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Jul 5, 2013

Economix Implications for Monetary Policy: NYT I ALERTS FGC BOLSA - FGC FINANCIAL MARKET; July 05, 2013.



Compiled: July 5, 2013 06:36:47 PM


Implications for Monetary Policy
Even with the better-than-expected jobs report, it may be premature for investors to conclude that a winding down of the Fed’s stimulus program is near, an economist writes.

Economix Understating Job Growth: NYT I ALERT FGC BOLSA - FGC FINANCIAL MARKETS ALERTS; July 05, 2013.


Compiled: July 5, 2013 04:06:44 PM


Understating Job Growth
Most months during the recovery, the Labor Department initially understated job gains. And most months during the recession, the bureau initially understated job losses. What gives?

Stocks rally on jobs report; Dow up 1.5% for week: Wall Street at Close Repor by MarketWatcht; July 05, 2013

By Victor Reklaitis, MarketWatch 
NEW YORK (MarketWatch)U.S. stocks closed with sizable gains Friday following a choppy, post-holiday session, as a stronger-than-expected jobs report helped the main indexes achieve a second up week in a row. 

The S&P 500 SPX +1.02% rose 16.48 points, or 1%, to 1631.89. Financials and industrials performed best, while utilities fared worst and lost ground. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.98% rallied 147.29 points, or 1%, to 15,135.84. American Express Co. AXP +2.32% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM +2.31%  were the top-performing blue chips, climbing 2.3% each. 

The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.04% advanced 35.71 points, or 1%, to 3,479.38. 

The S&P 500 finished above its 50-day moving average, a closely watched chart level, for the first time since June 19. For the week, the benchmark index added 1.6%, while the Dow rose 1.5% and the Nasdaq gained 2.2%. 

With the jobs report out, investors now will focus on the start of second-quarter earnings season and additional news from the Federal Reserve next week. Alcoa AA +1.30% , which rose 1.3% on Friday, will kick off earnings season with its report after the market’s close on Monday. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +2.06%  will deliver their quarterly reports at the end of the week, on July 12. 

“Next week is all about earnings,” Quincy Krosby, market strategist for Prudential Financial, told MarketWatch. She said forecasts “have been brought down markedly,” so they won’t be that hard to beat, but investors will scrutinize revenue growth and guidance to see what they indicate about the U.S. economic recovery and global demand. 

Meanwhile, the minutes from the Fed’s last policy meeting will come out Wednesday. Plus, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech Wednesday. 

On Friday, stocks jumped out of the gate after the U.S. government said the economy added a much-better-than-anticipated 195,000 jobs in June. The main indexes then briefly slid into negative territory in mid-morning trade, but recovered to close at fresh session highs. 

A number of strategists indicated on Friday that they see the Fed starting to curtail its bond-buying program that’s boosted stocks around September. Goldman Sachs economists moved forward their forecast for the beginning of tapering to September from December. Closely followed Fed watcher Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, talked about the forecast on CNBC around 10:30 a.m. 
Eastern time, about when the main indexes turned negative and touched their session lows. 

Treasury prices tanked after the jobs report. “It’s obvious that Treasury traders believe this is enough for the Fed to begin to taper,” Prudential’s Krosby said. 

Stocks are “drifting along and inching up,” said Stephen J. Carl, principal and head equity trader at the Williams Capital Group. He emphasized the low volume on Friday; many investors stayed on vacation Friday after Thursday’s Independence Day holiday. 

“You’re not really seeing a lot of conviction because of this light trading week,” Carl told MarketWatch. 

Composite NYSE volume was 2.63 billion shares and composite Nasdaq volume was 1.25 million shares, roughly 70% of the 30-day moving average in each case. 

Early Friday, stocks futures already had shown solid gains ahead of the June payrolls report, as U.S. markets reacted to the European Central Bank and Bank of England indicating Thursday that their easy-money policies weren’t going away any time soon. 

Stock futures then ramped higher after the jobs data, with Dow futures at one point up more than 180 points.
The government also revised the employment gains for April and May sharply higher. The unemployment rate was flat at 7.6%, missing forecasts for 7.5%. But the jobless rate increased to 14.3% if everyone who wants full-time work but can’t find one is included. 

“While the employment report does send a strong signal over the vibrancy of the domestic economy, few of the impediments previously spotted by the Federal Reserve changed within the report,” said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak, in emailed comments shortly after the report.
Job gains, shown here in a monthly and 3-month view, bolstered U.S. stocks Friday.
Home builders Lennar Corp. LEN -4.02% and D.R. Horton Inc. DHI -3.24% were among the biggest S&P 500 losers on Friday, falling 4% and 3%, respectively. The end of easy-money policies could mean lower demand for home builders, as home loans become more expensive thanks to higher interest rates.
In Europe, stocks closed lower Friday after initially moving higher after the jobs report. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index still finished with a weekly move up of more than 1%.
Asian stocks on Friday strode higher on cues of easier monetary policy from Europe. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +2.08% jumped 2.1%. 

The British pound GBPUSD -1.2122% , which sank more than 1% against the dollar on Thursday on a dovish view of the Bank of England’s policy planning, fell again. The euro EURUSD -0.6301% also fell against the dollar.

Gold prices dropped, while oil prices jumped after news reports the Egyptian government announced a state of emergency in the Suez and Sinai provinces after attacks. Egypt controls the key Suez Canal seaway and an adjacent pipeline used for a significant amount of oil traffic. Egypt has been locked in turmoil for days, with the military ousting the country’s president on Wednesday. 

Victor Reklaitis is a New York-based markets writer for MarketWatch. Follow him on Twitter @VicRek. Laura Mandaro contributed to this report.

