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Dec 14, 2016

FRB Press Release - December 14, 2016: G.17 - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

www.federalreserve.gov


Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in November after edging up 0.1 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output moved down 0.1 percent, and mining posted a gain of 1.1 percent. The index for utilities dropped 4.4 percent, as warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced the demand for heating. At 103.9 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in November was 0.6 percent lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.4 percentage point in November to 75.0 percent, a rate that is 5.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2015) average.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary

Seasonally adjusted
Industrial production 2012=100 Percent change
2016 2016 Nov. '15 to
Nov. '16
June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[p] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[p]
       
Total index 104.2 104.5 104.5 104.2 104.3 103.9 .5 .3 -.1 -.2 .1 -.4 -.6
Previous estimates 104.2 104.6 104.5 104.2 104.3   .5 .4 -.1 -.2 .0    
       
Major market groups
Final Products 101.0 101.0 101.1 101.0 100.9 100.6 .6 .0 .1 -.2 -.1 -.3 .4
Consumer goods 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.0 103.9 103.4 .7 .1 .2 -.2 -.1 -.5 .8
Business equipment 102.6 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.0 101.8 .6 .0 -.5 -.2 .1 -.3 .2
Nonindustrial supplies 105.0 105.6 104.9 105.5 105.3 105.3 -.1 .6 -.7 .6 -.2 .0 -.7
Construction 108.4 109.3 107.9 108.8 109.7 110.4 -.8 .8 -1.2 .8 .8 .7 .7
Materials 106.5 107.0 106.9 106.4 106.7 105.9 .7 .5 .0 -.5 .3 -.7 -1.5
       
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below) 103.0 103.3 102.8 102.9 103.2 103.2 .2 .3 -.5 .2 .3 -.1 .1
Previous estimates 103.0 103.4 102.8 103.0 103.2   .3 .3 -.5 .2 .2    
Mining 103.7 104.4 104.4 104.2 106.2 107.4 -.1 .7 .0 -.1 1.9 1.1 -4.6
Utilities 104.8 105.1 108.1 105.1 102.2 97.7 2.9 .3 2.8 -2.7 -2.8 -4.4 -1.9
Capacity utilization Percent of capacity Capacity
growth
Average
1972-
2015
1988-
89
high
1990-
91
low
1994-
95
high

2009
low

2015
Nov.
   
2016 Nov. '15 to
Nov. '16
June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[p]
       
Total industry 80.0 85.3 78.8 85.0 66.7 75.7 75.4 75.7 75.6 75.4 75.4 75.0 .4
Previous estimates             75.4 75.7 75.6 75.4 75.3    
       
Manufacturing (see note below) 78.5 85.6 77.3 84.6 63.8 75.3 75.0 75.1 74.7 74.8 74.9 74.8 .7
Previous estimates             75.0 75.2 74.7 74.8 74.9    
Mining 87.3 86.2 83.8 88.6 79.0 79.2 74.3 75.1 75.3 75.4 77.1 78.2 -3.4
Utilities 85.8 93.2 84.7 93.2 78.2 76.4 80.0 80.2 82.5 80.1 77.9 74.4 .8
       
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 86.3 87.6 84.5 90.1 77.0 78.9 75.2 76.0 76.0 76.0 77.1 77.7 -2.5
Primary and semifinished 80.6 86.5 78.1 87.8 63.8 75.6 75.6 75.9 76.0 75.5 75.2 74.2 1.0
Finished 77.0 83.4 77.3 80.6 66.6 74.9 75.2 75.2 74.9 75.0 75.1 75.1 .7
r Revised. p Preliminary.
Market Groups
The output of consumer goods decreased 0.5 percent in November. The production of consumer durables dropped 1.6 percent, with all of its major components recording decreases. Both consumer durables and its largest major category, automotive products, posted their first declines since May. The index for consumer non-energy nondurables increased 0.6 percent in November; its only major component to register a decline was paper products. The output of consumer energy products fell 4.5 percent, as an increase in consumer fuels was outweighed by a drop in residential utilities. Although information processing equipment posted a gain, decreases for transit equipment and for industrial and other equipment caused the index for business equipment to decline 0.3 percent. The output of defense and space equipment rose 0.8 percent. Construction supplies recorded an increase of 0.7 percent, and business supplies recorded a loss of 0.3 percent. The production of materials moved down 0.7 percent: Both energy materials and durable materials posted declines, whereas the output of nondurable materials inched up.
Industry Groups
Manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent in November and was just 0.1 percent above its level of a year earlier. In November, the production of durables decreased 0.3 percent, the production of nondurables rose 0.3 percent, and the production of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 0.7 percent. Among the major durable goods industries, primary metals recorded the largest gain, 2.3 percent, and motor vehicles and parts registered the largest drop, also 2.3 percent. Among nondurables, petroleum and coal products recorded the biggest increase, 3.3 percent, and a decrease of 1.4 percent for plastics and rubber products was the biggest loss.
The index for mining advanced 1.1 percent in November. Most mining industries posted increases, with coal being the notable exception. The output at coal mines dropped 6.8 percent in November after having climbed nearly 60 percent between its April trough and October. Nevertheless, the index in November remained about 18 percent below its level in late 2014.
Capacity utilization for manufacturing edged down 0.1 percentage point in November to 74.8 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run average. The operating rate for durables dropped to 75.9 percent, the rate for nondurables moved up to 74.7 percent, and the rate for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell to 60.0 percent. Utilization for mining jumped 1.1 percentage points to 78.2 percent; even so, it remained 9.1 percentage points below its long-run average. The rate for utilities fell 3.5 percentage points to 74.4 percent.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization


The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization around the end of the first quarter of 2017. New annual benchmark data for 2015 for manufacturing will be incorporated, as will other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels). The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.
Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2016 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.
Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

G.17 Release Tables:

Summary: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Chart 1: Industrial Production, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization
Chart 2: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Chart 3: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, High Technology Industries
Table 1: Industrial Production: Market and Industry Groups (percent change)
Table 2: Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail (percent change)
Table 3: Motor Vehicle Assemblies
Table 4: Industrial Production Indexes: Market and Industry Group Summary
Table 5: Industrial Production Indexes: Special Aggregates
Table 6: Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
Table 7: Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities
Table 8: Industrial Capacity: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities (percent change)
Table 9: Industrial Production: Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies
Table 10: Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups
Table 11: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry
Table 12: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing
Table 13: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Table 14: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
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Last update: December 14, 2016