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Jan 11, 2014

Evidence of gold shortage grows, Kaye tells KWN: GATA | THE GATA DISPATCH January 11, 2014.

Evidence of gold shortage grows, Kaye tells KWN

7:45p ET Saturday, January 11, 2014
Evidence grows, Hong Kong fund manager William Kaye tells King World News today, that gold is in increasingly short supply for the central banks that are trying to suppress its price:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Weekend Wisdom From ZACKS January 11, 2014.

ZACKS Weekend Wisdom
How to Avoid a Falling Knife
By: Todd Bunton
January 11, 2014

We've all been there. A stock plummets in price and looks tantalizingly cheap. Sure, analysts have been slashing their earnings estimates. But you believe the forward P/E and the growth rate still look attractive. So you jump in, thinking the price can't possibly go any lower.

But then you watch in frustration day after day as those earnings estimates - and the stock price - keep coming down... and down... and down. Soon you realize that you've just been cut by a falling knife.

Let’s first discuss...

How to Avoid the Falling Knife Stocks

Step 1: Don't buy stocks with falling earnings estimates.

Step 2: Read step 1 again.

You see, no matter how "cheap" you think these stocks might look, the odds are strongly against you. But don't just stop there. Not only will earnings estimate revisions help you avoid those dreaded falling knives, it will provide you with an excellent timeliness indicator so you know precisely when to jump into a stock. By utilizing the power of earnings estimate revisions, you can become a much better value investor.

The Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions

Our re search here at Zacks has shown that earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices. Stocks with rising earnings estimates have significantly outperformed the market year after year, while stocks with falling earnings estimates have underperformed the market.

Why is this?

Think about what a stock represents: ownership in a business. And the intrinsic value of a business is the present value of all future earnings. So if earnings estimates rise, then the value of that business rises. On the other hand, if earnings estimates fall, then so does its intrinsic value.

It's also important to note that stocks with positive earnings estimate revisions are more likely to receive additional upward estimate revisions in the future. And stocks with negative revisions are more likely to receive further negative revisions in the future. The reason for this is because many analysts will revise their earnings estimates slow ly and incrementally.

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In other words, the best way to spot a potential falling knife is to look at the direction of earnings estimate revisions. If they are trending lower, then get out of the way!

A good example of this is with Tesla Motors (TSLA). Shares of TSLA soared throughout the summer of 2013 as earnings estimates surged higher. But estimates began to drop just as the stock was topping. Investors would have been wise to take their profits here because estimates kept moving lower over the next several weeks, and the stock plunged more than -40%. Shares have rebounded a bit since then as earnings estimates have leveled off.

Monitoring earnings estimate revisions can help you avoid some nasty losses. But...

How Do You know When to Jump Into These Stocks?

One of the most challenging aspects of value investing is timing. Let's say that you found a potential investment you like, and it looks cheap. When do you jump in? When it is trading at 8x earnings? 6x? 4x?

The answer to this is vitally important. If you buy at 8x thinking it has bottomed but the stock goes to 4x, then you've lost 50%.

Valuation is a great tool for investors, but it isn't a very good timeliness indicator.

That's the great thing about earnings estimate revisions: they make for excellent timeliness indicators. The astute investor can watch a stock's earnings estimate revisions and identify precisely when a company's prospects are beginning to improve. That's when you want to get it!

Waiting for earnings momentum to improve before buying a stock may not get you in at the very bottom, but you can still get in at a great price while substantially reducing your downside risk. This allows you to rationally "be greedy when others are fearful”.

The Bottom Line

If you want to avoid a falling knife, then avoid stocks with falling earnings estimates. Be patient, and wait for earnings momentum to turn around before jumping in. By utilizing the power of earnings estimate revisions, you can become a much better value investor as you will have timeliness on your side as well.

How to Get the Most Out of Those Revisions

If you have been predicting the ups and downs of the market well over the last few years, then stick with the strategies that are working for you. However, if you have a spotty track record, then likely you need some assistance in charting a course to better results.

We here at Zacks have done exceptionally well at calling the market direction and applying the Zacks Rank for a steady parade of winning recommendations.

In fact, most of our portfolios soared past 2013's very robust S&P 500 gain of +32.4%.

Which of them best fits you?

Today, we are offering a unique arrangement for you to find out. You can try our see-everything program and receive private email alerts with buys, sells and market commentary from all 13 of our portfolios for 30 days. Your cost? Only $1. And not one cent of further obligation. Get details on Zacks Ultimate. 

In this way, you can share the real-time trades of our Follow the Money portfolio that has nearly doubled the market through early detection of the best moves of institutional investors. You'll see breakout growth picks, long-term home run recommendations, international stocks with exceptional upsides to balance your U.S. holdings, value stocks, and much more.