Stocks Surge 1% on Strong Jobs Report; Dow Reclaims 15,000 Level: Wall Street at Close Report by CNBC; July 05, 2013.

Stocks jumped in a choppy trading session Friday, extending gains heading into the close, after a strong jobs report indicating an improving U.S. economy offset worries about a sooner-than-expected end to Federal Reserve bond buying.
Name Price Change %Change
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 15135.84
147.29 0.98%
S&P 500 S&P 500 Index 1631.89
16.48 1.02%
NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index 3479.38
35.71 1.04%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed back above the 15,000 level, propelled by gains in American Express and JPMorgan.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were also strongly higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 15.

The S&P 500 finished above its 50-day moving average of 1626. "All week this trendline has held back the bulls," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "Still, the more important area could be the Russell 2000 Index 1,000 region. This area has held as resistance since May and won't go down without a fight."

With those areas breached on Friday, Detrick said "it could signal we could have a strong July rally."
Among S&P sectors, financials and industrials paced the advance, while utilities fell.

Small-cap stocks and regional banks were among the market leaders. "These are the sectors you want to see leadership from," Detrick said, since they are closely tied to the U.S. domestic economy.
Home builders were among the weakest industry groups as investors fret about what higher interest rates will mean for the housing recovery.

For the week, the Dow gained 1.5 percent, the S&P 500 was up 1.6 percent and the Nasdaq jumped 2.2 percent.
90 Seconds with Art Cashin: The 10-Year, the Dollar & Oil CNBC's Josh Lipton and Art Cashin, of UBS, discuss the skeleton crews on trading desks and the yield on the 10-year. There is a risk of higher volatility as people leave for the weekend.
The U.S. economy created 195,000 new non-farm payroll jobs in June, the Labor Department reported, after an upwardly revised 195,000 jobs were created in May. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6 percent as more people entered the labor market.  The jobs report means the economy is improving and it's on track to at least pick up a little bit of momentum, Robert Pavlik, Banyan Partners' chief market strategist, told CNBC. "I think the market is going to continue to move higher even as we approach the July meetings," he said. But as it gets closer to September "the possibility that market gets a little bit worried about the move up in Treasury yields comes back into play." The dollar jumped to a three-year high and 10-year Treasury yields pushed above 2.70 percent given the stronger data and growing anticipation of Fed tapering. Gold tumbled 3 percent. (Read More: Why Higher US Yields Should Cheer Investors)
"Combing through the details of the release, there is not too much to sniff at, and overall, the June report easily gets passing marks," JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a research note, adding "after today's report we are moving to a call for a first reduction in asset purchases at the September FOMC meeting." Markets had been awaiting the jobs report for clues as to when the Federal Reserve would begin reducing its bond purchases. The Fed has said it expects to end its $85 billion monthly asset purchases when the unemployment rate drops to around 7 percent. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, also is now calling for a September tapering. "It's not a done deal. It could still be December," he told CNBC. "But when I take everything together—what they've said, what you've seen in the numbers— September is more likely." While the U.S. central bank may be closer to pulling back on the bond purchases, yesterday, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England offered forward guidance on policy for the first time, and said record-low interest rates would be maintained for a prolonged period. (Read More: July 4: Independence Day for Europe's Central Banks?) Among stock movers, Dell was sharply lower on reports Michael Dell and Silver Lake will not raise their $24.4 billion buyout bid. Attention will turn to corporate earnings next week. Second-quarter earnings season kicks off with numbers from Dow component Alcoa on Monday. Pavlik of Banyan Partners isn't expecting a blowout earnings season. "I think that Q2 earnings season is largely going to be a repeat of Q1 and you will see a good increase in earnings per share, but you're not going to see a tremendous increase in revenue which could create problems for the intermediate term," he said. "But short term, I think the market moves higher." 
By CNBC's Justin Menza. Follow him on Twitter @JustinMenza.

Toronto reviews bid to become yuan currency trading hub: GATA I THE GATA DISPATCH; July 05, 2013.

Toronto reviews bid to become yuan currency trading hub

By Ari Altstedter
Bloomberg News
Friday, July 5, 2013

TORONTO -- Canada's banks are considering a plan to make Toronto the first North American trading hub for China's yuan, joining a global race for a share of trading in the currency of the world's second-largest economy.

Some of Canada's largest banks, insurance companies, and pension funds met with government representatives and the Bank of Canada in Toronto on June 21 to discuss establishing a yuan trading hub, according to the Toronto Financial Services Alliance, an industry group that set up the meeting. Representatives of Chinese banks also attended the meeting, the group said, declining to name them.
"There have been expressions of interest from some companies," said Janet Ecker, president of the finance group, who attended the meeting. "We've seen what's happened in London and Singapore and Hong Kong."

The moves to set up a trading hub in Canada come as an organization representing Frankfurt's financial industry predicts the European Central Bank is nearing a deal with China that will help the German financial center become a European yuan trading hub.

The Bank of England signed a similar but smaller agreement last month, joining other recent additions like Australia, Turkey, Brazil, and South Korea as China pushes for greater use of its currency outside the mainland. To have a trading hub, a country's central bank must have an agreement with China's central bank to swap its currency for yuan.

"By moving early, if in fact it happens, the Canadian financial sector has an opportunity to punch above its weight in currency trading," said Finn Poschmann, an economist at the C.D. Howe Institute, a Toronto-based think-tank. "It's a terrific opportunity for that reason, given the scale of trade between North America and China, and the financial flows that necessarily follow."

The ECB may obtain an agreement with the People's Bank of China that would allow it to exchange euros for up to 800 billion yuan ($130 billion) which it could then lend to companies, according to Frankfurt Main Finance, a lobby group. Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King signed a three-year swap agreement with his Chinese counterpart Zhou Xiaochuan last month that will make 200 billion yuan available.

The agreements provide companies with a safety net that aims to give them more confidence in doing business with their Chinese partners.

"The U.S. has a far more complicated relationship with China," said Adrian Miller, the head of fixed-income strategy at GMP Securities LLC, by phone from New York. "Canada has a natural resource bias, which plays into Canada's game plan as well. So it's an easier sell to go forward with that. That's why I think you're seeing it go there first instead of the U.S."

A representative of Ontario's Minister of Finance attended the meeting as an observer, Scott Blodgett, a spokesman, said in an e-mail. Canada's federal finance department does not comment on individual meetings, spokeswoman Stephanie Rubec said in an e-mail.

"At this point, our members are assessing the proposition, but we have no other information," said Maura Drew-Lytle, spokeswoman for the Canadian Bankers Association, which represents the country's banking industry.

The Bank of Canada doesn't comment on private meetings, Alexandre Deslongchamps, a spokesman, said in an e-mail.

Spokesmen for Canada's five-biggest banks, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, declined to comment.
Fabrice de Dongo, a spokesman HSBC Holding Plc.'s Canadian unit, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Canada's five largest banks, HSBC, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and the Bank of China attended the meeting, the Shanghai Daily reported June 27, citing an unidentified banking industry person aware of the matter.

Canada's trade deficit with China reached C$31.4 billion ($30 billion) in 2012, according to Statistics Canada. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has declared it a national priority to expand energy exports to Asia as it tries to reduce its alliance on U.S. markets.

Harper's government last year approved Cnooc Ltd.'s $15.1 billion takeover of Calgary-based energy producer Nexen Inc. At the same time, the government said it would approve further acquisitions of businesses in Canada's oil sands by government-backed companies only under "exceptional circumstances."

The TFSA's Ecker cites growing trade with China as one reason Toronto, and Canada, would make a good yuan hub, along with the country's large Chinese population.

There were 1.5 million people of Chinese ancestry in Canada as of 2011, or 4 percent of the population, according to Statistics Canada. Toronto is home to 40 percent of the country's Chinese population. By 2031 there will be 2.7 million people of Chinese origin in Canada, or 6.4 percent of the population, according to Statistics Canada projections from 2006.

"Interest has been expressed by people within the industry and we've seen other centers move into this space quite assertively," Ecker said in an interview. "We've certainly been told that some companies are saying, 'Oh, let's take a look.'"

China's Zhou pledged on June 28 to expand cross-border use of the yuan and encourage multinational companies to include the currency in their asset portfolios. China will allow direct trading between the yuan and foreign currencies and push forward on convertibility without giving up control of capital flows, Zhou said.

Switzerland is also seeking to be an offshore yuan-trading center, according to the Swiss Bankers Association, while Banque de France Governor Christian Noyer said in October that Paris has "all the conditions to become the renminbi offshore center of the euro zone." He was referring to another term for the Chinese currency.

"If you think China is going to be a dominant economy and there are going to be a lot of financial transactions in (yuan) you want the ability to trade it," said Nicholas Lardy, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, by phone from Washington. "Everyone's thinking, the train's leaving the station, I better get on it. Even if it's not big right away, everyone thinks there's a first-mover advantage.

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin; July 05, 2013.

ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 05 July 2013

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The eagerly anticipated US jobs report didn’t fail to disappoint on Friday, smashing consensus forecasts and sparking a surge in the dollar; but equity markets in the UK quickly dropped into the red with mining stocks providing a drag as metals prices fell.

With an impressive 195,000 non-farm payrolls added to the US economy in June - well ahead of the 165,000 forecast - and previous months’ numbers being revised higher, the Federal Reserve is now widely expected to start scaling back its stimulus programme as early as September.

The FTSE 100 had jumped 3.1% on Thursday on the back of dovish comments by the Bank of England and European Central Bank, as central-bank chiefs Mark Carney and Mario Draghi sought to give more forward guidance on interest rates staying low for the near future. “With stock markets already absorbing the surprise from yesterday’s forward guidance bombshells from Draghi and Carney, the better-than-expected payroll numbers has seen equity markets caught in two minds between the prospect of the imminent prospect of tapering, and the benefits of an economic recovery,” said Senior Market Analyst Michael Hewson from CMC Markets.

Investors cheered the data initially with the London index rising close to 6,500, before quickly erasing gains and slipping into negative territory. The FTSE 100 finished the session down 46 points at 6,376.

FTSE 100: Miners provide a drag as metals prices drop
Mining and metals stocks were under heavy selling pressure on Friday afternoon following a much better-than-expected US jobs report, as a stronger dollar dampened the price of metals across the board. Gold was down 3.3%, silver fell 4.7% and copper dropped 3.6%, with all three commodities trading around a one-week low.

Antofagasta, Fresnillo, Glencore Xstrata, Randgold Resources, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Vedanta were registering heavy falls by afternoon trade.

UBS cut its recommendation for restaurant and hotel firm Whitbread from 'buy' to 'neutral', causing the stock to fall sharply today. The broker raised concerns with the firm’s international hotel expansion and said that it was too early to gauge the financial impact of its new concept for compact city-centre hotels.

Defence and aerospace engineering group firm Meggitt was also lower after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from 'buy' to 'hold', citing "insufficient upside" since the share price has surpassed its target.

Heading the other way was real estate group British Land after acquiring a majority of Paddington Central, a, 11-acre mixed use estate in London’s West End. Sector peer Land Securities was also higher.

AIM/Small cap report
FTSE 100 - Risers
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,556.00p +2.03%
Land Securities Group (LAND) 939.00p +1.35%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 123.00p +1.23%
British Land Co (BLND) 591.50p +1.20%
Schroders (SDR) 2,260.00p +1.07%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 372.50p +1.06%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,237.00p +0.81%
Bunzl (BNZL) 1,373.00p +0.81%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 462.70p +0.63%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 3,014.00p +0.63%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Glencore Xstrata (GLEN) 256.85p -6.51%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 784.50p -6.05%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,050.00p -5.84%
Fresnillo (FRES) 886.50p -5.84%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 992.00p -5.34%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,636.00p -4.41%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,217.00p -3.64%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,666.50p -3.64%
Whitbread (WTB) 3,106.00p -2.79%
Melrose Industries (MRO) 264.00p -2.76%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Dunelm Group (DNLM) 1,018.00p +7.16%
Xaar (XAR) 840.00p +6.60%
Barr (A.G.) (BAG) 535.50p +3.98%
Kier Group (KIE) 1,268.00p +3.93%
Enterprise Inns (ETI) 116.00p +3.57%
COLT Group SA (COLT) 104.40p +3.47%
Redrow (RDW) 245.60p +3.24%
Kentz Corporation Ltd. (KENZ) 391.10p +2.89%
Jupiter Fund Management (JUP) 311.50p +2.84%
Worldwide Healthcare Trust (WWH) 1,115.00p +2.77%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 251.60p -6.36%
Polymetal International (POLY) 472.40p -6.18%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 160.40p -5.70%
Carillion (CLLN) 263.10p -4.81%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 284.70p -4.01%
Lonmin (LMI) 270.70p -3.67%
Evraz (EVR) 100.10p -3.38%
Electrocomponents (ECM) 241.90p -3.20%
Chemring Group (CHG) 288.40p -3.09%
Ashmore Group (ASHM) 323.90p -2.97%

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FTSE 100: 0.41%
Dax 30: -0.27%
Cac-40: -0.23%
FTSE Mibtel 30: -0.28%
Ibex 35: -0.62%
Stoxx 600: -0.04%

European equities were mixed after a report showed German factory orders fell unexpectedly in May and before the release of US jobs data.

Factory orders in Europe’s largest economy, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, declined 1.3% from April when they fell a revised 2.2%, the Economy Ministry in Berlin revealed on Friday. Economists had forecast a rise of around 1.2%.

It signalled an uncertain recovery in Germany, a day after the European Central Bank (ECB) said it would keep interest rates low for an extended period of time.

ECB President Mario Draghi said Europe’s economy remains on the downside but reiterated his prediction for recovery later this year.

In the US, investors are awaiting reports on the nation’s jobs market.

US non-farm payrolls for June were expected to rise, according to economists ahead of the Labor Department report to be released later Friday.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 7.5% in June, matching April’s four-year low and down from 7.6% in May.

Heineken, Sky Deutschland

Heineken ’s shares fell after JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded its rating of the stock to ‘underweight’ from ‘neutral’.

Sky Deutschland rallied after Goldman Sachs Group added the German pay-TV provider to its ‘conviction buy' list.

Seadrill advanced after Bank of America Corp. recommended investors ‘buy’ shares of the offshore deepwater drilling company.

British Land jumped after announcing it has bought assets in “income enhancing” London estate Paddington Central.

US Market Report
Stocks pare gains
Dow Jones Industrials: 0.10%
Nasdaq Composite: 0.24%
S&P 500: 0.22%

US stocks are now paring the early gains which ensued following the release of a much better than expected June report on non-farm payrolls. In parallel, long-term bond yields are surging and crude futures are again rising.

Non-farm payrolls rose by 195,000 in June, modestly ahead of the 175,000 average estimate from economists. More poignantly, numbers for both of the previous months were revised higher and, critically, average hourly earnings jumped by 0.4%, making for a solid gain.

The unemployment rate remained steady at 7.6%. Economists at Barclays are describing the report as ‘solid.’

Worth calling attention to is the unfolding situation in Egypt which is pressuring crude prices higher. That follows reports of at least one deadly shooting at a pro-Morsi rally and calls - somewhat surprisingly - from some leading Egyptian figures, who are often considered ‘moderates’, for international support for the army´s intervention, point out analysts at Digital Look.

Shares of the major US banking groups, one of the clearest beneficiaries of the steepening yield curve, are outperforming today.

Tesla Motors is an early gainer after announcing strong orders data in Hong Kong.

US 10 year Treasury yields are now rising by 20 basis points and standing at 2.70%.

Front month West Texas crude futures are up by 0.53% to $101.78 on the NYMEX.

