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Aug 5, 2010

FGC BOLSA - FGC FINANCIAL MARKETS: MarketWatch-Industry- Financial Services .- Fannie Taps Treasury Again After Quarterly Loss. August 5th., 2010






INDUSTRY- FINANCIAL SERVICES



 Fannie taps Treasury again after quarterly loss
 
By Alistair Barr MarketWatch


Fannie Mae asks the Treasury for another $1.5 billion after the mortgage giant reports a quarterly loss. See full story

Mutual Funds Weekly: Fund investors can learn from old world Europe

 
By MarketWatch


European-stock mutual funds have rallied sharply over the past several weeks, breathing life into a part of the world that many investors had written off just a couple of months ago. See full story


Mining Interactive : Tasman_Norra_Karr_Final_Results_Spring_Drill-Program_–_ Further_Thick_Intervals_of_HREE_and_Zirconium. August 5th., 2010


August 5, 2010

TASMAN METALS LTD.
TSXv - TSM; Frankfurt - T61 (WKN A0Y GN1); Pinksheets – TASXF

"The Tasman Metals Rare Earth Story"

NORRA KARR RARE EARTH (REE) PROJECT, SWEDEN
FINAL RESULTS FROM SPRING DRILL-PROGRAM RETURNS FURTHER THICK INTERVALS OF HEAVY RARE EARTH ELEMENTS AND ZIRCONIUM

Including 138m at 0.44 % TREO, 2.03 % ZrO2 with 62.3 % HREO (NKA10021); and
22.0m at 0.70 % TREO, 1.72 % ZrO2 with 48.1 % HREO (NKA10026)

Most significantly, all 26 drill holes from this first drill-program at Norra Karr intersected REE-Zr mineralization

Mark Saxon, Tasman Metals President & CEO:
"The release of this set of drilling results completes a very encouraging first program on this exciting new Scandinavian rare earth element and zirconium project.

We are very pleased with the progress made to date at Norra Karr, having been able to work quickly and cost effectively due to the excellent infrastructure, including all year 2 wheel drive road access.  We are now interpreting results from the drilling program, undertaking mineralogical work with Dr Tony Mariano to identify REE-bearing minerals, and preparing to place the contract for the calculation of the first mineral resource estimate.  Due to Norra Karr’s very high HREO enrichment and its uniqueness in mainland Europe, the project has strong potential to provide a secure future source of rare earth elements and zirconium for the European region.”

Dear Friends:

Above Mark Saxon mentions the mineralogical work that Dr Mariano is undertaking.  Dr Mariano is certainly well qualified to do this work.  He has nearly 50 years experience in the study and discovery of REE’s across more than 50 countries in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia and is a widely published and renowned expert in the REE field.

On August 3, 2010 Stockwatch (www.stockwatch.com) reported the following:
“James Dines, in the July 23, 2010, issue of The Dines Letter [www.dinesletter.com]  refreshes his buy of Tasman Metals Ltd. Mr. Dines includes the company in his "rare earth stocks" from which he expects high risk, high potential capital gains. He says Tasman is a natural recommendation for its rare earth potential because its Scandinavian mines are likely to receive Europe's support”;

Well known Mining Analyst Mr. John Kaiser Editor & Publisher of Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online (www.kaiserbottomfish.com) and a leader in analysing rare earth element companies also has Tasman on his Buy list.

Yes, many analysts including Brien Lundin (www.goldnewsletter.com) and Mickey Fulp (www.mercenarygeologist.com) have been following the “Tasman REE Story”, and bringing investors eyes to the Company.

Tasman Metals is starting to receive a serious following which I also can attest to because of the many phone calls I am receiving from interested parties in the Company and from the discussion I am having here in Europe with investors.
Stay Tuned - - for the next Chapter in the Tasman Metals Rare Earth Story!!!
Regards,
Nick L. Nicolaas
Mining Interactive "Ahead of the Pack"
Acronyms used:
REE rare earth elements, lanthanum to lutetium by atomic weight plus yttrium
LREE light rare earth elements, lanthanum to samarium by atomic weight
HREE heavy rare earth elements, europium to lutetium plus yttrium
TREO rare earth elements, calculated as oxides, including lanthanum to
            lutetium plus yttrium
HREO heavy rare earth elements, as per HREE above, calculated as oxides
LREO light rare earth elements, as per LREE above, calculated as oxides
Strategic Metals, Including Rare Earth Elements and their common usage:


