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Nov 16, 2016

FRB Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - November 16, 2016

www.federalreserve.gov


Release Date: November 16, 2016
Industrial production was unchanged in October after decreasing 0.2 percent in September. Although the level of industrial production in September was the same as the previous estimate, revisions to the index for utilities raised the rate of change in total industrial production in August and lowered it in September. In October, manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent, and mining posted a gain of 2.1 percent for its largest increase since March 2014. The index for utilities dropped 2.6 percent, as warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced the demand for heating. At 104.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in October was 0.9 percent lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged down 0.1 percentage point in October to 75.3 percent, a rate that is 4.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2015) average.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary

Seasonally adjusted
Industrial production 2012=100 Percent change
2016 2016 Oct. '15 to
Oct. '16
May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p] May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p]
       
Total index 103.7 104.2 104.6 104.5 104.2 104.3 -.1 .5 .4 -.1 -.2 .0 -.9
Previous estimates 103.7 104.2 104.7 104.2 104.2   -.2 .5 .5 -.5 .1    
       
Major market groups
Final Products 100.4 101.0 101.1 101.1 101.0 100.9 -.3 .6 .1 -.1 .0 -.1 .0
Consumer goods 103.2 103.9 104.0 104.0 103.9 103.7 -.4 .7 .1 .0 -.1 -.2 .4
Business equipment 102.1 102.7 102.9 102.6 102.4 102.6 -.1 .6 .2 -.4 -.1 .2 -.2
Nonindustrial supplies 105.1 105.0 105.7 104.9 105.3 105.3 -.3 -.1 .6 -.7 .4 .0 -.7
Construction 109.2 108.4 109.3 108.0 108.5 109.2 -.7 -.8 .8 -1.2 .5 .6 -.4
Materials 105.8 106.5 107.0 107.0 106.3 106.6 .1 .7 .5 .0 -.6 .2 -1.7
       
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below) 102.8 103.0 103.4 102.8 103.0 103.2 -.2 .3 .3 -.5 .2 .2 -.2
Previous estimates 102.8 103.0 103.5 102.9 103.1   -.2 .2 .4 -.5 .2    
Mining 103.8 103.7 104.4 104.4 104.0 106.1 .8 -.1 .7 .0 -.4 2.1 -7.0
Utilities 101.8 104.8 105.1 108.1 104.9 102.2 -.5 2.9 .3 2.8 -3.0 -2.6 -.1
Capacity utilization Percent of capacity Capacity
growth
Average
1972-
2015
1988-
89
high
1990-
91
low
1994-
95
high

2009
low

2015
Oct.
   
2016 Oct. '15 to
Oct. '16
May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[p]
       
Total industry 80.0 85.3 78.8 85.0 66.7 76.3 75.1 75.4 75.7 75.6 75.4 75.3 .3
Previous estimates             75.1 75.4 75.8 75.3 75.4    
       
Manufacturing (see note below) 78.5 85.6 77.3 84.6 63.8 75.6 74.8 75.0 75.2 74.7 74.8 74.9 .7
Previous estimates             74.8 75.0 75.2 74.8 74.9    
Mining 87.3 86.2 83.8 88.6 79.0 80.1 74.1 74.3 75.1 75.3 75.2 77.0 -3.2
Utilities 85.8 93.2 84.7 93.2 78.2 78.5 77.8 80.0 80.2 82.4 79.9 77.8 .7
       
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 86.3 87.6 84.5 90.1 77.0 79.5 75.0 75.2 76.0 76.0 75.8 76.8 -2.4
Primary and semifinished 80.6 86.5 78.1 87.8 63.8 76.4 75.0 75.6 75.9 76.0 75.5 75.1 .9
Finished 77.0 83.4 77.3 80.6 66.6 75.2 75.1 75.2 75.3 74.9 75.0 75.1 .7
r Revised. p Preliminary.
Market Groups
The output of consumer goods decreased 0.2 percent in October. The production of consumer durables advanced 0.5 percent, with nearly all of its major components recording increases. Automotive products posted a gain for the fifth consecutive month, and the index was about 7 1/2 percent above its year-earlier level. The index for consumer non-energy nondurables was unchanged from its September level, with a gain for chemical products offset by losses for other components; the output of consumer energy products fell 3.0 percent. Business equipment registered a rise of 0.2 percent as a result of an increase for information processing equipment; the indexes for transit equipment and for industrial and other equipment edged down. The output of defense and space equipment decreased 0.3 percent. Construction supplies recorded an increase of 0.6 percent, while business supplies recorded a loss of 0.4 percent. The production of materials moved up 0.2 percent, as a broadly based gain in durable materials outweighed a decline for energy materials; the index for nondurable materials was unchanged.
Industry Groups
Manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent in October but was 0.2 percent below its level of a year earlier. In October, the production of durables rose 0.4 percent, the production of nondurables remained unchanged, and the production of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 0.6 percent. Most durable goods industries posted increases; the only declines were registered by aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment and by miscellaneous manufacturing. No major nondurable goods industry recorded a sharp swing in output: Chemicals posted the largest gain, 0.4 percent, while paper registered the largest decrease, 0.8 percent.
The index for mining advanced 2.1 percent in October. Declines in the extraction of crude oil and natural gas were outweighed by gains for most other mining industries, particularly coal mining.
Capacity utilization for manufacturing edged up 0.1 percentage point in October to 74.9 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run average. The operating rate for durables rose to 76.2 percent, the rate for nondurables remained unchanged at 74.3 percent, and the rate for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell to 61.7 percent. Utilization for mining jumped 1.8 percentage points to 77.0 percent; even so, it remains more than 10 percentage points below its long-run average. The rate for utilities fell 2.1 percentage points to 77.8 percent.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization


The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization around the end of the first quarter of 2017. New annual benchmark data for 2015 for manufacturing will be incorporated, as will other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels). The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.
Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2016 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.
Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

G.17 Release Tables:

Summary: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Chart 1: Industrial Production, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization
Chart 2: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Chart 3: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, High Technology Industries
Table 1: Industrial Production: Market and Industry Groups (percent change)
Table 2: Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail (percent change)
Table 3: Motor Vehicle Assemblies
Table 4: Industrial Production Indexes: Market and Industry Group Summary
Table 5: Industrial Production Indexes: Special Aggregates
Table 6: Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
Table 7: Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities
Table 8: Industrial Capacity: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities (percent change)
Table 9: Industrial Production: Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies
Table 10: Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups
Table 11: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry
Table 12: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing
Table 13: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Table 14: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
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Last update: November 16, 2016