S&P 500 - Risers
Lincoln National Corp. (LNC) $38.14 +3.14%
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JNS) $8.58 +2.75%
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) $30.44 +2.53%
Keycorp (KEY) $11.72 +2.49%
Ingersoll Rand Ltd. (IR) $57.33 +2.43%
Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW) $12.17 +2.35%
Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) $21.90 +2.34%
Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) $222.58 +2.34%
Apache Corp. (APA) $82.06 +2.28%
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) $97.76 +2.04%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) $27.06 -6.75%
Lennar Corp. Class A (LEN) $34.03 -3.73%
D. R. Horton Inc. (DHI) $20.20 -3.63%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) $68.21 -3.56%
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) $15.51 -3.54%
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) $18.49 -3.45%
Ventas Inc. (VTR) $66.99 -3.22%
HCP Inc. (HCP) $43.73 -2.67%
Phillips 66 Common Stock (PSX) $56.25 -2.48%
Health Care REIT Inc. (HCN) $64.50 -2.36%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $96.19 +1.54%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $53.53 +1.44%
American Express Co. (AXP) $75.60 +1.36%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $28.01 +1.30%
General Electric Co. (GE) $23.13 +0.97%
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) $12.95 +0.94%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $52.81 +0.78%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $46.91 +0.77%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $87.31 +0.61%
3M Co. (MMM) $110.08 +0.58%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $24.35 -0.99%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $50.71 -0.59%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $81.52 -0.40%
Alcoa Inc. (AA) $7.68 -0.39%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $99.97 -0.38%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $63.47 -0.22%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $33.94 -0.20%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $78.49 -0.10%
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $65.50 -0.06%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) $222.58 +2.34%
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) $97.76 +2.04%
Cerner Corp. (CERN) $49.54 +2.02%
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) $52.92 +1.80%
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) $50.76 +1.50%
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) $55.78 +1.29%
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Class A (NWSA) $15.06 +1.24%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $14.31 +1.20%
Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) $33.89 +1.19%
Western Digital Corp. (WDC) $63.95 +1.17%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Randgold Resources Ltd. Ads (GOLD) $60.89 -5.54%
Dell Inc. (DELL) $13.04 -2.03%
Sba Communications Corp. (SBAC) $73.16 -1.11%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $24.35 -0.99%
Staples Inc. (SPLS) $15.75 -0.94%
Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) $3.45 -0.58%
Facebook Inc. (FB) $24.38 -0.57%
Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM) $52.80 -0.43%
Vodafone Group Plc ADS (VOD) $28.62 -0.35%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $419.68 -0.27%

Broker Tips
Meggitt, Whitbread, Gold miners
Deutsche Bank has cut its recommendation for aerospace and defence engineering group Meggitt from 'buy' to 'hold' ahead of its first-half results next month, saying it sees 'insufficient upside' from current prices.

"Reflecting the recent re-rating of defence peers and ongoing optimism around the commercial aerospace cycle, we have raised our sum-of-part derived target from 495p to 525p. Despite this increase and the appeal we still see in Meggitt’s business model and management’s track record, there is now insufficient upside remaining to merit a 'buy', hence we downgrade to 'hold'."

UBS has cut its recommendation for restaurant and hotel firm Whitbread from 'buy' to 'neutral' following the company's investor day, citing insufficient share price upside.

UBS said that it is too early to gauge the financial impact of its new 'hub' compact-hotel concept, and its international hotel plans still need to be delivered. The broker has raised its target from 2,900p to 3,150p, but downgraded the stock's rating, given that its valuation is at the top end of the historic range.

Nomura has upgraded its ratings for gold mining peers African Barrick Gold, Polymetal and Randgold Resources, saying it sees a short-term rebound in gold prices.

The broker says that gold prices have reached an equilibrium stage of $1,230 an ounce and a potential rally to $1,500 should lift gold equities in the near term. However, Nomura still remains bearish on gold prices from the fourth quarter through to 2014, estimated an equilibrium price of just $1,070 an ounce

DAX a laggard as Europe’s big week nears a finish: European Markets at Close Report by MarketWatch, July 05, 2013.

By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch 
MADRID (MarketWatch)Europe stock markets were hanging onto weekly gains on Friday, with the exception of Germany, but better-than-expected U.S. jobs data was cutting into a prior-session rally driven by signs major European central banks will keep their monetary policies accommodative. 

The Stoxx Europe 600 index XX:SXXP -1.18%  dropped 1.1% to 288.97, with losses building as Wall Street fell after that U.S. jobs data. On Thursday, the index closed up 2.3%, or 6.69 points, to 292.15, which was the biggest one-day point and percentage gain since April 23. The index is looking at around a 1.4% gain for the week. 

ECB’s Draghi turns even more dovish
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi turned even more dovish than the market expected at his latest press conference. He warned that rates could fall some more and suggested that any exit from the current accommodative stance is “very distant.” 

Among movers, Sky Deutschland AG DE:SKYD +3.50%  jumped over 3% after Goldman Sachs added the pay-TV provider to its conviction-buy list. Shares of Seadrill Ltd. NO:SDRL +0.68% rose over 1% after an upgrade to buy from neutral at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, triggering a more than 2% gain for the Stoxx Europe 600 heavyweight offshore driller.

Data from the U.S. showed 195,000 jobs were created in June -- beating forecasts -- and employment gains in the prior two months were stronger than originally expected. Wall Street stocks fell as investors fretted upbeat jobs data would keep the Federal Reserve on track for tapering sooner rather than later. 

And some investors also thought Europe markets perhaps overdid the rally on Thursday that came after ECB President Mario Draghi said in a press conference that interest rates in the region will remain low or go even lower for an “extended period of time.” 

Ahead of him, the Bank of England, with new Governor Mark Carney at the helm, triggered the biggest rise for U.K. stocks since the autumn of 2011 after a statement from the central bank — in itself an unusual move — also eased fears stimulus will be taken away soon. 

Coming off the most on Friday, the German DAX 30 index DX:DAX -2.36% dropped 2.2% to 7,816.44, more than giving back the prior-day rally of 2%-plus. With every stock in the red, losses for big names such as Bayer AG DE:BAYN -2.99%  and BASF SE DE:BAS -3.18% , off nearly 3% each, took a chunk out of the index. 

Data out of Germany on Friday also showed much weaker-than-expected manufacturing orders, after a sharp drop in domestic orders disappointed those hoping to see signs of a domestic investment recovery. 

Heino Ruland, a strategist at Ruland Research in Eppstein, Germany, said nothing that Draghi said Thursday surprised him very much and it’s very likely that the markets got ahead of themselves. But also, he said German stocks have been suffering from a string of weak data out of China. 