MiningInteractive Videos
View Here
Stay tuned for the most recent updates on Tasman Metals and other leading mining companies through the MiningInteractive Video Interviews.
Nick L. Nicolaas
(604) 657-4058

nick@mininginteractive.com

Mining Interactive: Mawson Completes Purchase of The High Grade Alto Quemado Gold-Copper Project in Peru. August 5th., 2010


August 4, 2010

MAWSON RESOURCES LTD.
MAWSON COMPLETES PURCHASE OF THE HIGH GRADE ALTO QUEMADO GOLD-COPPER PROJECT IN PERU

  • The Company has now completed the agreement to purchase 93% of a company which holds the option to acquire 100% of the Alto Quemado gold-copper project in the mineral-rich Southern Peru Mineral Belt
  • Alto Quemado is a significant new discovery in PeruTwo styles of mineralization have been identified at Alto Quemado:
    -a high-grade near-term production gold target; and
    -a Large tonnage copper-gold porphyry target
States Michael Hudson, Mawson President & CEO:
“Alto Quemado is an exciting new high-grade structural gold and porphyry copper discovery in Peru with both short term and large scale potential.  Mawson has deployed an exploration team to site for the next 4 months to map and sample the project with the aim to identify the highest priority drill targets.  Despite being subject to small scale mining for 6 years the project has only been tested by a small amount of modern exploration and never a drill hole.  Once we have finalized our agreements with AQMC, we look forward to advancing environmental permitting to enable the project to be drill tested in 2011.”
Dear Friends:
The Mawson train is loaded with METAL & ENERGY projects and it is accelerating full steam ahead.  The Company is the leading Scandinavian uranium exploration company, with advanced projects in Sweden and Finland and well positioned to provide Europe with the option to fuel its future.  Areva NC holds 11% of the Company and provides Mawson with an active technical partner.

As aforementioned, the Company has completed the purchase of the gold-copper ‘Alto Quemado’ project in Peru.

And - - let’s not forget its new discovery ‘Rompas’ in Northwest Finland, a project with Bonanza Grades and 150 sites identified to date over a 6km strike-length where 40 assays produced up to 373 oz/ton gold and 43.6% uranium (not a bad start I say).

A strong cash position of approximately C$9.0 million and with all this only 42,697,253 shares outstanding.
Mawson, a mining house to be reckoned with!

Stay Closely Tuned - - There is much-much more to come from Mawson!!!

Regards,
Nick L. Nicolaas
Mining Interactive "Ahead of the Pack"



METALS AND ENERGY IN SCANDINAVIA.


MiningInteractive Videos
Click Here

Stay tuned for the most recent updates on Mawson Resources and other leading mining companies through the MiningInteractive Video Interviews.
Nick L. Nicolaas(604) 657-4058
nick@mininginteractive.com

CNBC : Evening Brief : BP Reports It Has Completed Sealing Off Well With Cement. August 5th., 2010


LATEST STORIES


»click here to see the latest top stories from CNBC.com



LATEST VIDEO

Obama at Chicago Ford Plant
President Barack Obama addresses auto workers at a Ford plant
in Chicago, and defends his support of American car manufacturers.
» Watch Video

Inside July Retail Sales
Monthly same-store sales are hitting the tape, with Dana Telsey,
Telsey Advisory Group CEO.
» Watch Video

Peebles' Betting on Vegas
Don Peebles is putting his chips on the table in Vegas,
with Don Peebles, the Peeble Corporation chairman & CEO.
» Watch Video 

Abundance of Regulation Big Concern: StanChart
Jaspal Bindra, group executive director and Asia CEO of
Standard Chartered Bank, says his largest concern for the
future is the abundance of regulation in the banking space.
He speaks to CNBC's Sri Jegarajah and Martin Soong.
» Watch Video

RTTNews : Evening Market Wrap.- Stocks End Mostly Lower Ahead Of July Jobs Report - U.S. Commentary. August5th., 2010

Evening Market Wrap Thu Aug 5 17:01 2010 

Commentary

Aug 5, 2010 Stocks End Mostly Lower Ahead Of July Jobs Report - U.S. Commentary Stocks ended Thursday's session mostly on the downside, although selling was limited by hesitation ahead of tomorrow's landmark jobs data. Some downside in today's session was generated by a surprise jump in weekly jobless claims and lower than expected comparable store sales growth by a number of major U.S. retailers. Full Article

Economic News

Aug 5, 2010 Weekly Jobless Claims Show Unexpected Increase In a report that is likely to lead to renewed concerns about the job market, the Labor Department said Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly showed a moderate increase in the week ended July 31st. The report showed that initial jobless claims rose to 479,000 from the previous week's revised figured of 460,000. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected jobless claims to edge down to 455,000 from the 457,000 originally reported for the previous week. Full Article