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Good Investing,

Todd Bunton

Todd is our Income & Growth Strategist who is noted for adding the spark of Zacks Rank timeliness to value and growth criteria. Find out how to get his private recommendations and those of other Zacks experts. Learn more about Zacks Ultimate.

WSJ | Major indexes Closing January 10, 2014.

Major Indexes Closing
Major Indexes6:00 p.m. EST 01/10/14
DJ Transportation Average*7466.0386.411.17
DJ Utility Average*493.876.491.33
Nasdaq 100*3565.0812.510.35
S&P 500*1842.374.240.23
S&P 400 Mid-Cap*1349.099.070.68
S&P 600 Small-Cap*659.802.120.32
DJ Total Stock Market*19384.9960.300.31
NYSE Composite*10371.1345.390.44
NYSE Financial*6384.986.560.10
Russell 2000*1164.536.180.53
NYSE MKT Composite*2375.50-2.05-0.09
KBW Bank*70.77-0.25-0.35
PHLX Gold/Silver*87.052.843.37
PHLX Housing Sector*203.342.021.00
PHLX Oil Service*277.473.471.27
PHLX Semiconductor*533.702.210.42
See All Major U.S. Indexes
Markets Diary5:51 p.m. EST 01/10/14
New 52 Week High22118110
New 52 Week Low12153
Major World Indexes4:40 p.m. EST 01/10/14
Global Dow*2475.9814.650.60
DJ Global Index*312.711.900.61
DJ Global exUS*236.592.110.90
Stoxx Europe 50*2922.7410.660.37
UK: FTSE 100*6739.9448.600.73
Germany: DAX*9473.2451.630.55
Japan: Nikkei 225*15912.0631.730.20
Hong Kong: Hang Seng*22846.2558.920.26
See All Major World Indexes
Indexes may be real-time or delayed based on exchange requirements.

Sources: SIX Financial Information; WSJ Market Data Group

WSJ | Biggest Decliners Closing January 10, 2014.

Biggest Decliners Closing
Biggest Decliners
4:47 pm ET 01/10/2014
GSE Holding (GSE)709,046$1.39-0.67-32.52
Natural Resource Partners (NRP)4,094,31416.60-3.74-18.39
SYNNEX (SNX)688,40857.69-7.38-11.34
Select Medical Holdings (SEM)3,059,64010.56-0.84-7.37
Navios Maritime Holdings (NM)2,854,2859.01-0.68-7.02
Safe Bulkers (SB)1,255,2229.51-0.70-6.86
RadioShack (RSH)3,853,7772.12-0.15-6.61
Supervalu (SVU)6,948,4546.39-0.45-6.58
Frontline (FRO)3,868,2754.59-0.32-6.52
Barracuda Networks (CUDA)651,28836.47-2.53-6.49
Aeropostale (ARO)7,561,3578.43-0.54-6.02
Unisys (UIS)1,293,83531.74-2.00-5.93
Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM)4,147,65532.28-1.97-5.75
China New Borun (BORN)438,0662.78-0.16-5.44
Genco Shipping&Trading (GNK)2,209,9912.44-0.14-5.43
Alcoa (AA)73,216,17610.11-0.58-5.43
PennyMac Financial Services Cl A (PFSI)148,57317.35-0.97-5.29
Hill International (HIL)39,4514.02-0.22-5.19
Roundys (RNDY)1,151,3679.06-0.49-5.13
EverBank Financial (EVER)531,43918.04-0.87-4.60
Ethan Allen Interiors (ETH)427,43027.53-1.31-4.54
Banco de Chile ADS (BCH)38,66679.94-3.71-4.44
Noranda Aluminum Holding (NOR)712,7502.81-0.12-4.10
Noah Holdings ADS (NOAH)791,72015.07-0.64-4.07
China Yuchai International (CYD)175,53021.83-0.90-3.96
MannKind (MNKD)23,426,176$5.92-1.16-16.38
Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN)3,234,3792.88-0.55-16.03
Bazaarvoice (BV)2,797,0277.04-1.21-14.67
Sears Holdings (SHLD)10,601,03536.71-5.86-13.77
YRC Worldwide (YRCW)6,551,88313.58-2.09-13.34
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR)2,756,85665.77-7.98-10.82
USA Technologies (USAT)853,3242.14-0.22-9.32
Inteliquent (IQNT)898,04310.19-1.03-9.18
Ambarella (AMBA)4,257,96829.31-2.86-8.89
VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Silver Inverse Index ER (DSLV)442,30147.63-4.47-8.58
Highpower International (HPJ)209,4962.89-0.26-8.25
BIND Therapeutics (BIND)373,32111.50-1.02-8.15
BTU International (BTUI)19,0642.97-0.26-8.05
PriceSmart (PSMT)771,74598.97-8.62-8.01
VelocityShares Emerging Asia DR ETF (ASDR)138,74653.47-4.51-7.77
Control4 (CTRL)114,51619.00-1.56-7.59
Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)1,523,1166.54-0.51-7.23
Five Below (FIVE)5,019,79040.46-3.13-7.18
Axcelis Technologies (ACLS)2,049,8342.30-0.17-6.88
China Auto Logistics (CALI)149,3004.62-0.34-6.85
KEYW Holding (KEYW)645,40616.66-1.17-6.56
Bona Film Group ADS (BONA)273,9926.04-0.41-6.36
Globus Maritime (GLBS)36,8923.47-0.23-6.22
Old Second Bancorp (OSBC)45,8414.56-0.30-6.17
Nanosphere (NSPH)2,268,0612.50-0.16-6.02
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3X Shares (JDST)31,361$53.17-8.53-13.82
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST)3,440,50738.09-4.38-10.31
ProSharesUltraShortSilver (ZSL)322,56083.75-5.06-5.70
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x Shares (EDZ)862,86744.03-2.52-5.41
Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (YANG)43,44524.14-1.32-5.18
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY)7,884,81115.41-0.74-4.58
PowerShares DB 3x Short 25+ Year Treasury Bond Exchange Traded Note (SBND)81,3239.80-0.42-4.11
iPath US Treasury 10-year Bear ETN (DTYS)76,21630.98-1.24-3.85
Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3x Shares (RUSS)33,13012.79-0.51-3.83
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x Shares (DRV)27,12560.02-2.33-3.74
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped (BZQ)8,23486.89-3.26-3.62
ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury (TTT)122,53587.92-3.28-3.60
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (TMV)1,001,73567.51-2.41-3.45
ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 25 (FXP)401,00116.86-0.60-3.44
Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT)18,79514.10-0.50-3.42
ProShares UltraShort Utilities (SDP)13,64720.64-0.73-3.42
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV)214,43921.57-0.76-3.40
PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)255,0927.15-0.24-3.25
ProSharesUltraShortGold (GLL)103,99796.30-3.01-3.03
iPath US Treasury 5-Year Bear ETN (DFVS)31,84240.92-1.20-2.85
Direxion Daily Developed Markets Bear 3x Shares (DPK)4,18533.40-0.97-2.82
iPath US Treasury Long Bond Bear ETN (DLBS)69,81834.92-0.92-2.57
ProShares UltraShort Australian Dollar (CROC)8,60445.79-1.19-2.53
ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (SRS)168,99720.61-0.52-2.46
ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treas (TBT)6,286,13275.36-1.87-2.42
GSE Holding (GSE)709,046$1.39-0.67-32.52
Chelsea Therapeutics International (CHTP)18,890,7512.50-1.03-29.18
Natural Resource Partners (NRP)4,094,31416.60-3.74-18.39
MannKind (MNKD)23,426,1765.92-1.16-16.38
Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN)3,234,3792.88-0.55-16.03
Prospect Global Resources (PGRX)439,9192.78-0.50-15.24
Bazaarvoice (BV)2,797,0277.04-1.21-14.67
Sevcon (SEV)50,0697.13-1.15-13.90
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3X Shares (JDST)31,36153.17-8.53-13.82
Sears Holdings (SHLD)10,601,03536.71-5.86-13.77
YRC Worldwide (YRCW)6,551,88313.58-2.09-13.34
Andatee China Marine Fuel Services (AMCF)497,2041.79-0.26-12.68
SYNNEX (SNX)688,40857.69-7.38-11.34
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR)2,756,85665.77-7.98-10.82
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST)3,440,50738.09-4.38-10.31
USA Technologies (USAT)853,3242.14-0.22-9.32
Inteliquent (IQNT)898,04310.19-1.03-9.18
Adept Technology (ADEP)667,90915.02-1.51-9.13
Industrial Services of America (IDSA)62,7893.61-0.36-9.07
Ambarella (AMBA)4,257,96829.31-2.86-8.89
Neostem (NBS)983,7877.14-0.69-8.81
VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Silver Inverse Index ER (DSLV)442,30147.63-4.47-8.58
Levy Acquisition (LEVY)10,3009.60-0.89-8.48
Highpower International (HPJ)209,4962.89-0.26-8.25
BIND Therapeutics (BIND)373,32111.50-1.02-8.15
See All Decliners
Includes common, closed end funds, ETFs, ETNs and REITS with prior day close of $2 a share or higher, with volume of at least 2,000.
x - stock is trading ex-dividend
Source: WSJ Market Data Group