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Nov 17, 2013

NYT | Asian Morning Today's Headlines November 17, 2013: Business: Caught in a Revolving Door of Unemployment.

The New York Times
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Sunday, November 17, 2013


Top News

Editors' Picks
Doris Lessing spoke with reporters from her front porch in London after she won the 2007 Nobel Prize for Literature.

BOOKS

Doris Lessing, Novelist Who Won 2007 Nobel, Is Dead at 94

By HELEN T. VERONGOS

Ms. Lessing was an uninhibited and outspoken novelist who shattered convention, embarking on dizzying and at times stultifying literary experiments.
. Video  Video: Doris Lessing on the Nobel Prize
. An Appraisal: Tracing the Internal Tug of War at the Heart of Human Life (2007)

BOOKS

Heroes and Crusaders

By BILL KELLER

Doris Kearns Goodwin's "Bully Pulpit" is built around two relationships: one between the reformist politicians Theodore Roosevelt and William Howard Taft, and the other between power and the press.
World
Keith Bradsher Answers Readers' Questions on the Philippines

By KEITH BRADSHER

Mr. Bradsher, a Times reporter covering the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan, answered readers' questions about doing his job under difficult conditions and the relief efforts underway.
. Responding to a Typhoon on the Web
A technician from Russia's space agency at a monitor station that opened in Brazil.
A Russian GPS Using U.S. Soil Stirs Spy Fears

By MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT and ERIC SCHMITT

American spy agencies fear that allowing monitor stations in the United States for Russia's version of GPS could compromise American intelligence.
Cornelius Gurlitt shopping for groceries in Munich on November 8.
A Private Life Amid a Tainted Trove of Art

By ANDREW HIGGINS and KATRIN BENNHOLD

Cornelius Gurlitt, the reclusive son of a Nazi-era art dealer, told a German newsmagazine that the confiscation of some 1,280 masterworks from his home was more devastating than his sister's death.
For more world news, go to NYTimes.com/World
Business
Jenner Barrington-Ward says that she has been told,
Caught in a Revolving Door of Unemployment

By ANNIE LOWREY

Some economists fear that the long-term unemployment crisis affecting millions of Americans might be a permanent change, with far-reaching and damaging consequences.
Reporter on Unpublished Bloomberg Article Is Suspended

By EDWARD WONG and CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY

Following disputed news media reports that top Bloomberg editors had killed an article on China for political reasons, the organization suspended the reporter Michael Forsythe.
New Boeing Jet Pulls In $95 Billion in Orders

By CHRISTOPHER DREW

The flood of orders, including the sale of 225 of Boeing's new 777X jets, highlighted how the big money in aviation is shifting to the Middle East and Asia
For more business news, go to INYT.com/Business
Technology
Joy Laskar at his California home.
Reaching for Silicon Valley

By NICK WINGFIELD

Georgia Tech longed to build a start-up culture, but it says a professor took it too far. Three years later, he is battling the university in court.
. A List of Academic Innovators
Ross Ulbricht, a 29-year-old software engineer, was arrested by Federal agents and accused of being the

DISRUPTIONS

A Digital Underworld Cloaked in Anonymity

By NICK BILTON

Silk Road, a vast Internet black market, stands as a tabloid monument to old-fashioned vice and new-fashioned technology.
People evacuating after a storm hit the Puntland region of Somalia.
Growing Clamor About Inequities of Climate Crisis

By STEVEN LEE MYERS and NICHOLAS KULISH

The devastation in the Philippines has revived the debate over how to address the disproportionate effects of climate change on poorer countries, an issue that has gained momentum but faces daunting challenges.
. Graphic: Fossil-Fuel Emissions by Country | Video: The Future of Storms
Families sheltered inside the Tacloban City Convention Center on Friday.
Philippine Community Groups Fill Vacuum to Provide Aid After Typhoon

By AUSTIN RAMZY

In the parts of the nation where local governments' capacity to respond to the devastation was greatly diminished, religious and community groups have vastly expanded their roles.
A family in Guiuan outside a makeshift shelter they constructed after their home was destroyed.  The town bore the full brunt of Typhoon Haiyan.
Ravaged Philippine City Ponders a Grim Road Ahead

By ANDREW JACOBS

Guiuan escaped the deadly storm surge that hit Tacloban, but it was still devastated and faces an uncertain recovery despite the arrival of international aid.
. Relief Supplies Pour Into Philippines, but Remote Areas Still Suffer

Sports
Kieran Read got in for New Zealand's second score ahead of the tackle by Mike Brown of England.
New Zealand Keeps Perfect Season Intact

