assets, and supply have created an underlying bearishness that is evidenced by moves such as those seen on Tuesday," said BMO Capital's Ian Lyngen. "For our part, the move doesn't change our medium-term inversion call and, if anything, provides more attractive placement for resetting flatteners."

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