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Jun 20, 2016

Donald Trump's June Stumbles Mirror Those of Mitt Romney, by Maggie Haberman: NYT First Draft on Politics - June 20, 2016

Monday, June 20, 2016

The New York Times »

The New York Times

Monday, June 20, 2016

Donald J. Trump before a campaign rally in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Donald J. Trump before a campaign rally in Las Vegas on Saturday. David Becker/Reuters
Donald Trump’s June Stumbles Mirror Those of Mitt Romney

In the 2012 presidential campaign, June was a pivotal month for President Obama’s re-election efforts. Mitt Romney had emerged from a slashing primary race close to broke, looking to get to the nominating convention so he could reset his candidacy and get an infusion of cash.
While there is little that is similar between the candidacies of Mr. Romney and Donald J. Trump, the result may end up being the same.
Mr. Romney was defined by a brutal series of television ads aired by both Priorities USA, the “super PAC” supporting Mr. Obama, and his campaign. Mr. Romney, in those renderings, was a heartless corporate raider who talked about liking to fire people who did not provide good services, and whose private equity firm feasted on the modest-wage jobs of hard-working people.
Mr. Romney never recovered. But he was still only a few ticks behind Mr. Obama in the polls in June 2012. In the last week of June that year, Mr. Obama was at 47 percent, with Mr. Romney at 44 percent, according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey.
Mr. Trump has insisted the race between him and Hillary Clinton is roughly that close. But several credible national surveys have shown Mr. Trump’s poll numbers sinking sharply in the wake of his criticism of an Indiana-born federal judge as “Mexican” in early June. Three surveys have shown Mrs. Clinton with a double-digit lead.
At the same time, Mr. Trump is off the air in terms of paid advertising. He has not aired a single ad since he became the presumptive Republican nominee on May 3. The Republican National Committee is not on the air helping him, and neither are any super PACs to any surgical degree.
By contrast, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has an advertising buy in battleground states that exceeds $20 million. And Priorities USA, which was reconstituted to support her candidacy, is spending more than $10 million of its own in a number of states.
Mr. Trump informed NBC on Sunday that he did not believe the race would begin until after the Republican convention on July 18. But he might be limping into Cleveland by then.

  Hillary Clinton with Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey in January in Iowa. Mr. Booker is among a number of ambitious Democrats jockeying to become Mrs. Clinton’s running mate.
Doug Mills/The New York Times
The Clinton campaign is searching for a charismatic Democrat who can click with, but not outshine, its candidate. Auditions have already started.

Lauren Fowkes and Ashley Roti cheered during a speech by Nina Turner, a former Ohio state senator, at The People’s Summit in Chicago on Saturday. Ms. Turner, who supports Senator Bernie Sanders, urged people not to allow the Democratic Party to return to “business as usual.”
Kelly Wenzel for The New York Times
At an event called “The People’s Summit” in Chicago, Mr. Sanders’s backers discussed their plans to carry on his message and their intentions for the general election.
Supporters held signs as they waited for Donald J. Trump to speak on Saturday at the Treasure Island Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas.
John Locher/Associated Press
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee portrayed an embrace of the tactic as “common sense.”
Roy Cohn in Manhattan in 1982. Mr. Cohn, who made his reputation as a prosecutor in the Rosenberg espionage case and as an aide to Senator Joseph McCarthy, was Mr. Trump’s lawyer for 13 years.
Ron Galella/WireImage
Roy Cohn, the red-baiting Senate adviser and fearsome lawyer, counseled a young Mr. Trump for many years, nurturing a style of bluster and smears.
Supporters held signs as they waited for Donald J. Trump to speak on Saturday at the Treasure Island Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas.
Senate Set to Consider Gun Proposals Seen as Unlikely to Pass
There is little optimism that the two parties can come to an agreement on the issue despite the killings in Orlando, Fla.
Campaigners gathered in Hyde Park in London on Sunday to make the case for Britain leaving the European Union or remaining within the bloc.
Donald Trump Says He Would Support Britain Leaving the E.U.
Mr. Trump, citing “a lot less bureaucracy,” gave his opinion ahead of Thursday’s vote and a scheduled trip to the United Kingdom.
In Case You Missed It
Donald J. Trump left the stage after a speech in Manchester, N.H., on Monday. The Republican presidential candidate has vowed that he would block immigration from regions with a “proven history of terrorism.”
Damon Winter/The New York Times
Immigration experts agree that while the president has the power to order a ban, it would prompt retaliation against American citizens abroad.
Senator Bernie Sanders in May. Mr. Sanders made the expansion of Social Security a major theme of his campaign.
Sam Hodgson for The New York Times
The Democrats’ proposals would amount to the biggest changes in Social Security since 1983, when the program faced a financial crisis.