By HUW RICHARDS

When the All Blacks beat England, 30-22, on Saturday, they were challenged as they rarely have been in 12 previous matches in 2013.
Didier Zokora, right, and Ivory Coast spent the day trying to outrun Cisse Papis Demba and Senegal.
Running, Elephant-Style, to the World Cup

By ROB HUGHES

Ivory Coast did it the hard way in qualifying for the World Cup, subduing the younger and fitter Senegalese on neutral turf in Morocco.
For more sports news, go to INYT.com/Sports
U.S. News
Dissolvable filmstrips of buprenorphine

THE DOUBLE-EDGED DRUG

Addiction Treatment With a Dark Side

By DEBORAH SONTAG

High hopes for buprenorphine, an effective treatment for opioid addiction, have been tempered by a messy reality: health complications and deaths, unscrupulous doctors and a reputation as a street drug.
In 1999, the Braves' opening-day game against Philadelphia.
With Braves Set to Move, a Broader Look at Atlanta

By KIM SEVERSON

With the Atlanta Braves moving to the suburbs, a civic conversation is examining whether the change is a blow to the city or a signal of a new era for the region.
In Fracas on Health Coverage, Some Democrats Feel Exposed

By JONATHAN WEISMAN

The fumbled rollout of the health care law has forced candidates, including three congressional incumbents in New Hampshire, to balance their loyalty to the White House with the needs of an angry constituency.
. House Approves Bill That Allows Policy Renewals
. After Obama Meeting, Insurers Question Plan's Workability
For more U.S. news, go to NYTimes.com/US
Opinion

OPINION

You're So Self-Controlling

By MARIA KONNIKOVA

Is our sense of time, not our lack of willpower, the real issue?
Catherine Ashton, the European Union's foreign policy chief, and Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, before the start of talks over Iran's nuclear program.

GRAY MATTER

Don't Mess With My 'Sacred Values'

By FRANK ROSE

In negotiations, cash bargains aren't always acceptable.
A protester in Kiev last month showing support for former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who has been in prison since 2011.

EDITORIAL | SUNDAY OBSERVER

Waiting to See if Ukraine Tilts East or West

By SERGE SCHMEMANN

The European Union and Russia are pulling Ukraine in two directions, and the outcome may depend on the fate of a jailed former prime minister.
For more opinion, go to INYT.com/Opinion

RT America: Hacktivist Jeremy Hammond sentenced to 10 years in prison.

RT America RT America


Trade With Precision (TWR) November 17, 2013: This Week's Market Commentary Videos and Webinars.

from Trade With Precision - www.tradewithprecision.com

Watch this week's market commentary videos where Nick McDonald provides a market outlook for the week ahead on the Russell 2000 and US Equity Markets along with the US Dollar Index.
Also remember to register for this week's webinars:

The Critical Trading Errors runs on:
How To Become A Successful Trader runs on:

Zacks | Zim Weekly Update November 17, 2013: 4 Things That Could Bring The Market Down.



4 Things that Could Bring the Market Down

by Mitch Zacks, Senior Portfolio Manager



The Dow is at a record high. The S&P is not far behind. Technology stocks have been on a tear all year long with the Nasdaq up almost 30%. Last Friday, the September jobs number came in at 204,000 new jobs created despite the government shutdown, trouncing expectations. GDP came in way ahead of consensus at 2.8%. It seems like everything is in its right place, but something has to go wrong. It could be one of the following:

Forecasts are Wrong

At this point most economists and market forecasters believe GDP growth will pick up in 2014 and 2015. The consensus suggests it will accelerate to between 3-3.5%. The problem is the herd is often wrong and why being a contrarian can sometimes lead to outperformance. If GDP does not pick up steam next year, we may be in store for a large market decline as 2013 GDP has been rather sluggish. 

Companies have pretty much squeezed all they can from increased productivity and profit margins. In order for the market to continue its advance, we will need to see GDP growth increase to the consensus number which should increase earnings growth. The market has been rising due to expanding P/E multiples, but this is not sustainable. What we really need to see is an increase in earnings growth. The S&P 500 trailing 12-month multiple at the beginning of the year was at 14.1 and now is at 16.7. Roughly 80% of the market gain year-to-date is due to P/E expansion while only 20% is due to earnings growth. Market gains driven from P/E expansion just are not as sustainable as market gains that come from earnings growth. If we do not see a reversal of these numbers, we will most likely suffer a significant decline in share prices.