“The next growth scenario is going to be the recovery of ailing member states of the euro area, and it’s going to pass by Germany,” said Ruland who added that that means investors may be paying more attention to automakers in Italy than Germany, where Volkswagen AG DE:VOW3 -1.56%  has “a pocket of strength that’s looking questionable.” 

Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari U.K., agrees that there may have been too much excitement on Thursday from those central bank meetings. He said Draghi gave no real news in hindsight, noting that the central bank failed to give a benchmark — date, unemployment target or growth target — along with its lower rate assessment. 

“I think what we’ve seen once again is a commitment to nothing, and the markets have just taken the bait,” he said.

Bloomberg  Image
Job seekers wait to interview with company representatives at the Hire Live Job Fair in El Segundo, California, U.S., on Wednesday, June 26, 2013.
Peripheral markets mostly showed losses, with Portugal PSI 20 index PT:PSI20 -0.45%  down 0.8% to 5,383.88 after gaining 3.7% on Thursday. 

Portugal’s Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho appears to have kept the coalition government from collapsing, though many say the government remains in a fragile state after four days of political upheaval sparked by the departure of two ministers. 

The Spanish IBEX 35 index XX:SXXP -1.31%  fell 1.6% to 7,875.50, with Banco Santander SA ES:SAN -2.64%   SAN +0.62%  off 1.5%. BBVA SA BBVA -1.91%   ES:BBVA -2.44% fell 1.7%. 

Greek stocks stood out with a gain. The Athens Composite Index GR:GD +2.32%  rose over 2% to 841.23, but was still looking at a 1.2% weekly loss. 

Mining stocks weighed on London. BHP Billiton PLC UK:BLT -3.64%   BHP -1.13% fell 3.7%, Glencore Xstrata PLC UK:GLEN -6.52%  tumbled near 6% and Rio Tinto PLC UK:RIO -4.41%   RIO -2.39%  dropped 4%. The FTSE 100 index UK:UKX -0.72%  fell 0.7% to 6,377.08. The index rallied 3% on Thursday, its biggest percentage gain since late 2011 on Thursday. 

Goldman Sachs said in a note Friday that it recommends going long U.K. equities via the Dec. 13 future for a target of 7,100, saying the economy looks to be on an upswing and monetary policy looks set to ease further. It also sees the euro area stabilizing in the second half of the year. 

Barbara Kollmeyer is an editor for MarketWatch in Madrid. Follow her on Twitter @MWBarbaraKollmeyer.

European Stocks Close Lower After US Jobs Report: European markets at Close Report by CNBC; July 05, 2013.

European shares increases losses on Friday afternoon after a better-than-expected U.S. employment report, having turned briefly higher on the news.
  Name Price   Change %Change Volume
FTSE FTSE 100 Index 6394.78
-26.89 -0.42% 541568956
DAX DAX Index 7836.15
-158.16 -1.98% 92571024
CAC 40 CAC 40 Index 3772.26
-37.05 -0.97% 78621539
IBEX 35 IBEX 35 Idx 7894.50
-107.50 -1.34% 173608840

The U.S. economy added 195,000 new non-farm payroll jobs in June after a 195,000 increase in May, the Labor Department reported. Economists polled by Reuters were anticipating the creation of 165,000 new jobs in June.

The unemployment rate came in unchanged at 7.6 percent.

(Read More: Hiring Improves, but Don't Expect a Big Jobs Number)
The Federal Reserve has said it expects to end its $85 billion monthly asset purchases when the unemployment rate drops to around 7 percent, so Friday's report sparked fears the central bank could start tapering its purchases sooner-than-expected.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 Index moved higher immediately after the report, but fell quickly back into negative territory. It closed provisionally down 1.2 percent at 1,165.44.
(Read More: Job Growth Posts Large Gain in June; Rate Holds)
In Europe, developments in Portugal remained firmly in focus. The country's prime minister said on Thursday that he had assurances from his junior coalition party that the parties will reach an agreement on government stability, but the full details still need to be agreed to end a political crisis that threatens the country's bailout program. Portugal's PSI 20 Index was flat on Friday.

Investors also kept a close eye on Greece, which is hoping to reach a deal with its lenders to free up another trache of aid by Monday.

Olli Rehn, vice-president of the European Commission, said that Greece's last substantial tranche of aid could be made in instalments, keeping the pressure on Greece to keep up with the bailout demands of international lenders.

The environment for Asia's Internet businesses: The Economist Group I Management Thinking Digest.

Asia has close to 50% of the world's Internet users, some of the fastest broadband speeds globally, and the most rapid growth in mobile broadband of any region worldwide. So where are the Asian Internet giants that should be visibly competing with the likes of Amazon and Facebook? In Good to grow?, an EIU report sponsored by the Asia Internet Coalition, we consider the business environments in which Asian Internet companies operate, and the effects these have on their ability to grow.

On our blog site, Ross O'Brien, the Hong Kong director of the Economist Corporate Network, welcomes our new robot overlords and argues why we should be in favour of greater automation in China's manufacturing.

Finally, we have released the second article in the Business across borders series sponsored by Reed Smith. Troubled waters considers the risks of international commercial disputes and the growing international threat to commercial intellectual property.

Denis McCauley
Editorial Director, EMEA


ADVFN III World Daily Markets Bulletin; July 05, 2013.

ADVFN III World Daily Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 05 July 2013

US Market
Stocks Likely To See Early Strength On Upbeat Jobs Data

Stocks are likely to move to the upside at the start of trading on Friday following the release of a better than expected jobs report. The major index futures are currently pointing to a sharply higher open for the markets, with the Dow futures up by 148 points.

