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May 19, 2009

New Video: How to use intra-day charts to time low risk entry points

Intra-day charts can find low risk entry points in any market.
In this short video, I will show you how to use intra-day charts to time low-risk entry points in any market that has an established trend. In this example, I am looking at a 30-minute chart of July crude oil (CL.N09). With all of my indicators in a positive trend for crude oil, I am looking for low risk entry levels where we can add to, or institute new positions.
This video will demonstrate how to move into a market even if you have missed the initial buy/sell signal.

You can view this new video with my compliments. There are no registration requirements. Please enjoy and give your feedback on our blog. Thank you.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
Co-creator, MarketClub

Fwd: Japan GDP falls less-than-expected 4.0% in first quarter

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Date: Tue, May 19, 2009 at 6:56 PM
Subject: Japan GDP falls less-than-expected 4.0% in first quarter

Japan GDP falls less-than-expected 4.0% in first quarter
5/19/2009 7:54:13 PM

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Fwd: Howard Miller

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Howard Miller <>
Date: Tue, May 19, 2009 at 7:10 PM
Subject: Howard Miller

Roger Wiegand: On the Cusp of a Significant Rise in Gold Tuesday, 19 May 2009 The 'Sell in May' situation could arrive right on time this year, according Roger Wiegand of Trader Tracks, who anticipates the next larger, extended rally in gold this fall. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Roger suggests some alternate market plays for the lean summer months and explains why he believes "the deck is stacked against the stock market" and $1,375 gold appears in the cards. The Gold Report: Roger, last week in your newsletter you talked about seeing two "flying wedges" in the Dow in the technical charts. Do these wedges have anything to do with the proverbial "Sell in May and go away"? Roger Wiegand: Those two little wedges can be either continuation triangles, which go straight sideways, or they can be bull flags, which occur when the end of the pennant points in an upward direction. As I recall, the two wedges we saw were pretty much straight sideways. What had happened is the NASDAQ, the S&P 100, the S&P 500, and a couple of other related indicators all signaled stocks were in a bull situation, and they should continue to climb in price. Then they stopped and prices came back a little bit and we saw one of these wedge-shaped patterns. It was over rather quickly. It was only within a matter of a few days that I expected prices to either take-off again immediately in a new rally or, fall. It fell a little bit but, instead of continuing to sell, it started in another new wedge. This is a highly unusual chart pattern signaling manipulation, in my opinion. What that said to me was we have a technical continuation of the first wedge. In other words, the chart is levitating and prices are peaking. It's wanting to sell, but I suspect there's artificial buying holding it up. Now the other thing that happened in the middle of the second wedge last week was the bank stress tests were announced, which in my view were just a lot of public relations. Looking forward, there are some key dates coming up during the last 10 days of May, starting roughly around May 20. We think from that date forward toward the end of May we'll encounter that "Sell in May" situation. So, after all the machinations and moving around on these prices and the Obama bounce being delayed and so on, it now appears there's a chance that the "Sell in May" situation could arrive right on time. TGR: You said earlier that you're expecting a Dow rise in the fall, but a major selling event in September? RW: Yes, we are looking for a rise in the fall. Right around the first two weeks of September, I think we'll see fresh buying for Dow and index shares. Investors and traders return to work after Labor Day and vacations. Usually when that happens, they begin to buy. Unless there's some really bad news we can't forecast out there right now, I suspect the first few days of this could be strong. However, during the last week of September, moving into October, I think we're looking for a major selling event. That one could be a real attention-getter. TGR: How far do you think it will drop at that point? Will it be testing our 2008 loads? RW: I suspect we could go back as far as Dow 6,500 or 5,600. That's probably the worst case for the fall. I believe the deck is stacked against the stock market and I would be very cautious and expect hard selling at the end of September or, into the first two weeks of October. TGR: What are you suggesting investors do between now and September? Is there a way to play the market before it takes its trip down? RW: I think there is. From a trader's viewpoint, if, in fact, we're correct on the Sell in May event, you could purchase June put options on the S&P minis or, you can trade the S&P mini futures short. We're planning to trade the S&P mini futures short and we'll price those options. Those two trades, held