Earnings News

Aug 5, 2010 Viacom Earnings Rise On Growth At Cable Networks Media giant Viacom Inc. (VIA) on Thursday announced a quarterly profit that rose from last year, helped by lowered expenses. The company's bottom line topped expectations. Revenues were flat for the owner of the Paramount Pictures movie studio and cable networks like MTV and Nickelodeon. Fewer DVD titles led to a top-line slide at its filmed entertainment unit, while its cable networks benefited from a rise in advertising revenues. Full Article
Aug 5, 2010 DirecTV Scores In Latin America During World Cup - Update Digital television entertainment provider DirecTV (DTV) on Thursday reported a 33% surge in profit for the second quarter, buoyed by double-digit revenue growth and better margins. The company enjoyed significant growth in Latin America, thanks in part to demand for World Cup coverage. Adjusted earnings matched analysts' consensus estimate, while revenues topped their expectations. Full Article
Aug 5, 2010 Hyatt Hotels Posts Quarterly Profit, Helped By Overseas Demand Hyatt Hotels Corp. (H) announced a profit for the second quarter, reversing a loss seen last year, when massive special charges weighed on results. The company saw improved demand for rooms, especially in international markets. Full Article

Corporate News

Aug 5, 2010 Target July Comps Up 2%, Sales Rise - Update Discount-store operator Target Corp. (TGT) announced Thursday that sales at established stores increased 2% in July, falling short of analysts' estimates. While the result was in line with the company's own prediction, an increase of 2.3% was expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Full Article

Forex Top Story

Aug 5, 2010 Dollar Stuck In The Mud Versus Resurgent Euro The dollar stayed near its multi-month lows on Thursday, as Europe's top central banker offered upbeat comments on the region's economic recovery. With all of Europe's major banks passing a recent stress test and the bond market snapping up sovereign debt in places like Greece and Spain, the dollar has given back a huge portion of its springtime rally versus the euro. Full Article

Political News

Aug 5, 2010 Schumer Says WikiLeaks Doesn't Deserve Media Protection Senator Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., announced Wednesday that he is drafting new language to prevent WikiLeaks from qualifying for protection under media shield legislation after the whistleblower website published thousands of classified documents related to the war in Afghanistan. Full Article
Aug 5, 2010 Senate Votes To Confirm Kagan As Supreme Court JusticeAs anticipated, the Senate voted Thursday to confirm Solicitor General Elena Kagan as a Supreme Court Justice, succeeding retired Justice John Paul Stevens. The 63 to 37 vote largely came down along party lines, with only five Republicans voting in favor of Kagan's confirmation. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., was the only Democrat to vote against her. Full Article
Aug 5, 2010 Geithner Says Health Reform Strengthens Medicare, Social SecurityTreasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, acting in his role as the chief trustee of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, said Thursday that the administration's health care reform bill enhances the solvency of both. Geithner noted that the Affordable Care Act did not solve the looming problems that will see both funds running out of money in coming years, but he did say it enacts some "very positive" developments for Social Security and especially Medicare. Full Article

NYT:Afternoon Business News Update. August 5th., 2010



BUSINESS:

Turkey and Israel Do a Brisk Business

By DAN BILEFSKY
Despite their strained politics, business between Turkey and Israel continues apace, albeit discreetly.

Greece Gets Good Progress Report From Lenders

By SUZANNE DALEY and NIKI KITSANTONIS
International lenders cleared the way for Athens to receive the next piece of its bailout package, while Spain saw its borrowing costs drop.

Sales Were Sluggish in July for Retailers

By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD
The weak spending raises worries about the health of the back-to-school season as Americans step up saving amid a stalling recovery.

Trichet Offers Some Upbeat Comments About Europe

By JACK EWING and JULIA WERDIGIER
The head of the European Central Bank added, however, that growth in Europe was occurring in "an environment of uncertainty."

Indonesia Takes on an Attractive Sheen

By AUBREY BELFORD
After years of being known for inefficiency, corruption and instability, Indonesia is emerging from the global financial crisis with a surprising new reputation -- economic golden child.

FOX BUSINESS NEWS: Senators Introduce Bill to Kill SEC FOIA Powers. August 5th., 2010


SEC Headquarters 276
Senators Introduce Bill to Kill SEC FOIA PowersFour lawmakers introduced a bill to strike the provision in the Dodd-Frank Act that potentially gives the SEC powers to deny FOIA requests.
THE MOST POWERFUL NAME IN BUSINESS NEWS

Could the Uber-Rich Pay Our Debt?