The upward momentum for the markets comes following the release of a report from the Labor Department showing stronger than expected job growth in the month of June. The report said non-farm payroll employment increased by 195,000 jobs in June, matching the revised job growth seen in May.

Economists had been expecting employment to increase by about 160,000 jobs compared to the addition of 175,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. Despite the stronger than expected job growth, the unemployment rate came in unchanged at 7.6 percent. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 7.5 percent.

While the strong job growth is likely to generate optimism about the economic outlook, the report does not seem to have raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's stimulus program due to the unemployment rate holding steady. The Fed has indicated that it will maintain its asset purchase program at the current pace until the unemployment rate drops closer to 7 percent.

Buying interest may also be generated in reaction to the remarks European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivered while the U.S. markets were closed on Thursday. In a press conference after the ECB announced its decision to leave interest rates unchanged, Draghi said rates are likely to remain low for an extended period of time.

After moving to the downside at the start of trading on Wednesday, stocks moved mostly higher over the course of the abbreviated session. The major averages climbed well off their early lows and into positive territory on the day.

The major averages gave back some ground going into the close but managed to hold on to modest gains. While the S&P 500 inched up 1.33 points or 0.1 percent to 1,615.41, the Dow rose 56.14 points or 0.4 percent to 14,988.55 and the Nasdaq climbed 10.27 points or 0.3 percent to 3,443.67.

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly higher during trading on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index surged up by 2.1 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index jumped by 1.9 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets are turning in a mixed performance on the day. While the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index has risen by 0.5 percent, the German DAX Index is down by 0.5 percent and the French CAC 40 Index is down by 0.1 percent.

In commodities trading, crude oil futures are climbing $0.74 to $101.98 a barrel after advancing $1.64 to $101.24 a barrel on Wednesday. Gold futures, which rose $8.50 to $1,251.90 an ounce in the previous session, are sliding $28.50 to $1,223.40 an ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 100.04 yen compared to the 100.04 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Wednesday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.2816 compared to yesterday's $1.2914.

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TSX May Extend Gains Amid Mixed Jobs Data
Canadian stocks are poised for a positive open Friday amid mixed commodities and jobs data from both sides of the border. While Canada reported flat growth in employment, data from the U.S. revealed that employment increased by more than anticipated in the month of June.

In corporate news from Canada, financial services company Pacific & Western Credit Corp. said Thursday that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Pacific & Western Bank of Canada, has filed a preliminary prospectus in connection with a reasonable "best efforts" marketed offering of common shares of the Bank.

Airlines services provider Air Canada said Thursday that its system traffic rose 2.1 percent to 5.09 billion revenue passenger miles in June from 4.99 billion revenue passenger miles in the same month last year.

Diversified natural resources company Altius Minerals Corp. reported a wider fourth-quarter net loss of C$3.97 million or C$0.14 per share compared to a loss of C$2.62 million or C$0.09 per share last year.

In economic news Statistics Canada said employment was virtually unchanged and the unemployment rate remained at 7.1 percent in June. Economists expected 7500 job losses in June and the unemployment rate to remain at 7.1 percent.

European Market
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European Markets Mixed Ahead Of U.S. Jobs Report
The European markets are trading mixed on Friday, as some markets in the region paused for breath following yesterday's rally on the back of indication from the European Central Bank and Bank of England that they were in no hurry to taper stimulus.

Apprehensions remained in investor minds ahead of the key jobs data from the U.S., after factory orders declined unexpectedly in Europe's growth engine.

Germany's factory orders declined unexpectedly in May largely due to subdued demand from euro area, a report from the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology revealed Factory orders slipped 1.3 percent from a month ago, when it was down 2.2 percent. It was forecast to grow 1.2 percent.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that possible policy slippages, including at the European level, may pose downside risk to Italy's economic outlook and could undermine market confidence in the sovereign.

Any backtracking on the policy could also intensify funding pressures on the banks and tighten credit, the Washington-based lender said in a regular review report on Thursday.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index of eurozone bluechip stocks is losing 0.28 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 50 index, which includes some major U.K. companies, is falling 0.01 percent.

The German DAX and the French CAC 40 are down modestly. The UK's FTSE 100 is gaining 0.5 percent and Switzerland's SMI is up around 0.3 percent.

In Frankfurt, ThyssenKrupp and Linde are losing nearly 1 percent. Air Berlin is up 1.2 percent. The airline reported traffic data for June. Sky Deutschland is climbing 4.6 percent. The stock was raised to ''Conviction Buy'' from ''Buy'' at Goldman Sachs.

In Paris, Schneider Electric is falling 2.1 percent and Alstom is falling 2 percent. Deutsche Bank cut Alstom to ''Hold'' from ''Buy.'' Cement giant Lafarge and builder Bouygues are losing 1.9 percent each. Lenders Societe Generale and BNP Paribas are gaining.

In London, Travis Perkins is climbing close to 3 percent. Aberdeen Asset Management and Reckitt Benckiser are rising 2.1 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

Precious metals miner Fresnillo is declining 3.7 percent and restaurant group Whitbread is falling 2.7 percent. Antofagasta, Glencore, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are losing between 2.6 percent and 1.8 percent.

Asia Market
Asian Stocks Follow European Markets Higher
Asian stocks rose broadly on Friday, tracking sharp gains in Europe the previous day after the European Central Bank and Bank of England both surprised investors by issuing forward guidance on interest rates to shield themselves from a potential pullback of the Federal Reserve's stimulus efforts.