during a quickly falling sell-off, could earn quite a bit of money in a short period of time. TGR: You're recommending some bond plays. Are there any other interesting plays, what you would call "no-brainer plays"? RW: None of them are no-brainers because we can always be surprised. The other trade I find attractive is the Canadian dollar long. We can trade these using ETF shares and buying currency futures. The good news on the Canadian dollar, from what I can see, is that it might rally from 86.00 (on the index) all the way up to 1.00—and perhaps even higher. Now why is that going to happen? I think it could happen because the Canadian dollar is a mining and natural resources currency. Consequently, it's related to most all miners including precious metals, base metals and other commodities. Base metals are not as strong, but they've stabilized. The Canadian dollar is also related to the massive energy sector. So the Canadian dollar should be a very good trade, indeed. TGR: You mentioned earlier in our conversation that a good thing for some investors to do would be to take some profits and to sell into the strength of the market. If we're selling-off our current stocks, where should we put our money? RW: We like grain. Grain has the potential to have another record year. We've had open positions since March on a soybean spread and the first leg of that trade is now up almost 100%. Typically, the way we trade spreads is to take half off the table when we've got 100% or, better in an effort to recoup our initial trade investment holding the balance for higher prices. So far, that trade has gone very well. This is our fourth year on these and they have all been annual winners. Share traders and investors will have several new opportunities buying shares in grain and other food-related stocks. We've recommended some before and will have more of them this year. Shortages and other fundamentals forecast higher grain and food prices. We continue to like gold spreads for December, 2009. Our spread has been in place for weeks now, so I'd have to re-price it in the market for newer entries. We like gold long for December because we have been predicting a forecast price of $1,260 with a newer, higher projection announced six weeks ago to a potential $1,375 on December, 2009 futures. Gold might return to $850 before we settle down here and rally in the next leg, but on a cyclical basis gold has another chance to rally mildly this spring after a minor pullback. TGR: Doesn't gold usually kind of go down or sideways during the summer? RW: Yes, it travels sideways for most of the summer. I would say that's probably our trading action in the next two to four weeks. If gold sells down again, and I think it will, you could see a base-bottom somewhere between $850 and $885 and then a lot of chop and mild rallies. These channeled markets are difficult to trade. And, then into the fall we're looking for the next larger, extended rally. I suspect other markets will have a negative influence on several things and, as a result of that, gold should rise significantly in the fall. I know manipulators will be trying to cap it and keep the lid on, but one of the keys could be a rally price break through $1,007—the former high. Then gold could run away to $1,150 and more, easily up to $1,260. Now the other event, depending upon manipulation, is the chance gold could rise as high as $1,375 on the December futures contract. That remains to be seen. If it happens, we should see several markets' with new pivot moves depending on key events. But, technically, from where we are today and where we've been, $1,375 appears in the cards. TGR: That would be good news for a lot of those junior miners. RW: Absolutely. TGR: Thanks, Roger, as usual, this has been very interesting and informative.

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Howard Miller's afternoon Report: From Global Bullion Trading Group

Good afternoon everyone, The metals complex ended the New York trading day higher across the board on weaker than expected U.S housing data and the corresponding lower Dollar.....Traders were hoping to see some signs of improvement in housing starts and building permits, but got another disappointment....Permits fell to 494,000 and Housing Starts to 494,000 ....Both substantially below Wall Street estimates.....Currency traders correctly suspected as much hammering the Dollar in advance of the release.....The Euro remains firmly higher against our Greenback at $1.3625 up a full cent .......Silver rose 40 cents to $14.20......Gold gained $6.00 to $926.00......Palladium closed at $236.00 up $4.00......Platinum was up $10.00 to end the day at $1140.00.....Silver got an added boost from today's sharply higher copper prices......Volume was moderate at best...While the Dow rallied at the open; it has since gone into a roller coaster mode trading between plus and minus 25...With two left in the trading day the Dow sits at 8511 up 7 points.......As for tomorrow; the calendar will be slow with only the release of the last Fed meeting minutes....On the non economic front we will also get the Weekly Oil Inventories....Speaking of Oil it remains higher by 63 cents at $59.66 per barrel........That's about it......Howard

