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Aug 27, 2009

T H U R S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, August 27, 2009

8:30 AM ET. Aug 22 Jobless Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 565K; previous 576K)

Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected -11K; previous +15K)

Continuing Jobless Claims (previous 6241000)

Continuing Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +2K)

8:30 AM ET. 2 Quarter GDP, prelim

GDP 1st Estimate (expected -1.5%; previous -1%)

Chain-Weighted Price Index (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

PCE Price Index (previous +1.3%)

10:00 AM ET. Aug 17 DJ-BTMU Econ Barometer

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -0.2%)

DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous -9.6%)

10:30 AM ET. Aug 17 EIA National Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 3204)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +52)

11:00 AM ET. Aug Kansas City Fed Mfg Index

Manufacturing Activity Index (previous 2)

Manufacturing Activity Index (6 Mon) (previous 10)

4:30 PM ET. Aug 17 Money Supply

4:30 PM ET. Aug 26 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars

Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 29.94B)

Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 30.7B)

Primary Dealer Borrowings (previous 0)

Primary Dealer Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 0)

Discount Window Borrowings (previous 106.29B)

Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 107.14B)

4:30 PM ET. Aug 26 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars

Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 2.82T)

US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 784.99B)

Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.03T)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it extends this week's
trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last Monday's
low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1761.87 is the next upside
target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 1561.25 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1655.50. Second resistance is the
75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1761.87. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 1615.70. Second resistance is last Monday's low crossing at 1561.25.
The September NASDAQ 100 was down 3.00 pts. at 1633.50 as of 5:55 AM CST. Overnight
action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by September NASDAQ 100 when the day
session begins later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as
it extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish but diverging
hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends this rally, the 38%
retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1044.11 is the next upside target. Closes
below last Monday's low crossing at 975.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1037.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 1044.11. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1010.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1005.53. The
September S&P 500 Index was down 2.20 pts. at 1024.60 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session
begins later this morning.


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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

September T-bonds were mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's
low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If September extends this week's rally, July's high crossing at 121-15 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118-14 would confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 121-07. Second
resistance is July's high crossing at 121-15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
119-27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118-14.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

October crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics and
the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
October extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 67.42 is the next downside
target. Closes below last Monday's low would confirm that a top has been posted. If October
renews the rally off last week's low, June's high crossing at 75.27 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 75.00. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 75.27.
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 70.67. Second support is last week's low crossing at
67.42.

September heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics
and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 178.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If September renews the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 197.38
is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 193.82. Second resistance is
this month's high crossing at 197.38. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 181.68. Second
support is last week's low crossing at 178.40.

September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 199.10. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at
188.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally
off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 208.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Tuesday's high crossing at 206.24. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 208.55. First
support is last Monday's low crossing at 188.65. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at
184.32.

September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be
in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.352 are needed to confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, weekly support
crossing at 2.640 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 2.992. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.352. First support
is Monday's low crossing at 2.726. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.640.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 78.95 would open the door for a possible
test of this month's high crossing at 79.69. If September renews last week's decline, the reaction
low crossing at 77.52 is the next downside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 77.52
are needed to renew this summer's decline. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.95.
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 79.69. First support is last Friday's low crossing
at 77.81. Second support is this month's low crossing at 77.52.

The September Euro was higher due to short covering overnight, as it consolidates some of
Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews last week's rally, this month's high
crossing at 144.490 is the next upside target. Closes above this month's high crossing at 144.490
are needed to renew this summer's rally and would open the door for a possible test of the 75%
retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 148.680. Closes below Wednesday's low
crossing at 142.060 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door
for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 143.780.
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 144.490. First support is Wednesday's low
crossing at 142.060. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 140.450.

The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics
and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September
extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 1.5981 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6554 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6409. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.6554. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.6159. Second
support is July's low crossing at 1.5981.

The September Swiss Franc was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of
Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9354 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this rally, the 75% retracement
level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at .9590 is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Friday's high crossing at .9487. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-
decline crossing at .9590. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9354. Second
support is Wednesday's low crossing at .9330.