Is the Work Broke? Could Warren Buffett swing the tab to pay off the national debt? What about all our credit card bills? FBN explores.

Shaky Data Keep Bulls at Bay

Stocks closed just slightly lower following an unexpected jump in initial jobless claims.

FinReg Brings More Changes at Goldman

The bank plans to shift its principal strategies business into a fund that raises outside money.

Target CEO: 'I Am Genuinely Sorry'

Target CEO Greg Steinhafel issued an apology for the retailer's controversial $150,000 political donation.

FGC BOLSA - FGC FINANCIAL MARKETS: U.S. Markets Snapshot At Close. . August 5th., 2010


 U.S. MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT CLOSE

Market Snapshot
Index Last Change %Change
DJIA 10,674.98 -5.45 -0.05% Hilighted
Nasdaq 2,293.06 -10.51 -0.46%
S&P 500 1,124.18 -3.06 -0.27%
FOX 50 812.60 -1.67 -0.21%
DIJA Chart

MarketWatch: Personal Finance Daily. August 5th., 2010

MarketWatch
Personal Finance Daily
AUGUST 05, 2010

Thursday's Personal Finance stories

By MarketWatch



Don't miss these top stories:
The recession's hit to payroll tax receipts has worsened the short-term outlook of the Social Security trust fund -- but the long-term prognosis is unchanged from a year ago, according to the Social Security trustees' report released today. Read the Social Security report.

Payroll tax receipts will fail to cover benefit payments in 2010 and 2011, so those benefits will have to be paid out of the trust fund. Then, taxes will cover payouts from 2012 through 2014, but starting in 2015, the program will run deficits every year.

But the long-term outlook is unchanged from last year: The trust fund will be exhausted in 2037. At that point, the program will be able to pay only 78% of promised benefits.

So, what's going to happen to your benefits? It seems highly likely the federal government is going to have to cut benefits, one way or another, and hopefully sooner rather than later so the change can be put in place slowly, without dramatic upheaval. The longer the politicians delay, the worse the picture gets, and the more likely it is they'll have to institute more-draconian cuts, or apply them to people closer to retirement.

That doesn't mean you won't get your Social Security benefits. It does mean that people in their mid-50s or younger likely won't get the same size checks as their parents are getting now -- and that's especially likely for people with higher-than-average incomes. That is, if and when the government trims benefits, it's likely that lower-income people will be a lot less affected than other workers.

What will benefit cuts look like? Who knows? It could be a change in the benefit formula or a change in the "normal" retirement age.

Yet another reminder that there's no time like the present to consider ramping up your savings rate, just a notch ... or five.

-- Andrea Coombes , Personal Finance editor
Health reform extends Medicare fund: report

Medicare's finances have improved thanks to the landmark health-care reform law signed by President Barack Obama, but the recession has worsened the short-term outlook for Social Security, trustees of the federal entitlements said in annual reports Thursday.
See story on health reform extends Medicare fund: report.


THE JOB MARKET

Top Biden aide on jobs, unemployment benefits

Jared Bernstein, chief economic adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden, talks to MarketWatch about when private-sector hiring will pick up and the case for extending unemployment benefits.
 Watch video on top Biden aide on jobs, unemployment benefits.


Jobless claims rise

The number of people applying for initial unemployment benefits jumped 19,000 to 479,000 in the latest week to the highest level since early April, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
See story on jobless claims rise.


HEALTH CARE

Progress for people with disabilities -- but not everywhere

Jim de Jong remembers when his buddies took him bowling when he first got out of a rehabilitation hospital after suffering an accident that left him paralyzed from the waist down 34 years ago.
See Kristen Gerencher's Vital Signs on jobs still a hurdle for disabled Americans.


Disabled Americans still struggle to find jobs

Ken Altenburger went blind 20 years ago, about the same time the Americans with Disabilities Act was enacted. He talks with Kristen Gerencher about how the ADA has helped him, and the ways in which the law's promise has yet to be fully realized.
 Watch video on disabled Americans still struggle to find jobs.


SAVING & SPENDING

Talk is cheap, but words can make you buy

You might not recognize this yet, but you probably have an ecochondriac or a tweeva in your life. You may even have had a piece of mancake.
See Jennifer Waters's Consumer Confidential on words that can make you buy.


REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates hit record low for seventh straight week

Fixed-rate mortgage rates continued their fall to record lows this week, following the release of second-quarter GDP data, Freddie Mac reported on Thursday.
See story on mortgage rates hit record low for seventh straight week.


INVESTING

Who wins and who loses as wheat prices spike

A ban on Russian wheat exports rippled through shares of U.S.-based agricultural and food companies Thursday as investors weighed the impact of Moscow's four-month moratorium.
See story on who wins and who loses as wheat prices spike.