Time to take another look at the SP 500

The SP 500 index is caught between two trend lines that are the dominant technical indicators right now for this market. If either gives way, it will point the direction of the next major swing.
In addition to the two trend lines that we graphically illustrate in this short video, we also show you two other tech indicators that flashed important signals on Tuesday.

You can view this new video with our compliments. There are no registration requirements. Please enjoy and give your feedback on our blog:
All the best,
Adam HewisonPresident,
Co-creator, MarketClub

Market Watch :" U.S. stocks start lower after housing data weak"

BULLETIN >>U.S. stocks trade lower in opening half-hour; housing-market data get blame5/19/2009 10:08:21 AM Get the latest news on our mobile site: Visit for updates to this story and more

Howard Miller's Morning Report: From Global Bullion Trading Group

Good morning everyone, Metals are trading steady to a shade higher over in London and in advance of today's U.S. housing data.....Silver is up 12 cents at $13.92.....Gold is $922.00 up $2.00 per ounce.....Palladium is $2.00 higher at $234.00.....Platinum is $1144.00 having gained another $12.00 since yesterday's wrap up levels.....In currency trading the Euro has surged by 1.07 cents despite expectations of stronger U.S housing data....Last trade $1.3632...Speaking of the data; April Housing Starts are expected to clock in at 527,000 versus March's 510,000... Building Permits which turn into housing starts are estimated to come in at 530,000 compared to 510,000.....At the risk of sounding like a broken record; bad but better.....This " bad but better" news has been fueling the recent stock market surge.....The Dow soared by 235 points yesterday and appears to be headed for a 59 point higher open today....Crude oil continues to follow the enthusiasm of the stock market .....Yesterday we saw Oil gain $2.69 per barrel....Part of the rise came in response to a Pennsylvania oil refinery fire and militant problems in the Nigerian Oil producing sector of the country.........Today we find Crude up another 87 cents at $59.90......Gasoline has experienced a sharp jump in price over the past month and appears to be headed higher with the summer driving season about to kick off.....In global matters the Indian stock market surged 17% yesterday after communist candidates were overwhelmingly defeated in national elections.....That's about it.....Howard

Fwd: US Business briefing

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Financial Times Briefing <>
Date: Tue, May 19, 2009 at 12:25 AM
Subject: US Business briefing

 View an online version of this email here.
 All times are London time: Tuesday May 19 2009

Advertisement1 - Companies US & Canada
US banks scramble to repay bail-out cash
May 19 2009 00:33
US banks are scrambling to be in the first wave of lenders to repay Washington bail-out funds after the authorities told Wall Street executives they would allow five or six big financial groups to return taxpayers' money before the rest of the industry Read more »

Lowe's sees signs of US consumer revival
May 18 2009 23:44
Lowe's, the US home improvement retailer, said it was seeing signs of renewed confidence in consumers as its first-quarter earnings and sales dipped Read more »

Companies face higher hedging costs
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Companies using trillions of dollars of derivatives contracts to hedge interest rate, currency and commodity price risks could face higher costs under the proposed overhaul of US rules on derivatives, industry officials say Read more »

Ospraie's plans point to hedge fund confidence
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Bankers escape cap on salaries
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Bankers will not have their salaries capped by the Obama administration but they will face changes to executive compensation aimed at discouraging risky short-term bets, Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, said Read more »

State Street begins stock sale
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State Street has begun selling $1.5bn in stock and will sell at least $500m in senior debt as part of the financial services group's plan to repay money received under the US's troubled asset relief programme (Tarp). Read more »