The September Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some
of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.46.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 89.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. If September renews the rally off last week's low, this month's high crossing
at 94.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.46.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.95. First support is Wednesday's
low crossing at 90.89. Second support is last week's low crossing at 89.87.

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off this month's low.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible. If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at
.10747 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10527
would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high
crossing at .10712. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10747. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at .10527. Second support is Monday's low crossing at .10520.

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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

October gold was slightly higher in quiet overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 962.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October
renews last Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 926.50 is the next downside target.
From a broad perspective, October gold has been locked in a broad trading range since February.
Closes above 1008.70 or below 870.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of this year's trading
range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 962.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 972.70. First support is
Monday's low crossing at 934.70. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 930.20.

September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last
week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 14.470 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If September renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing
at 13.165 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 14.470. Second
resistance is this month's high crossing at 15.185. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing
at 13.495. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 13.165.

September copper was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally
off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below last week's low crossing at 264.75 are needed to confirm that
a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this summer's rally, the 75% retracement
level of last summer's decline crossing at 323.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Monday's high crossing at 292.10. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 294.90. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 282.25. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 279.88.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

September coffee closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the reaction
low crossing at 11.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.89 would confirm
that a short-term low has been posted.

September cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the
contract high crossing at 32.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.76 would
temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

October sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
October renews this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 26.85 is the next upside target.

October cotton closed lower on Wednesday and below the reaction low crossing at 55.82 as it extended this month's decline.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, June's
low crossing at 52.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.85 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

September corn was fractionally higher in quiet trading overnight. September corn continues to
consolidate above Tuesday's lows as it awaits clearer direction from the other markets. High yield
expectations continue to limit near-term upside potential while the threat of an early-frost provides
light support. However, most traders believe that the corn crop will make it through the season
without significant damage from a freeze. September corn is range bound between $3.04 and
$3.30. Money flow factors could push prices outside of this range regardless of corn supply and
demand fundamentals. Keys factors to watch are the dollar and crude oil. The high-range close
overnight sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and
the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the reaction high crossing at 3.38 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.28. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 3.38 1/2. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.04 1/4. Second
support is psychological support crossing at 3.00.

September wheat was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 4.72. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 4.90 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If
September renews this summer's decline, long-term support crossing at 4.50 is the next downside
target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 4.90 1/2. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.57 3/4. Second
support is long-term support crossing at 4.50.

September Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 5.11.

September Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 5.03 1/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or
is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/4 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If September extends this summer's decline, monthly support
crossing at 4.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.23.
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/4. First support is last
Wednesday's low crossing at 4.87 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.33.

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the narrow trading range of the
past seven two weeks. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are
turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.63 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If September renews this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.95 1/4 is
the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.53 1/4. Second resistance
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.63 1/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at
5.28. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.95 1/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

September soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low. The mid-
range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later
this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 11.13 1/4
is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.38 1/2 would
signal that a short-term high has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 11.08.
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 11.13 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 10.59. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.38 1/2.

September soybean meal was higher overnight and is poised to test June's high crossing at 371.00.
The high-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session
begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 335.30
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing
at 368.30. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 371.00. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 337.10. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 335.30.

September soybean oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of
Tuesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session
begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last week's low, this
month's high crossing at 38.99 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at
35.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while renewing this month's decline.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 37.20. Second resistance is this month's high
crossing at 38.99. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 35.40. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 33.23.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

October hogs closed down $1.25 at $47.05.

October hogs closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off this month's low. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 55.00 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 46.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in
the market. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 48.85. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.00. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 46.20. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 43.57.

February bellies closed down $2.00 at $76.45.

February bellies closed limit down on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Today's decline turned stochastics and the RSI bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's decline, the contract low crossing at 76.00 is the next downside
target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 81.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.85. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.57. First support
is today's low crossing at 76.45. Second support is the contract low crossing at 76.00.

October cattle closed down $1.37 at 87.37.

October cattle gapped down and posted a new low for the month on Wednesday thereby renewing the decline off July's high.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends
the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 85.60 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at
89.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 88.70. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.85. First support is today's low crossing at 87.35. Second support is
June's low crossing at 85.60.

October feeder cattle closed down $0.65 at $99.47.

October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideway to lower prices are
possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at
98.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.88 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted.

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