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May 6, 2009

Howard Miller's Report: From Global Bullion Trading Group:

This is an important report about a probable collapse of the US Dollar:

Dollar Hovering at Cliff’s Edge by Rick Ackerman on May 6, 2009 2:52 am Is the dollar about to collapse? We’ll know soon enough, since the U.S. Dollar Index fell yesterday to within a hair of an important correction target that we flagged for subscribers a couple of weeks ago. The actual target was 83.45, a Hidden Pivot support that lay just 0.05 points beneath yesterday’s actual low. We’d expected a bounce from our target, and it came in the form of a sharp rally of 0.81 points off the intraday low at 83.50. However, the surge would need to continue to at least 85.29 by Wednesday’s close to confirm a bullish reversal of the downtrend that has dominated since April 20. On that day, the corrective rally of an even larger downtrend topped at 86.82. dxy-low-must-hold-small1 Putting the dry technical details aside, these numbers are important because they imply that the dollar is hovering20at the edge of a cliff. Indeed, if the 83.45 support were to fail decisively, it would signal more downside over the near term to at least 80.05. A five percent decline may not sound like much, but there’s a strong case to be made that any slippage below 84 will be the beginning of the end for the dollar. If so, we could expect a collapse in Treasury paper that would instantly devastate The Government’s already doomed plan to resuscitate the economy by holding lending rates down across the yield curve. Bond Gains Erased Treasury rates have surged since mid-March, when the Fed announced it would start monetizing debt via direct purchases of Treasury debt. Bond prices staged their biggest rally ever on that day, pushing yields down to their lowest level in many decades. However, any benefits thereof have been erased, since the slippage in bond prices since then has pushed yields above where they were when the monetization scheme was announced. Now, if the Dollar Index were to settle for two consecutive days below 83.45, we would infer the worst. A reprieve would be signaled by a thrust to 85.29, the number mentioned above, but if it doesn’t happen soon, we could probably kiss the dollar good-bye. Looking at a bigger picture, it would take a print at 91.17 - roughly eight percent above these levels - to signal a likely end to the bear market begun in early 2002 from 120.51

Howard Miller's Report: From Global Bullion Trading Group:

Good morning everyone, Metals traded steady to a shade higher in overnight Asian and European activity....As we head into the Wednesday New York trading day we find Silver at $13.46 up 4 cents......Gold is unchanged at $904.00.....Palladium is $4.00 higher at $228.00.....Platinum is $1139.00 up $9.00 per ounce.....Traders from all disciplines are growing increasingly nervous about the next three days when we get the following data:.....Today brings us the latest Private ADP Employment Survey where Wall Street expects to see an improvement in the jobs picture....Look for a loss of 643,000 jobs for the month the April....Terrible ; but consider March lost 742,000......Tomorrow brings the official unveiling of Bank Stress Test results....We already know that Bank America may need $34 billion in additional capital.....Wow.....Expect some fireworks tomorrow....Last but not least; Friday brings us the Monthly U.S. non Farm Payroll Report....Early estimates are calling for a loss of 620,000 jobs versus the prior month's 660,000....These estimates will change as we approach Friday....Meanwhile the Euro is edging lower on the prospects of improving employment data .....Last on the Euro $1.3290 off 35/100ths of U.S cent....Crude oil is edging higher a $54.15 up 31 cents per barrel......Over in the stock market the Dow eased 16 points by yesterday's closing bell and looks about 40 points lower this morning..Traders point to the estimated Bank America results for the early weakness....In other matters the H1N1 Swine Flu has now infected 1490 people with a second U.S death reported in South Texas.....That's about it.....Have a good morning....Howard