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Hedge fund claims Ken Lewis should have known important financial information about the home mortgage company in the months leading up to BofA's acquiring it Read more »

AIG plans $5bn IPO for Asian arm
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Anger at a proposal to swap bonds for equity is putting the carmaker's future under threat, writes Nicole Bullock Read more »

M Stanley approved alleged insider trade
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Morgan Stanley compliance officers approved the buying of shares by an investment banker who is now at the centre of an insider dealing trial in Hong Kong, a court was told Read more »

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Gata Dispatches:"Gata board member interviewed on gold,silver

Submitted by cpowell on 07:37PM ET Monday, May 18, 2009. Section: Daily Dispatches 10:34p ET Monday, May 18, 2009Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):GATA board member Adrian Douglas, publisher of the Market Force Analysis financial letter (, was interviewed for a half hour yesterday by about the gold and silver markets, and you can listen to it here: POWELL, Secretary/TreasurerGold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *Help keep GATA goingGATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code.
Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:
http://www.gata.orgTo contribute to GATA, please visit:
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
7 Villa Louisa RoadManchester, Connecticut06043-7541 USA

Market Watch Bulletin"Outlook lifts Asia oil shares"

To read full coverage of this report please click:

Gata Dispatches: "Brazil and China work Together tp replace dollar"

Submitted by cpowell on 07:03PM ET Monday, May 18, 2009. Section: Daily Dispatches By Jonathan WheatleyFinancial Times, LondonMonday, May 18, 2009 PAULO, Brazil -- Brazil and China will work toward using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil's central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president.The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world's leading international currency.Mr Lula da Silva, who is visiting Beijing this week, and Hu Jintao, China's president, first discussed the idea of replacing the dollar with the renminbi and the real as trade currencies when they met at the G20 summit in London last month. An official at Brazil's central bank stressed that talks were at an early stage. He also said that what was under discussion was not a currency swap of the kind China recently agreed with Argentina and which the US had agreed with several countries, including Brazil."Currency swaps are not necessarily trade-related," the official said. "The funds can be drawn down for any use. What we are talking about now is Brazil paying for Chinese goods with reals and China paying for Brazilian goods with renminbi."Henrique Meirelles and Zhou Xiaochuan, governors of the two countries' central banks, were expected to meet soon to discuss the matter, the official said. Mr Zhou recently proposed replacing the US dollar as the world's leading currency with a new international reserve currency, possibly in the form of special drawing rights (SDRs), a unit of account used by the International Monetary Fund.In an essay posted on the People's Bank of China's website, Mr Zhou said the goal would be to create a reserve currency "that is disconnected from individual nations." In September, Brazil and Argentina signed an agreement under which importers and exporters in the two countries may make and receive payments in pesos and reals, although they may also continue to use the US dollar if they prefer.An aide to Mr Lula da Silva on his visit to Beijing said the political will to enact a similar deal with China was clearly present. "Something that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago is a real possibility today," he said. "Strong currencies like the real and the renminbi are perfectly capable of being used as trade currencies, as is the case between Brazil and Argentina."In what was interpreted as a sign of Chinese concern about the future of the dollar, the governor of China's central bank proposed in March that the US dollar be replaced as the world's de-facto reserve currency. In an essay posted on the People's Bank of China's website, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank's governor, said the goal would be to create a reserve currency "that is disconnected from individual nations" and modelled on the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights, or SDRs. Economists have argued that while the SDR plan is unfeasible now, bilateral deals between Beijing and its trading partners could act as pieces in a jigsaw designed to promote wider international use of the --renminbi. Any move to make the renminbi more acceptable for international trade, or to help establish it as a regional reserve currency in Asia, could enhance China's political clout around the world.
* * *Help keep GATA goingGATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code.
Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: contribute to GATA, please visit:
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
7 Villa Louisa RoadManchester, Connecticut06043-7541 USA

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