ECB President Mario Draghi said that euro area interest rates will likely remain low for an 'extended period' of time and that the exit from emergency measures was a very distant prospect, soothing investors rattled by the Portugal political crisis and speculation about an early paring back of the Fed's massive bond purchases.

Mark Carney, in his first meeting as governor of the Bank of England, signaled that the central bank is in no hurry to lift record-low borrowing rates or unwind stimulus. The major European averages in Germany, France and the U.K. jumped 2-3 percent on Thursday following the central banks' announcements.

Tokyo stocks posted solid gains, buoyed by a stronger dollar on optimism over the U.S. economy as investors waited for employment data due out later in the global day. The Nikkei average jumped 2.1 percent to a five-week high, while the broader Topix index rallied 1.5 percent. Exporters benefited from the yen's weakness, with Fanuc, Toyota Motor and TDK adding 2-4 percent.

Steelmaker JFE Holdings rallied 3.1 percent, newly-listed Suntory Beverage & Food gained 1.7 percent and Seven & i Holdings closed 1.3 percent higher after reaffirming its outlook for the full year. Nippon Paper Industries declined 2.6 percent on a Nikkei repot that the company's consolidated operating profit for the June quarter fell 30 percent due to a weakening yen.

In economic news, a leading indicator of Japan's business conditions grew faster than expected in May, preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office showed. The composite leading index rose to 110.5 from an upwardly revised 107.7 in April. The coincident economic index, which measures the current activity, moved up slightly to 105.9 from a revised 105.1 in April, while the lagging index, a measure of firms' past performance, dropped to 108.9 from 109.2 in the previous month.

Australian shares extended gains for a second consecutive session, although trading volume remained relatively thin following the Independence Day holiday in the U.S. markets overnight. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 rose 47 points or nearly a percent to 4,842. Global miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto rose about a percent each, while lenders ANZ, Commonwealth, NAB and Westpac closed up between 0.7 percent and 1.5 percent. Echo Entertainment tumbled 5.2 percent after the company lost out to James Packer's Crown on plans for billion-dollar luxury projects in Sydney.

On the macroeconomic front, Australia's construction sector activity continued to decline in June, but at a slowest pace in four months, a report from the Australian Industry Group and the Housing Industry Association revealed. The AiGroup/HIA performance of construction index rose by 4.2 points from a month earlier to 39.5 in the month, with the apartment, house building and commercial construction sectors showing pronounced improvement.

South Korea's Kospi average closed 0.3 percent lower at 1,833 after Samsung Electronics issued a weaker-than-expected earnings forecast for the second quarter. Samsung shares fell 3.8 percent. The smartphone leader said it expects second-quarter operating profit of 9.5 trillion won, up 47 percent from 6.46 trillion won in the year-ago period, helped by growth in sales of its flagship Galaxy S4 smartphones.

New Zealand shares rose, with gains in higher-yielding stocks lifting the benchmark NZX-50 index up 0.7 percent to a one-month high. Chorus, which has a dividend yield of about 10 percent, rose 1.9 percent, while property stocks DNZ Property Fund, Property for Industry, Goodman Property Trust and Kiwi Income Property Trust gained 1-2 percent.

Xero jumped 4.9 percent to a fresh record high and Fletcher Building advanced 1.5 percent. Rakon soared 17 percent after selling a majority stake in its Chinese subsidiary Rakon Crystal to Chinese-listed firm ZheJiang East Crystal Electronic. Among those that fell, Pumpkin Patch and Freightways lost 1-2 percent.

Elsewhere, India's Sensex and Indonesia's Jakarta were up about 0.7 percent each, Malaysia's KLSE Composite was edging up marginally, Singapore's Straits Times was up 0.8 percent and the Taiwan Weighted average rallied 1.4 percent. Malaysia's exports declined more than expected in May on reduced shipment of palm oil, crude petroleum and electrical products, data released by the Department of Statistics revealed. Exports decreased 5.8 percent from a year earlier compared to the expected decline of 3 percent.

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Crude Steady Above $102
The price of crude oil was moving higher Friday morning as traders await cues from the jobs data due out later today. Light Sweet Crude Oil futures for August delivery, added $0.87 to $102.11 a barrel.

Wednesday, during trading hours, the EIA said that US crude oil inventories dived 10.30 million barrels and gasoline stocks shed 1.70 million barrels in the weekended June 28. Analysts expected crude oil inventories to dip only by 3 million barrels last week.

This morning the U.S. dollar advanced toward a fresh 6-week high versus the euro and jumped toward a four-month high against sterling. The buck was steady around its one-month high versus the Swiss franc and the yen.

In economic news, Germany's factory orders declined unexpectedly in May largely due to subdued demand from euro area, a report from the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology revealed. Factory orders slipped 1.3 percent from a month ago, when it was down 2.2 percent. It was forecast to grow 1.2 percent.

Meanwhile, Swiss consumer prices declined less than expected in June, a report from the Federal Statistical Office showed. The consumer price index fell 0.1 percent year-on-year in June compared with forecast for a 0.4 percent decline. This followed a 0.5 percent drop in May and 1.1 percent fall in June 2012.

Traders will look to the jobs data for the month of June from the U.S. Labor Department, due out at 8.30 a.m ET. Economists estimate non-farm payroll gains of 161,000 for June, slower than the 175,000 pace witnessed in the May. Specifically, private payrolls are expected to have expanded by 175,000 compared to 178,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 7.5 percent.
Gold Down Ahead Of Jobs Data
The price of gold was moving lower Friday morning, with the US dollar trading steady versus a basket of currencies ahead of the release of jobs data.

Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, lost $15.70 to $1,236.20 an ounce.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged at 964.69 tons.
Elsewhere, the prices of silver and platinum were moving lower in morning deals.