ECONOMY & POLITICS

Bank-reform law may be watered down, Dodd says

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Wednesday he is worried that the congressional intent of some key aspects of the new, sweeping bank-reform law will be distorted as regulators write rules based on the statute.
See story on bank-reform law may be watered down, Dodd says.


Judge overturns California same-sex marriage ban

A judge toppled California's ban on same-sex marriage Wednesday, ruling Prop. 8 unconstitutional under the due process and equal protection clauses. Catherine Carlock speaks with people celebrating, and protesting, outside San Francisco's courthouse.
 Watch video on judge overturns California same-sex marriage ban.


Federal judge overturns same-sex marriage ban

U.S. District Court Judge Vaughn Walker on Wednesday ruled California's voter-approved ban on same-sex marriages is unconstitutional.
See story on federal judge overturns same-sex marriage ban.

 

FGC BOLSA - FGC FINANCIAL MARKETS : MarketWatch - Industry Internet





INDUSTRY - INTERNET



Google, Verizon Web traffic talks stir speculation
 
By John Letzing MarketWatch


Google Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. are in talks about how operators such as Verizon might manage traffic generated by firms such as the Internet giant, stirring speculation that Google may be pondering a tie-up that would mark a more nuanced approach to so-called network neutrality. 

Real Clear Politics.: August 5th., 2010

Real Clear Politics Thursday

Can Washington Be Tamed? - Michael Medved, USA Today
Tea Bags, Wind Bags, and Moneybags - Ed Kilgore, The New Republic
Missouri is an Ominous Sign for Dems - James Taranto, Wall Street Journal
Voters Unhappy, But Dems Will Keep Control - Brent Budowsky, The Hill
Does Obama Get It? - Susan Estrich, Creators
Mosque is No Way to 'Build Bridges' - Thomas Kidd, USA Today
Sweeping Victory For Same-Sex Marriage - Andrew Cohen, Politics Daily
Why Should We End Racial Preferences? - Michael Moynihan, Reason
The Great Guy Theory of History - Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal
Charlie Rangel is No Crook - Eugene Robinson, Washington Post
Cap and Trade: It's the Cost, Stupid - Vincent Carroll, Denver Post
Look Who Is Back on the Campaign Trail - Joshua Green, Boston Globe
Illogical Immigration - Victor Davis Hanson, RealClearPolitics
GOP Attacks the Fourteenth Amendment - E.J. Dionne, Washington Post
Chavez Shows How Censorship is Done - Francisco Toro, The New Republic
The Unaffordability of Endless War - Steve Chapman, Chicago Tribune
Wiki Espionage - Tony Blankley, RealClearPolitics

Editorials

Show Me ObamaCare - Wall Street Journal
Ruling Changes Debate Over Gay Marriage Forever - Los Angeles Times
SEC Secrets - Chicago Tribune
Drain the Swamp - Miami Herald