An Unexpected Tapering

2013 is the year of bad news is good news and good news is bad news. The third iteration of quantitative easing ( QE3 ) by the Federal Reserve has caused market participants to cheer bad news because it could signal the continuation of QE3. QE3 has already lasted longer than most expected as it was widely speculated the Fed would begin tapering its bond-buying program coming out of their September meeting. As it turns out, the Fed left the cheap money faucet on full blast and the stock market loved it. The stock market has learned to love bad news and dislike good news, because it might give the Fed reason to begin tapering. 

Eventually, the Fed will begin to taper QE3 and thus reduce the amount of available cheap money. With Janet Yellen most likely to be confirmed as the replacement of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, most believe we will not see tapering begin until March 2014 at the earliest. Yellen would not want her first action as Fed chair to derail the stock market, so she will probably wait. But what if she does not? The market should be able to handle tapering as long as it does not come too soon and shock investors. Yes, it could cause a long overdue correction, but that would be temporary and present a buying opportunity. However, if the punch bowl is taken away too soon and the subsequent economic data comes in worse than expected, it is possible we could see a decline in GDP growth and possibly a small recession. This would most likely extend any correction we see from the start of tapering. 

Conflict in the Middle East

We narrowly avoided military action against Syria earlier this year after their president, Bashar al Assad, used chemical weapons against his own people. President Obama, it seemed, was preparing some kind of military response to the actions of al-Assad. Russian President Vladimir Putin was able to broker a deal allowing the international community to take control of the stockpile of chemical weapons owned by Syria, thus avoiding any armed conflict. However, the story does not end there. There is still a civil war raging in Syria between armed rebels and the military of Syria. In this region of the world, it is not a leap of faith to think this could still turn into a larger conflict with other countries, including the U.S., becoming involved and turning it into an international crisis. 

The whole region as a whole is never too far from conflict. Any increase in tensions between Israel and Iran or Palestine is always a cause for concern. If tensions in this region turned into a sustained military conflict, it would almost certainly cause the market to decline. I do not mean to sound callous, but it is my job to look at how events might affect the stock market. Escalating tensions in this part of the world would be a negative for everyone involved, including investors. 

Raising Rates into a Recession

The Fed has stated they will not raise the short rate until the unemployment number hits their target of 6.5%. My concern here is that by the time the unemployment number reaches their target, it could very well be near the peak of the current economic expansion. We will have another recession at some point. That is just what happens in the economic cycle. The last thing the central bank should be doing is raising rates headed into a recession. If they wait too long, and we reach the peak of the economic cycle with rates still near zero, what ammunition will the Fed have to help stave off the recession? This would probably be around the same time as QE3 is completely scaled back. 

Additionally, what will the Fed due with all the fixed-income securities it has on its books after QE3 ends. They have indicated they could just let the debt mature, but what would they use to pay off the principal for these securities? They would most likely have to borrow again, starting a vicious cycle. If they are facing this problem near the peak of the economic expansion, they really will have no arrows left in their quiver. The solution for this problem is an economic expansion that is as strong as the 2008 recession was deep. It is very possible we could see this expansion we are currently in last longer than most expect.

Putting it All Together

While the problems I have listed above are something to keep a close eye on, I remain convinced we will see stronger economic growth in the next few years. This should lead to a broad advance in the market as the economy picks up steam. I do not believe tapering QE3 will have a long-term negative impact on the economy. It will raise rates that are being kept artificially low which in turn would steepen the yield curve and increase the velocity of money. As far as a conflict in the Middle East goes, this is a threat we have been living with for many decades and it has not stopped the stock market from hitting all-time highs again and again. There will always be some event that seems like it will cause a sustained downturn in the market, but that has always been the case. This is what makes investing so difficult to stomach sometimes. However, history teaches us the market, the economy, and people are resilient. If you can deal with the downs, the ups should more than make up for it. 


About Mitch Zacks

Mitch is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Zacks Investment Management. He wrote a weekly column for the Chicago Sun-Times and has published two books on quantitative investment strategies. He has a B.A. in Economics from Yale University and an M.B.A. in Analytic Finance from the University of Chicago.


Mitch also is a Portfolio Manager for the Zacks Small Cap Core Fund ( ZSCCX ).

To contact us by mail:
Zacks Investment Management
Attn: Wealth Management Group
One South Wacker Drive, Suite 2700
Chicago, IL 60606

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.


    To contact us by mail:
    Zacks Investment Management
    Attn: Wealth Management Group
    One South Wacker Drive, Suite 2700
    Chicago, IL 60606
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.
    Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals.
    This communication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or product, and does not constitute legal or tax advice. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee accuracy or completeness. Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is not engaged in rendering legal, tax, accounting or other professional services. Publication and distribution of this article is not intended to create, and the information contained herein does not constitute, an attorney- client relationship. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel..