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Jun 23, 2016

U.S. Stock Market Future Indications, by MarketWatch on June 23, 2016: Dow Futures Jump More Than 150 Points After Brexit Polls Point to " Stay" Vote

Sara Sjolin
Wall Street was set for an upbeat trading day on Thursday, as investors bet the U.K. will vote to remain in the European Union in the closely watched Brexit referendum.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMU6, +0.81%  rose 156 points, or 0.9%, to 17,844, while those for the S&P 500 index ESU6, +0.83%  gained 19.05 points, or 0.9%, to 2,095.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NQU6, +0.86%  climbed 42.50 points, or 1%, to 4,437.
The moves mark a comeback after a choppy session on Wednesday, when all three benchmarks erased gains and ended lower after a Brexit poll gave the “leave” camp a narrow lead.
But an Ipsos Mori phone poll released Thursday morning showed support for “remain” ahead, with 52% pro-EU versus 48% for a Brexit. A Populus online survey also put the “stay” camp ahead at 55%.
Earlier polls have shown a tight race between Brexiteers and the “stay” side. Bookmakers, however, see a less close race, gauging a 76% probability of a vote to remain in the EU.
Read: Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ rears up as Brexit vote approaches
Broadcasters will not be conducting their usual exit polls, so investors will likely have to wait for the actual results to trickle out overnight and during the morning London time. The final result is expected around breakfast time in the U.K., or some time around 2-3 a.m. Eastern Time.
Read: When will we know the result of the Brexit vote?
“The implications of the EU referendum for financial markets cannot be underestimated,” said Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at stockbroker Interactive Investor, in a note.
U.K. heads to polls in EU referendum
Voters headed to the polls on Thursday to vote on whether the country should stay in or leave the European Union.
”Polls tell us it’s too close to call, but the hot money is most definitely on the status quo and another rally to end the week,” he added.
“However, even if ‘remain’ wins, the party may not last. It’s only a matter of time before investors remember lackluster global economic growth, the slowdown in China and threat of Donald Trump making it to the White House,” Wild said.
Stocks in Europe rallied as voters headed to the polls, while Asia closed mixed. The pound GBPUSD, +1.2172%  touched a 2016 high at $1.4947 after the Ipsos-Mori poll pointed to a “stay” win.
The dollar was lower against most other major currencies, with the ICE dollar index DXY, -0.35% down 0.5% to 93.229.
Oil prices CLQ6, +1.57%  moved higher, while gold GCQ6, -0.32%  declined.
Other economic news: Weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, and they are forecast to show a drop in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week.
The Chicago Fed national index for May also comes out at that time, followed by the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for June at 9:45 a.m. Eastern.
New-home sales and leading indicators — both for May — are due at 10 a.m. Eastern
After the markets close, Dallas Federal Reserve President Rob Kaplan will give a speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University in New York, at 7 p.m. Eastern.
Movers and shakers: Shares of Red Hat Inc. RHT, -0.80%  dropped 5.5% premarket after the software company late Wednesday gave a downbeat guidance for the year.
Shares of Bank of America Corp. BAC, -0.07%  rose 2.1% ahead of the bell after sources said the bank is moving closer to settle a case with U.S. regulators.
Barnes & Noble Inc. BKS, -7.03%  could also be active after the bookstore late Wednesday said its loss widened during the final quarter of its fiscal year.
Accenture PLC ACN, -0.33%  climbed 0.7% before the market open after the business consulting company beat fiscal third-quarter revenue expectations, while matching profit forecasts.
Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA, -10.45%  lost 0.8% as investors continue to react to its explanation for its surprise SolarCity Corp. SCTY, +3.26%  bid.
BlackBerry Ltd. BBRY, -4.40%  rose 0.2% ahead of the bell, shaking off weak earnings results.
Cloud communications company Twilio TWLO, +0.00% priced its IPO above the expected range.
Finish Line Inc. FINL, -0.29%  is among other companies on the earnings docket ahead of the open, while Sonic Corp.’s SONC, +1.30%  results are expected after the close.