Fx360: Katy Lien .- Will Non-Farm Payrolls Save the Dollar? August 5th., 2010



Over the past 2 months, foreign exchange traders have dumped dollars aggressively on fears that the slowdown in the U.S. economy will last longer than previously thought, forcing the Federal Reserve to increase monetary stimulus. The mere prospect of the U.S. central bank restarting their Quantitative Easing Program, has dealt a huge blow to confidence in the U.S. economy. However traders are holding out hope that Friday’s non-farm payrolls release will show strong private sector job growth, eliminating the need for immediate stimulus.  As you can imagine, the outlook for the dollar as well as the market’s expectations for Tuesday’s FOMC announcement hinges upon Friday’s payrolls report. Although the U.S. economy is expected to report another month of net job losses and the unemployment rate is expected to rise due to a reduction in Census workers, U.S. companies should have continued to hire. In order to be a savior for the dollar, private payrolls would need to rise by more than 90k. Otherwise, the market’s fears about a slower recovery will be verified, giving traders a stronger reason to dump the dollar.
Since the government started to hire Census workers, foreign exchange traders have learned to look beneath the headlines because the net change in private sector payrolls is more important than the net change in non-farm payrolls, which is distorted by temporary government hiring and firings. Therefore even though non-farm payrolls are expected to fall by 65k, traders are going into the payrolls report with optimism because 90k private sector jobs are expected to be created in the month of July. However given the proximity of the private payrolls forecast to the prior month’s gain of 83k and the broad of range of estimates, the risk of a surprise on Friday is high. Of the 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the most optimistic is calling for private payrolls to rise by 150k (Deutsche Bank) while the most pessimistic is calling for only a 30k gain (Standard Chartered Bank).   With the net NFP forecast, economist estimates range from -160k to +10k.
What are Market Expectations?  
Here are the forecasts for the July Non-Farm Payrolls Report:
Most Signs Point to Stronger Payrolls
Every month we attempt to predict the surprise of non-farm payrolls by taking a look at a hearty list of labor market reports that are released before NFPs. This month, most of the leading indicators that we follow for non-farm payrolls points to stronger private sector payrolls growth in the month of July. According to Challenger Grey and Christmas, planned layoffs declined by 57.2 percent last month which was more than the amount of layoffs planned for the month of June. Private sector payroll provider ADP also reported an increase of 42k private sector jobs in July compared to 19k the previous month. Considering that ADP undershot private payrolls 7 out of the last 10 months, there should have been a healthy gain in private sector jobs last month. However the U.S. government is still expected to have reduced the number of Census workers by approximately 150k, which will put net job growth at negative levels.  The expansion in the service sector also accelerated last month with the non-manufacturing ISM index rising from 53.8 to 54.3. More importantly, the employment component of the report jumped above 50 which indicate that more companies in the U.S. are adding rather than reducing workers.  Consumer confidence has deteriorated across the board, but that may be simply because the improvement in the labor market has been excruciatingly slow.
Arguments for Better Non-Farm Payrolls:
1.     Employment Component of Service Sector ISM Back in Expansionary Territory
2.     ADP Reports Larger Private Sector Payroll Growth
3.     Challenger Reports Larger Decline in Planned Layoffs
4.     Employment Component of Manufacturing Sector ISM Rises
5.     4-Week Average Claims Have Decreased
6.     Continuing Claims Down from Prior Month
Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls:
1.     Census Job Reduction Could Account for as much as 150k jobs
2.     University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Since November
3.     Conference Board Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest Since February
4.     Monster.com Employment Index Drops 3 Points from June
How to Currencies and Equities Could React to Payrolls
Of the -65k job losses forecasted for July, 155k is expected to be government jobs. The private sector is expected to add 90k jobs. With those figures in mind, here are the possible reactions to the NFP report:
Scenario 1: Non-Farm Payrolls Turn Positive, Private Sector Payrolls Exceed 125k
The sticker shock of positive non-farm payrolls with strong additions in the private sector should trigger a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar. The market needs a surprise in both the headline and private sector numbers to reverse the dollar negative sentiment in the market. USD/JPY will have the cleanest reaction to this report but high beta currency pairs such as the AUD/USD and NZD/USD should also strengthen. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD could receive a boost from the improvement in risk appetite.
Scenario 2: Non Farm Payrolls Fall by 65k, Private Sector Payrolls Below 90K
If overall job growth meets expectations and private sector job growth misses, the impact on the dollar will depend upon the size of the disappointment. Private sector job growth of less than 50k would be very bearish for the U.S. dollar while job growth closer to 90k should only elicit a small reaction. Should the change in non-farm payrolls and private sector payrolls disappoint, the impact on the dollar would be far significant and would likely cause the greenback to sell off aggressively if the print is weak enough.
If private sector payrolls beat expectations and private sector payrolls miss, the private sector number would overshadow the net non-farm payrolls change. Finally, if both non-farm payrolls and private sector payrolls meet expectations, then it should be quiet day in the FX markets.
ADP versus Private NFP

ISM Employment versus NFP
The rise in the employment component of ISM signals stronger private sector payroll job growth

How to Trade Non-Farm Payrolls
Non-farm payrolls are a notoriously volatile piece of data to trade as revisions and expectations also impact the market’s reaction. Traders should remember that the first reaction to the non-farm payrolls report is usually not the one that lasts for the rest of the trading day and the best currency pair to trade is USD/JPY because of its logical reaction to U.S. data. Even though the direction associated with each month’s move has not always been the same, the immediate reaction is typically not sustained, and eventually reversed into a more substantial move that lasted for the course of the trading day. So when it comes to trading non-farm payrolls, it pays to wait.
EUR/USD 5 Minute Chart: Intraday move following payrolls report in July:

The Washington Post: Wonkbook.- Stae aid passes Senate, static kill succeeds, no more secrets holds.? August 5th., 2010



Wonkbook: State aid passes Senate; static kill succeeds; no more secret holds?
It's a day of progress in Washington: The Senate has broken a filibuster of the state budget aid package, setting up the House to come back in session to past the final version. Harry Reid has put legislation ending secret holds on the legislative docket for this Congress, and has set a schedule for dealing with the Bush tax cuts. BP's "static kill" has succeeded in closing off the leaking Gulf oil well once and for all. But these days are rare: Just read David Broder today, who joins George Packer is arguing that the Senate's dysfunction has become one of the nation's more pressing issues, if only because it keeps the nation from addressing its other pressing issues.
It's Thursday, and I have a huge iced coffee. Welcome to Wonkbook.
Top Stories
The state aid package broke a filibuster and is headed to the House again, report Lori Montgomery and Jenna Johnson: "House members left town last week, and many rank-and-file Democrats looked forward to the break as a chance to defend dozens of seats at risk in the November elections. But aides said many lawmakers will welcome the interruption, viewing it as a chance to score a fresh legislative victory for teachers and public-service unions, an important Democratic constituency. The House had earlier approved the state aid, though in a different form."
Even David Broder thinks the Senate is broken:http://bit.ly/9IRmpu
The "static kill" procedure has finally ended the Gulf oil spill, report Joel Achenbach and Steven Mufson: "About three-quarters of the nearly 5 million barrels of oil that escaped Macondo has evaporated, dissolved or been dispersed by chemicals, skimmed by boats, burned, weathered and, most important, devoured by the Gulf of Mexico's permanent oil-eating microbial workforce, according to a study released Wednesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Interior Department."
A bill banning secret holds will be on the September agenda for the Senate, reports Giovanni Russonello: "McCaskill wrote a petition against secret holds in April and has collected signatures from more than the requisite 60 senators needed for cloture. But Wyden and Grassley had attempted to expedite the legislation's passage by proposing the bill as an amendment to other legislation measures in the spring. When DeMint tripped them up, they came to Reid to request that he put the bill up as a freestanding vote. Wyden, Grassley and McCaskill said this would be a difficult measure for their colleagues to vote against, which is why they plan to bring the bill forward for a cloture vote and defuse the threat of a filibuster."
The Senate fate of a tax credit extension meant to spur R&D is looking dimmer: http://bit.ly/cvfAaB
Tim Geithner doubled down on the administration's opposition to extending the Bush tax cuts for top earners, reports Brady Dennis: "He also suggested that Republicans are using a misleading definition of 'small business.' According to the GOP's definition, Geithner said, a small business could include partners in a major law firm and directors of a large financial company. 'If you actually want to help small businesses get needed tax relief as opposed to using them as a cover for supporting tax cuts for the most well-off,' he said, 'those people should be supporting Senate passage of the Small Business Jobs Act this week.' The bill is stalled, and aides said it may not pass until after the August break."
Still to come: Geithner favors letting the tax cuts for the rich expire; green groups are pushing for smaller Congressional measures in lieu of cap and trade; 14th amendment opposition spreads; and adorable baby owls.
Economy/ FinReg
Harry Reid has scheduled a showdown on the Bush tax cuts for September, reports Alexander Bolton: "Midwestern centrists such as Sens. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) have called for an extension of all of Bush's tax cuts, including those benefiting individuals earning more than $200,000 and families earning over $250,000 annually...Some liberals balk at the notion that families earning $250,000 or more belong in the middle class. 'Two hundred and fifty thousand dollars? Is that the top 1 percent of Americans, or half a percent? Come on!' said Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa)."
Employers' labor costs are rising even though employee pay is shrinking, reports Sara Murray: "The latest Employment Cost Index showed the cost of wages and benefits was rising slowly. And, seemingly in contrast, BEA's consumer spending report showed declining wages and salaries. 'For employers, labor costs are going up, while many employees are seeing flat or even falling wages and salaries,' Kevin Hallock, director of the Cornell institute, said in a release, '.. while salaries are being squeezed, the cost to employers of providing benefits is rising.' There you have it: employers pay more, employees make less, everyone loses."
Industry groups say the administration's policies will meet their export goals: http://bit.ly/ahXzok
Glenn Hubbard and Hal S. Scott argue FinReg will cause widespread regulatory uncertainty: "Mr. Geithner's 'obligation of speed' ignores the international process for setting capital requirements for financial institutions. These requirements have a major impact on the activities in which financial institutions engage. They operate like a tax, and if they reduce the profitability of a financial product or service, then institutions will gravitate to other businesses. Without knowing what such 'taxes' will be, businesses are naturally reluctant to invest. But capital requirements are not set by the Treasury; they are instead effectively set by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a group of regulators from 27 countries."
Daniel Gross highlights companies who dropped their 401(k) contributions in 2008 only to never bring them back: http://bit.ly/bDXRMB
Howard Gleckman explains what "small business owners" will be hit by the expiration of Bush tax cuts for high earners: "A half million top-bracket filers will report net positive business income averaging more than $700,000. These are the people--not the mom-and-pop business owners-- who would be hit by the expiration of the top bracket tax cuts. Who are they? Many are doctors, lawyers, and investors. Others are very successful entrepreneurs who may own a chain of grocery stores or dry cleaners, or a lot of real estate. Do they fit your image of a small business owner? That, I suppose, is in the eye of the beholders."
Energy
Greens are turning to small-scale issues after cap and trade's failure, reports Coral Davenport: "In the coming year, environmentalists and their friends in Congress are likely to focus on smaller, more bang-for-your-buck environmental bad guys: discrete pollutants produced by only one sector or industry that have an immediate impact on human health -- and are more accessible in the minds of voters...[Sen. Tom] Carper and Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) are teaming up on a bill to crack down on the power plant pollutants sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide, which cause acid rain and mercury, which causes asthma and damage to the nervous system."
Michael Bromwich is declining to give a timeline for ending the drilling ban: http://bit.ly/8XxZZG
EPA greenhouse gas regulations are beginning their roll-out soon, report David Fahrenthold and Juliet Eilperin: "Starting in January, under EPA rules new permits will require the largest factories and power plants to show they have installed the "best available" technology to curb emissions. Smaller sources of greenhouse gases like shops, apartment buildings and bakeries are exempt. That might mean upgrades to make plants burn fuel more efficiently or perhaps to switch from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas."
Little is expected from this year's UN climate conference: http://bit.ly/9ImSpA
Environmentalists are raising doubts about a new study suggesting that much of the oil in the Gulf has already broken up, report Leslie Eaton and Elizabeth Williamson: "In Mississippi, Robert Wiygul, a lawyer involved in several environmental lawsuits against both BP and the government, said that he hope the report's optimistic tone was justified. But, he added, 'any pronouncement that things are okay smacks more of political science than hard science.'...Stan Senner, director of conservation science for the Ocean Conservancy, an environmental group, said he was concerned that the administration's report could mislead Americans into thinking that the fallout from the oil spill was over."
Noah Millman argues that energy innovation is the only way to stop global warming: "Technologies to capture or remove carbon from the atmosphere are going to be an essential part of the any effort to stop global warming. No matter what the United States does - no matter what the entire developed world does - the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is going to go up for the next few decades. In fact, no matter what China and India do, it's going to go up, because the laudable efforts they are going to make to improve the energy efficiency of their economies are going to be swamped by the rate of increase of energy use."
Daniel Gross sees a growing developing country dependence on coal that will be tough to dislodge: http://bit.ly/9dK3wZ
Adorable birds being adorable: Pictures of baby owls.
Domestic Policy
Five GOP senators now back Senate considering of rolling back the 14th amendment's guarantee of birthright citizenship, report Manu Raju and Scott Wong: "Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) on Tuesday added their voices to GOP calls for congressional hearings into altering the Constitution's 14th Amendment, which grants citizenship to U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants...McCain and Sessions join Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) in calling for Congress to examine the issue. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) announced last week that he may propose an amendment to change the Constitution on the matter."
Bobby Jindal -- who may not be a US citizen without birthright citizenship -- expressed support for abolishing it: http://politi.co/9uagDP
EJ Dionne defends birthright citizenship: http://bit.ly/d0ympz
Obama reiterated his support for the Employee Free Choice Act, reports Kendra Marr: "He passed the Fair Pay Act to end wage disparities between men and women doing the same jobs, extended unemployment benefits and reversed Bush-era executive orders designed to bust up organized labor. 'And we are going to keep on fighting to pass the Employee Free Choice Act,' said Obama, as union leaders gave him a standing ovation for his commitment to a controversial 'card check' bill that would make it easier to create unions in non-union workplaces.
Elena Kagan faced the least controversial confirmation process in over a decade: http://politi.co/9MFMwr
Health care reform proponents are rallying around Missouri's vote against the individual mandate, reports Alec MacGillis: "About two-thirds of the voters participated in the Republican Senate primary, and turnout in Democratic strongholds such as St. Louis and Kansas City was among the lowest in the state. And Missouri in general is conservative on health-care policy -- its Medicaid eligibility policy is among the most stringent in the country. The overhaul's backers also pointed to national polls that show an uptick in support for the new law."
Matt Miller makes the deficit hawk's case for lowering the voting age to 10: "Imagine a phalanx of fresh-faced yet fierce 13-year-olds (like those on my daughter's middle school debate team) shaming the adults with the following, for starters: Is it really a national priority to borrow billions more from us to keep taxes for the best-off 2 percent of